Right time to train (Merged 2011)

[goldenman]

forecasts Asia will need 229,676 pilots over the next two decades

and how they come to this exact number when they don't know what the future will be?


this is for asia and ME, not for EU citizen.

same thing happens with China, they shout everywhere that they need pilots, then they train chinese cadets pilots from 0 hours to A320 for Schenzen Airline and others, where do you see EU copilots in china with a JAA CPL flying in china?

Immigration will never let you fly there unless you are captain with lot of experience. All these stories about guys working at qatar after 500h jet , is just a rumor, or it' s just for guys having double nationalities.

Do you know why captains go to china or ME? because we have no job in Europe for them.

Definitively they are not interested by us,and in 2 years, it will be the same.
There is no pilot shortage in this world;it's a fact proven since these last 30 years.

You will probably finish like me, jobless, type rating with 500h on type, and nobody want you.

And for the one who don't belive me, where do you see they need pilots with just a cpl...? look at the magazines or on the net, there is absolutely no demand for pilots unless you are a US citizen or captain with lot of experience.

[goldenman]

2025!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[zondaracer]

Billywhu, don't Believe everything the media says, especially when it comes to aviation. I think those numbers are based on Boeing's future predictions from half a year ago, and Boeing are trying to sell airplanes.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ml#post6841531

There was an article in USA Today about the "future pilot shortage" and the people they interviewed were from the flying schools. Don't you think that they also benefit from articles like that?

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-job...-set-soar.html


Also, these predictions were based on the rate of growth around the world, assuming that growth would never slow down. It is assuming that oil prices dont increase, assuming there will never be a large disruption of air travel on the scale of an icelandic volcano or September 11 event. We are already seeing a slow down in the economy.

[KAG]

BugsBearing/boxes:

Oh and as to whichever hell hole you are in that has made you bitter, a lack of ICAO level 6 English might prevent a return to the western world. Spend more time with English then ranting on PPRuNe eh?

I have flown for companies based on 3 different continents, one being north america, and ferried airplanes around the world. I today work for an airline in Asia.
I am able and entitled to do the radio communications in 3 different languages, one of them being the first spoken language in the world: chinese, what about you?

I agree with the 2 posters above, goldenman and zondaracer.


Billywhu: I have posted in the thread you gave us, I am flying in Asia, you will have my viewpoint if you read the first page of the thread.

[Citationcj2]

Times are very hard indeed. plenty of fully qualifed pilots out there now working in supermarkets unable to got a job in the industry

[pudoc]

Thanks guys. Your explanations make sense. I didn't think the articles were right after reading info on here but I couldn't put a reason on it.

Glad I'm not eager to fly a jet, but even so looks like I'm going to pause my training for a while.

[KAG]

No problems.

We regularly hire foreigner (expat) captains though. But more than 80% fail either the sim check, either the medical.
If you are captain, your chance are increasing dramatically, for a first officer to be hired in some part of Asia, it's really more difficult (at least mainland, Hongkong, Macau that's an other story) and you really need to make the difference.

[Sassy91]

Times are very hard indeed. plenty of fully qualifed pilots out there now working in supermarkets unable to got a job in the industry

I don't think people with freshly minted CPL's should be calling themselves fully qualified pilots until they get a job.

[DauphinDude]

Goldenman: You are wrong. Expats ARE flying all over the globe, and so will I within the next 2 months. I am from a rather small European country, but I know A LOT of people whom have sought work outside Europe, and found it! I myself are a low timer and I got a gig in China as a copilot on a twin turbine AC, typerating payed and a very reasonable paycheck.

It is all about networking.

[Valmont]

Speaking for myself (FAA Commercial low timer), i started training in 2010 and i'm done right now. I can say that i wouldn't have done it unless i had a great opportunity. To backup KAG's thoughts, most of my friends that i met during my training are out of job (both FAA & JAA CPL's) since they're done, only one of them got a job and he's almost in the same case as I am. If you got a green card or are an american citizen, that's something else..

