Industry outlook, oil prices
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Industry outlook, oil prices
In Europe we have the advantage that we don't need a crystal ball for predicting the effect of increasing oil prices on air travel. The US airlines have bigger problems because of their weak dollar, but the bullish outlook in the oil price makes it likely that airlines in Europe will soon be facing the same situation. It's pretty spectacular: despite recession they still have a strong demand, but Southwest airlines will be making a loss for the first time in 17 years. Just because of oil prices!
Airlines cut jobs, ground planes as fuel costs soar
http://www.statesman.com/business/co...9airlines.html
Don't want to be negative, but I think it is a factor to consider before you make a large investment in flight training. Air travel won't collapse, but it seems that the outlook of IATA and Airbus are unrealistic about the growth of aviation. Anyway, time will tell.
Airlines cut jobs, ground planes as fuel costs soar
http://www.statesman.com/business/co...9airlines.html
Don't want to be negative, but I think it is a factor to consider before you make a large investment in flight training. Air travel won't collapse, but it seems that the outlook of IATA and Airbus are unrealistic about the growth of aviation. Anyway, time will tell.
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I guess if saccade convinces everyone that this is true, he will have more chance of getting a job.
The way I see it, people need to travel, more now than ever. So no doubt fuel will run short oneday, but the oil will be replaced by something else, whether it's coal, steam, hydrogen, nuclear. It will still require pilots to operate. They will still be planes and still fly by the same rules.
Before all this happens, I'm guessing all of us will be retired, as its probably 40 years from now
The way I see it, people need to travel, more now than ever. So no doubt fuel will run short oneday, but the oil will be replaced by something else, whether it's coal, steam, hydrogen, nuclear. It will still require pilots to operate. They will still be planes and still fly by the same rules.
Before all this happens, I'm guessing all of us will be retired, as its probably 40 years from now
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Yeah definitely, anyone thinking about starting aviation training should give up now! The industry is going to die and there will no longer be any jobs for pilots! Where does that leave you?- Jobless and £60k in debt! Do you really think its worth it?? I don't! i really wouldn't be thinking about it if I were you, give up now!!
....sorry I couldn't resist! I can't wait to start my Integrated APP FO course at OAA! lol.
....sorry I couldn't resist! I can't wait to start my Integrated APP FO course at OAA! lol.
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people need o travel more now than 10 years ago.
There is more need now for pilots tha 10 years ago,at least where i am.
u going on about the users giving up their dreams because oil prices but you never mentioned airlines expanding i.e
http://www.aviationnews.eu/?p=1612
maybe you should lay off and let people follow their dreams.
There is more need now for pilots tha 10 years ago,at least where i am.
u going on about the users giving up their dreams because oil prices but you never mentioned airlines expanding i.e
http://www.aviationnews.eu/?p=1612
maybe you should lay off and let people follow their dreams.
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BTW:
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=519509
just for you that believe pilots should fly aircraft that their engines run on oil products and believe that after oil runs out we will be without jobs
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=519509
just for you that believe pilots should fly aircraft that their engines run on oil products and believe that after oil runs out we will be without jobs
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nearly every post and thread you have made on Pprune has been about oil.
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I agree, people don't need to travel as much as they do. And thats one of the first things that stops when the economy goes pear shaped.
But it ain't going to happen to th whole world, So as long as you are prepared to work in Africa, China, ect, there won't be a problem
But it ain't going to happen to th whole world, So as long as you are prepared to work in Africa, China, ect, there won't be a problem
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you never mentioned airlines expanding
maybe you should lay off and let people follow their dreams.
easyJets shareprice tanked 16% this morning on news that the oil price was going to knock nearly £50m off the bottom line this year. Like all major UK airlines the share price is now half what it was last year.
