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-   -   Becoming a pilot After COVID-19 (https://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/631062-becoming-pilot-after-covid-19-a.html)

Alex Whittingham 13th May 2020 21:46

"Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?"

But what on earth could the ATOs offer to the airlines to make that deal stick? Ryanair have shown that you can get good pilots from both integrated and modular, there is NO difference.


Banana Joe 13th May 2020 22:54

Actually Ryanair have agreements with three modular schools. None with the big ones.
​​​​​​

portsharbourflyer 13th May 2020 23:05

Everyone has very short memories, history is normally a very good way to predict the future.

Trent210, to a lesser extent that is exactly what seemed to be happening in the period when recruitment levels were low (which to me is actually situation normal) in previous years.
Between 2008 until 2014 and to an extent between 2000 until 2007, there was certainly a trend where the mainstream airlines and the low cost were recruiting either low hour integrated via some form of SSTR scheme, or those with 500 hours time on jet preferably Airbus or Boeing. Alot of instructors and turboprops pilots in those times were stuck where they were unable to progress in that time. So Trent210 it is very feasible we could see the past practices return. While a cadet may entail extra training requirements in year 1 (if a SSTR scheme then the cost is partly or fully mitigated), by year two the lower salary starts to offer a saving.

The last 3 years were exceptional recruitment levels and the first time modular has seen an even keel in airline recruitment. The last 2 years did see BA take low hour modular via a SSTR scheme,absolutely unheard of in the previous 15 years.

However Look at LPJ, the Eaglejet Adverts for pay to fly have reappeared with a resurgence in recent weeks.


fcom 14th May 2020 02:02

It only feels like yesterday when I was in the same position as you guys.I started my training in 1989 and when I became qualified Air Europe and Dan Air went bust. There were 600 qualified pilots actively seeking work and of course guys like myself were at the bottom of the list. It took me 4 years to get my first flying job when the glut finally reduced. I now work for a major U.K. long haul airline and once again pilots will be flooding the market in unprecedented amounts. This crisis will only go away with a vaccine. It started with one case 5 months ago there are now 4 million, we locked down with 3000 in the U.K. and unlocking with 300K, now I’m not a mathematician but it doesn’t take a genius to work out how serious this will become over the next 5 months it can only get worse.
The airlines are delusional when they predict only a 40% reduction in passenger travel over the next 12 months. The airlines are losing millions per week and the government loans will only give them about 8 months breathing space before they are back to square one. This is only phase one of redundancies and many more will follow after September when the passengers don’t return in sufficient numbers, aviation will never be the same again because without a vaccine in the next 12 months airlines will fail and recovery will take a minimum of 5 years to recover but once again only with a cure. Although I hope to survive this first round of redundancies sadly I am not confident that I will ever fly again. My advice is think very carefully about starting your training anytime soon, wait for a vaccine and then start and by the time you finish you may be in the right position to get your dream job. Good luck

guy_incognito 14th May 2020 08:47

There's a very good chance that there will never be an effective vaccine for this virus. However, there is also a very good chance that the mortality rate is going to end up looking like seasonal flu (in the order of 0.1-.3%). Despite all the hysterical, media driven hype this remains a virus that overwhelmingly causes no or mild symptoms, except in statistically very limited cases.

In other words, we are going to learn to live with it. Leisure travel in particular is likely to rebound strongly, because people will want to go on holiday. Business travel is another story and I fear that it may be irreparably damaged.

With all of that said, I don't see there being any jobs for cadets within three years. Training now would be foolhardy, unless you have £10s of thousands that you can afford to lose.

TRENT210 14th May 2020 22:53


Originally Posted by Alex Whittingham (Post 10781777)
"Would big ATO’s not strike a deal with Airlines like EasyJet to prioritise their future fresh graduates first?"

But what on earth could the ATOs offer to the airlines to make that deal stick? Ryanair have shown that you can get good pilots from both integrated and modular, there is NO difference.

There may not be any difference in quality but there is a difference in how much people pay.

My modular training cost £70k vs £100k+ that integrated students are paying. How much of that £70k is profit? More importantly how much of the £100k+ is profit?

