A380 Vs B747x ?

[AhDee]

hear that EK is going to order 41 A380, is that true?????

IMO, that would be a hugh risk to have such a large amount of totally new generation a/c that new parking facilities are needed in the airport.

What about B747X? heard that Boeing is goin gto have their new 747 in an extended version?

[aviate1138]

AhDee....

Have you been in a timewarp? The 747X was cancelled around 2001 and then Boeing pretended that they were going to make a just-subsonic Cruiser and then that faded away and now they are thinking about the 7X7 which is a nice looking aeroplane that isn't much, if any faster than anything out there at the moment. Meanwhile the huge Airbus A380 is being built and substantial pieces are in the main construction hall - see Airbus' website.
Boeing having been Top Dawg for years, has changed through bad management and has been floundering but I cannot see them fading away as they have such a great track record. The 7X7 looks remarkably like an Airbus with a DH Comet nose!

Aviate 1138

[hobie]

anyone know when the first flight of the 380 is planned ? .....

[seacue]

My guess is that the first A380 flight will be March 2005 and that it will be at the 2005 Paris Air Show.

[747FOCAL]

aviate1138,

Boeing has announced the 747 Advanced for around 2008 timeframe. It was in the papers a few weeks back. But, it will probably get cancelled as well.

[AhDee]

sorry that the info I got may be a bit out of date. As what 747FCOAL said, Boeing is going to have another new 747 to compete with the A380?

I couldn't find anything about it on the Boeing WebSite.....

[747FOCAL]

AhDee,

What I read in the news was a 747 Advanced that was based on 7E7 technology with 7E7 engines. A complete redesign of the leading edge and flap technologies with Noise and Environment being the driving factors. Accept, unlike the A380 that sacrificed 2% in cruise performance(fuel burn) to make its Noise numbers, the 747 Advanced will actually be better in cruise.

[White Knight]

I'm sure it's 45 A380, not 41 !!!!

Let's face it - Boeing have lost the plot

[AhDee]

wow

747FOCAL,

Thanks for the news!!
IMO, its a great move on the enhancing part for 747 rather than just build a double deck with high running cost and lower compatibilities. for 7E7, Boeing said that she is goin goto save 10-20% on fuel consumption, I really looking forward to see how the new 747 will be like.

by the way, how did you get the news about the advanced 747?

P.S. I love 747 very much as well as the new 7E7

W.K.,

45? that is a hugh number and amount of money to be invested into....... is Emirate going to expand their freight fleet as well as the pax?

[DanAir1-11]

Notso, have to agree entirely, they surely have thrown it all away
747 is seemingly being propped up with new technology, the airframe and dynamics are all circa late 60's are they not? She was truly wonderful in her time, but I fear that her time may be nearing it's end as a primary passenger 'vehicle'. Boeing seem to have missed the bus, pardon the pun. IMHO 7E7 does not offer enough to tempt operators to replace existing newish fleets, as the economy behind such a move seems to be marginal at best, (depending on what equipment it will be targetted at replacing). Airbus really seems to have gained the upper hand with the A380, but I guess they shouldn't count their chickens (probably not the best turn of phrase as chooks don't fly!)
I think we are entering a very exciting, yet uncertain era in aircraft design and construction, with the bean counters well and truly establishing themselves as kings of the castle. From a dreamers perspective!! the sonic cruiser would have been a fantastic aeroplane I am sure, but was obviously not seen as being financially viable at this time.
As an aside does anyone know what became of the HOTOL project?

[Dan Winterland]

The 747 Advanced will be too late. By the time it arrives, everyone will be on the A380 wagon. And it's just a re-hash of an old airframe. The 744 is very successful - there is no competitor, but it the fact it is just a developement of the 74C is very evident in it's systems - which for the large part haven't changed.

The 7E7 looks good, but I think it's raison d'etre has more to do with competing with the A330 (something the 767 no longer does) rather than the Boeing smaller aircraft to more destinations philosophy. That may work well in the US, but as the rest of the world's avaition market expands while the US's declines, will it be the case in the future?

[Omark44]

But the A380 wagon is pretty small isn't it Dan? Far from losing the plot Boeing got it right a long time ago when they realised that airlines were going for the B777 as a 744 replacement and cancelled their own VLA.

Look at the numbers of A380 that have been sold to the major players that have previously operated a large 747 fleet, the A380 order is only a fraction of the 747 order book and none so far sold to a major USA pax carrier either, not to mention not a whole lot of interest from the major USA airports to expand to cater for the A380.

A beautiful aeroplane it may be but it has a very limited market and consequently will sell in very limited numbers, quite possibly not enough for Airbus to break even.

We live in interesting times, possibly even the return of the Dinosaurs!

[747FOCAL]

AhDee,

Just because they said the 747 Advanced will happen does not mean it will. Though, they do appear to be putting lots of effort into it this time round.

I agree with Omark44. The A380 has a long way to go as far as being the great airship that you Europeans think it will be. Certainly, it will be 20 years before there is anywhere near as many flying as the 747. The 747 Special Freighter will see to that.

And......I still think Airbus will have a dickens of a time certifying PAX evac from the upper deck. Once the insurance people see how many people get hurt, the rates for the A380 will be staggering. Even worse for it, once one crashes(and I hope it never does), and they see what it costs to pay for 600+ souls the A380 may only be viable as a large package freighter.

