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Why most PPLs are not confident pilots - and probably shouldn't be!

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Why most PPLs are not confident pilots - and probably shouldn't be!

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Old 16th Feb 2003, 13:51
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The Original Whirly
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Why most PPLs are not confident pilots - and probably shouldn't be!

Flying and driving are not exactly alike, but mainly because flying is more difficult. However, let's assume for the moment that they are.

The average driver drives about 12,000 miles per year. In town he/she may average less than 5 mph, on the motorway more than 60. However, I find on a long cross-country drive that I average about 40mph. Therefore 12,000 miles probably equates to around 300 driving hours.

Now, let's compare that to private flying. Do ANY PPLs do 300 hours in a year? Probhably not. 100 hours is a lot, and that equates to 4000 driving miles. Most private pilots probably do around 50, ie like 2000 driving miles. Now, would you expect a driver who'd had his/her licence for 2-3 years, and only driven 6000 miles, to be either confident or competent? How long does it take to be a really confident and competent driver? I'd guess at 5 years, at least. That's equivalent to 1500 flying hours, which would take the average PPL 30 years!!!!

Then of course there are different conditions. Even after many years of driving, I used to find it difficult driving in London, since I lived in the country - London driving gave me a headache and left me tense and drained. Yet we expect small airfield trained PPLs to cope with full ATC and controlled airspace after one or two trips. Conversely, I recently accompanied a "low hours driver" who was only used to town driving, around the lanes near my home. Think of steeper than one-in-4 hills, sheer drops, sharp corners on hills, one track roads with no passing places. She was plain scared. She had never driven in such conditions. Yet a South-East PPL will plan a flying trip to Caernarfon....

It was many years before I went on a skid training course - and it taught me a lot. I've yet to drive on the continent, and I find the idea mildly daunting. Yet I've flown there, and admitted to being scared. And new PPLs ask about trips to France, and wonder if it's too much too soon.

I could go on, but you get the point. Is it any wonder that so many of us are nervous before going flying? We should be!!!! If we're not, should we perhaps ask ourselves if we're not like the 17 year old, just-passed-his-test driver, who thinks he's good, yet in reality knows so little? It'll be years before we strap on an aircraft the way many of us strap on a car, before flying becomes instinctive, before it takes very very little to overload us. So maybe we should be recognising this, and seeing it as a starting point. Because a problem has to be recognised before it can be solved.

"He who knows not, and knows not that he knows not, is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not, and knows that he knows not, is a child - teach him.
He who knows, and knows not that he knows, is asleep - wake him.
He who knows, and knows that he knows, is a sage - follow him"

Not completely relevant, but it came to mind anyway.
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 15:02
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The funny thing about the driving annolagy is that since I learned to fly, I now drive slightly differently and scan the instruments in the car a lot more and keep an eye on the t's & p's a lot more, at least I now never come close to running out pf petrol!
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 15:48
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rotorboater, I do the same thing! Somehow I think that scanning my dials and mirrors makes up for not flying that day :-)

Back to the thread:

Lets not become confused here: there is a difference in confidence and ability. People will spend longer in their cars, this does not equate to ability in any way. Bad habits and complacency spring to mind. I don't personally feel nervous when I drive - perhaps I should?

In terms of flying the reverse is true - if I don't feel nervous then something is wrong, I've forgotten or haven’t considered something. There should be x amount of things to have your mind on when flying, and the nerves beforehand are simply due to the "unknown" factor i.e. "Have I really considered everything I should have?". The day I stop thinking this is the day when I will forget something with possibly terrible consequences.

Here is a question for people - When you open the throttle on take-off, does your stomach turn over? even just a little?

