I said this would happen!! At the moment all is in our favour ( well me personally!! ) At this rate ill have a realistic chance at buying house in the next 12 months or so and I might get a flying job in the oil crash!!!

The thread seems to be spluttering now, is it finally time for it to slide into page 2?

I have enjoyed reading all the comments and analysis and appreciate peoples different points of view on everything - keep it alive with something sensible, WWW news from the Rivercottage???

Much is being made on the oil price falling from its recent highs, but its only at a 7 week low. Compared to last years price, its still horribly high. The UK economy grew at 0.2% last quarter and brings us perilously close to recession by the year end.

The main reason for spiralling oil prices is speculation by fund managers, now that demand has started to show some signs of easing, its not so attractive, the fund managers have to start looking elsewhere, or accept a reduced return. I do wonder if one or two of them got there fingers burnt.

Halifax cutting interest rates is not much comfort as inflation has now started to take off and unemployment is on the up. I doubt that it will attract new borrowers when the price of electricity, gas, food and transport are escalating, at the same time more and more people are worried about job security.

Industry is already in recession the rest will surely follow by the year end.:sad:

watch your bills go up in august
 

Fuel poverty

The government estimates that 2.5 million households are in fuel poverty - defined as when more than 10% of household income is spent on fuel bills - but watchdog Energywatch says the figure is more than four million.
A 40% rise in average fuel bills would be far higher than expected and would put more pressure on homeowners already struggling with higher food and fuel costs.
However, some analysts believe the increases will be closer to 25%.
It is thought that any price announcements are most likely to come in August, when energy bills are not at the forefront of people's minds. But there is a great reluctance in the industry to be the first to reveal a big rise, so the rises may be unveiled in stages.


Marvelous :ok:

Cuban leader warns of austerity
 

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Cuban leader warns of austerity

Castro has the balls to tell his people the truth.:eek:

BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet

Gatwick to bear the brunt of cutbacks with fuel costs grounding 20% of short-haul flights as airline follows budget rivals' streamlining


BA to clip wings of short-haul fleet - Times Online


In terms of pilots employed in the UK the Big Three are BA, easyJet and Ryanair. Every single one of them has warned that the outlook is bleak. Each have announced capacity cuts. Each is reducing fleet size in the UK. Each has seen its shareprice cut by more than half.

This is as I expected and wrote about last year. Come the Winter you WILL see UK airlines go out of business. Do not use last year, or even this year as a guide to next years pilot wannabe recruitment market. You won't believe how quickly and how badly it can deteriorate and you have to keep those ratings valid and your flying skills current and your debts repaid.

Do not overcommit yourselves.


WWW

And what is less reported is the constant, ever changing capacity reductions in the charter market...

seems that american colleagues will be joining us in the job hunt and ryanair was already meeting some of them

http://www.pprune.org/forums/terms-e...es-pilots.html

Sorry to say so but that is not applicable to mainland Europe and the U.S.

The charter market is doing exceptionally well, even here in the U.S.
Most pilots who are furloughed by the majors are jumping onto charter airlines. It might be just a temporary summer thing but until now, the charter market has seen no capacity reduction at all.

The TUI group is still adding aircraft and hiring pilots (except for Thomsonfly).

Now, I know that the UK charter market is doing pretty bad, but what applies to the UK does not necessarily apply to the whole world. The very strong presence of LCC's in the UK has alot do with that.

And with the way the US dollar is at the moment MOL will be using that to screw the guys and gals heading east big time. Will be a further erosion across the industry and provide our CEO's with more ammunition to fire at our unions at the next pay rounds.

Ryanair stock price down nearly 20% on a MASSIVE profit warning today.... you optimists who think their fleet expansion plans will continue unhindered are smoking the good stuff....

UPDATE 3-Ryanair fare cuts may mean first loss since 1989 | Reuters

Even MOL is starting to look out of his depth in this downturn... :uhoh: :mad:... pointing to a big expected fall in passenger yields both over the winter and interestingly this summer... another (significant) crack forms in the outlook.

Can't imagine this will be good news for wanabee jobs... merger typically = job losses or at best a recruitment freeze

The news flow has taken a dramatic turn for the worst in regard to the wanabee job market over the past week if you ask me...