[Human Factor]

My only concern with the A380 is that if one is forced to divert over the Atlantic to Gander (say), the only place big enough on most of the Atlantic alternates to park it would be on the runway. If the weather for ETOPS alternates is marginal on that day, it could cause big problems for everyone trying to get across the NATs in their 330s, 777, etc. I know the tracks can be flown with one ETOPS (180) alternate if they're in the right place, but it doesn't happen that often.

[Quick edit just to say that I know the ETOPS rules only apply at the planning stage, but if at that stage one of the only two alternates with legal weather is shut due to a 380 parked on the runway, you're stuffed.]

Any thoughts?

[Flopster]

Omark

I belive it is debateable whether Boeing cancelled their 747-400QXLR (or some such alphabet soup) because they found the airlines would rather buy 777s, or if the airlines would rather buy A380s and Boeing was therefore forced to retreat.

However, the fact that no US carrier have ordered the A380 can hardly be view as a failure of the aircraft. Besides which, its plain wrong as FedEx have ordered a handful. Since only United and Northwest operate passenger 747s, the US market is not the place where the A380 have to prove it's worth.

The real battleground will be the Far East, where Singapore and Qantas have already ordered the type. It will be far more important for the A380 to penetrate the Japanse and Chinese markets than the US. Now there is a worry ....

A fraction of 747 orders? The order book for the A380 is around the 130 mark, or roughly 10% of total 747 output. Not bad for an airliner that will not enter service for another 2 years....

As for wheter US airports will make the necessary adjustments. Well, if I was the owner of an airline due to operate A380s, I'd give LAX a call telling them of my plans to flog an A380 in their direction. I would also give, say, SFO a call. Between them, I'm sure they'd fight for getting my business and thus opgrade their airports. I wouldn't loose any sleep over that issue.

[Omark44]

Flopster

Boeing cancelled their VLA plans when they realised there was insufficient airline interest to make it a viable financial proposition and that airlines were already selling their B747s and buying B777s. BA and SIA are just two.

You say:
"However, the fact that no US carrier have ordered the A380 can hardly be view as a failure of the aircraft. Besides which, its plain wrong as FedEx have ordered a handful. Since only United and Northwest operate passenger 747s, the US market is not the place where the A380 have to prove it's worth".

I think it is you that may be 'wrong'! I said no PASSENGER operator in the USA had ordered the aircraft, go back and read my post again. United and American are not the only two long haul carriers in the USA, there is also Continental and between the three of them they are an awful lot bigger than BA, SIA and QANTAS. Right now the Chinese seem to like both Boeing and Airbus for short haul and Boeing for long haul, next time you are in Tokyo have a look at the number of Boeings operated by JAL and ANA.

As for trying to set the USA airports up in opposition to each other and have them actually compete for the A380, well, I think you must be joking, perhaps you haven't dealt with the USA much? If they wanted the business they would go out and get it, in a very aggressive way.

The point is that the A380 may be a wonderful aircraft but I personally don't think there is a big enough market for it to make it a viable financial proposition, major carriers will probably be able to use no more than twenty each, tops, and that, when added up, simply isn't going to be enough for Airbus to break even. EK have ordered 45, fine, yes they admit they see themselves as taking over from Singapore as the major aviation hub but it is a fact of life that they don't have access to the same markets as SIA, particularly in the Far East.

As already said, we live in interesting times and will just have to wait and see.

[What Red Line?]

All this discussion about the 380 seems to ring a bell somewhere.

I know!! It was way back in the late sixties when the 747 was mooted. All we heard was that airports wouldn't be able to accept them, carriers wouldn't be able to fill them, no-one would be able to afford them, they were too big etc, etc,etc.

I guess that forty years hence, we will probably be talking about the 38? versus the proposed Boeing XXX.

Same sh*t, different day(or year)

WRL

[Paul Wilson]

Was about to say the same thing at What Red Line, what people seem to be forgetting is that the A380 whilst certainly bigger than the 747 is not THAT much bigger. Certainly not as great a leap as the 747 was over its nearest rival at launch. I bet you could get nearly 550 people in a 747 if it was an all economy layout, and ElAl managed nearly a thousand on an evacuation flight a good few years ago.

A lot of people also seem to think that the US airlines are a very important market for the A380, unfortunatly not, yes Airbus would love to sell some to US airlines, but look at who is actually buying planes around the world, it's not big US carriers, its growing asian/mid east carriers. The US market will over the next 20 years become less and less important, because it has nearly reached saturation level, everyone has pretty much the number of planes they want. so orders for the industry as a whole are at a replacement level. Far Eastern/Asian/Mid East carriers are growing and need more planes every year.

[White Knight]

The US market is stagnant....because of that Boeing has decided that the rest of the world must also be. Their mistake.

Omark44 - the 747 has been around for 3 decades, that's the only reason that there are so many. Try looking ahead to 2034, shouldn't think so many 74's will still be plying the skies

[Dan Winterland]

Indeed - Boeing seem to be focused on their own domestic market, probably as a result of CEOs such Phil Conduit of Continental who stated he saw no place for the 380 in his airline. The emerging market in the aviation business is Asia, particularly China. Very soon, 1.3 billion Chinese will all have the right to travel overseas and what's more, a lot will have the fiancial means to do so. The 380 will fit in to this equation nicely.

The Japanese domestic market supports JALs 747-400Ds which are configured for 550 Y class on domestic shuttles. There is a market for aircraft such as these shuttling between Asia's population centres as well as on long haul routes. Particualrly if China is building large chunks of them!