What’s stops integrated schools looking to stay afloat / keep their reputation from offering some kind of legal “kickback” out of their profit margin to partner airlines ?

So you’ve got 2 freshly trained pilots; both with licences, both with their heads screwed on. One is modular and the other is from an integrated school who’s offering a £10k bounty to the airline that takes them on

Which graduate would the airline take ? They’re both of a high calibre but one stands to earn them £10k.

£10k might not seem a lot but when you multiply that by how many pilots they’ve needed up to now...

flyingkeyboard 15th May 2020 09:30


Originally Posted by TRENT210 (Post 10782878)
There may not be any difference in quality but there is a difference in how much people pay.

My modular training cost £70k vs £100k+ that integrated students are paying. How much of that £70k is profit? More importantly how much of the £100k+ is profit?

What’s stops integrated schools looking to stay afloat / keep their reputation from offering some kind of legal “kickback” out of their profit margin to partner airlines ?

So you’ve got 2 freshly trained pilots; both with licences, both with their heads screwed on. One is modular and the other is from an integrated school who’s offering a £10k bounty to the airline that takes them on

Which graduate would the airline take ? They’re both of a high calibre but one stands to earn them £10k.

£10k might not seem a lot but when you multiply that by how many pilots they’ve needed up to now...

I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

parkfell 15th May 2020 11:06


Originally Posted by flyingkeyboard (Post 10783192)
I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

They will stand a better chance “to stay afloat” if they start to market Modular Courses. At GA department will shortly appear on their websites. Additional competition for the present small schools.
Somewhat more admin intensive than the long Integrated course.

They will need to get the tick in the box from the Regulator.

Waters might be slightly muddy with BREXIT v. EASA. But I am sure the new Chairman of the UK 🇬🇧 CAA will ensure that a smooth transition is achieved.

Is there actual evidence of ‘kick backs’ ? Dangerous territory if Inspector Knacker of the Yard starts to nose about.....?


TRENT210 15th May 2020 13:35


Originally Posted by flyingkeyboard (Post 10783192)
I suppose the question to ask in that situation would be, will students pay the premium knowing that the kickback is in place, or will they still take their chances and save money by going modular? And would there be sufficient students taking the integrated option to provide the schools with sufficient revenue to stay afloat?

Forgetting COVID19 for a second, if people were eager to pay £100k 12 months ago I doubt they’d have an issue paying £100k in the future knowing they’re at the top of the list for a job. Do people really care what the profit is used for ?

But as you’ve said... are there sufficient eager people ?

PilotLZ 15th May 2020 14:18

We're yet to find out which way the modular VS integrated dilemma will go. I do find it extremely unlikely that integrated will become a thing of the past, but it might lose some of its premium status after all the failed cadetships. Most who went integrated up until disaster struck were ready to pay double for the sole reason of getting ahead of the pack when it comes to recruitment, with prestige, fun etc being secondary considerations at best. Whether this will still be the case in a year or two remains to be seen. And it's also heavily dependent on which part of the world you consider. In many countries integrated was never a big thing and even their legacy carriers filled their entry-level pilot vacancies with modular students.

spitfirejock 15th May 2020 15:12

I posted this on another thread yesterday and copied it here as I thought it was relevant...........


I have, so far, resisted the temptation to join the hot and current thread about life after COVID, but I very much enjoyed reading the last posting by rudestuff, I wholeheartedly agree and it prompted me to join in.
Trying to avoid getting into the 'integrated vs "modular debate I would still at least hope by now, it is be clear to everyone who really has done their research, there is no difference, its simply about the quality of the training and the school's standards and moral compass.

I also admit, my crystal ball does NOT allow me to predict the future either, and despite many on here that think they are right (many gloomy and some optimistic), no one really knows, so in my opinion it boils down to money - spend as little as you can to follow your dream, but this would be my best advice even before the virus!!

There will be people that will strongly argue "you get what you pay for', perhaps an over generalization to justify the 100K plus price tag, but let the facts speak for themselves, Rudestuff is factually correct, I personally also know many great commercial pilots who paid an equivalent sum (different amounts depending which year they trained, of course), and today that is the right and sensible amount to spend if you want to start now.