House prices are falling everywhere. Mortgages are getting more expensive and inflation is soaring. Job losses are just starting. The worlds largest economy is in recession and we will be by the end of the year. The public finances are a disgrace. The green lobby is harming aviation and shorthaul breaks in Europe are not helped by the Euro rising 15% against the pound. The CEO of a major UK airline today stated that smaller less efficient airlines would probably fail soon as the airline sector downsizes and amalgamates. Openskies is about to arrive on the transatlantic whilst the Middle Eastern carriers continue to improve and expand their product whilst not worrying about the fuel costs their Soveriegn owners pump out of their own deserts.
In 1990 when we entered the last recession we went from the Lawson late eighties boom to the collapse of several household name airlines in the matter of a year. Thousands of pilots were out of work and many took the option of flying rubber dogpoo out of Hong Kong and worse.
It happens faster and harder than you probably can imagine. As a 200hr Wannabe you'll struggle to get an interview at the McDonalds drive-thru because there will be 5 guys with turbine time already at the interview stage.
Its going to be ugly, 100%, guaranteed.
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House prices are falling everywhere. Mortgages are getting more expensive and inflation is soaring. Job losses are just starting. The worlds largest economy is in recession and we will be by the end of the year. The public finances are a disgrace. The green lobby is harming aviation and shorthaul breaks in Europe are not helped by the Euro rising 15% against the pound. The CEO of a major UK airline today stated that smaller less efficient airlines would probably fail soon as the airline sector downsizes and amalgamates. Openskies is about to arrive on the transatlantic whilst the Middle Eastern carriers continue to improve and expand their product whilst not worrying about the fuel costs their Soveriegn owners pump out of their own deserts.
In 1990 when we entered the last recession we went from the Lawson late eighties boom to the collapse of several household name airlines in the matter of a year. Thousands of pilots were out of work and many took the option of flying rubber dogpoo out of Hong Kong and worse.
It happens faster and harder than you probably can imagine. As a 200hr Wannabe you'll struggle to get an interview at the McDonalds drive-thru because there will be 5 guys with turbine time already at the interview stage.
Its going to be ugly, 100%, guaranteed.
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I have actually put my training on hold because of the weakening outlook... was not an easy decision to take but with the oil price where it is and a profit warning almost daily at the moment from different airlines much as I would love to believe 'it will be fine' a conversation with an aviation analyst and several experienced line pilots made me decide that a more conservative stance is probably required (you think easyjet is bad Ryanair have not hedged their oil costs into 08/09 I am told 
). Just didn't feel like I wanted to be popping out of the training pipeline in 6-12 months time (and I wouldn't get into debt to finish my training... and I've already done written exams!)... I'll be back but when the sun is coming up on an economic cycle not going down....
.... for now I wil content myself with something fun to fly at the weekends...
). Just didn't feel like I wanted to be popping out of the training pipeline in 6-12 months time (and I wouldn't get into debt to finish my training... and I've already done written exams!)... I'll be back but when the sun is coming up on an economic cycle not going down........ for now I wil content myself with something fun to fly at the weekends...
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I am a wannabe, and i do worry about recession and oil question.
But people will need to travel, borders are gone (in europe especially) and we're moving globally very much. Companies everywhere in the world seek opportunities to enlarge/expand their business globally (wreight, business travel), people are getting wealthier in not-so-developed countries (i.e. China, India..) and they will have change to see something else than their backyards.
But oil runs out, there will come time when pilots may lose their jobs, but i believe it will recover very fast, because like i said - we need to travel. No matter is the energy we use oil, hydrogen, nuclear,tidal,solar etc. We have engineers which will make it possible, it is a smaller challenge than heavier-than- air flight back then
But people will need to travel, borders are gone (in europe especially) and we're moving globally very much. Companies everywhere in the world seek opportunities to enlarge/expand their business globally (wreight, business travel), people are getting wealthier in not-so-developed countries (i.e. China, India..) and they will have change to see something else than their backyards.
