[QUOTE=fcom;10781904
The airlines are delusional when they predict only a 40% reduction in passenger travel over the next 12 months. The airlines are losing millions per week and the government loans will only give them about 8 months of breathing space before they are back to square one. This is only phase one of redundancies and many more will follow after September when the passengers don’t return in sufficient numbers, aviation will never be the same again because without a vaccine in the next 12 months airlines will fail and recovery will take a minimum of 5 years to recover but once again only with a cure. My advice is think very carefully about starting your training anytime soon, wait for a vaccine and then start, and by the time you finish you may be in the right position to get your dream job. Good luck[/QUOTE]

I agree totally with this.....Flight Schools are being irresponsible by promoting Integrated Courses at this time and should switch everyone to Modular.

One thing to consider, and I stress I have no inside information whatsoever but I offer this as a general point of principle.

Once upon a time (otherwise known as January this year), the big integrated schools looked like rock solid businesses where your cash would be safe as houses. Now? Who knows. You have well established airlines talking about the current situation as an existential threat. Could these business ultimately fail over the coming months/years? Almost unthinkable until recently but if I was looking at sizeable payments for integrated training I would be thinking carefully about my exposure to these sorts of risks.

Yet another reason why, second only to postponing your training, modular looks like the smartest option right now.

remember cabair?

TBH the integrated schools did not look like that in January, they looked like there was already something badly wrong. Look back on the posts

Certainly do - I worked there when they went bust and they still owe me money. Some chance eh?

Presumably you are aware that a tsunami has hit aviation?

What is your assessment as to when you might gain employment?

Your best strategy is to delay the course until a vaccine is available, unless of course money is no object and the course will not create a mountain of debt.....

Modular might be the wiser option until Crystal Balls are fully “S”.

Modular Student Post Covid 19
 

Modular student currently doing my PPL at Redhill aviation. Given the current state of the industry i am u sure where continuing my training is the right thing to do for now i plan to finish my PPL first. I was wondering what people thought of the timeline is spacing out a good idea would i end up finishing my training potentially during a next hiring wave.
Night Rating - October 2020

Hour Building: September 2020- February 2022

ATPLs: September 2022 - December 2023 (15months ATPLs Passed ) -

Commercial Training- June 2024 Multi- Engine Piston Rating : Multi- Engine instrument rating: CPL

I just thought you were a bit of an idiot to be fair.

Time and patience...Aviation has weathered many a storm. We can arm chair quarterback this till we are blue in the face but negativity will only make things worse.

What isn’t missed is your total lack of empathy for those unfortunate trainees caught up in this tsunami.
You are a feckless imbecile.

Peter_Ahons, if you are worried about finishing training in a hiring wave then its best for you to stop flying now and go find a different industry.
In the last 20 years the only hiring boom was probably the previous 3 years just before the covid.

Anytime out side of that it was always difficult to get the first flying job, often people would have taken 3 to 5 years to find the first multi crew job in the period between 2000 to 2014 (the main exception to that were those placed by the integrated schools and those paying 30k to Ryanair for a rating). There was a small peak around late 2007 followed by the downturn in 2008.
I doubt we will see recruitment levels of the previous three years ever again (again based on the trend of the last 20 years then in 17 years time, who knows), and I will say this again the last three years was the exception not the normal, the last three years has given too many people a false perception of the industry. Flight training was always a gamble.
If you are single with no commitments then generally there are/will be opportunities somewhere at some point.

Good idea? Only if money is a problem. Spacing out training makes it more expensive. You have no idea when the next hiring will take place so you want to be ready when it happens. But you don't want to be in possession of an "out-of-date" licence either (where it's been too long since you passed your test)
You should finish your PPL and night rating then take your ATPLs then aim to get your IRR, CBIR and SECPL as quickly as possible. That saves the ATPLs. You won't have a fATPL but you will have a CPL/IR. You'll have spent in total about 4x the cost of your PPL (circa £30k) and when the hiring starts, you can upgrade to a fATPL in a few weeks, then apply for jobs with a 'fresh' MEIR and MCC/JOC. That last bit might not happen quickly, so there's nothing stopping you becoming an FI in the mean time.

WITHOUT PREJUDICE

Just one thing to add ~ confirm that you have been issued with a Class One Medical.
It will lapse eventually into a Class Two, and finally expire.

You can renew it before the expiry of the Class Two, or, if you pause the flying, ensure that it expires by no more than 5 years, otherwise full Initial is required again.

As the outcome of BREXIT v. EASA is still to be resolved, check the validity of the above paragraphs early 2021.

