I'd heard from several sources inside the airline that easyjet were taking 16 CTC cadets on to the 320 LGW fleet at the end of May. I don't know if thats the case still or not, since plans seem to be evolving almost daily in response to the price of oil.

Interesting what WWW mentions about reducing pilot numbers at EZY. I can't see people being made redundant personally, not with the number of new aircraft coming in to the fleet. AH does allude to the possibility or rather probability that recruitment is going to stop to try to control crew numbers. Even then, surely SOME recruitment will still be required this year, just on a far smaller scale?

V2

With apologies to the FT again - just published:

EADS and Boeing

Published: May 14 2008 09:42 | Last updated: May 14 2008 15:11

At the end of a night of partying, only your real friends are still there when the bill arrives. EADS is currently popular. In its first quarter results on Wednesday, order levels at Airbus were again phenomenal. Almost 400 planes have been ordered in the first four months, continuing the record demand for aircraft seen in 2007. Together with Boeing, the plane manufactures have a order backlog equivalent to almost eight year’s worth of production.

Unfortunately, the airlines are flaky customers. Order backlogs always build up towards the end of a boom when cash is flowing. Then orders tail off, and deferrals start as airline profits suffer. There is a lag, as once work has begun on a plane, and the pre-delivery deposit paid, it makes little sense to cancel an order. But aircraft deliveries start to fall 18 months to two years after a downturn begins – typically dropping by at least 40 per cent from peak to trough.

The broader spread of customers this time offers some hope that the magnitude of any downturn will be more moderate. Asia and the Middle East account for only a quarter of the existing fleet, but around 40 per cent of orders. Low-cost start ups in the Indian market look vulnerable, but well capitalised and state backed carriers in China and the Gulf should not struggle.

Yet annual passenger growth has only been negative twice in the history of aviation – after the first Gulf war, and post September 11 2001. This has not prevented violent swings in airline profitability, or aircraft manufacturer volumes. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the airline industry will produce earnings of $4.5bn this year, but based upon an oil price of $86 per barrel – or a total fuel bill of $156bn. With crude at $126, ticket prices have to go up. If this happens at the same time as capacity is rising and global economic growth slows, more airline failures seem inevitable. The enthusiastic clamour for planes seems unlikely to last.

The most ridiculous article I have ever read.
I'd love to know the source of the article.

What a huge amount of speculation...
An amateur analyst who gives no evidence to back his claims. Are the media allowed to post such non-sense?

Here's the evidence that it's a huge lie: http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/o...nd_deliveries/

Click O&D 1974-2007 and you'll see real facts about Airbus.

Is there a drop of deliveries 2 years after 2001? NO.

Also, I think that before posting such articles, the posters on this forum should check the facts. By fueling such articles you are giving the media a chance to forward false rumours.
One single media journalist claims that his predictions are better than airline fleet analysts at airlines worldwide who have orders for more than 12000 commercial aircraft to be delivered in the next decade.

Absolute non-sense.

Brief UK overview...
 

Not sure TCA's shortfall of crew will be covered by a "gaggle" of CTC cadets but recruitment may be asking for type rated guys/gals again - which they will get...

People will always leave easyJet...

Don't expect TUI UK to recruit for the next few years...

As I said before, I would expect next "boom" to be 2010 more likely 2011 when certain airlines begin receiving B787's (hopefully!):rolleyes:

That is indeed what I expect as well.
Can't say for sure beyond that due to lack of data, but I suppose the A350XWB deliveries hopefully starting in 2013, the C-series and the MRJ entering service would do no bad to the industry.

I think that though all these new jets are coming to replace previous generation aircraft like the B744, B767, B757, A340, A330, Avro RJ, ERJ, etc... these aircraft will not end-up in the desert immediately but be picked up by freighters, 3rd world airlines and airlines in need of immediate growth... overall it should result in a capacity increase rather than direct replacement.

People will always join easyJet as well... Whatever that means.

Difficult to know where to start with todays news. It really couldn't be spelled out more clearly for Wannabes. Its not just me and some crank internet sources. This is the chief economic editor of The Times, the Governor of the Bank of England and the BBC all saying "Crisis", "Recession" and "Housing Crash".

I'll admit that this is happening faster than I expected. I shudder to think what 2008 is going to look like as the secondary effects kick in. Hyperinflation, Depression or Stagflation - I can see an argument for each or none.

