When will the industry be back to normal?
 

Has anyone heard anything indicating how long it's likely to be before the airline industry is back to normal, or at least the intake of new trainee pilots? I finished uni last year and had applied to British Airways amongst others before Sept 11th. I'm unsure whether to take up another career (my degree is in computer science) or wait it out doing part time work.

I'm not sure what you are saying here. Do you want only to fly for BA, or do you just want to fly for a career? If you want BA, then forget it: one, they probably won't see much motivation in you in anycase, since if all you do is moap about waiting for the golden BA ticket, second, the CEP program may not start for another few years.

If you want to fly as a career, then I suggest you start doing something associated to it: learn to fly in PPL etc.

Many on this forum work in IT, and use it to fund their flying careers - either doing modular courses, or saving for a ab-initio.

But, if you are a graduate, you may also find that parts of the IT industry are pants at the moment re hiring people.

Sorry to break it to you but this industry is never in a condition that could be described as normal.

CPB

ppl I've talked to who are in the know edd say it could be anything between 2-3yrs. Don't hope on new trainee pilot positions for a very long time though, after sept 11th and the massive layoff of pilots by airlines there's a pretty big surplus and airlines will inevetably employ someone with experience over an absolute novice

Start a career that maximises your dosh intake and then ditch it when the time is right - that way if the sponsorships amount to nowt you will have some funds behind you to use later on for professional training. Wouldn't advise doing a mind-numbing part-time temp job (i.e. data entry) while waiting for the flying to take-off coz that only adds to the soul-destroying nature of the industry at present.

sB

In many ways it would be reasonable to suggest that the airline employment situation now is closer to normality than it was before 9/11! It is unlikely that airline cadet schemes will return in significant numbers for two or three years, maybe longer. For the forseeable future, the only guaranteed way of getting an ATPL is either to pay for it yourself, or join the RAF (or RN), do 16 years and get it paid for you. In fact, that way you might end up with an airline job before some of those that do it themselves!. .(Joke, chaps, OK?)

2 years from now self sponsored guys will start getting jobs without being Lottery sized lucky. The BA TEP should be running again by then as well.

Would be my guess. Note the use of the term Guess.

WWW

Providing something doesn't kick off in the Gulf.

from waht I am reading in the aviation press, I think we can forget about it being 'normal'ever again. The changes in legislation regarding EU negotiated agreements with the US, carriers going to the wall, low cost initiatives, changing fleets etc means that we may be entering a new and hence uncertain phase of development for the industry. My guess is that there will be more aircraft working harder by 2004 and there will be an instructor shortage in that year...and a pilot shortage the year after. Unless it all kicks off...

Just a guess

I'd say get into something with a good training scheme for your degree (IBM I believe do, or QinetiQ) but which does not tie you to a contract for period of time any longer than perhaps a year or 18 months. With a degree in computer science you should be able to start something good which could pan out as a career if you are unable to get into aviation any time soon, will pay well, and should look good for the interviews.

Ed2000uk, I suppose I am in a similar position as yourself. I too have recently graduated with a good degree in IT and like yourself was in the middle of applying for BA before 11/10. I am under the opinion that things will pick up in the next year or so but I don't expect any sponsorship schemes to be running for quite a few years yet. I have been very lucky however to secure a loan for a ab initio course starting soon thanks to very supportive parents who have guaranteed a substancial amount for me. I am under the opinion that in two years time the situation in the industry will have improved and that there will be sufficient jobs available for the low timers.

Things are going the right way now, with the recent advertisement for the British European Sponsorship things are looking up for a lucky few!

(if they have 180TT)

Computer science degree?

Have you ever considered joining a flight simulator company, they are crying out for people and are taking on graduates.

If you are interested in aviation, building a variety of level D sims, learning about different aircraft cockpits and traveling the world installing them. Then give it go.

When the market picks up (and it will) you can jump to the real thing with some experience. Be pretty proficient at a sim check.

Alternately, you may decide that you cannot take the pay cut leaving computers or that it would be too boring sitting in a cockpit watching instruments instruments when you have already been involved in what makes them work !!!

Suggest you give it a go and use your salary to pay for weekend flying.

All the best.

