Pilot Shortage turns to Pilot Surplus...
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Joined: Feb 2008
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From: S.A.E
Pilot Shortage turns to Pilot Surplus...
Hey guys, anyone seen this article- Pilot shortage moves to pilot surplus
Waffles on a bit towards the end regarding MPL's but worth a read I think.
In my opinion, it's clear to me that now is a bad time to start training....this sucks because now I have to move to London and join the rat race- great lol.
So...any idea what I should do as a graduate with a 2.1 in business stuff and IT
...oh by the way, I hate IT and no clue as to what business function I'd like to work in. 
Don't I just wish I had an office in the sky! Anywho, back on topic....what do you lot make of the article!? I'm hoping FTO's offering Integrated courses will offer discounted course
Waffles on a bit towards the end regarding MPL's but worth a read I think.
In my opinion, it's clear to me that now is a bad time to start training....this sucks because now I have to move to London and join the rat race- great lol.
So...any idea what I should do as a graduate with a 2.1 in business stuff and IT
...oh by the way, I hate IT and no clue as to what business function I'd like to work in. Don't I just wish I had an office in the sky! Anywho, back on topic....what do you lot make of the article!? I'm hoping FTO's offering Integrated courses will offer discounted course
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From: between a rock and a hard place
How long will this pilot surplus last for though ? It seemed to me that the pilot shortage didn't last that long and before then there was a similar surplus. I recall in the news experts are saying we are probably half way through the economic down turn (anyone know exactly when it was supposed to have started?) with worse times to come, now could be the time to start making plans to start trainning in preperation for when things pick up (get hold of ground school material and get to grips with it). It's all a big gamble though.
On the other hand PAT are fully booked for the forseeable future, my guess a lot of them are people who are planning ahead for more lucrative times (either that or they just haven't thought things through
).
On the other hand PAT are fully booked for the forseeable future, my guess a lot of them are people who are planning ahead for more lucrative times (either that or they just haven't thought things through
).
Joined: Apr 2008
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From: tahiti
Very interesting article, very realistic.
Just as expected.
I don't agree with these sentences.
It is clearly a North American problem resulting in some slowdown worldwide... in the scheduled airline operations of course.
I don't agree with the Emirates situation as it is going to benefit and see figures go up in the event of a decline in Europe. Simply because they will be offering the cheapest longhaul flights, via Dubai thanks to their A388's and oil they buy at 30$/barrel.
Also, there's plenty of other jobs available in the world and unfortunately that is not illustrated in the article. Alot of general aviation jobs available out there.
Otherwise I agree that the big picture is that mainline airlines flying scheduled flights have a slight surplus.
The MPL is an issue.
It is time that FAA and EASA come forward with one license for the whole western world and progressively as other States reach their standards, include these States into their alliance.
A group of eight major European flight training and type rating training organisations have jointly signed a letter to the European Aviation Safety Agency protesting about its current notice of proposed amendment to the existing JAR flightcrew licensing (JAR FCL), which would radically change many of the ground rules defining how a training organisation must conduct its business to be approved to train pilots for an EASA licence.
Moxham adds: "I have also to question whether this should be considered a European or a North American problem, or whether it is a worldwide situation. I do not believe any country is immune since all rely on international travellers. Emirates may be booming, but if things get tight in Europe then their load figures will inevitably decline - the same applies elsewhere.
It is clearly a North American problem resulting in some slowdown worldwide... in the scheduled airline operations of course.
I don't agree with the Emirates situation as it is going to benefit and see figures go up in the event of a decline in Europe. Simply because they will be offering the cheapest longhaul flights, via Dubai thanks to their A388's and oil they buy at 30$/barrel.
Also, there's plenty of other jobs available in the world and unfortunately that is not illustrated in the article. Alot of general aviation jobs available out there.
Otherwise I agree that the big picture is that mainline airlines flying scheduled flights have a slight surplus.
The MPL is an issue.
It is time that FAA and EASA come forward with one license for the whole western world and progressively as other States reach their standards, include these States into their alliance.
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From: UK
ChrisLKKB, I fear that the issue regarding fully booked courses at PAT and other FTOs is for a student population that had already started their training during the sunny times. Thus these poor sods have to finish if nothing else just for the sake of it after all they maybe closer to the end than the start. Besides who'd want to do those wrteched ATPL exams again 
Come next January things will begin to tail off quite evidently.