There is certainly the risk of a very big mess developing for Wannabes.

Whatever your exact circumstance I would suggest that there is absolutely NO pressure now to crack on with your training in any degree of haste. If a more leisurely option is also cheaper then so much the better.

WWW


Links:

http://tinyurl.com/6ggekw Daily Telegraph


Recession danger is real, warns Mervyn King

The British economy faces the real risk of falling into recession, the Governor of the Bank of England has admitted.

Mervyn King warned families to brace themselves for a further "squeeze" on household finances as rising energy bills and food prices continue to rise.

The Governor - who said that "the nice decade is behind us" - also warned homeowners that property prices would fall further and that it was impossible to predict the scale of the decline.




http://tinyurl.com/5o676o The Times, Anatole Kaletsky

..literally unprecedented in the history of modern British government, sets the stage for economic and political disaster.




http://tinyurl.com/6fgm67 The BBC

Britons on the Costa del Sol are suffering a measure of the pain which the end of the housing boom is causing across the wider Spanish economy.
Estate agents report that house prices have fallen 30% in many areas; economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards.

Unemployment is rising and predicted to reach at least 10% by the end of the year.

Brilliant phrase - sounds like something that happens to a groom before his wedding :ok:

WWW
 

You realy are over egging the pudding, I to listened to the Governer of the Bank of England and the message that I got was not the Hyper Mega gloom & doom that your post insists is going to happen.

The guy warned of lower house pices (hooray ! at last people can afford to buy a house and not have to starve to afford it!) rising inflation and a pressure to keep wages down.

It was his opinion that growth would slow but the UK would NOT go into recession.

I think it is time for you to turn on the ears and listen to the whole story, yes things are going to get a bit tough on the economic front but it will not be so bad that you have to start inventing new words for it!

A ABN AMRO bank analyst said that oil would rise to 300$ soon.

I sincerely hope it does, there are enough technologies out there to create cleaner energy at lower price. Finally some money could be invested into research and hopefully researchers could master the nuclear fusion concept. Nuclear fusion could power jet engines safely and cleanly...the only issue is power containment.
Since fuel will no longer be needed , the aircraft could trade the fuel mass for a containment system of similar mass.
Imagine that one cup of fusion fuel could generate enough energy to keep a jumbo jet flying years without landing.

A nice article for those interested: http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...ls/dn8827.html

If oil goes to 300$, they will have no other choice.

I'm not sure they will get them, Its going to be at least 10 years to command for anyone joining now, the pension is rubbish at best for new comers, and the level of concessions available is dropping. In fact, if I was at easy, I wouldn't leave for a job with TC. The package on offer is dire! And unless you joined before 2006 (final salary pension, and decent concessions) there is very little keeping you at TC for the ten years its going to take to get you into the LHS.

Anyway, back to the thread in hand.....

WWW, Your a big grizzly and you know it!!! ;)

A and C - when Central Bankers speak you have to interpret what they say. There is a whole industry of people out there who speak Central Banker. The general principle is that they try to make any statement as bland, as innocuous and as boring as possible. Coded phrases are used and certain words are carefully avoided. For Merv to use "the R threat is real" phrase and to say what he did in the way he did was explosive stuff for a Central Banker. I like the fellow and think he's doing a great job.

When the Governor of the BoE is saying he thinks a Recession will be avoided then in Central Banking terms he may as well have been standing on a platform with klaxons blaring, red lights flashing and a tin helmet strapped to his head.

I didn't make Stagflation up. See the wiki reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Stagflation is a macroeconomics term used to describe a period of inflation combined with stagnation (that is, slow economic growth and rising unemployment), generally including recession.[1] The portmanteau term "stagflation" is generally attributed to United Kingdom Conservative MP and later Chancellor of the Exchequer Iain Macleod, who coined the term in a speech to Parliament in 1965

The article goes on to illustrate exactly where we are now. Stagflation leading to recession. I think that eventually we will see deflation as the house price asset bubble subsides by a nominal value of 20% and in real terms by about 40%.

The inflation Genie is out of the bottle around the world and the only painful cure is a deep recessionary period and unemployment. Here's a list - this is already resulting in food riots and if it continues could result in widespread civil unrest. Many of these countries are oil exporters..