Hi guys,

I am organising a webinar on this issue for young aspiring pilots to ask questions from someone who is an experienced pilot has work experience in alternative industries and recently completed a degree .Having gone through a crisis myself I can imagine the dilemma you all are facing. You will be able to ask questions as it will be a live webinar. If any of you is interested you can register on:
https://she-pilots.com/webinar-registration-planb/

What amazes me is how these conversations ALWAYS descend in to name calling and arguing! People are genuinely looking for advice and help, common sense would say ‘go to a forum with pilots and ask them for assistance’. Give it a few days and it’s chaos.
I understand that people will have different ideas about the way to proceed with training and the effect of COVID on the industry. But let’s try and be mature, help each other out and be respectful to one another.
every thread is full to brim with ‘glossy brochure this’ and ‘mummy and daddy that’ with the odd splattering ‘You are an idiot if you don’t go modular’.
it’s not helpful.
rant over! Peace

Well said! So many bitter comments that aren’t helpful on here and other threads.

Modular course right now just depends on what your local FTOs offer; it’s definitely the safest approach to flight training. I’d spread it out over a few years, PPL then CPL and re-evaluate before going for MCC/IR etc. With a modular course you can at least put the brake on training if you feel you’re not heading in the right direction for whatever reason.

I have the money myself sat in a bank account and a well paid job so I would suite a modular course better anyway. But I wouldn’t dream of doing an integrated course over the next several years. The risk of financial loss due to upfront costs and lack of jobs plus security mostly.

The industry will recover but we are in no sensible position to predict it any further than what the airline boards have already, which were based on Q1 and partial Q2 figures.

Hi guys,

What is better to get a job when aviation recovers, a pilot with 1500hrs flown in a Cessna 172 or a pilot with 350hrs but with a type rating in the airplane to be flown in the airline?

Yes, exactly! Very well said.

I would advise you to start ATPL theory caurse right after PPL and do some hour building along in order not to forget flying.
ATPL also covers CPL theory and IR theory. You have quite enough time to get those ratings after ATPL theory and postpone huge payments for advance courses like SEIR, ME, and CPL are. Don’t forget once you have a rating you have to prolong it every year.

Hello,

I recommend you take type training which is sponsored by airline.

A lot of European companies give their own type rating training to new graduates.

Type rating will be a burden for you without 500 or 1000 hours on A320/B737/etc.

Actually even the first officers that have 500 hours on A320/B737 are in danger. Because many small charter airlines are in trouble due to the coronavirus at the moment.

This depends on so many factors, not least, how the industry is doing for experienced candidates....which right now, there is a glut of.
Whether or not the European carriers, especially the low cost ones, are going to be more interested in hiring experience, or in hiring low time guys is anyone's guess. On the one hand, it would be sensible to hire experience, it would make training easier and more cost effective, as well as adding to safety. On the other hand, experienced guys are less likely to tolerate poor conditions and BS, so some low costs may be more inclined to take low time pilots as they will be more easily controlled, and have less to compare their ****ty conditions/treatment to.
If the majority of carriers decide to hire the experienced guys first, then I'd say 1500 on a C172 is going to be more beneficial, as you're more likely to pick up a job flying a turboprop with this, not to mention, if you go that route, you'll pick up valuable decision making skills, as well as hand-flying skills which, I don't care what anyone says, you will NOT pick up in the RHS of an A320. Those skills will help you a lot in your simulator checks once you are flying that jet. It will also make you appreciate your job on that jet far more when you do get there, and probably make you less insufferable for the majority of captains! ;-)

On the other hand, it can't be denied that most of us want to get into that jet as soon as possible, IF airlines decide to go with the "cadet" route and hire low time guys, then obviously a type rating on said jet will make you more employable in what is going to be a VERY competitive market.

On the whole I'd probably say 1500 hours in a C172, or better still, 500 in a C172 and 500 in a twin, will get you a job somewhere, whereas the 350 hour option will be a risk. Unless you're a sponsored cadet with a "guarantee" (airlines use that term loosely sometimes so be careful) of joining an airline once graduated, I'd say option 1 is your best bet.
Good luck out there, this is a cruel industry.

Yes you can renew the medical without even flying. If you are under 40, while the class 1 medical expires after 12 months, it is still then gives you a Class 2 medical for a further 4 years (5 years from the date of initial class 1 issue) . So you don't even need to renew the class 1 immediately at the expiry date, you wait until you need a class 1 again.

