Recession? What recession?
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Recession? What recession?
This from AOL today ...
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UK will narrowly avoid recession - research
New research says the UK economy will narrowly avoid falling into recession.
The Ernst & Young Item Club quarterly forecast says that despite a raft of bleak economic indicators, the UK economy is holding up.
Professor Peter Spencer, economic adviser to the report, said one of the most important elements was the strength of consumer confidence.
He said it was "a bit perplexing" why the UK shopper was still upbeat in the face of so much downbeat economic news.
But he concludes that sound economic fundamentals, such as a firm housing market and falling interest rates, meant British confidence was still high.
The Item Club forecast, which uses the Treasury's model of the economy, said GDP growth would be 2.2% this year, slowing to 2% next year.
But it called on the Bank of England to hold off cutting interests - currently at 4.5% - and said it should instead "wait and see how the economic situation unfolds".
Prof Spencer concedes consumer confidence and the housing market are likely to weaken but added they would be "far from collapse" and, despite the forecast slowdown in growth, it is predicted to move back up to 2.9% in 2003.
But in an interview in the Sunday Times, Sushil Wadhwani, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said rates had to fall further to head off global economic slowdown.
He said: "The evidence we have had since September 11 suggests the global economy was even weaker than we had thought prior to then."
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Cold comfort to those of us already out of work since last month, but nevertheless maybe a sign that things will return to normal sooner than expected ... please God!
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UK will narrowly avoid recession - research
New research says the UK economy will narrowly avoid falling into recession.
The Ernst & Young Item Club quarterly forecast says that despite a raft of bleak economic indicators, the UK economy is holding up.
Professor Peter Spencer, economic adviser to the report, said one of the most important elements was the strength of consumer confidence.
He said it was "a bit perplexing" why the UK shopper was still upbeat in the face of so much downbeat economic news.
But he concludes that sound economic fundamentals, such as a firm housing market and falling interest rates, meant British confidence was still high.
The Item Club forecast, which uses the Treasury's model of the economy, said GDP growth would be 2.2% this year, slowing to 2% next year.
But it called on the Bank of England to hold off cutting interests - currently at 4.5% - and said it should instead "wait and see how the economic situation unfolds".
Prof Spencer concedes consumer confidence and the housing market are likely to weaken but added they would be "far from collapse" and, despite the forecast slowdown in growth, it is predicted to move back up to 2.9% in 2003.
But in an interview in the Sunday Times, Sushil Wadhwani, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, said rates had to fall further to head off global economic slowdown.
He said: "The evidence we have had since September 11 suggests the global economy was even weaker than we had thought prior to then."
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Cold comfort to those of us already out of work since last month, but nevertheless maybe a sign that things will return to normal sooner than expected ... please God!
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Yes, there may be be no recession in the
UK we have low unemplyment, strong and sustainable growth, and low interest rates.
However on a sector by sector basis the
air transport sector is definately experiencing a recession.
Two quarters of negative growth seems likely after 11/9 although Easyjet Go and Ryanair may beg to differ - so it may be a flag carrier recession
The biggest dangers to recovery are
1/ European bale outs of inefficient
flag carriers. Rod Eddington.
2/ The Media - who seems continually disppointed that we are doing so well
3/ Oil prices going up - Conflict in the Middle East
And the biggest problem for UK wannabees
is the influx of JAA licenced type rated
pilots from the EU as the Flag carriers dispense with Engligh speaking crews
most of which will be the younger ones
as they will find it difficult to afford redundancy for the £100,000+ pa guys..
[ 22 October 2001: Message edited by: RVR800 ]
UK we have low unemplyment, strong and sustainable growth, and low interest rates.
However on a sector by sector basis the
air transport sector is definately experiencing a recession.
Two quarters of negative growth seems likely after 11/9 although Easyjet Go and Ryanair may beg to differ - so it may be a flag carrier recession
The biggest dangers to recovery are
1/ European bale outs of inefficient
flag carriers. Rod Eddington.
2/ The Media - who seems continually disppointed that we are doing so well
3/ Oil prices going up - Conflict in the Middle East
And the biggest problem for UK wannabees
is the influx of JAA licenced type rated
pilots from the EU as the Flag carriers dispense with Engligh speaking crews
most of which will be the younger ones
as they will find it difficult to afford redundancy for the £100,000+ pa guys..
[ 22 October 2001: Message edited by: RVR800 ]
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The UK is not in recession due to consumer confidence on the High Street, sadly this is not the case for the airline industry.