Come next January things will begin to tail off quite evidently.
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From: S.A.E
Chris, I agree with what you're saying regarding starting during the bad times....at the end of the day its all about markets and the fact they are cyclical. Imagine what position you'd be in now if you had bought a house 14 months ago and started flight training soon after...a sticky one thats for sure!
I think the credit crunch has been going on for almost a year now but believe there is still some turmoil yet to come. I'm waiting it out, this winter will be very very interesting!
I think the credit crunch has been going on for almost a year now but believe there is still some turmoil yet to come. I'm waiting it out, this winter will be very very interesting!
Supercharged PPRuNer
Joined: Nov 2000
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From: Doon the watter, a million miles from the sandpit.
Aviation cliché no. 126 - 'The last time there was a pilot shortage in the UK was 1939.'
A shortage of experienced FOs or skippers is one thing. Sadly, it has little or no relevance to you guys. There has never been, and never will be, a shortage of wannabes ready and willing to sign their lives away. There have never been, and never will be, enough jobs to satisfy every low-hours wet-ink CPL holder.
The 'pilot shortage' as applied to low-houred inexperienced pilots has never existed and never will. It's a myth that has been perpetuated by the training industry for as long as we've had a training industry. The only thing that varies over time is the number of opportunities for newly qualified pilots, which vary from quite a few to bugger all, depending on the economic climate. There have never been more jobs than applicants.
It's not often I use the word 'never' seven times in one post, but I'm on pretty solid ground here . . .
A shortage of experienced FOs or skippers is one thing. Sadly, it has little or no relevance to you guys. There has never been, and never will be, a shortage of wannabes ready and willing to sign their lives away. There have never been, and never will be, enough jobs to satisfy every low-hours wet-ink CPL holder.
The 'pilot shortage' as applied to low-houred inexperienced pilots has never existed and never will. It's a myth that has been perpetuated by the training industry for as long as we've had a training industry. The only thing that varies over time is the number of opportunities for newly qualified pilots, which vary from quite a few to bugger all, depending on the economic climate. There have never been more jobs than applicants.
It's not often I use the word 'never' seven times in one post, but I'm on pretty solid ground here . . .
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From: Ireland
G Sxty is completely correct. There never was, never will be a shortage of low time pilots. Any 'shortage' such as it exist is in experienced type rated pilots and even then that probably meant you had to move overseas to get the job. So there never is a good or bad time to start training. It's always a gamble, a gamble that pays off eventually for most. If a downturn puts you off being a pilot, maybe you don't really want it enough.
But reading that article, EASA seem intent on creating a pilot shortage with their attempt to Europeanise the training process.
I could forsee a future where there is a low time pilot shortage. When the job becomes so unattractive, the pay so small and the cost of training so prohibitive that even the most dedicated aerosexual will stick to spotting.
But reading that article, EASA seem intent on creating a pilot shortage with their attempt to Europeanise the training process.
I could forsee a future where there is a low time pilot shortage. When the job becomes so unattractive, the pay so small and the cost of training so prohibitive that even the most dedicated aerosexual will stick to spotting.
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by G Sixty
There have never been, and never will be, enough jobs to satisfy every low-hours wet-ink CPL holder.
I know this isn't what anyone wants to hear but in reality self funded commercial pilot training is a mugs game. It's a huge gamble with a large sum of money, i'm not sure what the statistics are of getting employment as flight crew are but I suspect they probably aren't that much better than playing the roulette wheel. If anyone sees the much used cliche, "follow your dream", you'd be wise to read that as "take a punt", but, like the lottery though, you've got to be in it to win it...just be prepared to loose your pound.
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From: S.A.E
I love to gamble lol. I am however considering reducing the stakes considerably and looking into modular training as opposed to Integrated....guess I'll have to delve into those, rather large, 'cans of worms' read as bitching threads about which is best....some hard facts wouldn't go amiss but I guess I'll have to pull those from the overly verbose threads on the subject- joy!
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From: UK
Hmm, lots of doom and gloom. Suprised to hear it from you G-SXTY.
Yes its true its not great but hey ho! G-SXTY im possibly going to be in exactly the same situation as you, spat out of the system by Early Nov, just in time for the Flybe online application to open, who knows three months down the line as you were, it could all work out!!
