Would you fly?
 

So, tomorrow, I'm planning to take a short XC flight of around 35 minutes. I'll have to route around Stansted, but other than that, the airspace is fairly clear. I'll be leaving as soon as possible (around 07:15), and so far, the weather forecast is this, cloudy 45% and precipitation 2%, getting better throughout the day. Returning at 4, and the weather looking much better.

My question is, would you do it? It's Earls Colne to Leicester, outbound 07:15, inbound 15:45. From what I can see, I reckon it'll be fine, but obviously won't know for sure until the day.

Many thanks

Unfortunately, your question I don't think can be answered here. Soley due to every person reading this will have a different experience/confidence level. So It's your decision only. If the majority say GO then it all goes tits up who are you going to blame if your still around.

Sorry for being what appears negative but. its your call really.....

Obviously you won't be able to tell for certain until the morning, but based on the highlighted bit from the current Stansted TAF I wouldn't have much confidence for a departure that early:

EGSS 061055Z 0612/0718 22003KT 4600 HZ FEW030 BECMG 0612/0615 16010KT 9999 NSW TEMPO 0615/0621 8000 BECMG 0621/0624 7000 -RA BKN009 TEMPO 0622/0701 4500 RADZ BKN004 BECMG 0701/0704 1200 -RADZ BR BKN003 PROB40 TEMPO 0701/0710 DZ TEMPO 0702/0713 0300 FG OVC000 BECMG 0711/0714 27005KT 3000 BR BKN012 BECMG 0714/0717 6000 NSW FEW012 PROB30 0717/0718 0300 FG BKN001

All you need now is some who says yeh weathers great go for it. what will you do?

Your forecast information is far too vague. As highlighted you should, as a minimum,look at all the TAFs for airports in the area you are planning to fly through. And keep checking them at regular intervals through the evening and then, most importantly, in the morning.

For GA flying, 24 hours in advance I tend to use the forecast to either say, definitely dont go, or it may be OK, so keep planning.

Then on the day itself I can make a reasonably informed decision. Very early starts are difficult though because you may find not enough METARS are available to tell you if things are actually doing what the forecast says.

Sounds like you're planning a flight for a business meeting? Tempting to fly. But maybe not such a great idea because it introduces pressures and constraints that you could do without. Once flew with a very experienced ATPL holder to a meeting, and we spent the whole time looking out the widow at the worsening weather, not giving the meeting our full attention. Needless to say we didnt get the sale.

Back in my student pilot days, while I was marking time waiting to be old enough to take my flight test, I had only my solo cross country to complete. I recall asking my instructor on several different days if the weather was good enough to fly my cross country. His reply was always, "I don't think so", so I just flew circuits or in the practice area instead.

Next time, I asked my instructor if the weather was good enough, and he said "I don't think so". As I turned away to contemplate more circuits, another instructor whispered to me "check the weather yourself!". I did, and is was perfectly fine for the intended flight. (This was decades before the information age, when checking weather actually required effort)

Not wanting to affront my instructor, I none the less, returned to him, and said "I just checked the weather, and it seems fine for my flight". He cheerfully replied, "Great, have a great flight then!".

I learned to listen to advice, but to gather my own information, and make my own decision.

The flying school routes for cross country flights were carefully planned to be in well covered weather reporting areas. There are, and are still large areas in Canada where weather information is sparse, and really good decision making is required.

Very valid point. I do have a back up plan should it come to it, so will be up early enough to drive should I require it, which will also allow time to assess the weather etc

I would still use my own judgement, but I always like to get other's opinions on things before I contemplate something.

Thank you all :)

You do not state your experience and qualifications. That would be a good start.

Relatively low hour ppl

You should always take the view that you need to stretch your flight envelope.

You shouldn't wait for the perfect day - there are too few of those. BUT as a low-time PPL be aware of your limitations and watch for changes in the weather.