With Low interest rates, and a properties maintaining value, the consumer has more disposable income. ie Low interest rates, less incentive to save therefore spend, and lower mortgage repayments. Properties are at their highest for 5 years, people feel confident.
As soon as consumer confidence goes then the UK will dip into recession. Be prepared for more interest rate cuts, which is good if you are a borrower.
Sagey
With Low interest rates, and a properties maintaining value, the consumer has more disposable income. ie Low interest rates, less incentive to save therefore spend, and lower mortgage repayments. Properties are at their highest for 5 years, people feel confident.
As soon as consumer confidence goes then the UK will dip into recession. Be prepared for more interest rate cuts, which is good if you are a borrower.
Sagey
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The transport industry should be able to absorb any negative factor occurring on an individual basis, eg falling passenger numbers OR rising oil prices OR increased security charges.
Unfortunately all are possible at the same time. Worst of all to my mind though is that it appears the insurance companies have been given a free reign to hold the world to ransome.
Unfortunately all are possible at the same time. Worst of all to my mind though is that it appears the insurance companies have been given a free reign to hold the world to ransome.
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I don't see that at all I. The Airline industry was in decline admittedly and some Airlines were culling costs adjusting to the situation.
The World Trade Centre horror has caused a massive economic shock. It could not have been foreseen, and Airlines have had to take some pritty radical action to keep their heads above water.
And arn't fuel prices on the decline anyway hence OPEC debating whether to cut production in an attempt to raise the price of oil.
Sagey
The World Trade Centre horror has caused a massive economic shock. It could not have been foreseen, and Airlines have had to take some pritty radical action to keep their heads above water.
And arn't fuel prices on the decline anyway hence OPEC debating whether to cut production in an attempt to raise the price of oil.
Sagey
I say there boy
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From today's Daily Telegraph...
BBC News 24 announced the full figures - 0.6% in the third quarter, 2.2% annualised.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts 2.3% for full year 2001 and 2.1% for 2002.
This ain't no recession. This is the long-term growth trend of the UK economy, ie. stable sustainable growth.
The Q4 figures will make interesting reading come January. If they have held up, then we should be OK...
(edited to correct and add new figures)
[ 26 October 2001: Message edited by: foghorn ]
Britain's economy grew at a stronger-than-expected 0.6% last quarter, dampening hopes of another interest rate cut.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the economy shot ahead in the third quarter of 2001, growing faster than the forecast 0.5%, and more strongly than the 0.4% recorded in the second quarter.
Royal Bank of Scotland economist Geoffrey Dicks said: "They were surprisingly strong figures".
He said the data showed UK consumer demand was strong enough to keep the economy growing, despite falling manufacturing output and the global economic slowdown.
HSBC economist John Butler said: "This is an impressive number. The UK has outperformed the rest of the G7 for the first half of this year and looks likely to have done the same in the third quarter.
"It gives a reality check about how bad the economy is - there is a lot of doom and gloom around, but the UK is holding up well."
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the economy shot ahead in the third quarter of 2001, growing faster than the forecast 0.5%, and more strongly than the 0.4% recorded in the second quarter.
Royal Bank of Scotland economist Geoffrey Dicks said: "They were surprisingly strong figures".
He said the data showed UK consumer demand was strong enough to keep the economy growing, despite falling manufacturing output and the global economic slowdown.
HSBC economist John Butler said: "This is an impressive number. The UK has outperformed the rest of the G7 for the first half of this year and looks likely to have done the same in the third quarter.
"It gives a reality check about how bad the economy is - there is a lot of doom and gloom around, but the UK is holding up well."
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts 2.3% for full year 2001 and 2.1% for 2002.
This ain't no recession. This is the long-term growth trend of the UK economy, ie. stable sustainable growth.
The Q4 figures will make interesting reading come January. If they have held up, then we should be OK...
(edited to correct and add new figures)
[ 26 October 2001: Message edited by: foghorn ]
We can all play around with statistics but if you are currently out of work in the aviation business then you are in a depression let alone a recession!
I think 2002 is going to be a year of survival (if you can).
I think 2002 is going to be a year of survival (if you can).
I say there boy
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Yes, tell me about it. My sideline of IT is suffering badly as well. Luckily I'm not as badly off as some (at the moment but this won't last long if I stay out of work)
But at least the economic background is better than some would have us believe which bodes well for the future.
foggy.
But at least the economic background is better than some would have us believe which bodes well for the future.
foggy.