But oil runs out, there will come time when pilots may lose their jobs, but i believe it will recover very fast, because like i said - we need to travel. No matter is the energy we use oil, hydrogen, nuclear,tidal,solar etc. We have engineers which will make it possible, it is a smaller challenge than heavier-than- air flight back then
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saccade,
The current oil prices are because of the current economic climate. It has nothing to do with the amount of oil left. Hence, when the world economy gets out of this rut it's heading for things will carry on as usual. Sure we're heading for rough times, but eventually it will right itself. The only problem is economists simply don't know when and they also don't know how bad it actually will get.
So my point is, despite the downturn and oil prices rising, there will be light at the end of the tunnel. Whether or not you want to take a risk with training now is up to your discretion. But remember, all is not doom and gloom - more millionaires are made during recession than any other time (but to be fair those millionaires aren't going to make millions flying planes).
The current oil prices are because of the current economic climate. It has nothing to do with the amount of oil left. Hence, when the world economy gets out of this rut it's heading for things will carry on as usual. Sure we're heading for rough times, but eventually it will right itself. The only problem is economists simply don't know when and they also don't know how bad it actually will get.
So my point is, despite the downturn and oil prices rising, there will be light at the end of the tunnel. Whether or not you want to take a risk with training now is up to your discretion. But remember, all is not doom and gloom - more millionaires are made during recession than any other time
(but to be fair those millionaires aren't going to make millions flying planes).
I am reminded of a certain Blackadder Goes Fourth Sketch: General Melchet (bellowing); "And if NOTHING else a blind refusal to face facts will see us through - BAhhHHH!".
This is the phoney war stage.
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This is the phoney war stage.
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Nichibei,
Let me make a prediction then. The UK will join the Euro at some stage within the next decade.
And just one more point. The UK's economy is much more dependent on the US economy than the EU economy. UK exports to the US far outweigh the value of exports to the EU.
Let me make a prediction then. The UK will join the Euro at some stage within the next decade.
And just one more point. The UK's economy is much more dependent on the US economy than the EU economy. UK exports to the US far outweigh the value of exports to the EU.
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I started a similar thread a while ago (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=280719), I was surprised how little prospective pilots knew about the subject despite having their careers invested in the single industry most dependent on cheap oil.
From reading saccade's posts it sounds like he's done his homework and that he 'gets it'.
It was during my final CPL training that I first started learning about the oil industry - I've already got my license and paid my money - but I've subsequently made the decision to stick to my previous career that is not so utterly dependent on cheap oil. Aviation is simply not a good career choice in their 20's or 30's expecting it to last for decades. There is simply not enough cheap oil remaining. I certainly didn't take this decision lightly.
But don't take my word for it - do a little research, if you're thinking of spending 60k then why not spend an hour and read this article (http://dieoff.org/page140.htm) for an introduction. (It's written by a retired geologist - the kind of guy who spent his career make analytical decisions based on verifiable facts, not political persuasions that fit the current fashion). There's a slight chance that people like me and saccade aren't crazy wacko's just following the latest enviro-religion but might actually speak of serious concerns.
I actually expect the oil price to fall over the next couple of years as recession bites but that will lull the world into a false sense of security and delay the real geologically-imposed peak 5-10 years later.
I wouldn't be so concerned about this whole peak oil thing if it wasn't for the attitude of the detractors. The argument's against an imminent supply shortfall always lack open analytical research using verifiable data and typically boil down to "trust us" or open-ended phrases like "enough for the foreseeable future".
Anyone in the UK remember the fuel blockade in 2000 - amazing how unforeseen and unprepared we were for something so simple - surely that could never happen again?
How many people we still "need to travel" when oil is $1000 a barrel and a trip across the atlantic is 6-months salary?
Yes, it's true that oil is currently being used as a hedge against a falling US dollar (which partly explains the recent price rise) but that doesn't explain why 60% of all oil producing nations have already peaked and are now in decline - and they are joined by more every year. See the published numbers in the BP Statistical Review (http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?...tentId=7033471) if you don't believe me.
I think young prospective pilots taking out huge loans need to be aware of this. I wish I was wrong - I really do.