As a low-time PPL you should beware of pushing the envelope too far, but I agree, you need to be comfortable in making your own decisions and having a lot of alternative options. Whenever possible try to avoid being left with only one option

1. It is February and not very stable weather condition, so I doubt fog will be gone as early as 7z,
2. you should not put yourself under pressure, especially not as a low time ppl,
3. you definitely won't know until tomorrow morning given the weather systems situation,
4. you may have to sit until 10 or 11 before sky is clear enough,
5. do you have some instrument rating and a capable machine?,
6. ask yourself seriously: will you be able to sit in the aircraft, ready to take off for maybe an hour or two or three, only to push it back in the hangar and take the car?,
7. ask yourself: what will you do when weather get worse and you have to leave the plane at the other airfield and take something else for the ride back home, are you able to do that?,
8. maybe the most important question: what is the purpose of you asking this question here? Your local friends would be far better advisors compared to us, as they know the area much better than we do and they know you. Did they already say No?

You declared yourself "relatively low hour PPL".
You have trouble making this decision.
How good you are to make another decision in flight, i.e. when weather deteriorates unexpected?

I tend to advice, do not go.
Wait for better circumstances to further learn.
Try such weather and to challenge your decision uncertainty for a local flight first.

I'd be mainly considering plan 'B', unless the METAR/TAF looks much better in the morning.

It's sometimes good to stretch yourself, but not when you really need to get somewhere.......that can lead to bad decision making.

Be very careful how you ask this sort of thing, given the STN TAF it looks fairly unlikely you willl go, but if it was better some might might be saying yes, for example I might say yes, but I have 20,000+ hrs and an IR so not relevant to your experience and possibly the aircraft you are flying. The forecast that you used in your origional post is also inadequate, it gives no indication of cloudbase or visibility as can be seen in the TAF, and these are far more important than if your aircraft will get wet or not!

Check Form to request gramet aero for EGSS_EGNX ... does not look feasible that early.

Just a short reply from a retired airline pilot. Always have a Plan B, C and D, and don't hesitate to use them. (D could be: take the car) As one of my wise co-pilots used to say: "There'll be other days chief"

If I was authorising your flight with my Instructor hat on you would not be going.....

Decided not to go, having checked the latest forecast, and will be taking the Skoda machine instead. It's a shame, but there's no way I'm jeopardising the safety of myself and others just for a flight, as you say, there'll be other days.
Thanks :)

I've always thought it silly to make the decision too early, forecasts are often wrong, this morning was supposed to be 300m vis & broken at 300ft until 12 before "becoming 10km vis & SCT 3500" yet today turned out to be very pleasant from about 9am where I am. Always err on the side of caution, but you could always re-assess early morning.

If you don't like it - drive there rather than to the airfield! :-)

Congratulations on making a sensible command decision.

Another Ogimet fan I guess. That site is the business, I love it

This close, use the TAFS. There's a forecast TAF at both airfields which will give you better situational awareness.

Three ways of classifying a trip when you have TAFS:

1. Fine at both ends - fly
2. Review in the morning, gear up plan B
3. Bin it now and accept plan B

I'm a low(ish) hour PPL, don't have IMC and night. Looking at both TAFs (and the exceptionally useful Ogimet shown above) this trip falls into point 3. 4600m will preclude you from making any airspace transits (1500m outside CAS, 5000m required inside CAS). The TAF isn't clear at EGNX but I wouldn't pin my hopes on the viz increasing to 5km in time for your flight. To be honest the only thing going for that forecast at EGNX is the fact that all things being equal the gusty wind forecast to clear whilst you're turning up should be straight down the runway.

As an aside - this looks to me like you have a doubt about the weather and are looking for someone to tell you it'll be fine. Top tip: don't do this.

BTW if you've made the decision not to fly - stick to it. Few weeks ago I was faced with a 2.5hr drive each way to a business meeting or a 30min flight (aircraft is based 20min drive away). Weather at this time the day before said no so made a conscious decision not to fly and binned the plog, flight plan, etc to save from temptation the next day.

The next day dawned and the weather was predictably crap - but a clearance that wasn't forecast came in the middle of my meeting which might have made it feasible. Oh well. I've never regretted not flying...

A very much overdone saying, but true nonetheless; "I'd sooner be down here wishing I was up there, than up there wishing I was down here."

