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Becoming a pilot After COVID-19

Old 22nd Apr 2020, 11:04
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 1999
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Shame indeed, but it is easy to catastrophise these failures. The airline market has been so good for so long that there are a number of highly leveraged and struggling airlines around that would not have survived in a harsher market. A correction like this, or 9/11, or 2008 is like the lions taking out the Wildebeest from the edges of the herd. Considering Norwegian and VA, for instance, they are both competing to an extent in the same market, and both were struggling in the best market for years. Likely at least one will go to the wall but the survivor will pick up the spare business when life returns to normal, hire extra crews etc. The bigger question is what 'normal' will be like in the extended period post-lockdown when it is v likely there will still be travel restrictions in place for how long? 9 months? a year?. Logan and Flybe are different cases, the government could take the position that supporting them is a duty to maintain regional connectivity in a post-lockdown market that may not naturally give them a working business case. It's a 'wait and see'. IMHO the MPL shiny school model is seriously fractured, but people forget over time...
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 16:41
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rudestuff View Post
Is there ever a good time to start training? Probably when others aren't. Sure, you could wait until the industry has recovered but then you'll be in the same position as everyone else. Or you could go for it now and spend a fortune keeping current only to be passed over because you qualified too long ago.
If someone has the money and the dream, then my advice would be to go for it 80%. By that I mean get a PPL, do some hour building, take the ATPL exams, get an IRR, CBIR and CPL - but do it all single engine.

​​​​Then stop.

You've just spent £30k to get within a month of the finish line, with all hoops jumped through. No need to worry about ATPLs expiring (for at least 7 years!) Nothing to keep current - just let everything lapse until you're ready for the last step - because you've only got 10 hours of MEP training and an MCC/JOC course left to do. When the time is right, you're a fATPL with a one month lead time. And when you write your CV the important bits (The MEIR and MCC/JOC) will be brand new.
Great advice, thanks
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 19:44
  #63 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
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Originally Posted by UAV689 View Post

virgin oz now in administration
virgin Atlantic on shaky ground
Logan needs government support
cityjet Ireland administrators called in
In Germany:
Today sadly bankrupt Luftfahrtgesellschaft Walter. About 120 Dash8 Q400 Pilots. Mother company WDL is also on shaky ground as Eurowings terminated Wetlease contract with LGW with the result LGW going bankrupt.

Another one which might fall soon is Condor as LOT was to take over Condor, but as LOT is having hard time as well the merger with Condor is cancelled.

Long message short, do NOT start any training. If you have finished already and thinking of doing TR, DONT do it. Dont waste any money on Aviation. Aviation is completely dead. Study for smt useful and maybe later do modular training without having any debt after the training.
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 23:16
  #64 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
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Originally Posted by Alex Whittingham View Post
Shame indeed, but it is easy to catastrophise these failures. The airline market has been so good for so long that there are a number of highly leveraged and struggling airlines around that would not have survived in a harsher market. A correction like this, or 9/11, or 2008 is like the lions taking out the Wildebeest from the edges of the herd. Considering Norwegian and VA, for instance, they are both competing to an extent in the same market, and both were struggling in the best market for years. Likely at least one will go to the wall but the survivor will pick up the spare business when life returns to normal, hire extra crews etc. The bigger question is what 'normal' will be like in the extended period post-lockdown when it is v likely there will still be travel restrictions in place for how long? 9 months? a year?. Logan and Flybe are different cases, the government could take the position that supporting them is a duty to maintain regional connectivity in a post-lockdown market that may not naturally give them a working business case. It's a 'wait and see'. IMHO the MPL shiny school model is seriously fractured, but people forget over time...
This is a millions miles from 08 or 9/11. Both those times airlines still flew! Airlines here are not flying for months! When they do fly again, they are in effect having 3 winters in a row of buisness at best. At worst, 3 winters worth of traffic coupled with awful recession.

nas and vs are only competitors for about 30 of nas fleet. They will dump 120 airframes worth of 737 drivers on the market if it goes bust in its entirety. Probably 1200+ pilots. Where are they going to go? If they all go to ryr, that is 2 years of zero recruitment required at ryr for cadets.

We are going into a huge whammy of changes in customer behaviour far worse than 9/11 or 08 ever was.

