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Are more or less people training to fly now?

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Are more or less people training to fly now?

Old 26th Jun 2008, 11:37
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Are more or less people training to fly now?

Would just like to get the feel of the industry. Let's say in your local flight school, are more people training in the present time or less?
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Old 26th Jun 2008, 14:26
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Assuming the question you really want answered is "what is the level of competition for jobs I am going to be up against", then the numbers of people attending FTO's is largely irrelevant. That is based on the argument that many many folk fall by the way side during the training. Bristol for example will send out thousands of sets of manuals but many will gather dust on peoples shelves and never get opened. Some people don't have the ability to pass the CPL or IR. Some brilliant aviators simply run out of money near the end and never finish.

Really what you need to get a feel for is the number of licence issues. The CAA website has various statistics going back a number of years. Its all there if you want to go and search under FCL and roam around a bit under the statistics header. Here is a link for the 2006-07 year to get you started.

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/Licenc...20-%202007.pdf

You will never be able to nail down exactly the numbers of folks you will be competing with. The CAA data obviously only details UK issued licences and ratings. Some of those people will disappear back to their home countries seeking work. Others will come from the continent with non-CAA JAA licences. Perhaps it all balances out or maybe it doesn't. Who really knows.

At the end of the day its suffice to say that there will be hundreds if not thousands of people competing for a handful of jobs. The trick is to work out how to get to the front of the queue and get an interview in the first place. Flight training has never been cheaper (when compared to disposable income/average salaries etc) or more accessible which has increased the number of people undertaking the training and upped the ante.
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Old 26th Jun 2008, 15:13
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"Flight training has never been cheaper (when compared to disposable income/average salaries etc)..."

or more accessible which has increased the number of people undertaking the training and upped the ante.

Thanks potkettle. Regarding the highlighted above, can you please elaborate on this statement?
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Old 26th Jun 2008, 16:24
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Getting into this industry is now a process of self selection. You essentially wake up and decide one day that you want to be a pilot and so long as you have the required cash then a savvy marketing person at any FTO will gladly relieve you of an enormous sum of money.

In the past there were less jobs, fewer airlines to boot and a lot of jobs came through sponsored schemes. There were also avenues into civvy street for experienced military flyers. Whichever way you did it there were selection processes where your ability and aptitude were tested to ensure you were a "fit". Of course there was always the self improver route as it was called and the majority of these folks tended to go instructing before landing their first job. Back then the cost of self funding was huge in relation to earnings though which was itself a natural deterrent.

Last edited by potkettleblack; 26th Jun 2008 at 16:41.
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Old 26th Jun 2008, 18:46
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Thanks potkettle. I see what you mean now.
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Old 27th Jun 2008, 02:47
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Flight training has never been cheaper (when compared to disposable income/average salaries etc)...
Additionally,

Pilot salaries have never been lower....
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Old 27th Jun 2008, 11:41
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Not as bad as I thought

There's a lot of doom and gloom about employment, possibly rightly so. Though those figures don't look too bad to me and are about what I'd figured from the main integrated schools plus a reasoned guess at number of successful modular students. New ATPL's of 1200/year isn't so far beyond the predicted vacancy figures for future pilot requirements (in particular the ALTEON forecast in GAPAN), to suggest it's impossible to find a seat soon after qualification. Especially if one is prepared to relocate anywhere in the world for that first job? It looks to me that the odds are about the same as they would be for any good professional job, which again you wouldn't expect to just walk in to.

Last edited by Okavango; 27th Jun 2008 at 11:52.
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Old 27th Jun 2008, 11:49
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I agree with what okangano says....

Everyone thinks its just flying which people struggle to find employment, but think of other industries,,,, not everyone walks straight into a job, sure yes there are a few exceptions to this rule but people think because they can everyone can.... People just have to have patience...

which is why before doing flight training, it is better to have a degree of some sort, so that while u wait u can still move into another industry....

Ive done engineering myself there and kust graduating but I hope after cabair in september 09 when I finish training I can do engineering work for a while until I secure a job in what I really want to do(FLYING).... Its all bout stragety....
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 08:15
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Any other views?

Does anyone else have any other views - I'm surprised WWW and the other doom mongers haven't been along yet and need a balanced argument!!
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 08:53
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I have been at various schools recently for various reasons and they all tend to seem pretty busy in the briefing and planning rooms, don't know if this is an indication of people wanting to go the whole way and is not scientific in any way but it tends to suggest that people are ignoring www's advice.
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 09:18
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I would imagine as the credit crisis deepens and liquidity diminishes their will be less people training; last i heard OAA still had 10 places left to fill on the septermber course..
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 10:12
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'which is why before doing flight training, it is better to have a degree of some sort, so that while u wait u can still move into another industry....'

