Ta sickBocks & I'll second that Polar!

As usual IFR has got it. Bookings over Easter are way up, just spoke to a major long haul booking agency and they are finding it hard to find any availability over Easter, except for USA which is still a bit slow. The airlines have cut back so far that they will be caught out, lets hope they see it before it happens or it might work against the industry, but the recovery is under way.

I think that IFR has hit the nail with his usual style - I just hope that he's right!

As for the rest of us wannabes we've just got to keep on chipping away at the coalface to get to where we want to be...

On a personal note, I've just booked my IMC and Night course for later on this year and am (finally) sorting out how the hell I'm going to fund my ATPL studies.

Autofly - long time no see, I will reply to your email I promise!

VTOL :)

Now I don't want to be a real misery - despite my letter in this months Flyer. BUT. I personally know of 4 airline pilots averaging, oh, about 5000hrs each on everything from jets to glass turboprops to HS748's that are OUT OF WORK.

I further know of 15 fully qualified CPL/IR Frzn ATPL holders with <500hrs WITH WHOM I HAVE FLOWN who are OUT OF WORK.

And I am but one man and have been out of flying training for over a year now.

Its all very well Virgin announcing that they are NOT cancelling the 10 new Airbi but lets be honest. They are not even built yet. It'll take until 2004 for them to all come on line. That hardly helps guys trying to pay next months rent.

And every month that goes by more and more people join the queue. CABAIR, OATS and BAE alone have pumped out 400 low time pilots since Sept 11th. In the next 6 months they will do the same and only then will numbers dip as people put off training post attack.

I don't care how decicated and brilliant you are its going to be a living nightmare getting a job when there are 800+ similarly qualified applicants for every job.

I do not dispute for a second that the industry is recovering strongly. This is a mild crisis by Gulf War standards. Albeit dependent on the USA of A taking on Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya and North Korea as has been hinted at. The good time will return.

But for now I cannot think of a worse industry to be getting into. It would be easier becoming a Luton car maker or South Wales steel worker than an airline pilot at the moment. Its a brilliant job, rewarding career and worthwhile pursuit. But join at the right time and spare yourself the heartache of endless Sod Off letters. Its EXPENSIVE maintaining your IR and the clock is ticking on your ATPL exams. Why not save yourself some money and stress and delay those exams and that IR?

Don't ever give up your dream. Do make your dream more pleasurable and go to sleep at the right time - which in my view will not be for at least another year.

WWW

[quote]Its all very well Virgin announcing that they are NOT cancelling the 10 new Airbi but lets be honest. They are not even built yet. It'll take until 2004 for them to all come on line. That hardly helps guys trying to pay next months rent.<hr></blockquote>

. .Not quite right WWW. The first one will be on line in June, THREE more by October - this year. The remaining six by 2006. BBC yesterday! Four aircraft x 6 crews(?) = 72 pilots!

Good post WWW.

What happens if you are in the middle of those exams by distance learning?

I guess it wouldn't hurt to gain a CPL- as this has the same validity as a PPL.

However, the IR is a different story altogether. Would it be such a hardship if you were to let 3 years go by without gaining your IR? How many ATPL exams do you have to do again?

What do you guys think?

UTC - thanks for that correction. 4 this year = good. 2006 = poor.

Keeping an IR current will cost the best part of £2000 a year. It will also be extremely stressful as you passed last time at the zenith of your flight training and now have 52 weeks of rust to overcome.

I think as policy it is a good idea to plan your entry into the market such that you can get a first job within 12 months. I did my IR in Nov 1999 and by Nov 2000 I was in the position that BAE had to pay for my renewal and flight preparation. This is an ideal situation and I commend it to everyone.

Do everything bar the IR and the ATPL exams would be my advice at the moment. If you have a reasonably lucrative job - keep it for a while. Remember employers often ask - How many hours Total and THEN How many hours in the last 12 months? If you have low time then the total figures will be all of a muchness. Your initial application may stand or fall on the basis of the last 12 months hours total. Just to pass the secretary test i.e. "Bin any CV's that don't have 100hrs in the last 12 months".

With factors such as this plus currency for sim rides it looks sensible to enter the market when you have a realistic chance of a job within 12 months. If that means delaying at the moment - which I believe it does - then its the smart thing to do.

WWW

The 'announcement' of Virgin's order for A340-600s is more than a bit misleading. These aircraft were ordered in 1997/8. Since October 2001 there has been much haggling between Virgin and Airbus over whether the order would actually go ahead. The announcement this week was that the order was indeed re-confirmed, thanks to some nifty re-financing very much in Virgin's favour.. .Unfortunately (for you), these aircraft are scheduled to be one-for-one replacements for the old A340-300s, although there may be a review of that later in the delivery schedule. So there won't be any new jobs at Virgin as a result.. .However, as IFR says, there are strong signs that things are on the way to a good recovery. The beancounters are unlikely to authorise any recovery of lost capacity this year (which is why it's going to be a bad year to get a cheap holiday!), but 2003 may well see much of the capacity restored. That will mean that most of the pilot jobs lost in the last 6 months will return over the next 10-20 months, and those made unemployed will be back in the saddle again - if they want to be. A proportion won't come back, so there will be some jobs for newbies. I don't see a net increase in capacity, and thus jobs, until 2004. That's when I think that the market for you guys will start to look reasonably healthy - but there will be a huge backlog of fATPLs to clear. It may well be that by 2006 the airlines will be screaming for new pilots, as there will be a dip in the output from the FTOs over the next 2 years. However, that's 4 years away!. .So, keep your chins up but have a back up plan to keep some income coming in in the meantime.