A controversial view to come. Yes, you should put yourself under (some) pressure. To be clear, that is not carte blanche to say "I will go at any cost", the opposite in fact. The point is to make a considered decision based upon the information available (TAF, METAR, etc). Alternatively, as someone suggested, you will wait for that perfect day and never do anything.

If you wish to be a high time PPL (or greater), make a positive decision based upon the information available - the opinion of a Ppruner is an opinion, not information - and positive as in definite, not positive as in "must get airborne".

That decision can be validated by getting airborne if appropriate and turning back if necessary and will invariably add to your bank of experience.

By all means validate your decision with others of experience (including here) but simply remaining on the ground because the Pprunararty say you should is not a decision. Make the decision yourself.

If you want my opinion, I can let you have it but I would hope it would be irrelevant.

Edit: I notice I came to the thread a bit late. A good decision (I wouldn't have gone either - IR, instructor and 14000 hrs) but I hope it was based primarily on the information available rather than relying on Pprune posts.

When I was a low hour PPL I remember the most difficult thing was the go/nogo decision (often it still is). IMHO you must make the decision yourself, you should not really be asking us.

Having said that all that really matters is cloudbase, visibility and maybe wind, I'm sure where you trained had limits for those - start out within those limits and as you get more experience reduce them to suit what you are happy with.

Happy flying

Tobster....
Are you familiar with TAFs? I'm rather surprised that, with those TAFs anyone would be asking the question. It seems the met you obtained gave you some seriously misleading information.
If, for some reason, you haven't been tought about them I would suggest some bed time reading is in order!

First place to look is not the TAFs but the 215...............................

I always thought that as a low hours SEP PPL without IR(R) or IR, I would never plan a flight where I HAVE to be anywhere specific, by any specific time, and/or HAVE to come back to anywhere specific by any specific time on any given day.

If on the day, the weather looks good, the F214 & F215 look conducive for flight, then look at METARs and TAFs at or near departure and destination. If the journey is long enough to warrant it - also have a look at METARs and TAFs at places on route. I then also generally quantify my reasoning with any other weather sources that I can get my hands on, MetOffice, BBC, Wunderground...etc... To make a decision - if all else works - then and only then GO.

Your plan A should always be an alternative method of transportation, until such a time as you have a CPL ME IR and fly a big jet, where reliability will be as good as the airlines. With each stepping stone along the way, you'd be able to increase the likelihood of doing the flight but never be 98% sure.

Tay Cough - makes a good point about pushing your comfort zone, but this should ONLY ever be done when you don't have to be anywhere - GetThereItis is something you absolutely want to avoid at all costs.

If the weather is marginal, and the trend isn't going to block you out - you can always "give it a go" and worst case, just come back, if nothing else, its a good learning point!

When RETURN TO BASE is a good idea....
 

I had just renewed my instrument rating in Florida. Planning to attend a family reunion in Tennessee, I wanted to impress everybody by turning up at the local airstrip and giving rides to the grandchildren. I filed my flight plan the night before and got the weather.

Nobody at Albert Whitted St. Pete Tower would talk to me the next morning, they weren't out of bed yet. Unsure how to proceed, I heard another pilot on Unicom leaving Whitted, and he said I should contact Tampa Departure after liftoff. So I did, and happy under ATC control, began my journey North. IFR of course. But after a while it began to look like IFR in IMC, WHICH DID NOT AGREE AT ALL WITH THE FORECAST......!

ATC allowed me to change frequency to make enquiries of Flight Service (in those days, they had actual human beings giving the weather). Flight Service told me that there was a fast moving surprise from the Northwest that included embedded thunderstorms, tops to 35,000 feet between me and Tennessee.

I chickened out. Back at Albert Whitted, my rental car was parked, already paid for the day. Get there a bit late, drive up the interstate!

Informing ATC of my intention, he said "Yes, Ma'am, that's a very good idea. They have just issued a Sig Met for that area." So I returned the Cessna in one piece to the Albert Whitted Flying Club.

Never be afraid to change your plan. If you are PILOT In Charge, do not be influenced by other people and their expectations. You know what you and the aircraft can do....and should NOT do.