I certainly do not subscribe to gloom and doom approach. Flying is fantastic, flying as a recreational pilot is incredible fun and rewarding, gaining a full commercial and looking for an airline job in the future is commendable and it still is for many, the greatest job on earth despite those that suggest otherwise, although maybe for them they hate it. So certainly do not stop the dream and give up, just take enjoyable affordable steps and be ready for the next hiring boom, whenever it might occur.

So to the pundits that predict Armageddon - they say flying is finished, no one will travel again. I cant say they are wrong, just as I cant say I am right, however, learning to fly and holding a PPL is fulfilling the dream of flying, you can do most things and go most places (especially with an IR), you can even share costs with friends, you just cant be paid or fly for an airline yet, but later, its an easy jump if by the time everything returns (if it does) to normal, you have a couple of hundred hours in your logbook and have enjoyed every minute of it.

SJ

Northern Monkey 16th May 2020 06:58

The other thing I would just mention here for consideration: Even assuming you could find a job, what will pilot terms and conditions look like post COVID?

It is fair to assume the cost of training will not go down. However, the contract waiting at the far end may be materially different. For some people, the so called "wannabe zombie army" that may not matter, but for the more considered viewers of this forum, I would keep a close eye on how airlines are changing their terms and conditions. There is limited visibility on this yet because most employers are still at the option generation stage. When the cuts start to be announced, they may be very unpalatable.

Speaking from my experience, during training you are excited about flying jets. Once you have been flying for a while you realise that what actually matters (just like any other job) is the life your job allows you to lead, both financially and socially. How much will I have left at the end of the month once I've paid for my flying loan, car, rent etc. How many days off will I have? How much holiday? Will I be able to get a mortgage? The list goes on, but these are the important things.

One other thing to consider which, frankly, because I was young and naive, I did not. The aviation industry, as is being demonstrated with horrible consequence now, is uniquely exposed to the perils of world events. Which basically makes the whole recruitment market for pilots just a big lottery. I feel for the Thomas Cook pilots who having found another job must have been elated, only to immediately be at risk of redundancy again. Or the Flybe pilots who find themselves working at Tesco. Ours is an industry which is always going to be exposed to this kind of thing and while the current situation is without precedent, its worth bearing in mind that working in aviation will, periodically, come with a large dose of stress during major crises. I doubt there is anyone working in aviation at the moment who isn't, on some level, contingency planning in case the worst happens. It is not a pleasant feeling.

Aviation will recover at some point. The world isn't going back to the stone ages. People will still want to fly and go on holiday. But if you are determined to become a pilot it will be more important than ever to do the sums properly and go into it with your eyes open.



guy_incognito 16th May 2020 09:24


Originally Posted by Northern Monkey (Post 10783876)
Speaking from my experience, during training you are excited about flying jets. Once you have been flying for a while you realise that what actually matters (just like any other job) is the life your job allows you to lead, both financially and socially. How much will I have left at the end of the month once I've paid for my flying loan, car, rent etc. How many days off will I have? How much holiday? Will I be able to get a mortgage? The list goes on, but these are the important things.

This is all absolutely spot on, and as you say it's what a lot of wannabes are least likely to actually consider.

I don't see how it's possible for anyone working in aviation from now on to even consider buying a house, leasing a car, enjoying any discretionary spending whatsoever. Unless your partner works and has a secure and well paid job, I don't see how it's possible now for a pilot to plan for a family, knowing that their job security is and always will be non-existent.

The cuts to Ts&Cs are going to be absolutely brutal. The old maxim attributed to Churchill is "Never waste a good crisis." and you can rest assured that airline management are rubbing their hands with glee at the opportunity that has presented itself to take a scythe to contracts. The reality is likely to be that salaries and conditions will never again return to anything close to what we had prior to the crisis. It was never justifiable from a bean counter's point of view to pay £40k for entry level (FO cadet) jobs and £six figures for captains, when this has always been an aspirational career path with a vast oversupply of applicants. The "new normal" contracts are not going to make nice reading.

TRENT210 16th May 2020 12:02


Originally Posted by Northern Monkey (Post 10783876)
Ours is an industry which is always going to be exposed to this kind of thing and while the current situation is without precedent, its worth bearing in mind that working in aviation will, periodically, come with a large dose of stress during major crises. I doubt there is anyone working in aviation at the moment who isn't, on some level, contingency planning in case the worst happens. It is not a pleasant feeling.