Thanks for all the responses. Since my post I've been to stage 1 of the malgus selection, so keeping my fingers crossed for that. I'm also going to look into getting a loan for flight training.

Edd

.. every foreign JAR certificate holder will apply for a jobs with UK carriers, especially the lowfares ... talk about increaced competition .. <img src="eek.gif" border="0">

fly4food,

But doesn't that work both ways? Now UK holders of the JAA ATPL can apply for every other member country's pilot vacancies.

Not in France apparantly

quelle suprise, Non!

Recevez monsieur l'expression de nos salutations. .distinguees

Of course speaking the lingo helps as well

Balpa put the number of casualties since 9/11. .at over 1100 all type rated multi-crew mates

It may improve rapidly but we are as Scroggs points out we are looking at years not months....

[ 26 February 2002: Message edited by: RVR800 ]</p>

RVR800,

Check your mail.

Those figures, are they UK alone? I must say I'd like to see their break down, in terms of airline a x number etc. I know BA have not let anyone go, Virgin's actual numbers are realy quite small, Gill let off 40 or so, but we are a long way short of the 1100.

It might be a bit of creative acounting going on here I suspect.

btw, re the France bit, check my comments in the Frozen ATPL deadline thread.

PS

RVR800,

That is indeed France for you but not necessarily the rest of Europe.

Our French friends have been at this protectionist lark a long time before anyone ever thought up the JAA. For instance, try using a UK or Irish engineering degree in France to get a job - not bloody likely, an MSc might get just you a technician's job. Try getting an electronic, electrical or telecom system approved for use in France - ah no I don't think so, unless you can dress it up and make it look like it was designed or made in France. However when someone goes to sell top quality beef to the French, the open European market suddenly gets very 'a la carte'!

OK so I know this comes from an commercial engineering perspective but France is the only country in the EU to throw up barriers as high for imports. Deal with Spain, Italy, Portugal, Germany, Denmark and (most of!) the rest and this never ever happens. They only want to know: will it work and how much. With France, it is an entirely different matter.

Polar,. .I believe those figures are UK only. I'm afraid your perception of the number of jobs lost is quite wrong.. .BA may not have made any pilots compulsorily redundant, but there are 400 fewer aircrew jobs in BA mainline than there were this time last year. Virgin has lost 160 pilots and 90 flight engineers - hardly small numbers, I think you'll agree - and BMI has got rid of 109 pilots. Gill's 40 you know about. There are many more, but I don't have the figures to hand, but just those few add up to about 800. 1100 is quite easy to believe.

Billyfish2

Well nearly all Europeans speak and understand english ... but how many languages do the English and Irish speak .. spanish, german, french, scandinavian languages ??

The number of applicants from the other European countries will far exceed the number of UK, Irish applications the other way .. due to the language barrier .. me think .. <img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

[ 26 February 2002: Message edited by: fly4food ]</p>

ed2000

You've got an IT degree. Become a contractor. Work for a year or two and buy an ATPL. After that work six months of the year and spend the other flying for nothing. Yes, I think it'll get like PFT in America. There's just too many sub 2000 hrs people chucking about to expect to get paid much longer.

haven't had time to read the pages of replys but not sure if any one has mentioned the resession just around the corner! . .should stuff most airlines for a good 6 months to a year. it did in the US ! . . .i would get a good job , there;s plently for your sort of degree , save a bit money and get a PPL . what you have to ask yourself is it worth it ? 40k for a licence to fly back and forward to palma all day (thank-you easy jet). i felt it wasn't worth the risk and took an even greater risk of forming an investment company with a small american stock broker! i guess the risk of CPL flying was just too great.

. .neil. . .'Capital First Group' Alternative Investments.

neil - wait till you get the bug. Then it will be worth the risk.

Well so far the thread is as cheerful as they come, might as well cheer it up further !!!

Short term - No jobs, excess of experience pilots on the market. Got to have a contact to get in. When you're in the salary is poor.

Medium term - Probably a pick up in two to three years, if recession dosen't hit or the Americans take matters further in the Gulf.

Long term - Well with Rockwell flying these pilotless aircraft (the size of business jets) across the atlantic and the cockpit technology increasing year on year. You've probably got 15 to 20 years left of multi-crew operations, followed by a lowering of standards required for single pilot operations as technology takes over.

Before anyone jumps down my throat passionately saying there will always be a pilot at the front of the aircraft - the passengers won't accept it. No one seems to mind jumping into the unmanned airport shuttle at the Gatwick Satalite pre-boarding. What with 9/11 and Human Error the major cause of accidents, the drive is already there to ensure more control is directed from the ground.

Think long and hard before buying yourself into a career like being a bus conductor. Before you know it, bus conductors will be surplus to requirements.

I thought long and hard, but the bug got to me I'm afraid and I would still rather be in a cockpit than flying around behind a desk, recession or no recession, future or no future after all you only live once !!!