How safe is flying?
 

Im cracking on with my PPL and enjoying it very much.

It seems just about every other day there are threads or AAIB reports or news items about accidents involving small planes, which does concern me somewhat.

I just wonder what the correct statistics are compared to say my other hobby of riding high perfomrance road bikes...

Liam

Flying is as safe as you make it. These accidents we all hear off are mostly pilot induced by poor decision making and cockpit management, not all but most!

Some people you see flying does totally worry you but you need to ensure that you prepare yourself before every flight and ensure you have checked all the details, met, NOTAMS weight and balance etc.

You need to be thinking ahead of the aircraft and always be looking around you for that forced landing site other aircraft etc ( plus enjoying the view!! :p, it will become second nature after a while!

Above all enjoy it do all your planning and your be fine!!

Best of luck! :ok:

Let me ask you a counterquestion. Is there an equivalent to an AAIB report for every motorcycle incident/accident/fatality?

The aviation industry is very safety conscious, because flying is potentially a very dangerous activity for us human beings. How safely you will fly depends to a large extent in how well you're going to abide by the rules, regulations, best practices, recommendations from the AAIB and everything else that we have now because other people lost their lives.

Usually when people ask me if flying is safe I tell them that I feel safer seating at the controls of a small airplane than driving on the highway to my local airfield.

Compared to riding sports bikes I feel safer flying everytime.

(BRL Ducati Rider).....

Last year there were nearly a quarter of a million casualties in road accidents in the UK. Just over 1% of them were killed (2,946).

That is the equivalent of a jumbo load of people crashing every six weeks. Not worldwide, but just in the UK. Does that put it in perspective for you?

Source

Blimey!:ooh:

The stats speak for themselves.

Something like 1 fatality in 100,000 flight hours.

So.....if you fly 100 hours per year, then in 1000 years you'll be dead from flying!

Of course people win the lottery too....:O

Ah, but englishal; that fatality could always be in your first hour out of the 100,000 ;)

To be realistic, not very safe at all when compared to commercial aviation.

But hey, we all die at some point or another :}

To attempt a comparison with roads:

The 2,946 road deaths come in about 6,000 million hours driving. (I've guessed 30 million drivers averaging 200 hours a year at the wheel; that ignores passenger hours.)

If that's right, it means 1 fatality in 2 million driving hours, so 20 times safer than private flying.

Do you know what, I asked the same question a long time ago when I started flying.

Here is what I have discovered since.

You will often read flying is safer than driving or other similar comparisons. Well forget these. As with all statistics unless you understand how they are calculated, they are worthless. More over there has been plenty of debate on here which would lead you to conclude that if you do the stats on any reasonable basis flying light aircraft is probably more dangerous than driving.

I think a far more rational approach is to consider where the risks lie and what you can do to minimise them.

Here are some of the most common reasons for fatal accidents involving light aircraft:

1. Controlled flight into terrain,
2. Stall, spin, loss of control,
3. Instrument approach accidents,
4. Mechanical failure,
5. Structural failure,
6. Collision

Of course to varying degrees these reasons may be inter-related. An engine failure (4) may in itself not be catastrophic unless combined with 2.

However, if you read the accident reports the vast majority of accidents are avoidable. For example, if you are properly trained and current, there is no reason to lose control, or to fly into the side of a hill. These are both examples of perfectly serviceable and functioning aircraft killing their pilots and together account for the vast majority of fatal accidents. In fact if you eliminate all the accidents caused by pilot error there are very few left. Even some of those result in an avoidable loss of life. For example, if a pilot maintains control of the aircraft the evidence all points towards a successful and survivable ditching. However most do not survive because of hypothermia. Once again, depending on how risk averse you are, simple precautions like wearing a dry suite, and carrying a raft reduce this risk significantly.

So if you are confident that you will maintain sound currency, will be proficient, avoid taking risks and flying outside your envelope, partake in regular recurrent training etc., the vast majority of these risks can be eliminated.

You are left with a few more difficult to deal with. Here they are:

1. Engine failure immediately after take off,
2. Structural failure
3. Collision
4. Forced landing over poor terrain.

Well arguably even some of these are avoidable. With any luck and engine failure after take off IF you maintain control is survivable. You could decide to avoid ever flying over terrain that doesn’t present any forced landing sites. Given that I have experienced poor engineers, using engineers with a good reputation can also be a factor.

So in a perfect world you are left with very few situations which you can do little about – and come down to being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Certainly structural failure falls into this category; arguably so does collision (although IMHO flying with some form of CAS helps mitigate the risk).

In the perfect world the risk is therefore very small and perhaps a great deal smaller than motoring where so many of the accidents are the results of the actions of some other idiot over which you have very little control.

It’s for these reason I caution you to ignore the statistics – flying is as safe as you wish to make it. Push the envelope, fly beyond your ability, become complacent or rusty and it is the most unforgiving of pastimes.

