Fatal accidents
 

Can someone convince me flying is still safe?
Look at the daily fatal accidents in the US:
Preliminary Accident and Incident Reports

It's not to us, it's up to you.

I am well trained and fly a well maintained aircraft. I consider it as safe as any other hobby, or mode of transportation.

Do you drive a car?

Gotta agree with Shunter. I drive a motorbike, and if I only took up pastimes that I had been convinced were safe, I'd never get on the damn thing.

but yes, a combination of training, care, not trying to show off, and a balanced approach to quality of life all go into it.

If you want to know the truth, flying isn't safe, in as far as once you are more than about 10 foot off the ground, if you drop out the sky, you could be in real trouble. Of course, leaning out a window isn't safe, nor is crossing the road or eating in a restaurant. Just got to balance any risk in life with reward.

I know a chap that skis 3 or 4 times a year at least. The idea of bombing down a hill at breakneck speeds with a small plank on each foot doesn't sound safe to me, but that's because it doesn't appeal. I go sailing, and he thought it was the daftest thing ever, because if a storm hits, you can't just get off in the middle of the ocean. Fair comparison, I think! (oh yes, and we both love flying, and have motorbikes!)

The stats only give the number of incidents/fatalities. You really need to know the total number of flights each day to turn this into a percentage so you can calculate the risk of this happening to you. My estimation would be less than a fraction of 1%

More chance of winning the lottery than having an accident with an aeroplane. That is if you survive driving to the airport.

Who ever told you that private flying is safe? It's not. That's why we spend so much time thinking about what might go wrong, training for it, discussing accidents and considering how we might react, and trying to learn and better prepare ourselves.

If you think flying is safe, then get that out of your head, and start to consider how you'll mitigate the risks.

Some good starts would be:
Train for poor weather, but avoid the poor weather.
Always carry enough fuel for all contingencies, plus a bit extra.
Pay attention to your preflight.
Don't ignore something that seems/looks/sounds different than normal.
Fly as high as possible.
Always have a way out.

That should go a long way to reducing the risks to you.

Good post, dublinpilot :ok:

Kai Tak,

As appropriately stated earlier, it's not up to us. You are entitled to think whatever you like about the safety of flying. As with anything, the depth of knowledge about something, will affect the opinions a person holds about it. You are welcomed to deepen your understanding about flying, to further assure yourself, but in doing that, allow for the fact that those who are more familiar, will have a different idea of what "safe" is, and are very relaxed about it.

Is it safe to coast to a stop in an airplane, while approaching other parked, and while having very limited steering, and no brakes whatsoever? Some would say no, but it's done hundreds of times a day in floatplanes and ski planes.

Is it safe to land VFR at night, on a runway which has only reflectors, and is surrounded by trees, but with nearly no lights anywhere in sight? It's regularly done with no problems.

I could go on.....

You can interpret statistics any way you want. If you allow them to convince you that flying is not as safe as you would like it to be, then don't fly. It doesn't matter to us! The only person I'm trying to convince flying is safe, is the guy who sets the rates for my insurance! (and he seems pretty happy - it costs less to insure my plane than my car, and the plane is insured for more!)

Dublinpilot
That's a terrific mantra! It ought to be a compulsory pre-flight check! :D:D

To be truthful to the OP, how many times have we ourselves been reiterating the old "it's safer than driving a car"? That is only true for airline travel. GA aviation has about a 20-40 times worse record than traffic incidents and it's our responsibility to to not try to misinform or brush this off. It's on par with riding a motorcycle, or worse. Paul Bertorelli wrote a very good article about it couple of months ago on AvWeb:

Fatal Accidents

Is GA unsafe? No, I don't think so, but it's certainly riskier than driving a car. I'm all for making it safer, as long as it doesn't mean new burdens on pilots and students. And like he mentions, it's a balance we have to strike. It's hard enough already as it is and we don't want to make it impossible for new pilots to join this wonderful thing. In another article, I read that 46% of the fatalities are stall related. So here the work obviously continues. In a panic with a mountain or trees filling the screen, I can see that instincts and reflexes can make this one a hard thing to eliminate completely, i.e. I don't think it can be trained away fully .Perhaps a longer period of solo time before you're allowed to take passengers? Or a higher minimum age to get rid of the hot rod mentality? Or more instrument time incorporated into the basic training? I don't know, but the debate continues.

