Industry outlook, oil prices
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Jonjam WWW and others on this site were warning wanabees about the UK mortgage market seizing up 4-5 months ago now and they were met with the same "it ain't gonna happen" response..... well you admit yourself it has... and it is still getting worse (did you see HBOS share price last week?). The US is already arguably in recession and growth forecasts in the UK are still being downgraded.... this will impact how wealthy people feel and how much they are willing to spend on hols/travel etc
People are now warning about a downturn in the aviation cycle that is frankly as clear as the day is long but wanabees still don't want to listen. That of course is their choice but you have to admit it is important people are told how life is currently in the real world before spending 50-100k on the hope of getting a job in 12 months time when frankly there may not be many about?
If that involves acting as a counterbalance on Pprune to the numerous flight training organisation that constantly post glowing reviews about how the world is going to be all bright and rosey then the cautious commentary serves a very necessary purpose.
I can tell you from first hand experience that conditions in the financial markets that "oil the cogs" of the global economy have perhaps not been this jammed up since 1929. Ongoing government intervention means that things may get better but a huge amount of damage has already been done that is only just beginning to filter through into the "real economy" (e.g. a falling availablility of mortgages etc).... yes we will probably muddle through but you have to admit the chances of getting a job in 12 months time are not going to be the same as they have been for the past 1-2 years.
People are now warning about a downturn in the aviation cycle that is frankly as clear as the day is long but wanabees still don't want to listen. That of course is their choice but you have to admit it is important people are told how life is currently in the real world before spending 50-100k on the hope of getting a job in 12 months time when frankly there may not be many about?
If that involves acting as a counterbalance on Pprune to the numerous flight training organisation that constantly post glowing reviews about how the world is going to be all bright and rosey then the cautious commentary serves a very necessary purpose.
I can tell you from first hand experience that conditions in the financial markets that "oil the cogs" of the global economy have perhaps not been this jammed up since 1929. Ongoing government intervention means that things may get better but a huge amount of damage has already been done that is only just beginning to filter through into the "real economy" (e.g. a falling availablility of mortgages etc).... yes we will probably muddle through but you have to admit the chances of getting a job in 12 months time are not going to be the same as they have been for the past 1-2 years.
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Nichibei Aviation, the good thing about this thread is that you show your true colours. You deliberately lie, deceive and misrepresent the facts to show what you would like them to show. You try to turn everything into an argument for joining your flight school, but when you are so willing to slaughter the truth for personal gain it must be assumed that you would not for one second hesitate to screw over your students. An organisation devoid of moral to maximise financial gain should be avoided at all costs and I sincerely hope that wannabes manage to see through your smoke screen and steer well clear of you.
I have followed your posts for a while now and it never ceases to amaze me what you claim to have knowledge of. It was pitiful when you tried to lecture on the Scandinavian market from your island on the other side of the world.
Whether or not students should start their training is decision, which can only be made by themselves. Ppprune is a place of information. The only thing you provide is misinformation. Naturally, you’ll come out guns blazing with more senseless propaganda praising your organisation and trying to fend off this direct attack on your dubious character. Perhaps you should contact RyanAir. MOL would be proud of you.
I have followed your posts for a while now and it never ceases to amaze me what you claim to have knowledge of. It was pitiful when you tried to lecture on the Scandinavian market from your island on the other side of the world.
Whether or not students should start their training is decision, which can only be made by themselves. Ppprune is a place of information. The only thing you provide is misinformation. Naturally, you’ll come out guns blazing with more senseless propaganda praising your organisation and trying to fend off this direct attack on your dubious character. Perhaps you should contact RyanAir. MOL would be proud of you.
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I don't wish to get involved directly in this discussion, because (unlike many who are participating in this) I'm happy to admit I don't know enough about it. One thing I would comment on though, is that everyone should take a pinch of salt when discussing the world economy on a pilots forum. I doubt you'll find monetary policy makers on PPRuNe, which makes anything on here opinion, although obviously in some cases researched and to a greater or lesser degree accurate opinion.
The only real point I did want to make however, was in relation to WWWs last post. A case of semantics really, but the banks do NOT set share prices. All the city analysts will do is look at the outlook for a given company in context of the socio-political outlook and predicted economical trends and on the basis of this make recommendations to buy, sell or hold shares. The actual share price is determined simply by supply and demand - look no further than the late 90s dot com boom for a great example of hideously overvalued companys that continued to rise. It's slightly untrue to say the banks have no input to all of this as clearly the banks trade inter-bank to fulfill customer orders and to profit themselves, but they don't directly "decide" what the share prices should be
Non of this detracts from the main point that WWW has made, if anything it strengthens the point as it's actually the public that has no appetite for these shares, which indicates either a lack of disposable income to spend on shares, or a lack of faith in the aviation industry...either way, not good.
What will be interesting is to monitor the governments continuing efforts to fend off a full blown economic downturn and how far they can [are willing to] go to prop the economy up. One final point, it's not a good environment currently, but it's not as bad as some would have you believe.
