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Why would anyone invest large sums of money in this

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Why would anyone invest large sums of money in this

Old 28th Sep 2021, 23:54
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Why would anyone invest large sums of money in this

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-sing...-flight-crews/

Its happening. Post Max/neo the next single one will be single crew. The A350 is already capable of gate to gate operations pilotless. Has done about 500 hours flight testing already.

Think long and hard about investing money into this game, as if you are 20-30 by the time you are 50 you maybe out of work and too old to retrain…

The airlines are so quiet about it, as imagine if the kids found out, it could turn off the supply of pilots overnight….all apart from O’leary, he has been saying for 20 years he doesn’t want co-pilots…
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 02:23
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does that mean he wants the captains only?
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 02:55
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The airlines are considering requiring the non flying pilot perform cabin duties thus saving a FA.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 04:37
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We not going to see single pilot operations for some time to come. Airbus is talking about cutting down from 4 pilot to 2 on ULR flights, not single pilot operations pe se. Both pilot will still be required in the flight deck for at least another generation, probably 2.

Kindly supply a reference for your statement that A350 is capable of gate to gate pilotless operations. I am aware they only just did the first "auto take-off".....even then I have doubts about how that aeroplane is going to manage an abort and the subsequent evacuation.....I would also love to see how that plane manages to taxi in any airport in Africa. Many concepts are nice in theory but unworkable in practice.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 06:25
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I for one would not get on such a plane, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. No need to worry quite yet.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 10:18
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Agreed, perhaps autonomous/semi autonomous passenger carrying aircraft in another 60 - 100 years, but by which time none of us currently on PPRuNe will be flying any more.

I can see the benefits of reducing the number of ‘cruise pilots’ required on certain long-haul routes. But single pilot/pilotless operations? Not until they’ve proven (over many years) driverless cars and lorries can operate safely without driving their passengers into oncoming traffic/off a cliff.

Driverless trains are simply no comparison. Excuse my ignorance of the job of a train driver, but trains are literally linear and on rails. They go forwards/backwards, speed up, slow down and stop. If there is an unseen or sudden blockage on the line the train goes off the track whether there is a driver there or not. Not quite the same given the huge number of variables in aviation which may lead to a less than ideal ‘day out’, but have proven to be overcome by a team of professional aircrew when the automation is proven next to useless or even potentially a burden to the job at hand.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 12:16
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The autonomous vehicle industry is going through all kinds of turmoil at the moment. Lots of divestment and consolidation from major players including Uber, Google, Toyota and Apple. Why? Because they're realising it's much harder and we're much further away than first thought from achieving levels of safety acceptable to regulators. This is for cars which in many ways are simpler - apparently hazard identification is one of the major stumbling blocks, which may or may not be simpler for aircraft in controlled airspace. But the regulatory requirements will be way tougher so we're many, many years away from pilotless, and probably even single crew commercial flying.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 12:30
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UAV689

They are different, and relatively safe to operate on a line - this has been happening for years on such things like people movers (the DLR too!), so itís not a huge jump to incorporate this into mainline service and people would have less reservations about travelling on them. Give them the option of a trip to Alicante on a pilotless aeroplane and youíll find that although it may cut the cost of having pilots up front, those savings would be more than lost due to the fact that very few people would pay to travel on it.

No doubting the technology is close to being realised, but it would take many decades of proving its safety and viability to change public opinion on it. Fear of flying is a real thing, and quite prevalent (though in most cases not enough to stop people travelling by air). Fear of travelling by train, car, bus? Pretty much unheard of in the same context.

Last edited by pug; 29th Sep 2021 at 12:52.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 13:16
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UAV689

In all weather ops? Some less scaremongering and a bit more reality, please.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 14:01
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You ask why Google, Uber, Apple, Toyota, etc are all giving up on autonomous vehicles ? The answer is simple, they've seen what it takes to achieve it, and they've seen how far ahead Tesla are in achieving it, and they have realised it is game over for them.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-...ned-elon-musk/

Tesla's autonomous programme is delivering results and accelerating its roll out. The technology involved is very transferable to aviation.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 14:10
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Why is everybody having a hissy fit about unmanned commercial aircraft operations? This is about reducing crew.

Single pilot ops will come fast and hard. First in cruise, then for full flight durations in cargo, then on the majority of airliners. The A350 was pretty much conceived with this in mind, and many pilot tasks could have been safely automated in full, but they were left untouched to not shake the status quo too much. Auto go-arounds, auto takeoff, auto anything coming soon to a theatre near you (and mandated by your airline...)

Not the point of this thread, but at some point autonomous flight will roll out more broadly, but the jury's out on application in large passenger transports.