Well a bit opinion from Hong Kong.
I dont know whether you guys have heard of "SARS" in 2003. It was also a pandemic disease which had an outbreak in mainly Asia.
Hong Kong was one of the most seriously affected place and the death rate of the disease we had here was up to 15-20%.
At that time, as a major global hub, the number of flights in Hong Kong were decreased by almost 80%.
Of course the crisis ended eventually but there is still no vaccine for the virus up to this day actually. The virus itself just magically disappeared.
One concrete data can be shared is that after the end of the crisis (which lasted for around 4-5 months in 2003), the tourism in Hong Kong had been in its historical low.
And eventually it took us around 3 months after the crisis had ended to restore to the pre-SARS level of passenger flow.

I'm not being too optimistic but what I can say is that once the situation of C-19 is controlled, the industry will definitely recover in a very rapid rate.
So let's cross our fingers and hope that the situation will soon get better.

The rate of recovery will be a function of the “circulation of money”

[first year Economics 1973 by one Dr. Reeky ~ Newcastle]

That in turn is a function of being in employment to earn the money, and the confidence to spend it, and not saving it all for a rainy day.

It follows that (excessive) unemployment will delay recovery.

The reported comment of “Christ” from Boris is the realising that lockdown is a double edged sword.

My money is on a vaccine available by December 2020. The Oxford team seem reasonably confident. Eight other teams also “working on it”

As for the recovery; well, green shoots in Q.2 of 2021.
Even keel Q.3 of 2022

Now that the shock and fear from the pandemic are gradually abating, people have already started thinking about travel. And the number of naysayers who believe in any sort of "new normal" involving far less travel long-term is getting smaller and smaller. Public confidence will be regained not too long after the restrictions are lifted and the economy will most likely recover fairly quickly as it entered the crisis in pretty good overall shape. Sure, there will be a period of re-absorption of experienced pilots into the market, leaving little space for new entrants. Some jets will inevitably have their tails repainted, many personnel will go to bed being employed by one company and wake up being employed by a different one. But saying that there's no future in airline flying and no efforts to enter this profession are worthwhile is pure nonsense.

I would still advise any newbie against going much further than a PPL, the odd hour once or twice a month to keep current and at-home studying of the ATPL subjects (since they require a fair bit of work and it's never too early to get started on that) for at least a year from now. I'm absolutely not saying this in the sense of "steer clear and get into something else". I'm saying it as in "not just yet, have some patience until the dust settles". If you can do a degree in the meantime - fantastic. If not - you can still acquire some valuable new skill or work experience. In some time, flying will be there for you. Just be patient and take your time.

Let this pandemic be a warning to all you wannabe's how quickly your dreams can go up in smoke through no fault of your own. To borrow the ridiculous sums of money required to go on an overpriced course is sheer madness. The travelling public has been treated shoddily by the airlines and travel companies and this has shaken their confidence in making holiday arrangements. Business travel and a limited amount of bucket and spade bookings will not be enough to sustain some airlines so expect to see a few companies go under. This will have a knock-on effect on their recruitment and opportunities will become few for several years. Do not rush and make sure you have a plan B not involving Aviation.

I would say that the mid 2022 is likely to be the earliest that wannabies should consider starting their commercial training if there sufficient indication of improvement. Be super careful about paying up front for any training - there will be lots of financially stressed companies out there. Willie Walsh has just been on LBC - BA won't return to 2019 size until 2024 which is probably a reasonable window for any large companies which survive. Bear in mind that when you do pop out the far end of the training system, salaries may be lower than they have been for the past few years - frequently in times of turmoil, pilot unions are asked to sell the next generation down the river to protect their own contracts by allowing companies to offer a diminished package to new joiners. Personally I have been flying for about 15 years and this is the second time I am having to assess options outside the industry in case I am made redundant. If you are smart enough to fly commercially, you are smart enough to succeed in many other professions which are less turbulent.

two words

good luck

How can you even compare this with the current situation? 'Rapid rate of recovery' and your basing this on the SARS outbreak a few years ago? It is quite dillusional to be honest, I don't know if you've noticed but major carriers are on the verge of bankruptcy atm.
I get that this 'it will get better, just look at [random example]' is a way of cognitive coping for many, but it will only lull newbies into selling their parent's house since their confimation bias will be reinforced by these 'hopeful messages'.

I invite you to take a look at the "European Airline Pilots" FB group to get a sobering view on the situation. created the 31st of may and 10k+ members already.
Fresh F/O's, SFO's, CPTs, ex-mil drivers, all in **** or about to be, meanwhile driving delivery trucks just to get by.
Daily stories of people who just got into RHS, 3-4-5-6 years after finishing their fATPL, now on furlough/dismissed.