Venezuela (22pc), Vietnam (21pc), Latvia (18pc), Qatar (17pc), Pakistan (17pc), Egypt (16pc) Bulgaria (15pc), The Emirates (11pc), Estonia (11pc), Turkey (9.7), Indonesia (9pc) Saudi Arabia (9.6pc), Argentina (8.9pc), Romania (8.6pc), China (8.5pc), Philippines (8.3pc), India (7.6pc).


WWW

More bad news
 

Zimbabwe 10000000%

That was the consensus in the US in October, and look where we are now...

WWW
 

I will conceede that some statments require "interpritation" i think that I once wrote in a Tech log "valve percussed" ops normal!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7404085.stm

BA sees profit soar by 45%. So its not ALL doom and gloom. :-)


WWW

i imagine the T5 write downs will not be included !

The news rolls in relentlessly.

http://tinyurl.com/4yyass


From todays Times:

BA forced to consider £900m fall in profit

BA's profits are expected to collapse in the coming months as the sustained high price of oil pushes up its costs... This pessimistic outlook stunned investors who said it demonstrated how serious the coming downturn could be... “They are effectively admitting that profits could be zero in the worst-case scenario. There is clearly a lot of bad news to come.”... Mr Walsh told The Times: “Oil costs are going to change the industry, there is not doubt about it. A lot of airlines are going to struggle and some may be unable to cope. We have already seen failures and I think we are going to see more.”

The boss of Ryanair, easyJet and BA are now ON RECORD saying airlines are going to go bust soon. I don't know what clearer signal Wannabes could hope to receive.

There will be NO JOBS soon. Plan and spend accordingly.


WWW

People are really going over the top here and losing the run of themselves.Certain airlines will be worse off than others so to say something like 'there will be no jobs' is pure crap.

If recession does kick in to the effect which some people think it will then what will happen?Well firstly demand for oil will fall hence the price will stay static or fall slightly.Secondly people trade down when times are tuff,people will fly low cost such as ryanair,easy etc.Thirdly with a clear out of struggling companies that means less competition and possibly higher load factors for the stronger companies.Finally the companies with really strong balance sheets will prevail.Why?Well boeing and airbus will be forced to slash there prices if demand falls hence strong companies can get there hands on planes for cheap and in bulk hence more pilots needed.

Low cost carriers with strong balance sheets will need pilots,more expensive 'exclusive' airlines may tighten the belt and hold out on recruitment.

Thats my 2 cent worth,in my view no need for a major panic amongst people starting to train.:ok:

As a 20yr old Wannabe you frankly know Jack about this industry and your naive misplaced optimism is symptomatic of the massive complacency that is riven within Wannabeism.

There will be no jobs for no-time wannabes the day after the first UK airline goes bust.

Your touching belief that the airline industry will be saved by a recession that brings down the price of oil is extraordinary. The recession that bring the oil price down (though I don't see why it will fall far given the industrialisation of China & India) will put thousands of experienced pilots on the dole. Your 175hr log book and £60k HSBC loan will not be a great deal of use to your career as a 4 star burger flipper supervisor in the retail park McDonalds franchise.

Whilst the LoCos might pick up some pax trading down from more expensive carriers they will lose far more in discretionary sales. Given that most of the profit comes from selling tea and coffee at 37,000ft it doesn't even need people to stop flying to cripple the business model of some airlines. Bringing a flask is enough.

Be in no doubt that a recession will have the same effect as it did the last time in 1990 - 1993. For reference look up Dan Air and Air Europe to see what happens, how fast and how brutal.

WWW

WWW - Now here's a thread to get your teeth into...! ;)

I remember the recession affects in the early 90's. Next to no jobs for years. Folks had to go to the Middle East or Asia to get a look-in. Only those with extensive experience got a start.

I remember the crash in 2001-2002 as well. Nothing was available. Again, only those with thousands of hours had a chance. Most had to either go to NetJets Europe or head to the ME or Asia.

Contractors will be let go. Thin routes will be let go. Last in first out. Keep a very close weather eye on your own situation. Minimise your own exposure to debt based on future earnings.

FOR THE ATTENTION OF WWW :ok: :


1. First things first doing type rating with a company in next few weeks so nearly not a wannabe, but enough about me,quite frankly who cares.

