Is There A Recession In The Flight Training Industry?
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
Keeping your Fzn ATPL CPL IR/Multi alive for 3 years would be costing you close to £10k. You'd be rusty as hell and find a simride very hard due to lack of currency. A boom is much more than 3 years away. Even if it weren't there are now 3 years worth of identically qualified pilots all applying for the same job and some of them are fresh out of training and not rusty.
There is a lag in these things. If schools aren't going bust by this time next year I'll happily put salt and pepper on this hat and eat it.
WWW
There is a lag in these things. If schools aren't going bust by this time next year I'll happily put salt and pepper on this hat and eat it.
WWW
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
From: Nether Regions
People who just started training cant just stop and collect a full refund.
People who are about to graduate cant just stop either.
This ensures at least a years worth of cadets from every FTO coming onto the job seeking market in an unforgiving climate.
If there ever was a time to delay your training start, this would be it right now. Yet the FTO's are still chock a block with courses booked up for months, with many eager wannabes waiting to start asap and take the place of someone who drops out.
In a years time, we'll have a better understanding of how the economy will fare, and what measures governments are willing to do and in what timescale.
One thing is for sure; the FTO's certaintly wont go bust in the next year or two. Most dont appreciate loaned money, and how long it takes to earn in the real world. It still feels like free money, so for now, wannabes will continue to spend it freely to follow their dreams.
Ofc, the potential is there for things to get much worse. We are seeing HSBC turning away some FTO's (for now), but most can still secure money through other means. Until those avenues dry up aswell, the insatiable masses will still want their flying!
tldr: The economy will have to get much worse before it starts affecting next 'generation' of applicants. Cant say for sure if this will happen.
People who are about to graduate cant just stop either.
This ensures at least a years worth of cadets from every FTO coming onto the job seeking market in an unforgiving climate.
If there ever was a time to delay your training start, this would be it right now. Yet the FTO's are still chock a block with courses booked up for months, with many eager wannabes waiting to start asap and take the place of someone who drops out.
In a years time, we'll have a better understanding of how the economy will fare, and what measures governments are willing to do and in what timescale.
One thing is for sure; the FTO's certaintly wont go bust in the next year or two. Most dont appreciate loaned money, and how long it takes to earn in the real world. It still feels like free money, so for now, wannabes will continue to spend it freely to follow their dreams.
Ofc, the potential is there for things to get much worse. We are seeing HSBC turning away some FTO's (for now), but most can still secure money through other means. Until those avenues dry up aswell, the insatiable masses will still want their flying!
tldr: The economy will have to get much worse before it starts affecting next 'generation' of applicants. Cant say for sure if this will happen.
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
For 18 months now I have believed that a prolonged and deep recession at least as bad as 1990 - 1992 would occur in 2008 - 2010. This morning The Times Economics Editor writes this:
Deep and lengthy recession takes shape as UK output figures shrink - Times Online
If you have one iota of sense you will look back at history to provide a guide to the future. You will see 2 major UK airlines going bust in the form of Dan Air and Air Europe. You will note that for Wannabes the employment prospects were virtually nil for over 4 years. Reasonable hiring rates returned in 1995 and a boom didn't happen until 1998.
Much of the recent growth in the UK airline industry has been financed by people spending money their house has earned or by unsecured credit. This source of spending has not only stopped growing but is rapidly shrinking.
Ignore the complacent media and the spinning politicians. This is going to be very bad.
WWW
November 6, 2008
Deep and lengthy recession takes shape as UK output figures shrink
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
The threat of a deep and prolonged recession mounted yesterday as bleak figures showed services industries shrinking at a record rate and manufacturing suffering its longest stretch of falling output since 1980...
Deep and lengthy recession takes shape as UK output figures shrink
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
The threat of a deep and prolonged recession mounted yesterday as bleak figures showed services industries shrinking at a record rate and manufacturing suffering its longest stretch of falling output since 1980...
If you have one iota of sense you will look back at history to provide a guide to the future. You will see 2 major UK airlines going bust in the form of Dan Air and Air Europe. You will note that for Wannabes the employment prospects were virtually nil for over 4 years. Reasonable hiring rates returned in 1995 and a boom didn't happen until 1998.
Much of the recent growth in the UK airline industry has been financed by people spending money their house has earned or by unsecured credit. This source of spending has not only stopped growing but is rapidly shrinking.
Ignore the complacent media and the spinning politicians. This is going to be very bad.
WWW
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 179
Likes: 0
From: Stockholm
Thanks WWW.
I suspected something like you mentioned.
I just wanted to hear it from someone who is experienced and knows more than me.
Paying to keep it current and also paying the loan can be very difficult for many.
Eikido
I suspected something like you mentioned.
I just wanted to hear it from someone who is experienced and knows more than me.
Paying to keep it current and also paying the loan can be very difficult for many.
Eikido
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 272
Likes: 88
From: UK
Paying to keep it current and also paying the loan can be very difficult for many.
A large number of students at my FTO a few years ago didnt even know what an airline pilot actually does, or career prospects or even the avergae starting FO salary... This was even after spending over 60K
Sadly the majority dream about graduating and sitting in a shiny jet counting pots of dosh.
)
Joined: Feb 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 17,503
Likes: 1,846
From: England
Though to be fair its so long since I filled out a flightplan the colour would drain from me as well. Despite flying to Paris weekly.
House prices and car sales figures are flashing 19ft high bright red RECESSION warnings today. FTO's will follow, 100% guaranteed.
WWW
House prices and car sales figures are flashing 19ft high bright red RECESSION warnings today. FTO's will follow, 100% guaranteed.
WWW
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 254
Likes: 0
From: UK
FTO's will stay alive as long as people are willing to pay up for courses!
A hell of a lot of people are burying thier heads in the sand over this. I think it must be human nature not to believe in something bad espcially when it directly affects you!
Heard on the radio this morning that the mortgage lenders are on about keeping the prices up, even though the interest rates are now in the descent!! Crack on boys and girls! Keep it up! As that will only help house prices fall even more!! (muppets!!)
A hell of a lot of people are burying thier heads in the sand over this. I think it must be human nature not to believe in something bad espcially when it directly affects you!
Heard on the radio this morning that the mortgage lenders are on about keeping the prices up, even though the interest rates are now in the descent!! Crack on boys and girls! Keep it up! As that will only help house prices fall even more!! (muppets!!)