I’m stressed at the moment as are most of my colleagues, I imagine.

However I would gladly take periodic stress and job insecurity over going back to join the headphone wearing zombies, I used to see on the train to my old job, commuting to the same steady 9-5 office job and counting down the days until the weekend everyday for the next 40+ years. No thanks.

This movie scene was one of the reasons I never gave up chasing my dream:


PilotLZ 16th May 2020 14:44

Pay and general T&Cs will not be down forever. Once things pick up again, companies will inevitably need more pilots. Especially experienced ones as it's simply not realistic to run flight operations entirely on 200-hour cadets and freshly upgraded Captains. You need instructors and examiners. You need senior FOs for inexperienced Captains to fly with. You also need experienced and capable Captains to fly with the FOs who are fresh out of line training. What's the way to attract experienced individuals from other establishments or to prevent them from quitting flying for better careers? Offer them more in return. Simple supply and demand.

For some time, it will not be pretty. Especially for the beginners. Think self-funded type ratings, zero-hour contracts, a new advent of P2F and whatnot else. But it will level out in a couple of years.

awair 16th May 2020 20:13

There is an incredible depth of wisdom and advice in this thread, but I'll add my 2-cents anyway, as it's probably better to learn from the mistakes of others, than your own?

But first it simply boils down to this:

Originally Posted by Andre Meyer (Post 10767910)
It is never a good time to become a Pilot neither is it ever a bad time to become a Pilot. It is, however, important to become a Pilot.


Originally Posted by q400_driver (Post 10735729)
Once the restrictions start to lift, one can assume an influx of high quality instructors into training industry. You want to do your pilot training when the economy is down - this typically means you get a good product for a low price.

Yes airlines are firing a LOT of pilots at the moment, but here's the thing..
First of all, airlines also have a LOT of metal sitting on the ground. These planes cost ridiculous money in leasing every month and there's no way out of it. Some airlines will go bankrupt but the machines will still make losses to somebody, be it a lessor, bank, an oil magnate, it doesn't matter - at some point they will need to fly again to pay themselves off and you will need people for that.

I agree with @q400_driver, this will be a great time to train, good instruction and possibly unique opportunities ... but watch your budget!


Originally Posted by giggitygiggity (Post 10773789)
There will be thousands, probably tens of thousands of flying jobs over the next 5 years, but none, bar the odd cargo one for the next 2. An incomprehensible number of airlines will go bust, maybe not today, but soon. They’ll come out of this so riddled with debt; this will open up many many opportunities new solvent airlines to form. They’ll be able to buy slots, planes and crew very very cheap, on far worse terms than those employed now are on.

No amount of government loaning is going to solve our/the upcoming debt crisis.

There are going to be massive winners out of this, but the brands you recognise I’m afraid, aren’t going to be the champions.

There are grounds for optimism as well as pessimism. Those pilots in their mid-50s, will leave the industry early, in an attempt to carve a second career. Some, who are young enough will switch as well, and others, thinking of training, will fail to continue. This 'natural selection' will not make jobs available for all, but there will be opportunities for those willing and eager.


Originally Posted by spitfirejock (Post 10783450)
I also admit, my crystal ball does NOT allow me to predict the future either, and despite many on here that think they are right (many gloomy and some optimistic), no one really knows, so in my opinion it boils down to money - spend as little as you can to follow your dream, but this would be my best advice even before the virus!!

So to the pundits that predict Armageddon - they say flying is finished, no one will travel again. I cant say they are wrong, just as I cant say I am right, however, learning to fly and holding a PPL is fulfilling the dream of flying, you can do most things and go most places (especially with an IR), you can even share costs with friends, you just cant be paid or fly for an airline yet, but later, its an easy jump if by the time everything returns (if it does) to normal, you have a couple of hundred hours in your logbook and have enjoyed every minute of it.
SJ

So rather than "Modular or Integrated?", maybe reconsider your goal: do you want to fly? Do you want to be a pilot, or be paid to be a pilot? That £70k or 100k could go a long way to a much better solution, if the earnings curve doesn't match what has been historically available.