2.Your smart ass comments are not well placed,your obviously a negative person riven by pessimistic views i couldnt be more different in mindset(so we will obviously differ in opinion).I feel your points are negative in the extreme.:{

3.Yeah sure you may have more airline knowledge im certainly not disputing that,however airlines are businesses full f$$$in stop,and like bloody humans its survival of the fittest.

You said:There will be no jobs for no-time wannabes the day after the first UK airline goes bust.

Well go ahead and give me 3 reasons how a small regional( in lets say, oh i dunno, isle of man)going bust will have such a drastic effect on big low cost or strong 'exclusive' airlines????thats right b$lix

researching low cost carriers recent quarterly and annual results its obvious that there is a slowdown.we all f$$$in know that . However and this is the key,most of the low cost airlines are reporting a drop in PROFITS so i presume your overlooking the fact that these airlines are still making handsome PROFITS albeit less than previously.You go ahead and give me 3 BIG low cost airlines in europe that are reporting significant full year losses as opposed to falls in PROFITS.

Lets look at balance sheets and a trip down memory lane perhaps.After 9/11 what happened.1.people traded down to low cost so good buy expensive airlines(cue Swiss) 2. LATE 2001 a certain low cost carrier ordered 155 planes as a result of strong cash reserves = more pilots over next few years needed. this move was followed by others=more pilots over the next few years

You Said:Be in no doubt that a recession will have the same effect as it did the last time in 1990 - 1993. For reference look up DAN AIR.

My response:

The reasons why Dan Air failed:
1.Among the main reasons for the airline's sudden "financial tailspin" and its ultimate demise were a lack of "vertical integration" with a major UK tour operator
2.Another important reason that was said to have contributed to Dan-Air's failure was the fact that its fleet contained too many different, incompatible aircraft types, and that some of these planes were considerably older and far less efficient than the latest state-of-the-art aircraft operated by some of its competitors
3.
Furthermore, some industry analysts viewed Dan-Air's decision to embark on a major expansion into scheduled services from its Gatwick base at a time when the UK economy was still mired in the early 1990s recession, the airline's financial position worse rather than improve it.

Dan Airs failure was more to do with crap management ,downturn just amplified the problems.Do you see the big low cost airline management of today making such vile incompetent errors.

Cheers

WWW, you may well be right about everything but, personally, I'm getting a little irritated at the manner in which you deliver the message of doom. It is almost as if you are taking some sort of sick pleasure. Give it a break.

So it IS different this time.

A downturn where more pilots are needed!

I'm off to get a new Porsche despite the boss saying profits might be down by £900m 'going forward'. What does he know, ppfff.

kj990….

Sarcasm - is there really any need..?

Leeds 65,

Good luck in your Type Rating.

However I think you're wrong in your analysis of the current situation. Specifically I dispute your analysis of how airlines are reporting a profits and will simply report lower profits in the future as the higher oil price takes hold.

BA reported a full year profit of £883m for their previous financial year. This year ran 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2008. Reading a few financial reports shows that these results did not reflect the full price of the recent oil price hike as BA had hedged "well over half of that years annual fuel requirements at prices ranging from $82 to $90 a barrel."

Currently oil is trading at approx $126 a barrel. That is 40% higher than the BA upper hedged position of 07/08 of $90 a barrel.

The BA £883m profit is after a £2.1bn fuel bill. If BA have to spend 40% more on fuel in 08/09 this fuel bill would become £2.94bn - an increase of £840m. Which happens to be approximately equal to last years profit.

Also let's not forget that oil is currently trending persistently upwards and other 'experts' have predicted $200 a barrel. Ever increasing fuel prices will turn last years black ink after net profit into FY08/09's red ink for net losses.

Your analysis is looking solely at the past. FR/EZY/BA management along with all other airline management ought to be forward looking. They are worried about where the oil price is going. Ryanair is unhedged at the moment if i'm not mistaken and i don't know about the others. So while you may hope the airlines will simply report reduced profits i think that if oil continues at this high price then they will be reporting losses. We are seeing quarterly reports, and annual reports which are historic looking, wheras management are looking at monthly management accounts, advance bookings, loads and yields, and budgets which will reflect a range of scenarios.

I would guess that chiefly they are worried about what will happen the bottom line if oil is $120 a barrel, or $110 a barrel or $150 a barrel. Also they will be looking at what will happen if the load factor drops or the yield drops as a result of slowing consumer demand.

