Saccade - a really interesting post. I like the facts. It sounds as though you know what you are talking about, unlike others on this thread.

Ditto with no sponsor - excellent reading saccade thanks...

Something i've thought about alot since I started on the wide bodies - when my Plog say's the burn alone is 52 tonnes:eek:

Interesting :- http://www.pilotcareercentre.com/Upd...?UpdateID=2378

All this negativity, but people in airlines I have spoke to seem to think there is a lot of movement at the moment, and jobs comming available as people move on.... (dont shoot the messenger!)

HZ123
 

Quote
On another note I have seen a decline in GA / leisure flying for the last couple of years and it was particularly noticeable last summer. Is this reflected worldwide.

Interesting comment but from my own perspective last year the major factor was the weather, bookings were stable but I was unable to convert them into flying hours was due to the weather.

This year is a little different I now have a shift in business from leasure flying to people getting licences or hours building towards the fATPL. I suspect this is due to the credit crunch with more people taking the modular route.

Things will no doubt be a little slow for the next 18 months or so but not as bleek as the forums OIC doom & gloom would have it or as bright as things are on the planet Zog........ the place that Nich-Av seems to be orbiting!

Just had a conversation with an airline related bod who reckoned that at an oil price of $120 that Ryanair would struggle to make a profit over the next 18 months as would BA. Anyone is these airlines got a view on this??

Also I see Eos has gone under..... GULP! So who exactly is still recruiting at any sort of pace? Easyjet clearly isn't... anyone who is currently interviewing care to share any info?

oil hit a new record agian today with many saying $150 - $200 price is 6months to 2 years off. If this is the case then we are in for a rocky ride. :mad:

Oil Price?
 

Have you stopped to look at the Euro price of oil?

Why would someone bother to invest in Silverjet?

Have you stopped to ask why the likes of Ryanair are not hedging fuel at the moment?

May be it is because they think the oil price will come down when the panic mode runs out of steam.

Also the prices banded about on this forum do not properly represent the market as the quality of the oil has an effect on the price and just quoting the cost of "oil" without reference to the type of oil distorts the picture.

This thread has become the dustbin for all sorts of uninformed comment and recycled press clippings from armchair experts who seem to love a doom & gloom story.

Pilots are usualy not experts on everything and just as we all are shocked and outraged by the things published in the press about aviation what do you think that the real financial experts in the city would think of most of the posts above?

A & C

As a pilot i agree i am not an expert on everything- far from it- however, JP Morgan chase are certainly experts in commodity prices and it is they that have predicted the $200 oil price within 2 years. Is is they that predicted the $50 - $100 oil price we have now; which was unthinkable 2 years ago!!
As for the euro oil price - well thats largely irrelevent as oil is priced in $US. I know certain countries would prefer to be paid in Euros (Iran) but unfortunately at the moment OPec deals in Us$.

Don't know Ryanair isn't hedging?

Your statement about the quaility of the oil is a bit odd. What ever the semantics; we are stuck with the price of Brent, Us crude as traded on the international commodities markets. That is what one has to pay to fuel the jets. QED.

Yes there is a lot of doom and gloom on here, my own opinion is we are heading for resession - April stats were out yesterday and BA traffic figues were down almost 8% (some of that maybe due to T5) - not a good outlook.
I don't care really what you choose to believe- my seat is prety safe and i have little credit.
To quote A certain Derek Trotter "there's none so blind as them that won't listen" :\

a&c - I certainly take your point that I am not an economcs professional but merely a pilot. Nevertheless. My lunch today with an old friend on Lombard St did nothing to change my view on an economic recession. The CIPS data today is the worst since march 2003. Label people as ignorant doom and gloom types and you beg the question what is your expertise and invite the label of boom & bull.

I like your contributions though and want to read more. You'll have go be a little more reasoned though.

Ta

www

If oil hits $200 a barrel....I would be almost certain that within 12 months around half the current airlines operating in the EU will cease to exist.

It IS happening lads.
 

http://www.euromanx.com/news.php

Now I know they've had their problems over the years, but it's no coincidence that it's now they've gone. If I was getting into this industry at this time, I'd be bloody sure I had a sensible plan B!

WWW
 

I think that you may have the wrong person, it is Nick-Av (or what ever he calls himself this week) that is up for the Boom & Bull line.

My take on the whole thing is that the situation is far better than the worst doom & gloom forcasts on this thread, there is no doubt that things are slowing down and descretional spending is lower due to a number of factors that have been outlined above.

