Airline career not the way to go if you aim for a long-term job?

[eikido]

What do you fellow wannabes and pilots think about the future and airlines jobs?

I have this feeling aiming for an airline career is not the way to go if you aim for a long-term job.

The oil will soon be a rare substance which will make it cost several hundreds $ per barrel (this is a fact) and we have no alternatives to oil yet for the airline industry. Compare vehicles which has got alternatives such as the electric car which will more likely take a leap over the gas car (and even if we have alternatives, this will take many many years to replace).

Also the CO2 taxes all the airlines has to pay 2012 (Europe).

I'm not talking about 1-5 years. I'm talking 20-30 years>.

This has probably been discussed before, however it is getting more obvious today than before.

Take me for example. I will never ever buy a new gas car. I didn't think this way 1 year ago.

Eikido

[daria-ox]

If that's your dream, you'll go for it.

[Trippple]

There will always be a need for quick transportation, and until something faster comes along planes will adapt to fulfill this requirement. When the oil does run out, I'm sure some kind of genius will find a way to supplement it

[eikido]

Yea mate, i'm still going to do it. And i'm not expecting to get a job. Getting a job is a bonus and a goal.
My dream is to take the license and fly. And i will.


Eikido

[DarkSoldier]

The boffins are already at work attempting to find alternative sources to jet fuel. I have already come across a number of serious prototypes. Sure, they look a bit different than what we know as a 'traditional' jet but they still fly...I hope

I wouldn't worry about it - by the time oil starts to dry up, which is not going to be any time soon, we will have the next generation of flying machines. This industry is far far too big just to give up on.....

.....but then I once heard that the future of fast long distance transport lies in very high speed underground train systems throughout the globe

[eikido]

I saw a british documentary from 2008 about oil.

The realists estimated the oil reserves to last around 30 years.

The oil producers estimated the oil reserves to last around 100-150 years.
The oil producers will ofcours lie (because of many many reasons) so imagine the real number your self.

So i hope there will be alternatives soon.
Even if there are many alternatives and prototypes, there won't be enough fuel to provide so many flights.

Eikido

[Re-Heat]

I'm not talking about 1-5 years. I'm talking 20-30 years>.

Doom and gloom - the reality is that is will indeed become more expensive, but as other uses of oil decline (cars moving electric perhaps), it will free up capacity for those sources that make more efficient use of it.

CO2 emissions may indeed be traded in the future: even more efficient aircraft will also be built.

Oil decline is not a one-way road to an agrarian economy - it is simply evolution - no different from moving away from heating your home with a coal fire, to gas / electric.

[wilky]

Hi Folks,

I’m sitting on an Oil Platform in the North Sea as I type this, believe me there is more than 30 years of oil left out here alone, never mind the rest of the world and the reserves that have not been tapped yet. The platform I’m on now has been here since 1976, it has just been given an expired field life of 2028, new drilling technologies, surveying etc will ensure oil will be produced for a hell of a long time. It’s all scaremongering about we have very few years left of oil supply, yes it is a non renewable source, but when it runs out we will be running on some sort of hyper biological cow pat.

[Re-Heat]

The oil producers will ofcours lie (because of many many reasons) so imagine the real number your self.

No - they simply do not have the technology to extract oil for 150 year, but one day, the technology to extract the 70% of oil that is left in the ground will indeed be developed, and old wells will continue in use.

[JB007]

It's still an awesome job...but 'timing' is becoming the key word...

The question will be what choices you have in, say 5 years, when the economy is back and people are happy to spend money on fATPL's again...

Employers are reducing, making competion huge, even for experienced folk.

[v6g]

I'm inclined to agree with the original poster because of a number of reasons:

1) The era of cheap money has ended. This affected both people's ability to travel and airlines ability to grow.

2) Erosion of T's & C's due to it being perceived as a glamour profession. It's an unconquerable fact that when a lot of people are willing and able to do a job, that job generally pays poorly. There's no reason to expect this trend to end.

3) Technology will soon replace the need for pilots, just as they did for radio operators, navigators & flight engineers. Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL. I expect that within 10 years, the next generation of aircraft will still have two seats in the cockpit but for certification one of them will be empty. The First Officer will instead be a "Flight Manager" sitting in an office monitoring 100's of flights.

4) The era of cheap oil is ending. OK, you say, but oil has fallen back to $60 from its high of $140. Yes but....
4.1) The suggestion that "there's plenty of oil left in the North Sea - at least for 30 years" doesn't make sense. North Sea production has been in continuous decline for 10 years already. The 30 years figure assumes that oil will continue to be produced at a constant rate until the very last drop is extracted, and then fall instantly to zero. That is gibberish.

4.2) Global oil production has been mostly flat for the last 7 years (despite record prices). The only region of the world to record any significant gains is Russia, who have now declared that they too have peaked.

4.3) The recent decline in the oil price is due to an expected mother-of-all recessions, once things get going again, prices will soon pick back up. Look what happened on the 23rd September, the biggest one-day gain in the oil price ever, simply because of a short-lived belief that the worlds economic woes were going to be fixed.

4.4) The only super mega-oil-field the world has (Ghawar in Saudi Arabia - a gusher beyond all extremes) is showing signs of old age. The water-cut is rising steadily (that's the percentage of water that comes out with the oil). Reports show that it's nearing the 30% point - that's a problem. The Saudi's say "Just trust us - there's plenty" and deny the problem - but over the last decade they've made enormous investments in secondary & tertiary recovery technology (basically ways to extract the water); a strong indication that they know they've got problems coming. New technology inevitably just stems the decline, nowhere in the world has it led to sustained production increases.