If the economy continues to slow then pax will surely cut some non essential travel, companies will reduce travel budgets. This will affect all airlines in some shape or form.

EZY and FR will probably pick up some price sensitive travellers who choose a budget carrier for a weekend break and save a few bob on a legacy carrier's fare, but you ignore the potential loss of revenue to the budget carriers some of whose pax simply choose not to fly for the same reason as the BA traveller switched to a low fare carrier. PResumably under pressure with mortgage repayments, petrol, home heating oil, food price increases and whose job security may be under threat.

I believe FR are grounding more aircraft through the winter than was the case last year, the BA announcement said that they were reviewing costs, capacity etc.

The strongest airlines will survive. FR has a cash mountain to ride it out. I presume BA/EZY do also. But you can be certain that Messrs O'Leary, Walsh and Harrison? will be taking steps to ensure that they minimise losses.

WWW is making the point that in the current economic climate that demand for new low houred pilots is certain to decline/cease in the short term. I believe he is right.

From reading this thread and the reactions to many of WWW's comments, many people seem to think that WWW is so pessimistic that he can't sleep at night for worry that the sun might not rise tomorrow. But his words of caution and advice to wannabe's seems to boil down to:

1. Demand for low houred pilots will decline/cease in the near term as a result of the wider fall out from a slowing economy and a rising oil price.
2. Avoid taking on £60k of debt in the anticipation that in 14 months time, with the only qualification to your name being an fATPL you will be able to walk into a RHS and repay £1k a month comfortably.
3. By all means continue training but do it at a pace that your current income enables you to afford whilst not putting the house, car, or family relationships in jeopardy.
4. The FTO's have a vested interest in selling you flight training so whilst they point to an imminent pilot shortage and encourage you to enrol on their course that perhaps the true prospects aren't quite as rosy as they will lead you to believe.

To me they seem sensible words of advice, from someone who is a skipper with a loco, has been an instructor at a big integrated FTO, has at least 10 years experience of the industry at the coal face, who is clearly well versed in economics, and whose wife works for a big bank which I think is a PLC.

This is hardly the ramblings of a drunk at the bar of your local.

Listen to all the advice then make up your own mind. Alternatively clamp the Peltors tightly over your head, ignore that Met and Notams and hope that in 14 months time you walk into the RHS of that A380. Carlsberg don't do pilot recruitment but if they did...

Thanks for that summary Vin - very accurate.

I'm not taking any pleasure in this. A perception that I am is more likely a displacing of anger from what I am saying onto who is saying it i.e. shooting the messenger. My airline will be badly hurt if we have a 1990s style recession. Pay rises won't happen, bonuses won't be paid, share options will not vest, base transfers will not happen and generally life will be a lot less sunny than has been the case in recent years at Weasely Towers. I have close friends who are hanging on by a financial fingernail and a full scale house price crash and recession will them really struggle and possibly lose their home. This is serious stuff.

A major problem with Wannabes is that they often have no idea about history. Most were in school or were a twinkle in their dads eye when the last recession and house price crash hit the UK. There is nobody out there that teaches you about the topic of airlines and recessions. For that reason I do take it upon myself to push out the lessons of history and provide warnings.

I make no apology for that. Its a free world. You can read what I write and ignore it, discount it or believe it. At least you've considered the opinion and then formed your own. Which is the point of this place.

To be a better informed wannabe.

Good luck,


WWW

WWW, as I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the message. Having been in the aviation business for a mere 23 years, I have also seen the highs & lows, suffered the uncertainty of where I will be next week/month/year and, without exception, always seen a recovery. Please do not patronise and assume that I have some form of displaced anger.

My point was the 'school teacher' method of delivery. Anyone who reads the newspapers can see that, in all aspects of life, people will need to think very carefully before spending money in the short/medium term. Please do not assume that everyone who reads your monologues is a spotty teenager just out of school.

Anyway, the Thierlet Diesel malarkey will undoubtedly slow down output from the schools for quite a while.:)

As a middle aged man with decades in the business of aviation then perhaps I can understand that you might find me annoying telling you something you already know plenty about thank you very much. Nevertheless part of the audience is composed of spotty teenagers just out of school.

You are old enough and ugly enough to look after yourself and if I patronise you then you'll just have to dry your own eyes and get over it.

