Where are the new pilots going to come from???
We have not had open cockpits enroute over the US for over 30 years or so, except for regular Fedex employees who could jumpseat on their company flights and visit cockpits before 9/11, or an airline ferry flight under general aviation rules (Part 91), which can allow a family member onboard to observe through the open cockpit door ; so the question has little meaning here, except for visits at the gate.
When I was in college in the mid 70s, a US Navy P-3 visited a nearby airport and several of us were allowed to sit on the hard floor near the ASW gear, far from the cockpit, as just one of Naval Aviation's recruiting methods.
This ride on the floor listening to those four loud Allison T-56 engines (spinning large props at 1,021 rpm) did nothing at all to interest me in flying, being able to see only the back of the Flight Engineer while bouncing around the pattern in springtime winds. The Navy Squadron or Wing should have allowed groups of two or so to take turns in the cockpit for short periods, and planned flights at a higher, more relaxed altitude (above 10,000') on a short cross-country flight.
When I was in college in the mid 70s, a US Navy P-3 visited a nearby airport and several of us were allowed to sit on the hard floor near the ASW gear, far from the cockpit, as just one of Naval Aviation's recruiting methods.
This ride on the floor listening to those four loud Allison T-56 engines (spinning large props at 1,021 rpm) did nothing at all to interest me in flying, being able to see only the back of the Flight Engineer while bouncing around the pattern in springtime winds. The Navy Squadron or Wing should have allowed groups of two or so to take turns in the cockpit for short periods, and planned flights at a higher, more relaxed altitude (above 10,000') on a short cross-country flight.
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Probably we won't be seeing a shortage of licensed pilots within the next few years. BUT what some airlines are already seeing now is a almost threatning shortage of qualified candidates.
Take the situation in Germany. On the one side pilot schools are churning out record numbers of new pilots, must of them headed directly for unemployment. On the other side Lufthansa is not able to fill its annual demand from the school at Bremen. The school has the capacity to train sufficient numbers of people. But classes even had to be cancelled due to the lack of students. Why? The number of applicants for the initial screening has been dropping lightly over the last few years, but the number of those making it through the screening has dropped dramatically. As someone already mentioned, aviation careers aren't desirable anymore,leading to lack of interest from the young generation. Blame it mostly on short termed greed commonly known as shareholder value, bloating the importance of quarterly profits over long term profitability.
Other airlines are starting to get into the same problems of not being able to attract sufficiently qualified candidates, some are still ignoring it due to a current (short termed) overstaffing, others are already hurting their business opportunities due to capacity constraints. With congestion in the skies due to grow again, demands on qualification will rise, due to the pressure to keep quality (SAFETY) at the same overall numbers (actually it will be increasing with the number of movements going up). The current scheme of private enterprises (pilot schools) luring aspirants into a financial desaster without telling them the truth about their future chances will eventually kill the industry. IMHO we will be seeing the rebirth of sponsorship schemes, as bean counters will sooner or later figure out that a reasonable investment into the future will help keep future costs and losses due to public safety perception low. It all comes down to how much does a hull loss cost and how many can I afford before it affects my balance sheet.
Take the situation in Germany. On the one side pilot schools are churning out record numbers of new pilots, must of them headed directly for unemployment. On the other side Lufthansa is not able to fill its annual demand from the school at Bremen. The school has the capacity to train sufficient numbers of people. But classes even had to be cancelled due to the lack of students. Why? The number of applicants for the initial screening has been dropping lightly over the last few years, but the number of those making it through the screening has dropped dramatically. As someone already mentioned, aviation careers aren't desirable anymore,leading to lack of interest from the young generation. Blame it mostly on short termed greed commonly known as shareholder value, bloating the importance of quarterly profits over long term profitability.
Other airlines are starting to get into the same problems of not being able to attract sufficiently qualified candidates, some are still ignoring it due to a current (short termed) overstaffing, others are already hurting their business opportunities due to capacity constraints. With congestion in the skies due to grow again, demands on qualification will rise, due to the pressure to keep quality (SAFETY) at the same overall numbers (actually it will be increasing with the number of movements going up). The current scheme of private enterprises (pilot schools) luring aspirants into a financial desaster without telling them the truth about their future chances will eventually kill the industry. IMHO we will be seeing the rebirth of sponsorship schemes, as bean counters will sooner or later figure out that a reasonable investment into the future will help keep future costs and losses due to public safety perception low. It all comes down to how much does a hull loss cost and how many can I afford before it affects my balance sheet.
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@RTO
should have explained it a little better. "Qualified" doesn't apply to those fools who try to get a job by not only paying their ATPL, but even for their typerating. With "qualified" I mean those who make it through the strict and demanding screenings of the still respected majors, operating to superior standards.
This is where the gap is widening. Some still think they have to "buy" themselves into a job. Currently a lot of airlines are eagerly picking up these people as they are dirt cheap. Fly for food, typerating paid. CRM capabilities, social thinking, multiple tasking....why ask, he simply doesn't cost the airline money.
But exactly this developement is going to hit back sooner or later. More and more will be discouraged from picking up cockpit careers, due to the burdensome financing of the entire training. JAR-FCL won't make it cheaper. But those scavenging on free meals today will be the first to whine......
should have explained it a little better. "Qualified" doesn't apply to those fools who try to get a job by not only paying their ATPL, but even for their typerating. With "qualified" I mean those who make it through the strict and demanding screenings of the still respected majors, operating to superior standards.
This is where the gap is widening. Some still think they have to "buy" themselves into a job. Currently a lot of airlines are eagerly picking up these people as they are dirt cheap. Fly for food, typerating paid. CRM capabilities, social thinking, multiple tasking....why ask, he simply doesn't cost the airline money.
But exactly this developement is going to hit back sooner or later. More and more will be discouraged from picking up cockpit careers, due to the burdensome financing of the entire training. JAR-FCL won't make it cheaper. But those scavenging on free meals today will be the first to whine......