I am mid training currently, but my previous job (analyst with Barclays Capital) is not so dim and distant that I'm completely off the boil now. Granted, I don't view the current economic situation as advantageous to my chances when I finish in Dec, but neither am I going to pull out of training now.
Lastly, different topic, but Nichibei - I don't mean this as a personal offence at you, but half your problem is that you constantly position yourself as a master of all things in all continents - yet you have missed sooooooo many salient points in different posts (perfect example, the OAA/Netjets scheme thread where you demonstrated a total lack of understanding of the scheme, the renumeration package on offer and the loan repayment methods, yet still insisted you were right - even in the face of contradictory evidence from those with far greater knowledge of the scheme than yourself - namely those ON the scheme) that you unravel all of the good points you make.
You clearly don't believe in the integrated route, which is your choice, but you consistently fail to recognise the drawbacks of modular at the same time. This leads to the general consensus that your only interest is in promoting the services of your employer...again leading to a discrediting of your good points. The truth, as I think most if not all, would agree is that both routes have benefits and both have drawbacks. Each individual needs to assess those in context of their own situation and make their own judgement which represents the best training method. Your views are so deeply polarised however, that it discredits you. For all the grief OAA take on these pages, if you speak to them they will lay out the benefits and drawbacks of both methods of training and I know people they have recommended to either route and not even necessarily at OAA. As I say, I mean no offence to you, this is only intended as helpful. As a wise man once said, know exactly enough to know you know nothing. You would gain a lot more credibility if occassionally you would admit to having it wrong, or just not knowing the answer....
The only real point I did want to make however, was in relation to WWWs last post. A case of semantics really, but the banks do NOT set share prices. All the city analysts will do is look at the outlook for a given company in context of the socio-political outlook and predicted economical trends and on the basis of this make recommendations to buy, sell or hold shares. The actual share price is determined simply by supply and demand - look no further than the late 90s dot com boom for a great example of hideously overvalued companys that continued to rise. It's slightly untrue to say the banks have no input to all of this as clearly the banks trade inter-bank to fulfill customer orders and to profit themselves, but they don't directly "decide" what the share prices should be
Non of this detracts from the main point that WWW has made, if anything it strengthens the point as it's actually the public that has no appetite for these shares, which indicates either a lack of disposable income to spend on shares, or a lack of faith in the aviation industry...either way, not good.
What will be interesting is to monitor the governments continuing efforts to fend off a full blown economic downturn and how far they can [are willing to] go to prop the economy up. One final point, it's not a good environment currently, but it's not as bad as some would have you believe.
I am mid training currently, but my previous job (analyst with Barclays Capital) is not so dim and distant that I'm completely off the boil now. Granted, I don't view the current economic situation as advantageous to my chances when I finish in Dec, but neither am I going to pull out of training now.
Lastly, different topic, but Nichibei - I don't mean this as a personal offence at you, but half your problem is that you constantly position yourself as a master of all things in all continents - yet you have missed sooooooo many salient points in different posts (perfect example, the OAA/Netjets scheme thread where you demonstrated a total lack of understanding of the scheme, the renumeration package on offer and the loan repayment methods, yet still insisted you were right - even in the face of contradictory evidence from those with far greater knowledge of the scheme than yourself - namely those ON the scheme) that you unravel all of the good points you make.
You clearly don't believe in the integrated route, which is your choice, but you consistently fail to recognise the drawbacks of modular at the same time. This leads to the general consensus that your only interest is in promoting the services of your employer...again leading to a discrediting of your good points. The truth, as I think most if not all, would agree is that both routes have benefits and both have drawbacks. Each individual needs to assess those in context of their own situation and make their own judgement which represents the best training method. Your views are so deeply polarised however, that it discredits you. For all the grief OAA take on these pages, if you speak to them they will lay out the benefits and drawbacks of both methods of training and I know people they have recommended to either route and not even necessarily at OAA. As I say, I mean no offence to you, this is only intended as helpful. As a wise man once said, know exactly enough to know you know nothing. You would gain a lot more credibility if occassionally you would admit to having it wrong, or just not knowing the answer....
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You clearly don't believe in the integrated route, which is your choice, but you consistently fail to recognise the drawbacks of modular at the same time. This leads to the general consensus that your only interest is in promoting the services of your employer...again leading to a discrediting of your good points.
As demonstrated in the OAA/NJE topic, the scheme is overpriced.
If you go modular, join an air taxi company for 2 years and then apply to NJE, you'll save alot on the training and you'll benefit from the full salary 4 years earlier than your colleagues from OAA. That's a huge difference if you ask me. Another disadvantage is that you are bonded to NJE.
I have exagerated some aspects of the cost indeed but the point was made.
Integrated or modular, the job chances are the same.
This is their view of the three largest airline flying into and out of the UK:
All shares of all airlines in Europe have dropped strongly in 2007 but traffic has grown 5%. Which one is the real indicator of job prospects?