Cheers ;)

WWW

Not sure about that... Diamond is already certificating its own Diesel engine on the DA-50.

If airlines can survive this year, the sun will shine again next year.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS...bia/index.html

Their explanation of limiting volatility is justified. Imagine everyone starting to use alternative fuel or energy because of sky-high oil prices... it would be the end for the Saudi's.


Speaking of alternative energy, it seems that general aviation at least will be spared, no matter what happens with oil. Lycoming is willing to introduce and certificate ethanol piston engines.

http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/04/embraer-sells-i.html

Fair points made all round.We are all entitled to opinions.lets see if it gets really bad in the coming months or not so:ok:

Always look on the bright side of life..:)

Thx WWW & VD for your posts, very enlightning. I am one of those individuals that was a twinkle in my dads eye when the last recession hit and having you explain things clearly is appreciated.

:cool:

So with the demand for oil ever increasing along with the costs, the amount of oil ever decreasing, where does that leave the industry even without the oncoming recession? At $200 a barrel seats will be out of most peoples leagues, any new technology would likely cost so much to implement that most airlines would go bust trying. Whats the future of the industry then? Opinions?

I have been following this thread for a while (in a fingers in ears, eyes shut, while singing LA LA LA kind of a way). However the more I read, the less I can carry on in my state of blissful ignorance.

Having just finished my IR and heavily in debt, I think now is a good time to admit 'I'm scared'. I'm off to find a short pier so I can take a long walk off it.

YS

I am no longer a Wannabe, but perhaps a would-like-to-have-been: having chased the dream for several years (although never undergoing any commercial training), I took the difficult decision not to continue, on the grounds that my age and financial position represented a risk that was higher than I was prepared to accept, coupled with the fact that, painfully - though I cannot be certain - I do not think that my personality is best suited to a career as an airline pilot. I do, however, retain an interest the industry and the situation for people entering it, along with a continuing passion for aviation; and I am finding this thread extremely interesting and illuminating. My question is this: It is clear that the advice (of WWW and others) to people contemplating entering training is to hold off from beginning, or take it slowly, because of the gloomy economic outlook. But what about those who have already started training and are not in a position to vary the speed of the course, ie. those on integrated courses, and those who have a start date that cannot be changed? I appreciate that these people are unfortunately in a much worse situation, but is that anything that they can do to protect themselves, even slightly, from the risk of losing all that money (and the resulting long-term debt) in the name of a qualification that cannot be used?

The only way they can protect themselves is to work as hard as possible to get the best grades and first time passes. This might help them get a recommendation for a job.

They may have to set their sites lower. Rather than believe that a jet job is owed to them that a turboprop job in the back blocks of Scotland is a great offer.

Rather than sit and wait for a job to fall into their laps to get out and head to Africa etc to get any job going.

Now, if they have a huge debt to service they'll need to talk to their bank manager ASAP before they get into trouble. If they can't or won't leave their home to get a flying job then they'll have to accept a non flying job.

Believe it or not, an adventure in Africa or blasting around the Scottish Isles in a turboprop will be fantastic. Only problem, that's not the dream the FTOs sell. :(

My dream is to fly! what and where i fly is not relevant (for now). The only thing i am strictly against is paying for a type rating. :p

Yep...it is! Did it for nearly 3 years, I would recommend it to anyone and everyone...do not set your goals at 'shiny jet' level, there is so much to experience...

I know of 2 guys this month, FI's with less than 500 hours TT who have secured good turbo-prop jobs in the UK...and we just got a 7.2% payrise!!! yellowsubmarine, you've now got the qualifications, secure yourself with some sort of a job, anything! Things are not dead yet, still a bit of 'movement'. We've all been where you are!

So what you are saying is it's going to be crap for a couple of years of £1000 pm repayments Rex?

Rob

Rex - did you miss the part about BA grounding swathes of its fleet this winter?


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3953811.ece


If you would like to point out which of my predictions post Sept 11th 2001 were inaccurate I would be grateful. The job situation for Wannabes was dire for two good years and only really started recovering towards the end of 2003. That was a loooong time if you had to keep renewing your IR and try to maintain some kind of currency.

I know you've got a vested interest insofar as you are already commited to an Integated frzn ATPL path. Please don't resent others trying to help people behind you in the system avoid a similar mistake.

Cheers

WWW