Of course it could all go pear shaped too, time will tell and luck will tell
Good luck to all
Yes its true its not great but hey ho! G-SXTY im possibly going to be in exactly the same situation as you, spat out of the system by Early Nov, just in time for the Flybe online application to open, who knows three months down the line as you were, it could all work out!!
Of course it could all go pear shaped too, time will tell and luck will tell
Good luck to all
Supercharged PPRuNer
Joined: Nov 2000
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From: Doon the watter, a million miles from the sandpit.
I don't think I'm being unduly negative, just realistic. It's hardly doom and gloom to say that there has never been a shortage of low-houred pilots.
As regards timing, my feeling - based on previous economic cycles - is that things are going to get worse before they get better. I'd love to be proved wrong, but I think jobs are going to be pretty scarce for low-houred guys for at least the next couple of years. I don't believe that's doom and gloom, just economic reality. In any case, anyone not already commited to an integrated course or CPL/IR can turn it to their advantage by slowing the training programme down and biding their time (and money).
Positive enough?
As regards timing, my feeling - based on previous economic cycles - is that things are going to get worse before they get better. I'd love to be proved wrong, but I think jobs are going to be pretty scarce for low-houred guys for at least the next couple of years. I don't believe that's doom and gloom, just economic reality. In any case, anyone not already commited to an integrated course or CPL/IR can turn it to their advantage by slowing the training programme down and biding their time (and money).
Positive enough?
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From: between a rock and a hard place
Originally Posted by 350z
some hard facts wouldn't go amiss
The CAA may have some idea what percentage of people who pass their exams go on to get work based on the number of type ratings issued, may be they would be willing to divulge that sort of information ?
It wouldn't be a bad idea to get a long to a PPRUNE bash and talk to real pilots.(i'm assuming they are attended by real pilots, i've never been to one). The trouble with a dedicated wannabees forum is it's little more than the blind leading the blind when it comes to finding out what's happening out in the real world.
Another option would be to create a ficticious CV and push it out to as many airlines as you can and see what response you get. In reality you'll probably find yourself doing this many times over once you have qualified.
Finally buying a copy of flight international magazine and looking at the situations vacant section will be a good gauge, if the airlines are looking for FOs with lots of jet hours (assuming they are recruiting at all at the moment) it's proably a fair assumption that there are plenty of such pilots out there on the market leaving little room for newly qualified pilots with a few hours of multi engine piston time. Likwise if there are adverts selling right hand seat hours on type, these schemes can only exist if there are plenty of pilots looking who need these hours for these jobs but can't get them any other way.
Fwiw I was reliably informed only yesterday, at least one airline is offering extended leave and early retirement at the moment which is something that companies do to accelerate natural wastage.
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From: tahiti
This could be interesting an interesting debate.
I have yet to meet one single CPL IR ME that has not got a job flying and gave up looking to find another job and never retun to fly again. So yes, flight schools may be correct when saying that all their students find a job.
Where many flight schools are lying to you is when they show you all these very nice pictures of shiny jet airliners on their website telling you that that is what you're gonna get 200 flight hours later.
Otherwise there's plenty of jobs out there.
I know of a couple of bizjet operators who are not using their aircraft at capacity as the pilots they have are not sufficient.
Flight schools are begging for instructors.
The only problem with these kinds of jobs is that you don't get paid the same and it may not be what you were aiming for. On the bright side, type-ratings are alot cheaper and routine is not part of the daily equation.
If you find a nice place, you can be treated as being part of a family.
Patience will reward you.
With all due respect where do you think these facts are going to come from ? Flight training providers tend not to keep records of people who don't get jobs although this wouldn't be a bad idea, it's not just US flight schools that tell you what you want to hear. UK flight schools often employ sales staff for a very good reason and it's not just to answer the phone.
Where many flight schools are lying to you is when they show you all these very nice pictures of shiny jet airliners on their website telling you that that is what you're gonna get 200 flight hours later.
Otherwise there's plenty of jobs out there.
I know of a couple of bizjet operators who are not using their aircraft at capacity as the pilots they have are not sufficient.
Flight schools are begging for instructors.
The only problem with these kinds of jobs is that you don't get paid the same and it may not be what you were aiming for. On the bright side, type-ratings are alot cheaper and routine is not part of the daily equation.
If you find a nice place, you can be treated as being part of a family.
Patience will reward you.
