How long Till Unmanned Commercial Flights

[Bilbob]

This question Occupies my mind more than it should , but it is something to think about, Im sure it must cross your mind and was wondering if you could put out your thoughts to estimation of the time when pilots will be challenged by Hard-drives ,,

how far away is it ?

I ask in this forum as I am also training and try to forsee what the industry would be like 15 yrs from now,,,

[wbryce]

A long time if even...not in our life time for sure!

[asuweb]

I can't see it happening in our lifetime.

After all, computers already fly the aircraft, and the flight-crew roles have changed from hands-on flying to more of a systems management role. Flight crew really earn their money when dealing with the unforseen, which is something that todays technology can't yet achieve reliably. Also, I'd imagine that lots of SLF probably wouldn't feel too safe without the knowledge that there was a human up front.

[snips]

Mind if I pose a slight tilt on the question.
Which would be automated/unmanned first, Air Traffic or Pilots

[sicky]

if you ask me, autopilot is as unmanned as it is likely to get! I dont see them ever putting 100% unmanned aircraft into operation as if theres a small technical issue it is always better to have somebody on board. The risk of so many lives is not really worth it

[captwannabe]

Even more technology will be used on future aircraft for sure. But the technology for unmanned flight today probably isn't reliable enough for all aircraft. If systems go offline and there is nobody on board, what can you do? SLF are not ready for it. In the future, there might be just one pilot on board (and maybe one on the ground). We have gone from 3 pilots to 2 on most commercial aircraft after all. Computers are only as good as the information we put into them.

[Bilbob]

I agree people wouldnt be keen to fly unmanned But I have a vision of Some sort of ryan air in the future offering really cheap flights to fill the seats EG: imagine if you could fly Lon - LA for £ 75, that would get'em on board I think it will be in our lifetime though maybe not in our working ( professional lifetime )

[captwannabe]

snips,

ATC will more be unmanned sooner than pilots. The ATC system being developed/used in New Zealand doesn't use radio comm as in Europe. It is computer controlled via satellites, even though there are controllers monitoring the aircraft. Pilots don't have to follow the old waypoints system that is used in most parts of the world, and can instead fly direct. They are also developing new technology in Sweden that looks very promising.

You never know what will happen in the future. Look at everything that has happened in aviation in the past 100+ years!

[No Mate!]

Was there ever such a commercial flight where the pilots did all the/or most of the flying?

[Carnage Matey!]

Yeah plenty. Are you going for a record here No Mate? You only joined today yet 18 posts and all of them sh*t.

[PAXboy]

To find your answer, consider this:

• The railways have been around in their present form (steam propulsion on metal rails through to diesel and then electric) for about 200 years.
• Trains run on rails that allow them to go in a predetermined direction and space.
• Trains only move horizontally forwards or backwards.
• Train signalling is computerised.
• Japanese Shinkansen trains travel at speeds of 185 mph (operational not the tests at 275) and the French TGV at 200 mph.
• Train driving is simpler than aircraft and could be automated.
• Trains have a human being as the driver.

Now repeat those points for the way that aircraft operate and decide how long it will be before they are fully automated.

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