It seems that moderators have deleted some posts of mine that have made good points.
I will repost them here:
The US military intervention over the past decades is all about securing an adequate flow of oil. The US oil production peaked in 1970 and from that moment they were more and more dependent on imported oil. The fuel crises in 1973 and 1979 made it very clear how vulnerable an economy is without enough oil.
Literally words from president Bush the first, in relation to the first gulf war:
"The stakes are high. Iraq is already a rich and powerful country. It possesses the world's second-largest reserves of oil and over a million men under arms. It's the fourth-largest military in the world. Our country now imports nearly half the oil it consumes and could face a major threat to its economic independence. Much of the world is even more dependent upon imported oil and is even more vulnerable to Iraqi threats."
Literally words from president Bush the first, in relation to the first gulf war:
"The stakes are high. Iraq is already a rich and powerful country. It possesses the world's second-largest reserves of oil and over a million men under arms. It's the fourth-largest military in the world. Our country now imports nearly half the oil it consumes and could face a major threat to its economic independence. Much of the world is even more dependent upon imported oil and is even more vulnerable to Iraqi threats."
<H3>$90 a barrel: Is it time to start worrying about the oil price shock of 2007?
Oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 were each followed by a recession. But we saw the price of oil climb from $20 a barrel in 2002 to $75 a year ago, and so far it has not resulted in a significant economic downturn. What's different now, and can we count on it to continue?
We got the AEA january statistics:
Passenger-km grew just 2.8%, the lowest monthly growth rate excluding calendar effects (Easter and leap year) since September 2003. Cross-border traffic within Europe remained relatively buoyant at plus 5.7% but domestic traffic registered a drop of 2.4%.
The two largest longhaul regions both posted low growth rates, of 1.7% in the case of the North Atlantic and 0.9% for Far Eastern routes. The South Atlantic retained its place as AEA’s top-performing market at plus 10.0% but suffered a major slump in load factor, of 5.4 percentage points.
The two largest longhaul regions both posted low growth rates, of 1.7% in the case of the North Atlantic and 0.9% for Far Eastern routes. The South Atlantic retained its place as AEA’s top-performing market at plus 10.0% but suffered a major slump in load factor, of 5.4 percentage points.
Just to avoid that some start panicking when reading "5.4% load factor slump", when capacity is added, load factors tend to decrease. Ryanair's load factors are decreasing year after year but their fleet is growing, therefore total traffic is growing.
Europe's fleet is growing bigger: the AEA figures show that capacity has increased by 4.4% compared to January 2007.
Also domestic figures decrease are justified by alternative means of transport. AirFrance has decided this month to cut alot of domestic routes because more customers decide to take the TGV.
Europe's fleet is growing bigger: the AEA figures show that capacity has increased by 4.4% compared to January 2007.
Also domestic figures decrease are justified by alternative means of transport. AirFrance has decided this month to cut alot of domestic routes because more customers decide to take the TGV.
Nichibei Aviation, the good thing about this thread is that you show your true colours. You deliberately lie, deceive and misrepresent the facts to show what you would like them to show.
Try to find arguments to prove me wrong instead of just saying I'm lying, that's too easy. You can not judge an organisation based on one employee who is giving figures to support facts. I'm a student pilot myself and I'm sharing info that people do not have at hand. For your info, Nichibei is also not interested in the European market but is aiming at the Asian market.
By 2010-2011, big flight schools charging high prices will start having difficult times. The same way there was an emerging number of low-cost carriers, there are an emerging number of low-cost flight schools.
To people who intend to spend 60k+ now: by the time you graduate or during your training there will be training becoming available for 20K. So think twice before enrolling integrated. If you go modular, you will still have the possibility of switching schools.
Just to prove you that this is the actual tendency: http://www.gsaviation.it/scuola.php
See the prices of that flight school? It's like 70% cheaper than the famous integrated flight schools.
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No plans of capacity reduction yet, but $100+ oil is definitely spoiling O'leary mood. Ryanair is for 97,5% unhedged in the next financial year and the fuel bill will probably be around 55%-60% of the total operating costs of Ryanair in 2008 (it was 39% when hedged at $68 last year).
Ryanair seeks 400 mln eur in cost cuts to offset oil price, imposes pay freeze
O'Leary said Ryanair's 2008 fuel bill would rise by about 400 mln eur, and confirmed the airline needs to cut costs by the same amount.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...3-24032276.htm
My question remains: what happens when oil hits $200, or $300 over the next few years? Do the FTO's know the answer to this?
Ryanair seeks 400 mln eur in cost cuts to offset oil price, imposes pay freeze
O'Leary said Ryanair's 2008 fuel bill would rise by about 400 mln eur, and confirmed the airline needs to cut costs by the same amount.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...3-24032276.htm
My question remains: what happens when oil hits $200, or $300 over the next few years? Do the FTO's know the answer to this?