However things are not the same as in 80's, the world economy has moved on, the USA is not the only big player with the economys of the far east having far more influence along with the Euro zone (inside the Euro zone the price of oil is not such an issue due to the strong Euro vs US$).

As for the $200 barrel of oil don't you think that some traders are pushing this line because they did some panic buying a week or two back and would take a very hard hit if the price of oil dropped by even a few $ ?. Oil is like gold it is seen as a safe haven for money when things get tough and so the price rises and as the panic subsides the price drops back. (just the opposite of the UK house market!!)

However this is so much pilot opinion I,m flying with a guy from the city at the weekend and I will see if in his (more expert) opinion things are as bad as some on this forum would have us think.

Actually...it is!

This airline has been on it's way out for the past 12 months. I'm afraid an example of mis-management/poor planning and intense competition from someone as sound as JF/FlyBe. The EMX business plan didn't stand a chance since FlyBe's arrival - on an Island, airlinks are vital, especially to a principality...

I would not chalk this one down to a downturn in the economy/aviation industry...

I agree with you JB to an extent. The airline has been, well shall we say not the best managed over the last number of years, and the intense competition with an operator such as Flybe has invariably put the writing on the wall for some time. But then you add on the problems with the general economic downturn, fuel prices etc etc, and only in my humble opinion, they were contributory factors to the timing of it, and I dont believe that EMX will be unique this year.

The circumstances leading to their demise certainly had alot to do with the management of the airline, however even better managed airlines, particularly in the lo-co sector (but not exclusively) are finding it tough and I wouldnt be surprised to see at least one reasonably sized airline fall by the wayside by the years end.

Not being doom and gloom, I just think similar to the housing market, the UK airline market has seen a remarkable boom over the last few years, with what seems everyone jumping on the bandwagon to start a new airline or at least subsidiary, and personally I dont believe it (the market) can be sustained in these circumstances.

Ryanair, easyJet and flyBe are here to stay, but excluding the legacy and charter carriers how many more names will disappear over the next 12-18 months?

The likes of Air Southwest, BMI Baby, BMI Regional, Eastern, Jet2, Loganair (OK for the moment with flybe franchise) could find it tough - not going bust, but ripe for takeover. Lets hope they all make it through to 2009/2010.

EasyJet shares plummet on profit warning

Airline shares fell sharply this morning after budget carrier easyJet warned that higher fuel prices will dent its profits this year.

EasyJet said that if oil prices stay at their current levels its fuel bill for the second half of the year will increase by £45m. "It is unlikely that such a large and immediate fuel increase could be mitigated in the short term by revenue improvements and cost actions, therefore pre-tax profits for the full year would be below previous guidance," the company said.

EasyJet shares plummeted more than 16% this morning and later traded down nearly 10%, or 35.75p, at 339.25p. Budget rival Ryanair dropped 5.64% while British Airways shares were down 3.15% at 223p.

UBS analyst Tim Marshall downgraded his forecast for this year by 25%, next year by 41% and the following year by 40%.

"First-half results will be in line with our expectations, however it is pretty obvious that if the recent significant rise in the fuel price is maintained then our second-half profits will be lower than we had previously expected," said easyJet chief executive Andy Harrison. "Of course the price of fuel will hit all airlines and we remain convinced ... that we shall emerge as winners in a high oil price environment."

Oil prices have surged to hit fresh record highs in recent months amid turmoil in world stock markets. The cost of crude breached $110 a barrel last week.

The forward price for jet fuel this summer has ballooned to $1,000 a tonne from $840 a tonne at the beginning of last month, easyJet said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....profitwarning

we are in a full speed housing crash. Today an Agent knocked 50k off the asking price of a house I viewed 6 months ago. He also indicates that offers would be welcome..

Falling house prices have always resulted in recessions in the UK. Recessions always lead to airlines going bust. Euromanx is but the canary in the coalmine... How many airlines go bust at the START of the summer season?

If you are a wanabee you need to protect yourself.

This is 1990.

WWW

Can't resist throwing this in.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3900124.ece

:}

Do a search on pilot jobs in India and you will find that they have closed the door now to expats so don't get your hopes up. Its a localised problem and not reflective of the state of play for wannabes in the UK or western Europe.

Incidentally those Euromanx guys and gals will now be taking those ATR and TP jobs that more than likely would have been filled by 250hr first timers with the likes of Air Southwest Aer Arann etc. If more airlines go bust then there will be lots of experienced pilots around scratching for work.