British Airways and Iberia confirm merger talks - Times Online

I reckon BA / Iberia will only be bad news for the duplicate finance / back office / management functions as the operations have such little overlap.

It will be the first major airline merger in history that does not impact on pilot recruitment at the airlines involved if that is the case. Especially as this is arguably a defensive merger as we move into a downturn

If your history revolves around the past few months, you'd be correct.

The SN/VEX merger that took place last year, the Sabena/Swissair merger, the JAL/JAS merger are but a few examples of mergers that saw no effect on pilot recruitment. When LH acquired LX, a more extreme case, we actually saw an increase in pilot jobs.

The BA/IB merger has been a rumour for a couple of years already and I doubt that BA is in a financial position to make this happen. It's all about the lucrative markets of South America and to a minor extent, Africa.

BA profits 20% down, I wonder what its gonno be in 6 months?

I think BA profits are down 88%

BBC NEWS | Business | Soaring fuel bill hits BA profits

Final call for more than 50 airlines

Does anyone know where can I find this list ?
Cheers
LC

YeeeeeeeHa!
 

Deary Me....

BBC NEWS | Business | Warning as HSBC profits fall 28%

You could argue that the difference between $14 billion and $10 billion is a bit abstract, but 30% knocked off a worldwide major banking organization...

:}:}

It hasn't actually been knocked-off the organisation; they still made a profit, albeit 30% less than before.

That wasn't brilliantly written, was it? :hmm:

Still 28% off profits is quite a steep drop

:uhoh:

This is the worst airline crisis since 1991. That is all you really need to know. Plan accordingly.

WWW

ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.

That's becoming increasingly apparent! I can only hope any improvement comes in time for me to moot a career change before age gets the better of me...

I would agree with WWW, now approaching the back-end of 2008, I would be tempted to put off any financial commitment towards training until next year...this winter is going to be interesting to watch...

But to quote Mt Stephen Green, HSBC Chairman:
Right, early morning Benidorm for me!http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/er...smiley-012.gif

Oil price coming off but still biting.... horrible numbers from Air France-KLM and Iberia... Iberia and Air France-KLM profits hit by soaring oil price - Times Online

The oil price is the smoke and mirrors show that distracts investors from the real problem - the recession and the collapse in bookings stemming from that.

A couple of tenners or a couple of hundred quid fuel surcharge are peanuts in the overall travel/leisure spend. Its the fact that the recession and house price crash will result in people not going on trips AT ALL at ANY PRICE that is the intractable issue the airlines don't really like to talk about.

Oil could go right back to £10 but the resulting £15 quid off a low cost flight to Spain or £200 of fuel surcharge being removed from a long haul flight ain't going to entice someone to travel whose overtime has been cancelled, job is under threat, house is in negative equity or company has gone bust. And there will be millions of those.

The biggest credit bubble the world has ever seen by several factors is contracting. It has gone about one third of the way.

If that.


WWW

Optomistic thread. Thanks a bunch.
 

Well thats it then! I give up!! Gonna take up smoking and heavy drinking. Also I feel a little sciatica coming on so im off down to the DSS.:ok:
By the way, has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.

I'd love to know if the state of the economy has effected places like Oxford Aviation Academy and Cabair's intake. A friend of mine has pulled his place at OAA for September. A good idea IMO.

S88:ok:

has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.
 

Hear Hear!

We need the sage and balanced viewpoint of this, proon's most valued commentator, to guide us through these times of woe...


:}:}:}

Oil really is taking a dunt now...closed trading at $118 dollars per barrel today.

Intersting article confirming what we knew of the now present surplus from another Ppruner.

Pilot shortage moves to pilot surplus

Certainly is a worrying time, things do not look good and to make matters worse my dad has just been made redundant after ten years service...no prizes for guessing which industry, although it will probably take two guesses! ;)

I apologise if this has already been said, but unless you are going the integrated route, training is not all or nothing. You could do the PPL and start hour building, do your three hundred mile cross country and even your multi rating while waiting for the economy to bottom out. The clock only starts ticking once you've passed the last of the ATPL writtens.