Buisness are shrinking in terms of staff size and turnover, buisness traffic will take years to recover.
Companies have been forced to embrace remote working, they will now know its possible and works perfectly well, and less travel is needed in the future.
Many customers will be unwilling to travel, they do not want to queue at supermarkets,they will not want to sit in a tube, thats if they can afford it in the first place with the fact potentially 2m will lose their jobs according to the OBR.

Then we could also end up with this crazy idea of removing seats on aircraft for social distancing, driving up ticket fares, putting off more from flying.

You are absolutely correct in saying it is easy to turn this into a catastrophe. I think catastrophe is not a strong enough word for what is about to happen.

I cannot see the legacies needing to run a cadet course now for 10 years. Ezy are deferring orders, wizz laying off, ryr boeing fleet has not grown for 2 years now, lufty predicting years to recover with a permanent fleet reduction. The list is endless.

Stay away from training unless you have won the lottery!
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 23:32
  #65 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Up North
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Alex W is a top-drawer trainer. Credit and respect.

As regards airline jobs, just forget them. The big number of experienced and type-rated pilots on the market means there are no jobs for new folk for many years. Nobody will want you, however poor the pay. There will be so many who are desperate for jobs, all of whom have plenty of experience.
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 07:12
  #66 (permalink)  

de minimus non curat lex
 
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd View Post
Alex W is a top-drawer trainer. Credit and respect.

As regards airline jobs, just forget them. The big number of experienced and type-rated pilots on the market means there are no jobs for new folk for many years. Nobody will want you, however poor the pay. There will be so many who are desperate for jobs, all of whom have plenty of experience.
When ‘eventually’ the market improves, opportunities on turbo props may well be the first jobs openings for novice *junior birdmen*.

Post 9/11, it took 18 months for the first Loganair Saab 340 FO to move to the big silver birds. And of course with over 1000+ hours on Saab, her transition to jet operations was straightforward, with increased airmanship & situational awareness. Loganair is one of the best airlines, if not the best, for a novice to start their apprenticeship.

The availability of mass vaccinations will be a critical catalyst in returning towards normality.
Prof Sarah Gilbert’s Oxford vaccine trials start today.

To paraphrase (modified) Captain Oates:

“ I am going out, and I might be sometime”

THE PHRASE “Junior Birdmen” is a generic phrase not identifying any gender, or non binary orientation.

Last edited by parkfell; 23rd Apr 2020 at 07:30. Reason: syntax
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 08:29
  #67 (permalink)  
Educated Hillbilly
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: From the Hills
Posts: 829
18 months seems quite quick for that era. I would say most instructors and turboprop pilots were stuck for nearly the best part of 5 years before moving on (if at all) in that post 9/11 era between 2000 to 2014 (slight recruitment peak around 2007).

However what everyone is overlooking is the return of the pay to fly schemes, Eagle-jet adverts which have disappeared during the recruitment boom have now reappeared with a resurgence on latestpilotjobs. While I disagree with pay to fly, the fact remains the low hour qualifiers which can afford to do it probably will. In the last down turn many low costs ran pay to fly schemes (Easyjet via Johnathan Kurds company, Wizzair via Storm Aviation), which invariably halted the progress of experienced turbo-prop pilots.

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Old 24th Apr 2020, 05:13
  #68 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
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Do not base your decisions on the ramblings of doom and gloom merchants on PPRuNe. The 5 to 10 year prediction is just someone's opinion and a number plucked out of thin air. I qualified in 2008 during what was at the time considered by many to be an apocalyptic event. Fast forward to 2020 and I have several thousand command hours on boeing and airbus.

That being said, this is certainly far worse than 2008, however no one really knows what the recovery will look like. I certainly wouldn't start pilot training now until the future becomes more clear. Get a job outside of aviation and re evaluate in 12 months time.

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Old 28th Apr 2020, 16:52
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Location: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
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Ba to shed 12,000, with rumours this morning of 800 pilots.

ryr delayed the max til 2021

there will be no jobs for years
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 20:28
  #70 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.

Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?

Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.

I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…

My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.

EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14520454.html

Last edited by squidie; 28th Apr 2020 at 21:27.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 22:02
  #71 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Originally Posted by squidie View Post
Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.

Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?

Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.

I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…

My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.

EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14520454.html
I was around during the Pilot glut of the early 90's caused by a number of factors; house price crash, UK dropping out of the ERM, bankruptcy of Dan Air and Air Europe... That glut lasted about 6 years from 1990 to 1996.
Then I was also around for the aftermath of 9/11. That was a relatively short lived downturn. It was early days for the low costs and they were growing fast. I think full recovery occured by 2003.
Then I was made redundant towards the end of the financial crisis, June 2009. There was a glut of Pilots then. My colleagues started to get jobs by the end of 2010. Full recovery by 2011. However a lot of the recovery was to do with an extremely rapidly expanding China at that time.
My forecast for the current downturn depends largely on whether it's scaled up testing or a vaccine which is required to turn the tide. Assuming that it's a vaccine:
- We'll get domestic and some regional flights by Summer 2020 when lockdown finishes
- They say a Vaccine in 18 months. That would mean initiation of worldwide flights by Autumn 2021
- Peak summer 2022. I would expect worldwide flights to be back at 50% 2019 levels
- Then due to limitations on training within the industry, expansion would occur at about 20% per year.
That would have us back to 2019 levels in 2025. This could be a little quicker, maybe 2024, if testing works well.

Let me just say though, this current situation is entirely unprecedented. No look at history will decipher the outcome.

Last edited by polax52; 28th Apr 2020 at 23:00.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 22:36
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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Obviously some of your factors take into account that the economic way of life resumes to the same activities before, I.e normal business travel and social travel. That is to be the main contributing factor over time.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 22:54
  #73 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
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In my opinion that will happen. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, post vaccine, you'll have an abundance of cheap aircraft, cheap crew, and cheap fuel (entrepreneurs dream). People, especially young people have not stopped wanting to travel. Cargo still needs to be moved. Business still needs to be done. This is just a reset of the industry, maybe one that needed to happen. It will take time though, we're talking about 2019 levels in 2025, that could be a little optimistic but thereabouts.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 23:12
  #74 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
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Hi everybody,

Firstly, just introducing myself cause I just registered in this forum. I am a recent PPL holder, 32 years old, and as most of us here, always dreamt of being a professional pilot.

I work in a very different field, and was just about to start ATPL theory (after a well thought and not easy decision), combining my now full time job to what it would have become a part time job, when covid suddenly exploded. By the time being, I have postponed this important step and my question is, am I now left with no future at all for achieving my goal/dream?

Many thanks in advance.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 05:00
  #75 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: London
Posts: 114
The simple and brutal answer is probably yes.

There will be no recruitment in to airlines for the foreseeable future. Huge numbers of experienced pilots will be seeking jobs when eventually recruitment does restart. No one knows exactly how this is going to play out, and while some of the worst predictions being written on PPRuNe are likely too pessimistic, it would be fair to suggest your chances of getting a flying job as a newly qualified pilot with no experience are, in the next 5 years, close to zero.

After that, who knows? But the question you should be asking yourself is are you prepared to sit around for years and years foregoing other career opportunities in the meantime. The sensible answer to that question should be no. But I appreciate how depressing it must be to hear that. We were all once in your shoes, desperately looking for a way in to the industry. Many of us may well be again.

Good Luck.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 05:19
  #76 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
There will be no jobs for ANY pilots, let alone cadets, for the next decade at least. It is beyond belief that people are still even considering training now.

Conservatively, there will shortly be 3-4000 unemployed pilots on the market in the UK alone once the inevitable redundancies kick in. The majority will never get a flying job ever again.
Here's a job, right now: 747-400 Captain - Freight and there's about 24 more on CAE's website - so some organisations ARE looking for pilots, I imagine all of them are box-shifters due to the huge increase in cargo volumes.

You're welcome.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 07:15
  #77 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Right now is a tough time to find a normal job let alone a job within aviation.