I know I have a bit of a UK-centric view of the world, but I find these figures hard to accept. I was looking at the stats recently of the number of fatalities on microlights in the UK. When you compare that to the number of microlight owners, its tiny. Certainly not anything like as dangerous as riding a bike. But then, I will happily admit I am going on anacdotal information, so someone out there know anything more?

Strangely take comfort from the accident statistics.

Controlled flight into terrain remains one of the biggest killers, as does loss of control in IMC.

Poor weather planning is up there, and so is poor maintenance.

Lack of currency is a factor.

So if you remain current, ensure the aircraft is well maintained, avoid IMC unless instrument rated and dont take liberties with the weather you have probably eliminated 80% or more of all accidents.

There are a few accidents which are almost unavoidable, but I bet you can count these on one hand over a very long period of time.

Adam, can't agree completly.

Fair enough airline travelling.

But private AG depends on the pilot. Dublinpilot sums it up. When flying yourself you are in charge and you can reduce the risks.

When driving a car, however careful you are, you are always at risk from others. And we spend more time driving than flying, unfortunately.

I agree. It can be almost eliminated by not doing the three big things: CFIT in bad weather, stalls and poor fuel management.

Yet, I also see a lot friends, good friends I trust and respect, drive cars awfully. Just basic skills lacking. They don't have the feel for it and they never will, no matter how much they drive. How can you ever get rid of that? If they're good enough, they'll pass a skills test.

I was just having a look on the CAA website, and it reckons GA fatality rates are around 10 fatalities per million hours of flying across the country. That doesn't sounds anywhere near as bad as car accidents!

"Safety is No Accident"

My father was a veteran light aircraft instructor. His advice to me was "If you're going to hit anything, make sure you're under control and the wings are level"

In other words, do not stall/spin as they are often the fatalities near the ground.

He was always keen on using the full length for take off and he was totally opposed to turning back when faced with an engine failure after take off - recall him falling out with a CFS instructor over this that came to examine the instructors at the school to teach the flying scholarship cadets (btw he passed the check!).

The other bit of advice he often said was "You're much better down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here".

Great post! :D

I believe there would be a lot less fatal motor vehicle accidents if people treated driving in the same manner they do flying.

My 2p
 

I think most people see (GA) flying as generally safe.

I am currently a PPL(A) student with a fair few hours as P2 with the old man flying microlights over the last 20 years or so. We are expecting our first child in October so the O/H was over the moon when I told her I was selling the motorbikes in order to (finally) learn to fly. Something I largely justified with the safety argument, and also it was something that we could all do together. This is in spite of several EFATOs and other such incidents in the microlights over the years.

I'll admit I haven't looked at any accident statistics comparing driving/motorbikes/flying, but certainly my family were pleased when the bikes went, and generally unconcerned with the flying lessons. I think this largely comes from the fact that one takes more responsibility for one's own safety when flying, whereas the perception of riding bikes on the road is seen as risky due mainly to other traffic*

(*this however is not the case as most bike fatalities are a single vehicle leaving the road with excessive speed - i.e running out of talent mid corner, but people like to blame traffic/diesel/mud etc. and such is the perception.)

I am a professional yachtsman, which in itself carries a small risk, but this barely registers any more after 12 years, yet I have seen more injuries at sea - some very serious, than at any time flying or riding bikes.

As with many things in life, the perception is often at odds with the reality.

Brilliant. I've taken the liberty of printing that if you don't mind and sticking it in the top of my flight bag so I see it every time I open it. I've also added 'QDM and 121.5 are there to be used.'

In pure statistical terms GA flying is around the motorcycle level of fatalities for time at risk. That makes it appreciably more dangerous than driving to the airfield.

Does it make it acceptable or unacceptably dangerous? All depends upon your perceptions of the risk. The posts above show how people have come to their decisions. In my case I look at young people on motorcycles and realise we have a plentiful source of organ donors ;). But using similar thinking to that above I regard my flying as 'safe enough'.

Of course if you asked those young people they would say the same of their motorcycling!