Mr WWW.
When do you think (guess) the upturn will start?
Trying to plan future school start:)

Regards
Eikido

eikido

2011/12, but will be dependant on what the winter months will hold for a few airlines.

haven't posted in a while because i finally started at oxford and let me say it's the best thing i've ever done (i hope i'll be saying that when i graduate http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/c...nfused0024.gif)

UK mortgage lending 'levels off'

cheer up it's not all bad http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/love/love0028.gif

Heli-port,

I hope you're not saying that you love ground school. That would be sick! :eek:

61 pages and WWW is still banging out the doom and gloom.............. High time this thread was put to bed along with WWW's predictions on oil at $200 a barrel by Christmas.

As yet I have not seen the end of the world as we know it, Negative equity is just a state of mind unless you intend to sell right now, the economic slowdown is happening but it is mostly due to panic and the real danger is to the low service (sorry low cost) sector that is going to loose the three or four week end trips that people do each year, not the charter operators who service the "main" family holiday market. the truth is that most of the chavs would sell granny before giving up the families two weeks in the sun!

"Put to bed" I think that's for the sake of those of you who are still fearful that WWW and his clan might just say something that you don't wish to hear. It's important to take it on the chin and actually ponder over the facts and indeed an informed opinion or two such as our dear moderator's :p

Sure the prediction of oil of $200 a barrel isn't an exacting target even speculators can't be that accurate, it's all a best guess theory game if you see what I mean. Nevertheless closer inspection of the oil price will show it's willingness to leap upwards faster than it recedes back into the shadows just above the $100 mark. It is still armed for an explosion especially as the Iran issue is far from resolved and with an election coming about in just a few months over in the US they may well kick off the party earlier rather than later. It will send oil up like a space shuttle lauch and fuel inflation to dizzy heights. Aviation is like a kid with all manner of allergies and always in the process of suffering from something or another and any economic variable that begins heading south has an effect. Unlike other industries that can manoeuvre into other revenue streams aviation can't it simply flies people and cargo and there's not much else it can do. It cannot shift premises like high street stores or merge cinemas, restaurants, bars, bowling allies into a single complex or concentrate on non-food items to boost fortunes. Thus it's quite a slow moving target that is all too easily engulfed in any economic storm.

The issue of putting it to bed is one that I can symphathise with but we need to keep it open whilst the global economic events unfold by the day, week and month so that wannabes and even experienced drivers know the score out there in the wilderness. However it's not your role to convert WWW you need to accept that he has his standpoint and views and that will actually help to define/justify yours relative to his. It's just a simple discussion we are having here peeps so please don't get upset it's for the benefit and knowledge of all. Just be cool. :p

Come on boogie down :p

b-n's summed it up nicely imo. Don't shoot the messenger because he's the bearer of bad tidings, take on board the words of experience and plan accordingly. I've done all this crap once before and in the future I am planning on doing it all again :ugh:, don't ask me why I, I wont tell you. What I will tell you is that i've seen this all before as i'm sure www has and his advice backs up what I am hearing from a few of friends of mine who are flight crew. At least one large UK airline (I wont say which in case it contrvines PPRUNE t's & c's) is offering either early retirement/voluntary redundancy (I don't recall which) as well as unpaid leave, i'm sure if you ask around though you'll find out easily enough.

One glimmer of good news is that Ryan Air has aircraft still to be delivered from the factory and will still be growing but not at the rate it was originally intending or at a slower rate (source BBC radio). The bad news there is I heard that Ryan Air are looking to other airlines (AA?) who are laying off to fill their vacancies (source PPRUNE, probably Rumours and News).

My advice would be to heed WW's advice and hold fire on the exams, i've seen lots of students finish with a frozen ATPL during a down turn and have no where to go, i've lost touch with most over the years but afaik some did get jobs after several years (during the last up turn) but others are still trying or have given up. Maximise your chances by trying to finish up when the next up turn is upon us (dragging out your training if necessary).

It doesn't help anyone to accuse those who tell it like it is of being doom and gloom mongers just because you don't like what you are hearing. The advice may not be entirely altruistic in that they may be seeking employment themselves (I don't know) and they don't need loads more wet behind the ears wannabees flooding the market but the advice is genuine and realistic.