Some reasons behind these reasons:

Continuing VFR into IFR conditions.
Alcohol/drug abuse.
Maneuvering at low altitude.
Get home-itis.
poor fuel management.
ice
complacency

Students are amongst the safest pilots. Most dangerous are those who have just got their PPL.

Interesting question
 

CAVOK, well maintained aircraft, fuel to tabs, brimble to an airfield half an hour away that you can visually see after take off, well that's incredibly safe.

Awful visibility\mist\haze\fog, low level thunder clouds, not flown for a few months and not instrument rated = almost certain death

As a pilot you analyse the situation, look at where between those poles you are and then make your decision to fly based on that. As others have said, aircraft have been flying so long now that design issues have been fixed so very rarely does the aircraft fail, it's almost always the pilot. The reason you die is because you where closer to the "thunder storm" pole than the 1st.

To put it into some context. I fly, in fact I love flying and fly over water and abroad. On the other hand, I wouldn't ride a motorcycle (apart from my 50cc) on the road.

Jeremy Pratt in "Beyond the PPL" suggests having a personal minima and if the weather is outside these limits then it's an automatic "no".

Really?

That sounds awfully complacement to me.

When I did some training in the US (helicopter), it was emphasised that 2/3 of fatal helicopter accidents involve one or more of:

- poor weather
- night
- flying below 500ft agl (outside take-off/landing)

Since avoidance of these are all within the pilot's control, the thrust of the safety briefing was that by simply avoiding these three aeas, you can keep yourself out of 2/3 of fatal accidents.

BW

Usual answer:

In raw figures, you can choose statistics that say that flying little aeroplanes is about as dangerous as riding motorbikes (ie lots more dangerous than driving cars).

However as others have said most motorcyclists are killed by other people, whereas most pilots kill themselves.

So you can cheat. You can read the accident reports, and choose not to kill yourself in many of the favourite ways.

Thus making your odds better than those of a motorcyclist.

I fly. I gave away my motorbike years ago because driving it around amongst all those people who were out to kill me just got too frightening.

Safety in aviation is like the manual safety on a firearm. It's not found in the airplane, or on the gun. It's in you; it's your mind, your thought process, your judgement, and your discipline.

No law prohibits acting conservatively, and the ability to say no is an excellent safeguard against misbehavior and misfortune in the business.

Liam, I think if you are already thinking of safety, that is great.
There are many good posts here with good advice.

Things I was told early on that have stood me in good stead:-
It is always better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.

There is no such thing as a stupid question - if you want to know something, ask. Never assume or guess. Take time to find out.

The most useless things in aviation are the air in your fuel tanks and the runway behind you when you line up.

My own thoughts:-
Always take time to prepare and always be prepared to make the decision to go home. If in doubt ALWAYS err on the side of safety. Always consider your options carefully.

If you are a consicentious, thinking pilot you will have alleviated most of the risks.

And those accident reports - it is well worth reading them as it will give you the knowledge to avoid making the same mistake yourself. In fact, I would recommend reading them and then considering what you might have done differently, if you had been in the same situation. Airlines regularly publish pilots incident reports to the rest of the crews, even minor stuff, for this reason. You can also go read books, read around the subject, ask on here (although these days there are lots of "armchair" pilots on pprune, so try to make sure they actually have a licence if you are going to take their advice!!!!).

If you ever find yourself rushing, not in the right frame of mind, or worried about something, don't go flying.

And remember - flying IS meant to be fun!

G EMMA you started getting me all turned on with your ST1100, but 660lbs of pure throbbing tourer was just too reminiscent of me on my own bike....:rolleyes:

Safety is enhanced by carefully planning every part of any flight before you get into the airplane.....it is a state of mind.

Having flown fifty five years accident free in almost every device known to man I credit a lot of the reason for this to having learned when to say no early in my career.

The most difficult thing about flying is knowing when to say no.

Flying is very safe. Crashing, on the other hand, tends to spoil your day.

On a more serious note, last saturday I took someone flying who had never been in an SEP before. Once we were airborne and he'd realised how calm he was, he asked the inevitable question; 'what would you do if the engine stopped & how long before we hit the ground?'

He was a touch surprised when I rattled off the engine failure in flight actions as I don't think he realised that it was something we train for. And he was even more surprised when I said that from 2000' feet we'd probably have more than 2 minutes to get ready to an emergency landing.

But what made him really think was when I turned the question round- if the engine stopped in your car - how long would it that for you to realise the engine had stopped, and how would you cope with no power steering none power-assisted brakes?

I ask "what makes it fly then?"

If they answer "the engine" I ask what makes gliders fly.

Eventually they work out that it's "the wings".

I then throttle down to idle and show them we're still flying.

Flying is extremely safe.....crashing is the dangerous bit.