Part of the problem is that people do not fully appreciate the risks of GA. It is not as safe as airline flying, and final approaches can rapidly change from thinking about whether to get a coffee on the way home to near disaster.

There is no pause button in flying, and I think that there is actually a fair amount of complacency amongst certain individuals, but they'd probably say I was too cautious!

well... although I am not a motorcycle rider, I am a firefighter. I have my own micro statistical snapshot.

We help up fallen motorcyclists and pilots. Two things are different: the pilots walk away more often, because they had some structure around to protect them, and the pilots generally seem to have more been the cause of their own difficulty, rather than being a victim of circumstance (other motorists doing unanticipated things).

Motorcyclists seem to become victim of factors, which they cannot control, and perhaps could not plan early enough to compensate for.

Pilots, on the other hand, seem to come to grief more as a result of their own decision making. Of the 20 or so plane crashes I have attended, 4 were fatal. All were spin in's from close to the ground. Two were very good friends, one horsing around at low altitude (a STOL kit would have compensated his foolishness, and saved his life), and the other a turnback following EFATO. He was a 20,000+ hour pilot, who tried for the airport behind him, rather than the shallow lake ahead. He nearly made it. The other two were very poorly conducted training for EFATO.

Of my four engine failures in flight, two were EFATO. In all cases, I was lucky enough not only to land mostly ahead, but to do so in a place from which a takeoff was possible following rectification.

I have not said that there is not luck involved in piloting!

So from that, I take it that proficiency, and good flying practice/discipline go a long way to keeping flying safe for PPL's

Yes but that is completely misleading because (as an ex biker myself) the majority of motorcycle accidents are and always have been caused by a car driver.

Often he drives off, sometimes unaware that he caused an accident.

Whereas GA safety is 99.x% down to the pilot and the aircraft. If you fly carefully, with diligent preparation, stick to good go/no-go rules, and the plane is maintained properly (which is not at all the same thing as legally) then flying is much safer than riding a motorbike, especially these days with the roads being populated by so many drivers who are either half blind or extremely aggressive.

so Silverair 2 options
Your safe pilot has an inapropriate gauge?

or

He's pushing/pulling too hard

or posibly (number 3)

Faking it

and to the OP, no its not safe. Breathing is dangerouse, you might breath in some germs that ight kill you. Don't give up flying or breathing.

Interestingly, while renewing my car insurance just now, I saw a different statistical basis for flying safety:

My records of driving and flying are both the best the insurers consider, for setting ratings. My 2009 VW diesel Jetta wagon is in the next to safest rate class (better than VW Jetta sedan, or Golf apparently!). It's insured value is about 3/4 of the insured value of my 1975 C 150M. I fly and drive these two nearly equal amounts each year. (My rating for "distance to work" is very favourable).

The insurance premium is more costly on the car than the plane, per value insured, both hull and liability. That means to me that the insurers must think that the risk of a claim is greater for the car than the plane. They obviously think flying my plane is a safer thing for me to do than driving my car. It's just statistics!

Flying is safe-its just pilots that are dangerous.

Not exactly straight and level stuff... but it makes you think doesn't it?

AE, those are the odds I'm banking on; both of them.

KT, it's not safe, life isn't safe. Someone much smarter than I am once said that we take (calculated) risks not to escape life but to stop life escaping us.

Your choice, pally.

I remember on my first ever flight in a light GA looking down at some hefty tyres which I know would do serious damage if dropped from ten feet onto someones head and seeing that tyre lifting skywards as the aircraft climbed.
We are not meant to defy gravity gravity defies us.
How many people are paralysed through falling off horses every year or off ladders fixing the house.
If we had a world which had no weather cavok, clear skies and no winds and could stop an aircraft stalling or flying into another flying would be extremely safe.
Bring in the weather, the winds, fog, shear etc and this becomes our enemy.
It then holds that if we can fly in cloud safely as out of cloud and the aircraft is equipt to deal with all that clouds hold including ice flying becomes very safe.
Obviously we still have other factors of weather like thunderstorms, and strong winds.
The airlines are well equipt and their pilots well trained but the light GA is not.
Flown on good weather days the light GAs are very safe but put an underpowered light GA out of its design element to deal with weather its pilots are not trained or experienced to deal with and the airframe is not designed to handle and there lies the problem for heavy accident stats in light GA.