[Luke SkyToddler]

1) It is highly highly highly unlikely that there will ever be a "shortage" of 200 hour pilots in the western world. If such a situation did arise, it would be extremely short term. There may indeed be a shortage of F/Os in places like China but they'll still train their own nationals, hire high time type rated F/Os, or even hire expat captains to sit in the RHS, before they'll take inexperienced guys from outside.

2) It is absolutely impossible for a wannabe or even an airline itself, to look 18 months / two or more years into the future and predict what's going to happen with pilot hiring.

3) Therefore, there is no "best time" to train. You're better to just pile in and get the license but for Gods sake set aside some money to keep yourself current after training complete, possibly even for several years. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

[KAG]

Good point Luke.

3) Therefore, there is no "best time" to train.

"Best time" to train could not exist like you affirm, this is highly possible, however worst time to train might be right now...

[KAG]

Dauphin Dude: smart move. I have been flying in china for many years, it has its interesting parts...
Have you passed the medical yet?
Anyway, you go were the job and good conditions are, good decision.

However let's not fool the thousands of wannabes here, the middle east and Asia won't hire you all, you can be sure about that.

Were I work most of the captain fail the hiring process, and we accept no F/O... In addition for the ones up to speed: the economy in India and China are slowing down right now... Hope it doesn't mean hard time ahead in Asia, but who knows...

Valmont: my thread is precisely for guys like you and your flight school mate, and not for the ones finding a way that is more an exception than the general rule. I am sorry to hear about your situation, and I hope you have no loan. Stay positive, try to get a bush job in some country, or maybe get an instructor rating to teach in an economic-booming country... But I realise that's not easy and most of the new CPL holders won't have any job.

What I can see right now it that the situation is getting worse, escpecially in the west, so tomorrow might be even more difficult, let's hope I am wrong.

[Da-20 monkey]

Does anyone have a working crystal ball for sale? I need one!

I had to cancel my integrated course because I could not get a loan. Now I am without debt, first pass on ATPL subjects, 30 or so flight hours and no idea what's a good thing to do now

Trying to become a trainee ATC'er is one idea, but not many pass the selection for this I think

Ah well, we'll see what happens..

[bluearrow]

I would say now is because this is when some flight schools are in greatest need of your business. I just negotiated a fantastic training deal

Do your own research and make the call

[G CEXO]

I remember back in 2005 when I was looking into starting my training and someone said to me:

" G CEXO, yes it's true, planning is everything and luck does play a big part in being successful. However, if you don't have the license then you can't get the job "


Sometimes in life, you eventually have to bite the bullet.

[KAG]

Blue arrow:

I just negotiated a fantastic training deal

What do you call a fantastic deal exactly? How much for your CPL?

Anyway, that's what I was saying in my first post in this thread, last sentence: Right now we are, I believe, just before a recession, or at least big economic problems.
Wait to be in the middle of it to start. In addition your training will be cheaper and the instructor more available (I am not saying this is booming right now...).

Hard times are ahead it seems, the best deals are ahead too. Right now is still uncertainty for everybody.


G CEXO:

" G CEXO, yes it's true, planning is everything and luck does play a big part in being successful. However, if you don't have the license then you can't get the job "

Where I come from, this is the same way the national lottery advertize: it you don't buy your ticket, you cannot win.

In a way this is true. True but sad that we reached that point and way of thinking concerning a career.

[goldenman]

it you don't buy your ticket, you cannot win.

yes, except a lottery ticket costs 2-3 euro and you can make 25 millions euro,
in aviation you pay 150'000 euro and you make no money at the end.

Pilots are just a bunch of desperate dreamers, they will do anything just to get a few hours on a jet, sacrifice their life, family,and all their saving ...so many bankrupt pilots already, and airlines receiving thousand of CV they don't want.
They think by paying hundred of thousand of euro, airlines will be interested by them, they don't, they are just interested to buy more fuel with your money.



my God, what they teach you at school?just spend money? I mean some of you have worked in their life?