My advice would be to enroll in a US aviation-centric University (Purdue, UND, Ohio State etc). Follow a non-flying degree with earning potential, and over the 2-4 years duration, qualify for PPL, IR etc, as your budget allows. Keep an eye on the market, and accelerate your flying training as appropriate.

Most of all, enjoy every hour you spend aloft, rather than rushing through a never-ending treadmill to a destination that disappears.

Good luck!

parkfell 17th May 2020 07:48

AWAIR gives sound advice and points to institutions the other side of the pond.

For those obviously very disappointed embryonic pilots, C-19 will delay your plans for the time it takes to obtain a good degree / post graduate qualification.

It doesn’t have to be aviation related such as aeronautical engineering.

It always amazes me that those enrolling think it is all about aeroplane design. It is not. 90% of the course is mathematics:
disappointed / frustrated potential aviators often emerge.

Great if you enjoy maths as much as aeroplanes. Potential TPs.

Obtaining a degree in a totally non aviation discipline is fine, although you need to avoid degree courses which might come under the broad bush heading of “Underwater Basket Weaving”.

One of the consequences of this present tsunami is that those who think aviation will somehow help with their insecurity and improve their kudos, by walking through the terminal in a pilot’s uniform will think again.

Only those with a burning desire to fly will emerge from these dark days.
The analogy I often use is about those contemplating (for the right reasons!) joining the Church ~ you have to believe in GOD.

I have my faith in Prof Sarah Gilbert’s Oxford team producing a vaccine this year.

portsharbourflyer 17th May 2020 09:11

"It always amazes me that those enrolling think it is all about aeroplane design. It is not. 90% of the course is mathematics":

While what you say is in essence correct, I think the better way to phrase that is mathematics is a major element to aircraft design (well any engineering subject really). To add Aero Engineering is actually more challenging than a maths degree, in engineering you have to learn how to apply those mathematical principles to the physical application (by definition that is what engineering is).
Design without calculations is product design (designing fancy desk top pencil trays and such forth) not engineering.

You are however correct that many studying aeronautical engineering do fail to realise that it is just a variation on mechanical engineering. Also the fact that most of the content is mechanical engineering, means that it is equally useful for gaining employment in engineering sectors outside of aerospace, which considering the potential layoffs at RR, Boeing and Airbus means some Aero Engineering graduates will have to look to other sectors in the short term.

PilotLZ 17th May 2020 14:48

Any engineering degree, even if it's in a broad discipline like mechanical, chemical or civil engineering, will not only give you a respectable and versatile qualification for backup but will also teach you transferable skills which will eventually make you a better pilot and more efficient all-round. Being able to research a problem independently or as part of a team, propose a solution to it and present it appropriately is a major part of many jobs, not just of airline flying. The same goes for time management, processing large volumes of information, adapting to a new and diverse environment, getting your work-life balance right and whatnot else that you will naturally learn at uni and will never learn solely by drilling through ATPL question banks. The latter reminds me of the proverbial cadet who was asked a simple aerodynamics question in an airline interview and replied with "What are the options?". Don't be that person.

And, to reiterate on what some members rightly said above - even if you're doing an aviation degree, never forget that it's an entirely different cup of tea than flight training. If you go in with the expectations of doing a three-year course in "flying with partying", you will be frustrated AF by the end of semester one. Rather than that, treat it as an opportunity to expand your skills and knowledge and as a broad base, allowing you to easily specialize in flying at a later time. And, of course, get the most of it, have a lot of fun and build some lifelong friendships and memories on the way.

flying25 18th May 2020 11:21

Ground school (ATPL Theory) How to prepare before starting?
 
I should (hopefully) be starting my Integrated ATPL program in July and with that will be spending the first six months completing the 14 ATPL exams. As I have a bit of time before I start the course, I was wondering whether there is anything useful I could be doing to prepare for the theory aspect to make it easier once I am there. I am brushing up on my maths/ physics but feel this could be better spent actually focusing on the ATPL content?

The sheer volume of content is making it hard for me to know what the best strategy is prior to starting the course.

Any help/advice would be much appreciated.


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