Yes it will get better, but just be real.:ugh:

It will get better, that's for sure. But, with all that unemployed experienced crew, a 200-hour junior birdman will be far behind the pack when jobs start coming up - simply because airlines will have so many more convincing candidates to choose from for quite a while. Just put into perspective the fact that former A380 pilots will be applying for the same jobs as you. And that will likely be the case for at least three years from now. Of course, with some degree of variation by region.

So, it's down to you to accept that this will take a bit longer than you hoped for and spend your time and money wisely rather than rush straight into it the moment lockdown is lifted and then spend a year or two struggling with debt, frustration and diminishing skills and knowledge. Whether you will be studying for a degree, starting up your own business, getting vocational training in a trade, working and saving money to do the entire fATPL without getting into any debt or a combination of those - that's up to you. But making the most out of that inevitable waiting time can pay you massive dividends in the long-term run. You can choose to come out of the other end as a well-rounded, financially sound and confident individual with a fATPL. Or you can choose to become a minimum-wage worker with a fATPL, hamstrung with debt, struggling to keep current and devoid of any prospects anytime soon. Your call.

People must be out of their minds if they believe they will have any chance, in the next 3-5 years, against A380 captains or pilots with +3 years experience and rated.

Couldn't agree more! There are lots of slurs being thrown around in threads on this forum. I am sure people could be a bit more cordial - manners cost nothing after all.

Many people are in difficult situations. Take me for example. I am studying for my ATPLs at the moment and would have sat exams this month if it weren't for the cancellation of them. I'm in a real pickle with what to do. My current plan is to sit them as slowly as possible, probably stretching the exams out until next summer. Then to take a break and find a full-time job and see how the market looks after that. Only three years to get the CPL/IR after finishing the exams of course.
Another part of me is thinking that I should just give up now and start again when the market looks like it's picking up.

I don't think there is a right answer, and, TBH, I'd be a little scared to ask here in case someone describes me as an 'idiot' or 'out of my mind'. Nobody is against honest advice, but the way some people put it...

As unpleasant as it is to read that you are delusional and out of your mind and you need to have your head checked, it's usually nothing personal. It's not about you; it's about some colleagues having coping problems and relieving them by preaching doom and gloom all over the place. I've seen that a number of times in real world as well. Many seem to feel some relief by making those around them upset.

There's no denial that the current situation is not pretty and it will not get miraculously sorted by next month. But by moaning about how screwed we are we won't make it any better. So, everyone shall ask themselves two things. First, what do I need to do to survive this financially? Second, how do I keep my skills and knowledge sharp for that day when a suitable job comes up? As long as you have those answered, it's a matter of patience.

The clock starts ticking once the first sitting occurs, and as we don’t know when ‘midnight’ might be, you probably need to delay that clock starting.

Full time job now, and ideally do the necessary without incurring debt. Class One Medical issued?

Gentle hour building, IR(R), night rating, QCC and once the green shoots have firmly established, write the exams, followed by the modular CPL/IR courses.

Just bear in mind, when airlines talk about recovering etc, that is not talking about active recruitment. Retirements will be more frequent than expansion.

Confidence and ‘circulation of money‘ are the essential drivers for recovery.

Are you sure about that?

https://www.iaa.ie/personnel-licensi...t-examinations
''At ATPL level, a pass in the theoretical knowledge examinations will be accepted for the grant of a CPL and/or an Instrument rating (IR) for a period of 36 months, counted from the end of the calendar month when a pass in all required examination papers was achieved. Provided that both a CPL and IR are granted within the aforementioned 36 month period, ATPL level examination results will be accepted for the grant of an ATPL for a period of seven years from the most recent validity date of the IR entered in the CPL.''

Yes, I have a PPL and class 1. I suppose I am quite lucky in some regards. The only money I have paid for upfront at the moment is for the ATPL theory which is pennies in comparison to other parts of training. I have no debt and have already saved up enough money through working to pay all the way through to MCC. For me personally, I've waited a fair while and waiting a few more years to finish at the ideal time is not a massive issue in the grand scheme of things.

Parkfell, you are partly correct, there is an 18 months time limit to complete the exams once the first exam is sat, the 36 months for completing the training starts from when the exams are completed. So yes the clock does start ticking at the first exam effectively.

The SEIR is the perfect placeholder. And cheap, too - the cost of doing the IRR twice effectively. Do that first, then a SE CPL course, and you'll have effectively 'saved' the exams.

Hey guys looking for some advice. Currently I hold a PPL and was about to start sitting my atpl exams. Do you recommend delaying it? My only worry is about the changes they are bringing regarding '100 KSA'. I would be sitting all my exams in Poland

100% delay. There will be no jobs for years and by starting exams you start the clock on getting your ratings. Most airlines are firing and wont be recruiting again for at least 3 years.