Remember a few important points:
Everybody is fully qualified to have an accident. The more qualifications and experience you have the greater the variety of ways you have available to make a mistake.
If you crash, do it as slowly and gently as possible whilst staying in control.
For landing accidents, it's better to hit the far hedge slowly then the near hedge quickly

The 'risk' in sport aviation is probably about 20 times greater than that of other forms of transport. To be honest, the actual relative number is irrelevant...whether it's 20 or 200. The trick is to be aware that you're operating in a potentially higher risk environment and have the mindset to deal with it. Keep within your own, and your equipments, limits. The old adage about a superior pilot being the one who uses his superior judgement to avoid needing to use his superior skills springs to mind.

Oh, and have fun!

Hi Liam-

This has been a very interesting thread.
I am in my early fifties and seriously started flying little planes and riding motorbikes when I was 17.

I have a slight limp... this is as a result of my interest in motorbikes... by the way I am an approved Driving Standards Agency instructor on these infernal things.

So far, except for one or two "I really don't want to do that again" moments I have enjoyed a clean sheet with regards to little planes (and I have flown a lot of them).

My advice must be to listen to the experienced guys around you (excepting the bar room know-alls) and don't push the outside of the envelope too much and too regularly unless of course you like dancing with fate.

R

Are "little planes" the same as light aircraft?

The little planes I fly are - as a distinction from the big planes which tend to have jet engines attached and lots of noisy passengers in the back.....

Do you work for the sun at all ? If not, with that ability to misquote you should definately be working there.

The statement was, flying in CAVOK is incredibly safe compared to flying in thunderstorms. Only a fool would disagree with that, but this being pprune.......

I wish that were true on pprune!

"If you ever find yourself rushing, not in the right frame of mind, or worried about something, don't go flying. "
Airbus girl

For me,that is probably some of the best advice given on here.

Another thing,I don't like people messing around me when I'm doing the walk around checks,I find doing the checks quietly gets me in the right frame of mind for flying,but we're all different!

Lister:)

Take that paragraph out on it's own, yes, but it's important that it's paired with the other paragraph that followed it. I.e.

"McDonalds is responsible for obesity in this country and also for deforestation around the world to make room for cattle farms"

"Turn to any newspaper and the above is an idea you'll often see printed"

Take that 1st paragraph and you get a very skewed view of what the piece in it's entirety is saying. I still stand by what I posted. Flying in CAVOK, for a short period of time, is incredibly safe when compared to flying in thunderstorms.

The interesting question though is, is flying safer than other hobbies and interests ? I am curious to know if it's more dangerous than motorcycle riding. My gut feeling is it's less dangerous, but not being a health and safety bod, or somebody that works for insurance and looks at the risks involved I don't know.

No.

You set "bimbling" on a VFR day as an absolute end of the scale, as being "incredibly safe."

I don't agree with you, flying light aircraft is not "incredibly safe."

Insult me as much as you wish, I just quoted your sentence and the following sentence has no relevance in this context.

I agree :rolleyes: Flying is very dangerous :ouch: and should be banned :ugh:
We can all take up knitting :E

Flying = not incredibly safe is not = to flying is very dangerous and should be banned.

Anybody who believes this is a half wit and should not command an aircraft, due to lack of judgement :ugh:

A while back .. 15 -20 years ? .. 'Pilot' magazine investigated this topic and the conclusion IIRC was that private flying is statistically about as dangerous as motorcycle racing. Dunno whether this reassures or not. Probably not.

Another way of looking at it was that it about doubles the chance of dying from all causes if you are aged 50+. Again IIRC. Put another way, at 50+ your chance of popping your clogs from all causes is beginning to climb. So if you are 50+ (like me) the additional risk of flying is merely a relatively smaller and smaller additional risk to add to all the others as time passes !

However, if you are below the age of 25 and, by definition, probably still regard yourself as immortal, you are assuming a much bigger (relative) risk than me !

Caveat aviator.

SI

Paul, having spent a bit of time working as a consultant to publishers a while ago, Sun journo = reptile to me :}

Thanks for clarifying, no offence taken.

PS: I once did fly into a CB in a PA28. My mitigation is that I was P u/t, but I would absolutely not recommend it as an experience, it was one of the most frightening things I have ever endured, even though it only lasted for a few minutes.

What I think I was trying to point out earlier was that I have been around light aviation (little planes) for 30 odd years and I'm still here. I've also been around high performance motorbikes for the same time period and I'm still here... although they have bit me.

So... my personal experience tells me motrobikes are slightly more risky than little planes, but neither need to be toooooo risky unless you really want them too be.

PS... I also fly toy planes as well as little planes! :)

Thanks for the replies, some interesting reading, especially after all the recent accidents.

I enjoy flying a great deal but at 25 still want to live!

I originally posted as it seems the ratio of accidents to flights seems high, but it probably isnt. I attend fatal RTCs at work and they never get a mention on the news whereas a plane crashing is forced to make at least regional news.

I suppose I do not know how many small GA flights are taking place over a weekend so not a lot to compare it with even though it is obvious there are millions of cars on the road at any one time...

Liam

Flying is still the safest way of travel worldwide. :E