From reading saccade's posts it sounds like he's done his homework and that he 'gets it'.
It was during my final CPL training that I first started learning about the oil industry - I've already got my license and paid my money - but I've subsequently made the decision to stick to my previous career that is not so utterly dependent on cheap oil. Aviation is simply not a good career choice in their 20's or 30's expecting it to last for decades. There is simply not enough cheap oil remaining. I certainly didn't take this decision lightly.
But don't take my word for it - do a little research, if you're thinking of spending 60k then why not spend an hour and read this article (http://dieoff.org/page140.htm) for an introduction. (It's written by a retired geologist - the kind of guy who spent his career make analytical decisions based on verifiable facts, not political persuasions that fit the current fashion). There's a slight chance that people like me and saccade aren't crazy wacko's just following the latest enviro-religion but might actually speak of serious concerns.
I actually expect the oil price to fall over the next couple of years as recession bites but that will lull the world into a false sense of security and delay the real geologically-imposed peak 5-10 years later.
I wouldn't be so concerned about this whole peak oil thing if it wasn't for the attitude of the detractors. The argument's against an imminent supply shortfall always lack open analytical research using verifiable data and typically boil down to "trust us" or open-ended phrases like "enough for the foreseeable future".
Anyone in the UK remember the fuel blockade in 2000 - amazing how unforeseen and unprepared we were for something so simple - surely that could never happen again?
Originally Posted by MarcoFF
we need to travel
Originally Posted by Nichibei Aviation
The dollar is falling. Oil prices quoted in dollars are rising.
I think young prospective pilots taking out huge loans need to be aware of this. I wish I was wrong - I really do.
Last edited by v6g; 19th Mar 2008 at 23:46.
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With economic downturn a reality now i think all of us low houred guys will see stiff competition for any jobs from experienced pilots finding themselves jobless as airlines start to go under. I got my blue book yesterday and i am already considering what else i can do to earn a wage until the economy sorts itself out. I hate to be negative but aviation is always the last thing to show improvement from an upward economy and the first thing to suffer as it downturns.
As for other parts of the world's continuing to boom in aviation, when a butterfly flaps it's wings in New York the ripple can be felt in Beijing! The credit crunch is a global problem, i'm sure Emirates will feel it when people in the UK can't afford to make use of their new UK routes.
As for other parts of the world's continuing to boom in aviation, when a butterfly flaps it's wings in New York the ripple can be felt in Beijing! The credit crunch is a global problem, i'm sure Emirates will feel it when people in the UK can't afford to make use of their new UK routes.
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Berksflyer, you said:
"It has nothing to do with the amount of oil left."
There are reports of enough oil under the Prudhoe Bay area in Alaska to last for the next 200 years.
phil
"It has nothing to do with the amount of oil left."
There are reports of enough oil under the Prudhoe Bay area in Alaska to last for the next 200 years.
phil
This thread should not drift into a discussion about peak oil.
Its the economy stupid. People's disposable income really is being squeezed by falling asset prices, increased finance costs and a loss of confidence. Discretionary spending is taking a big hit whether its sofas, PC's, cars, frocks, restaurants or leisure. A large percentage of airline revenues come from discretionary spending so it doesn't take a genius to work out what will happen.
Airlines work on tiny margins with highly expensive fixed costs. Which makes them unstable. Which is why most pilots have worked for an airline that no longer exists today.
We've had a boom since 1997. Booms end in busts. Guess where we are now..
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Its the economy stupid. People's disposable income really is being squeezed by falling asset prices, increased finance costs and a loss of confidence. Discretionary spending is taking a big hit whether its sofas, PC's, cars, frocks, restaurants or leisure. A large percentage of airline revenues come from discretionary spending so it doesn't take a genius to work out what will happen.
Airlines work on tiny margins with highly expensive fixed costs. Which makes them unstable. Which is why most pilots have worked for an airline that no longer exists today.
We've had a boom since 1997. Booms end in busts. Guess where we are now..
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