PS: A Sig Met is "a significant meterological event!" best avoided.

You probably made the right decision, but the question you posed was not really a safety question; it was a "minimums" question coupled with practicality. There is a big difference between safety and the other two. Whilst in no way condoning such behaviour I'll suggest that you can fly just on the illegal side of VFR quite safely. Not surprisingly, the further you depart from legality, the closer you become to being in a dangerous position. The legal minimums grant a reasonable amount of fat but flying illegally means you may have eroded the margins to such a point that you could be within seconds of a real problem. Inexperience means you may not appreciate how far you have strayed from VFR minimums once you start busting them. Speaking from experience I can tell you that is really unpleasant when the weather starts closing in around you. And then there is common sense and practicality aspect. You can often legally depart but later you find that the weather enroute prevents you from reaching your destination. Providing you have done your planning properly, an enroute diversion or a return to your point of departure may be your only choice; inconvenient but perfectly safe. We can see from your posts that you were in no way intending to bust the law or fly in weather below your minima, but please don't confuse safety with minimums, common sense and/or practicality. It is a shame the utility of a basic PPL is quite limiting this time of year in the U.K.

As for your decision, it can only be viewed with hindsight. What matters is that you made one based in the information available and were not tempted to give it a go when you thought you might not end up with the right outcome. For that you are to be commended.

PM

The weather later in the day was perfect! Fexibility, good planning and good judgement are key safety factors in planning any flight in a light aircraft in the UK.
However, what concerns me more is using PPrune as a forum to make this sort of decision. If your experience is such that you need flight planning advice, you need to find a well qualified and experienced mentor to help you.

Terry is absolutely correct !


If you have to ask on a forum , then don't go !

Some years ag. My father was staying with us for the weekend. He asked if we could go flying. I said, after checking the weather, it will be a bit rough but doable. It was, I think, 15kts gusting 25, not quite across the runway but forecast to lighter later in the day. So we went to the airfield and started unpacking the Rans from it's box. Another club member turned up and asked if it was OK for flying. I replied that it was good enough for me. He went, (Cessna Reims Rocket) was a bit lairy on take off and a few minutes later returned to do a scary landing. He parked up, tied down and came by us looking a bit green. He didn't speak. He got in his car and went away.

We put the Rans together, pre-flighted and then went to the Isle of Wight for lunch. In the afternoon we returned to base via tea at Old Sarum. It was a bit rough and gusty but no problem. My rule of thumb was if I could unpack the Rans and put it together without it blowing over it was within my wind range limits.

Your pucker factor may be different.

Tobster, you made the right choice.

I hate it when it's marginal (my personal marginal), I'm not experienced , 7 years since PPL gained and about 500 hours and still find myself procrastinating at times, I've learnt now, that if I can't decide one way or the other after gathering and digesting all the weather/Notam/timing info available to me and mulling it over a coffee, then I am not going.

14,000 hour airline captain and still fly lots of SEP, I would not go having had a look at that TAF.

Quite common for that background. It surprised me first, when I found that the probability a pilot is going into marginal weather conditions gets pretty low for high time professional airmen. It would be interesting to get some statistics where it peaks.

ChickenHouse, I don't think I would have flown with that TAF either. Drizzle, 300m visibility, overcast at 0ft.... Not sure many people would fly unless they had to (or were commercial / airline / private jet pilots of course) however, admittedly a little further West than Earls Colne, the weather was definitely flyable (well above my personal minima) by 9am.

is absolutely fine but:

Paints a very different picture... However, the forecasts and the actual are very often different, as I believe they were yesterday.

For what it's worth (I live about 4 miles from Leicester airport) I'd not have wanted to have been flying in around 8am yesterday. Overcast, low cloud, not nice.

One of the previous posters mentioned the EGNX TAF? I'd be wary of relying solely on that. When you've got marginal weather then you'll often find that conditions south of the Markfield VRP are completely different to those north of it :)
(I live in Leicester and learned at East Mids)

For flying to Leicester I'd be having a look at the TAFs from East Mids and Coventry, maybe even Wittering too (as well as the METFORMs etc.), building up a picture of the area and making a judgement from there.