Here is IATA's newest outlook for the future :

Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition

. .IATA: LATEST PASSENGER FORECAST SHOWS EFFECT OF SEPTEMBER 11th AND POINTS TO THE RECOVERY AHEAD

. .IATA’s ‘Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition’ reflects the sharp impact on the aviation business of the global downturn and September 11th. An initial 2001-2005 forecast withheld from publication in September 2001, has now been replaced by this new interim edition. The new forecast was completed with the help of input from IATA Member Airlines between November 2001 and January 2002. It also compares current views with the initial September five year forecast.

The Interim Forecast highlights the downturn in growth in 2001 and predicts a continued contraction in early 2002. However, it also reveals the scale and shape of the recovery expected from late 2002 onwards.

Some key findings are:

• The route areas where the five year forecasts average annual growth rate (AAGR) has significantly been downgraded from IATA’s original September forecast are: Transatlantic, Transpacific and Europe to the Middle East. These are also the markets to demonstrate the strongest recovery from 2003 onwards. . . . .• The Intra-European route area, the largest of the international passenger markets, is estimated to achieve an AAGR of over 4% over the period 2001-2005, with low-cost carriers continuing to stimulate demand.

• The AAGR for total scheduled international passengers is 3.5%, down from 4.7% in the original 2001 forecast. This growth is made up of a clear decline in 2001, stabilisation in 2002, and then recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on international scheduled services is estimated to reach 637 million by 2005.

• The outlook for growth in domestic passenger traffic shows an AAGR of 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the original forecast, The domestic forecast anticipates a decline in both 2001 and 2002, before recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on domestic scheduled services is estimated to reach 1.2 billion by 2005.

IATA’s Passenger Forecast Special Interim Edition was derived from a supplementary survey of the world’s major airlines, airports and civil aviation authorities, and the expert opinion and commentary of staff from within IATA’s Aviation, Information and Research department. This edition reports the consensus opinion of the aviation industry’s forecasting and strategic planning experts since September 11th, and provides commentary on the current and future development of the global passenger market.

Source: <a href="http://www.iata.org" target="_blank">www.iata.org</a>

May I add my personal opinion on this as found on the following:

<a href="http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=41&t=002575" target="_blank">http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=41&t=002575</a>

You'll see the replies in there, the same of which will probably be posted here by the moderators.

PS

WWW, a quick (& probably dumb) question,

What is B.A's TEP? I know what the CEP and DEP mean. Or is it just a typo?

When will the industry be back to normal?

It depends on what your definition of normal is.

At this time of the year, year in year out, the airline industry supports itself from the shoulder months of the previous year. That is April/May to end of October. That, of course, is largely relevant to charter companies more than scheduled operators, but passenger figures always fall and they further fell disastrously low as a result of 11/9.

In October I gave an opinion on what I thought, from experience, the outcome of this might be. I said that I think we would see an upturn in business in March and further growth from then on. I think that will happen. What I also think will happen, is that this growth will encourage further growth. BAA have already seen signs of this and it will be interesting to see what Easter traffic is like. I would take a bet it won't be far off last year. As always, people have had enough of being "put down" and will start to migrate back to flying - probably in a mad rush. The short memory syndrome!

This effect, should it happen, will catch the airlines out. The result will be a shortfall in capacity and people will not be able to travel.

Much has been written in the past 24 hours about the Virgin deal. What other deals are being made as we speak we can only wonder. But I also bet that more aircraft are on the cards for other operators. More pilots will be wanted and I expect call-back lists have already been drawn up.

I also said that I thought that some pilots with low hours may find that they can get an interview if they push and shove their way through to the front. I think this is a probabilty too.

Long term I think the same applies now as it did after 11/9, that cadet schemes and other sponsorships will be hard to come by, but I am still sure they will start, albeit at low levels of activity. So you still have to keep up with the news.

Plan what you want to do according to your pocket and don't overstretch on the basis that one swallow makes a summer. Wait! The worm IS turning but as Scoggs says, there is still some way to go. Just how far may turn out to be a bit of a surprise.

But like I always say - DON'T GIVE UP!

InFinRetirement

A very good reply if I may say so, and one that echoes my long held beliefs. Nothing that I have seen to date leads me to think otherwise.

PS

ps Hope I'm right.

BillyFish2

TEP = Trainee Entry Pilot (BA's own nomenclature for what they previously titled CEP)

sB

IFR,

We can always rely on you to keep our spirits up <img src="wink.gif" border="0"> .

..... and the caution advice is well noted.

Auto