My advice for anyone who is somewhere in the training pipeline or waiting to start would be to get a job in a different sector. Perhaps look at further education if you can afford it, but stay very clear of aviation for at least 18 months to 2 years. Then reassess the options. Everything is still too unknown to make any credible decisions. If a career in aviation is what you want then waiting a couple of years will make no discernible difference 20 years down the line.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 08:46
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry but you would have to be insane to be thinking of commercial pilot training now. What is coming is probably the worst downturn in commercial aviation we have ever seen. This will be a perfect storm for the airlines. 9/11 was an unwillingness to travel. 2008 was an economic crash that meant people couldn't afford to. What we will see next will be both on a bigger scale. At the moment we are seeing the effects of restrictions in travel. Next will be the recession and a drying up of money and credit.

Many businesses are being forced to resort to remote working and video conferencing where they would have previously been sending people in person. Once they have these systems in place and see the cost benefits they won't go back to paying for business class seats.
Airlines which have their main assets listed as slots at major airports like LHR see the value of these slashed as traffic decreases and these airlines will become vitually worthless.
Villas and apartments in places like Spain will be flogged off cheap or repossessed. Holiday resorts will go bust due to lack of visitors over this summer and won't survive winter to be back next year. People will be unwilling to book a holiday abroad and those that can afford a holiday will start booking domestic holidays instead by car.
Airports themselves will be going bust left right and centre and we will see the closure of some regionals.

Then we have the training industry. Now more than ever DO NOT PAY FOR ANYTHING UP FRONT!
Banks will tighten lending or stop altogether.No bank in their right mind will lend for flight training.
The parents house that would have been used as security will plummet in value and make lending against it impossible. Those that have done this over the last few years could see a move into negative equity.
Parents stock related pensions will also be heading south.
All recruitment will stop except those airlines that see the chance to run crappy pay to fly schemes to help keep themselves in business. With no credit available only those with ready funds will apply and get rinsed before being spat out the other end.
Any pilots recruited over the last few years will likely be out of work and looking. Competition for the very few jobs there are with be insane and if you have 250 hours with a fresh CPL/IR then you won't even get a reply. All airline tie-ups with the big schools will be gone apart from some cash grab pay to fly schemes aimed more at paying the schools/airlines bills than training pilots.
Instructors will be working for free or min wage to keep their hand in.

I would expect some big name flight schools to go to the wall in very short order. Any cash paid up front will vanish.

If you want to fly then best thing to do would be to get a cheap PPL from a small club only paying as you go and wait for all the cheap shares and aircraft to come up for sale. People will be desperate for you to take it off them as they cannot afford to have it even sitting on the ground let alone fly. Pick one up cheap and enjoy your flying. Just ring the destination airfield before you set off to check they haven't gone bust.

If you want to make money from aviation then take the cash you were going to use for flight training and short any business associated with commercial flying.

This all sounds very pessimistic but that is the way we are headed IMHO. I really do pity the people who are lumbered with large loans from flight training over the last few years.


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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:17
  #79 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
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Age: 40
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I hate to say it, but if you wanted to become a pilot and are now around the age you would start training, I think you might have missed the boat. There will not be any recruiting for many many years. Mckinsey & Co predict airline travel not returning to pre-Covid levels until 2023, if at all. All airlines are looking at significant redundancies. Unlike 9/11 or 2008 there are no other growing airlines around the world for pilots to go to.

This is probably a good thing for you if you haven't started training yet, as you wont waste any money training on a career that just doesn’t have the legs to sustain a full career for your age.

After COVID is passed we’ll have another challenge to tackle, climate change. The failure of the industry to properly address the carbon issue means we are seen as the bad boys, which means less public support and a perhaps a lowering of demand over the next decade. Then for pilots in 20+ year’s time we’ll have to deal with increased autonomy of the role. Cruise relief pilots etc could be a thing of the past.

The job, whilst enjoyable at times is not what you picture it to be whilst you are a wanabee. You have to put up with a load of [email protected] and the
pay and conditions are constantly going downhill. The novelty of flying a plane wears off very quickly and then it becomes more routine. You are not soaring around the sky like a bird,
more just following rules and procedures.

I’ve enjoyed the lifestyle aspects of job up until now. Being in a collapsing industry is no fun though. By all means do some flying for fun, get a PPL. But use this time to skill-up in something else completely, walk away from commercial aviation. For god’s sake do not start paying money to train as a pilot today!

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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:29
  #80 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: UK North
Posts: 40
I concur whole heartedly
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