Exactly. Put yourself in another £20000 debt before starting. That way you can use your geography degree to find the photocopier in your temp. job while you wait for your first airline position...
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 10:29
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Exactly. Put yourself in another £20000 debt before starting. That way you can use your geography degree to find the photocopier in your temp. job while you wait for your first airline position...


I've just graduated with £12k debt - I really don't know how I'm going to afford the £22/month repayment minimum. Oh no

I'm just relieved that my photocopier job will enable me to fund my modular training.
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 11:11
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You want me to Doom Monger? So far I've been mild and kind.

Spending £80k to get a quick 182hrs Frzn ATPL CPL/Multi IR MCC is a total waste of money and you are screwed.

Within months there will be hundreds of commercial pilots with thousands of hours out of work. Unless you are willing to work for nothing or pay to work you will be flipping burgers for a living.

Is that Doomy enough for you?

WWW


ps Sadly its all true.
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 11:16
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Yes - I do appreciate the graduate route is more debt burden these days. For what it's worth, I have a degree and my mates who didn't go to Uni are in similar well paid professional jobs now. They've tended to stay in the locality of home though and haven't had much life experience. Though I'd recommend university on the whole, in these circumstances I'd recommend getting a paid job (if possible aviation related) as soon as possible. If a medical etc stops you flying later you can always be a mature student, and in my experience these are the people who have been most successful (though it does take a LOT more committment to study later in life as other things take over, though this is no bad thing).
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 11:33
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Thanks WWW - to a certain extent I think you're right, most definitley in the near term. As a householder I can vouch for the change in the economy - we were having up to 5 foreign holidays a year over the last few years (including budget airline breaks), now we're looking at spending more time in the UK. I consider we're no more than average, so there simply has to be some effect on the airlines and I don't subscribe to the view that the foreign holiday is the last thing to go.

What I am saying though, is that the employment situation (on balance) is no different to any professional job. I guess it's just luck what part of the cycle you catch it in and prudent people will plan for the worst by having fallback options. In the long term, there simply has to be expansion, particularly China and India (and I don't see that they have adequate training?). Also opening up Iraq oil may change fuel prices etc in the medium to longer term. I'd be interested in your thoughts regarding the global pilot demand over the next 10 years.
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 12:36
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Easy.

Globally the demand for pilots is sky rocketing.

In Europe and the US it is plummeting.

Which is perfectly analgeous for the shift in economic power from West to East. You only speak English, your license is JAA. You have no hope of benefiting from the Eastern expansion and will bear the full brunt of Western contraction.

Several large airline in Europe will be bust by this time next year. Thousands of experienced pilots will be looking for work. How is your CV going to look?

Be prepared to pay to work. That will be the next step.

WWW
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 12:53
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TUPUES

I would say tupues is prob one these boys that never got to uni because they never accepted him......

But when your medical goes by the way side when your thirty and not a decent qualification to your name, and you start crying for money then and only then will you understand...

Remember your only a car crash or beer bottle over the head from lossing your medical...

By the way I did mechanical engineering at uni and was the best exper of my life so far, and would believe that an airline paying out £25,000 or £30,000 for a type rating on a low houred pilot they would go for someone wit some sort of third level education!!!!! (Quote from a training captain from easyjet)
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 13:03
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IF I had a child who wanted to be a pilot then I sure as hell wouldn't want them to go to University.

Been there and drank the t-shirt. 3 years, £12k of debt and a piece of paper that impresses nobody.

Some decent A-Levels to prove you are not thick is about as far as I would take formal education unless you want to enter one of the proper professions (medicine, law, accountancy).

The real return on investment on a degree is absolutely pitiful. Its also stressful and boring. No wonder the Labour party are so enthusiastic about them.


WWW
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Old 1st Jul 2008, 13:12
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WWW

Thats in your own opinion and some people will agree but yes a drank the whole way through winged it the whole way, but I came out at the end of the day with a job workin now for Bombardier as a composite engineer earned around 28K before tax,,, not a bad start for going away to do flight training,,not to mention already involved in designing composite structure for engine nacelles... All in all university was well worth it and i didnt work the balls of myself!!!!

University must be different in England!!!!!
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