Pilots will become pure system operators, and flying will become cheaper and safer because of it. What remains will be a job like driving a metro, just with a better view and shittier schedules.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 15:13
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It's just a question of time and will. And since it's the will of the bean counters we are talking about I would side with FMS82 that it "will come fast and hard". As for the people stating that they won't board such an aircraft: the same thing was said when the idea of unmanned elevators or metro cars first came up. Passengers won't give a.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 16:02
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The whole thing raises more questions than answers. I agree, it will always rely on what the bean counters want but…

- For single pilot ops, given that most airlines won’t look at an FO for command til they reach the 3000hr mark (and often much more than this) how does one become a captain without ever being an FO? Would work for long haul ‘cruise pilot’ replacement, with hours on end sat monitoring, but short haul?

- Flight deck sickness.. Still a fairly high occurrence where a crew member becomes incapacitated in flight, certainly higher than the regulators ‘acceptable level of risk’. Of course you can argue for removing pilots altogether, but this thread is about single pilot operations…

- Not sure if it’s a universal ‘thing’ but following the Germanwings incident just six years ago, many airlines have a requirement for two people in the cockpit at any one time. For single pilot operations, surely that risk is heightened, as rare as it thankfully is..?

You might argue that the answer is to do away with the idea of a First Officer and just have an accompanying ‘Safety Pilot’ instead. But given the already diminishing T&C’s for FO’s in the U.K. and Europe, I can’t imagine changing job title will provide much of an overall cost saving - which as we all agree is what it’s really all about.

So I believe this is a way of making long-haul services that little bit more economical, sadly with the loss of some opportunities for suitably qualified pilots. However, it’s not the death knell for the pilot role just yet.

TBSC; they also told us the Titanic couldn’t be sunk, and that we’d all be driving around in flying cars and living on Mars by now. Swings and roundabouts… But you’re comparing land based every day modes of transport. Air travel has grown, but the average person on the street will use elevators and trains much more than they fly to the Costa’s..

The technology might be nearly there, but it would take a paradigm shift in public awareness before it’s implemented and accepted fully in the aviation industry.

Last edited by pug; 29th Sep 2021 at 16:42.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 19:48
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Single pilot pax aircraft will not come in overnight. Any new A370 aircraft will be single pilot capable, but for the first couple of years, will be licenced for two pilot use only. One of the pilots will likely have a very tedious time during a flight. Freighters will probably automate first... then routes flying pax solely over land between highly automated airports in good weather... and gradually the scope will increase. If unforeseen problems arise, they will be solved
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 19:56
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I think we can all agree, but we’re talking decades of trial and error before it’ll entertain the regulators and ultimately benefit the bean counters. So in relation to this thread, and whether it’s worth undertaking flight training at significant personal expense, I think there are far more imminent threats to the industry which may deter a potential trainee than single pilot or fully autonomous flight decks.

Last edited by pug; 29th Sep 2021 at 20:35.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 21:59
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Disclaimer - I've never flown a large scale passenger aircraft but have significant experience in light twins - passenger/cargo/aerial survey.

Never had the luxury of a second pilot
Never had the luxury of a ground engineer to sign the aircraft off each day/flight
Never had the luxury of someone with whom to discuss weather/technical diversions
Never had the luxury of ground crew support
Never had the luxury of a call button for coffee

You know what?
Never had a problem flying single pilot. Automation is significantly less in an old GA twin - forget autothrottles, often the autopilot doesn't work!

I've done multiple day after day 6 hour stints doing lidar aerial survey (where you can't exceed 1 degree angle of bank and more than 6" of lateral deviation - it's pretty demanding manual flying) then ended by flying half an hour to the alternate and shooting an ILS to minima (on raw data and without an autopilot).

It's not hard - personally I think it's fun. I'm not special, I'm not bragging, there are a lot of pilots who do exactly that everyday. There are even the girls and boys of the RFDS that fly single pilot to unlit strips in the middle of the GAFA in the middle of the night - now THAT's special

Are we seriously suggesting in a highly automated modern aircraft that is designed for single pilot ops, just because there are more than 9 pax, you need a second pilot? I can see it for long trips (perhaps peeing into a bottle on the flight deck will never catch on in the airlines)

Single pilot/UAV is coming, just as soon as the SLF accept it.
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 22:11
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Compare the accident rate of single pilot multi engine aircraft operators and that of airlines and you will have your answer

Pilots are more than capable of flying any modern jet single pilot. But to do it to required safety standards necessitates 2 for a multitude of reasons. Such as:
Redundancy
Gaining experience before being put in command
Stopping guys doing stupid stuff
Interaction with cabin crew, pax, atc

Etc etc etc

Single pilot cruise is the very maximum I can see happening anytime soon.
Even that I am heavily sceptical
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Old 29th Sep 2021, 22:50
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SpamCanDriver is spot on, lots of public liability.

Bankstown Boy, I want your job!

Last edited by pug; 29th Sep 2021 at 23:08.
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Old 30th Sep 2021, 00:10
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petit plateau

Teslas affinity for running into police cars/fire engines/ambulances is quite something.
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Old 30th Sep 2021, 03:44
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Well CRM training will be easier.
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