From the list and probably the best bit of advice! Never do anything in aviation where there are no options other than the one you are taking as that then becomes a game of russian roulette.
Always fly within your and the aircrafts limit as either you or the aircraft out of those limits is asking for trouble! Above all know what those limits are as many dont.
Contrary to the above is a saying I love which can be read two ways.
" unless you push the boundaries of your limits you will never know what lies beyond" Ie you either survive and become a much more experienced pilot or sadly for some end up as a statistic.

Pace

In my experience it's not that aircraft are unsafe, but what people try to do with them can be.

I watched the Youtube link above of the man falling to his death whilst trying to climb from a biplane wing to a formating helicopter.

One sarcastic but to the point comment from "pilotmanfisher" took my eye and it illustrates my point exactly:

Nothing in life is without risk, so the question as posed is not very useful.:ugh:

A better question "Is flying safer than x?"

If x = being seated in an armchair, answer equals NO

If x = mountaineering in winter then answer equals YES (probably)

What a bunch of candyasses...

I miss the days when " Flying was dangerous and sex was safe."

I ride a 1000 cc sports bike every day in HK traffic. It goes faster than the Cessna I fly when I find time to unleash it.

It is as safe as I choose it to be...just like my flying.

I'm fed up with candyasses who blame stats for their inability to perform with adequacy.

PIC means just that. If you are unable or unwilling to take responsibility up there or down here, don't :mad: bother.

Stick to posing and answering dumb fear issues on a GA forum.

Man up people!

What an angry little person you are! :)

Subsonicscubic

Just had a wander through your previous posts?? As a fairly recent 172 driver I am sure you have all the experience in the world to make your comments.

I really hope you dont end up as another statistic yourself.

For myself I have lost 5 friends to flying and could have equally joined them on 5 occasions that spring to mind of my own making.

The difference? someone was looking down on me.

" unless you push the limits you will never know what lies beyond". But in pushing those limits as far as aviation goes you will either survive or perish.

If you survive you will probably become an experienced pilot who has learnt from his/her mistakes or you end up as my friends.

Far safer to fly within your limits and the aircraft limits and to know those limits.

pace

Lots of motorcycles go faster than some Cessnas. I'd rather be in the Cessna though - you can pull up!

I take it that while you're "unleashing" your 1000CC crotch rocket, you imagine you can find a place in Hong Kong, which is long and straight enough, and unoccupied enough, to safely get going faster than a Cessna? I'm not sure that Hong Kong even has enough airspace for a Cessna to go faster than a Cessna, much less a road that would enable that to be done safely on the ground!

There are roads where it can be done in the New Territories, done it myself on a big bike. Not many people there but you do have to watch out for wandering cattle, though.

People have evolved to withstand falls on the level and collisions at running speed. If you want to go faster / higher than that you must be able to assess risk and control it to an acceptable level.

Trouble is that most people can't assess risk accurately and resort to all sorts of approaches which make them feel safe (including for example lucky pebbles).

So assess the risk of flying (and anything else for that matter) then either accept it or don't do it.

It was understanding and accepting the risks that got man to the moon. Safety is an enabler and if it is ever not an enabler then it is a weak excuse for something else like fear of litigation or cost avoidance.

2hotwot

Fine but here lies the big question? You can climb a cliff face without ropes!
You take that risk. If you fall and die you hurt no one but yourself. Your choice.

Flying is different! Your PAX? Do you have a right to assess that risk on behalf of others especially when those others are not aviation knowlegable?

Should a newbie pilot with a green licence inform his passenger that he is new and inexperienced before taking that passenger for a flight thus giving them the chance not to take the flight.

The PPL flying PAX in bad weather? Should he explain the risks of flying a light single prop without deice anti ice and without back up systems to his un knowing passengers before the flight or does he have the right to assess the risk and make decisions for them?

What you do with your own life is one thing what you do with others is another matter?

Pace

That is just ridiculous.

It's a FOD risk.

That's why I keep my lucky coin on a key ring.

;)