4.5) Despite the recent falls in price, the oil market remains in contango - that is the market expects the future price of oil to be higher than it is today. This trend has remained constant throughout all the recent turmoil.

4.6) The lack of insight and understanding of the problem from the worlds leaders doesn't inspire confidence. At the peak of the oil crisis in the summer, Gordon Brown announced that it was "outrageous that OPEC controls 60% of the worlds oil reserves", well it's simple geology Mr Brown. George Bush seems convinced the answer lies in drilling offshore. Well, there's always a chance that he might find a replacement for the Saudi's Ghawar field, but it's slim.

If anybody can convincingly disprove these points, I look forward to hearing them. Aviation is a fun hobby, and I might even try it full-time for a few years, instructing or bush flying, but I simply can't see it being a viable life-long career for someone currently in their 20's/early 30's.

[Rj111]

Ahh stop with the doom and gloom. Sceince will find a way to overcome the future challenges, aviation is too important to the world's economy.

[fadedfootpaths]

Hello

I am NOT very experienced to debate on this topic but, there are 10000 planes flying in the skies, with almost a few thousand airliners on order and Some planes like the 787, A350, B747-8 in the development stages and all of those planes have a cockpit designed for two pilots. So I am sure there will be a basic requirement for pilots to fly these planes and that all these 10K+ Odd planes wont be scarpped overnight. I do agree Science will bring up new ways of transportation and that the oil rigs are going to dry up soon, but that would be in 30-40 years time and by that time I am sure the youngest group of ppruners here are going to be about 50- 60 years old(retirement time) and It really doesnt matter if people travel using planes or some other alternate mode of transportation. So, Please stop blasting each other and just enjoy whatever flying job you have at the moment.

"Flying truly is one of the most beautiful things you can ever do in life"

I wish all you guys flying out there Happy Landings and Safe Flights

Arun(FFP)

[wilky]

Nobody mentioned that oil production would increase. Of course Oil is decline, however what you are failing to take into consideration that the reserves that have been drilled and have been producing have a significant amount of oil left. Alot of the North sea fields have been in decline because we did't have the technology or capabilties to extract the remaining oil due to the formations/depth underground. With direction drilling and new deepwater semi submersible drilling rigs these resources are now becoming accessible.
Researchers have received a grant of some 6,000,000 pounds to fund their work into advancing the generation of future oil activity in the Faroe-Shetland basin near Scotland.
Innovative technology will be employed over the two-year project that marks the first stage in what will be a significant new frontier of oil exploration in the United Kingdom. These fileds have been discovered under a layer of Lava that has been impossible to drill through and tap into until now.

But all this must be gibberish, what do I know, I only work in the oil industry.

[fadedfootpaths]

but then I once heard that the future of fast long distance transport lies in very high speed underground train systems throughout the globe


If something like that comes up, I will make flying a hobby and then become a train driver

[eikido]

There is a difference between pessimistic and realistic.

And i wanted to say that v6g completed a lot that i wanted to write but didn't.

Especially this:

4.6) The lack of insight and understanding of the problem from the worlds leaders doesn't inspire confidence. At the peak of the oil crisis in the summer, Gordon Brown announced that it was "outrageous that OPEC controls 60% of the worlds oil reserves", well it's simple geology Mr Brown. George Bush seems convinced the answer lies in drilling offshore. Well, there's always a chance that he might find a replacement for the Saudi's Ghawar field, but it's slim.

You people just wait and see about this. I think many people are too comfortable today and don't realize things can change drastically because the leaders don't (won't) understand many issues.

Eikido

[Lost man standing]

Any time anyone says "this is a fact" it is a strong hint that the piece of information they refer to is complete nonsense.

This is a case in point. People have been talking about us only having 30 years of oil left for more than 30 years now, and known economic reserves are higher than ever. This is not only not a fact, but the actual fact is not known. There are far too many unknown factors in determining the future supply of oil - size of known but unexplored fields, future population, future technology both in oil extraction and efficient energy. In fact for the last 30 years unlimited power generation from fusion has been just 20 years away, so it seems we'll have ten years to build fusion power stations before the oil runs out, then this energy can be used to make artificial fuels.

[wilky]

Lost Man Standing

Bang on!!

[Slipstream86]

3) Technology will soon replace the need for pilots, just as they did for radio operators, navigators & flight engineers. Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL. I expect that within 10 years, the next generation of aircraft will still have two seats in the cockpit but for certification one of them will be empty. The First Officer will instead be a "Flight Manager" sitting in an office monitoring 100's of flights.

Airbus have stated publicly that "their aircraft will always have two flight crew"

[Superpilot]

The oil will soon be a rare substance which will make it cost several hundreds $ per barrel (this is a fact)

How can something be "a fact" if it hasn't happened yet?

If you want a sneak peak of what the future might hold for us all in terms of transportation and technology. Just look at the advances of human society between 1800-1900, then 1900-1950, then 1950-2000. Which period saw the biggest difference? What does that tell you in general about human society? It tells you we get bigger, better, sleaker, cleaner and quicker all the time and there can be no limit to our advancement (scientists have failed to find an absolute brain capacity limit to this date). If there was, we'd all be chuffed at being chimps (as I hear you can teach them to fly too)