I know mine does, especially so because of the short strip I fly out of. Have I done my weight and balance correctly? What about density altitude? Were my take off calculations correct? Of course, I know they are because I checked and triple checked beforehand, but this feeling of insecurity heightens my awareness so if anything were to go wrong I am feeling the right amount of stress to make me cope effectively.

should we perhaps ask ourselves if we're not like the 17 year old, just-passed-his-test driver, who thinks he's good, yet in reality knows so little?
PPL's with low hours (like me) will lack the experience, but they have to gain it from somewhere. Provided they have done everything beforehand and they don't take risks then why not fly to Caernarfon? Travelling is what they have trained for isn’t it? Everyone will feel fear at some point - I do and actually find it exhilarating. Not always - there have been occasions when my arse hole started playing up!

Like most things in flying it’s down to common sense.

Bodie
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 15:52
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A thought provoking line of enquiry Whirly.

Is being a good driver easier than being a good flyer? I suspect the answer is that there is probably not much in it. I would imagine that most Police drivers would be well above average flyers.

OK, so cars don't suddenly fall out of the sky if you get something wrong. But to be in complete control, pre-empt the intentions of the drivers around you, know who is behind you, know what type of surface you are on, see junctions before you are on them, position yourself on the road for maximum visibility and have the general sense of who knows you are there; is a considerable workload. I don't know about you lot, but I cannot hold a conversation and drive as well as I would like at the same time.

Flying requires a different level of concentration with more multi-tasking where each task does no generally require complete concentration at any one time. Hard but not by much - methinks.

To get to your main point Whirly; agreed, the average amount of time that PPLers fly does not seem conducive to complete competence. However, as difficult as ATC situations can be, it is more intimidation than incompetence that causes hiccups, after all one is being guided to a greater extent. These tricky situations, I imagine, generally manifest themselves at the begining and the end of flights rather than being en-route issues.

I have been rambling so much I have lost track of where this is going! I guess it is that generally it is difficult to get enough time to be truly competent but overall, complete mastery of both disciplines is not relatively easy from either perspective.
 
Old 16th Feb 2003, 17:51
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Driving and flying are quite different, the only common factors being planes and cars have motors and you have to be grown up to get the licence for either.

Car driving requires little if any knowledge of the mechanics and dynamics of the machine, let alone the aerodynamics.

Weather conditions are of very little concern for the car driver in the UK for 90% of the days in a year.

Navigational errors in a car can be corrected by stopping and asking the way.

Arriving and parking in a crosswind has to my knowledge never been a problem.

Weight and balance is pretty irrelevent, even if indulging in cramming the maximum number of students into a mini.

Running out of fuel merely involves a long walk, perhaps in the rain.

Conflicting traffic is restricted to directly ahead or behind, or from the approaching side road, always reasonably well defined.

Difficult to exceed the structural limits of a car.

The only radio you have to operate is radio 2 or the CD player.

Driving is conducted on a well defined two dimensional plane.

It could go on and on and on.

Piloting requires you try to be disciplined from the moment you think about a flight, and make many judgements about all the above and more, relating them to your qualifications, legal sign ups, experience and recency and personal well being.

In running through all these thought and decision processes it should not be considered to be a lack of confidence, more a process after which you will be confident you have made the correct decision on whether to go or not.
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 17:52
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In general it seems reasonable suggest that flying is harder than driving but...

Plenty of drivers have only had 10 or fewer hours of instruction, compared with a definite minimum of 45 for the pilot, not to mention the theory exams and an RT test. PPL Pilots tend to fly as a hobby, so they read quite a bit around the subject - how many people read about driving technique? (Car magazines are about cars, not driving.)
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 19:17
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Whirly,

Anxiety is at epidemic proportions in our society and over-anxiety is often seen among pilots. It's a horrible, debilitating disease, a symptom of modern times. Don't stoke it even more.

If you're not reasonably confident of what you're doing, you probably shouldn't be flying. Many PPLs are confident and justifiably so, I think.

QDM
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 20:19
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Whirly

"He who knows not, and knows not that he knows not, is a fool - shun him.
He who knows not, and knows that he knows not, is a child - teach him.
He who knows, and knows not that he knows, is asleep - wake him.
He who knows, and knows that he knows, is a sage - follow him"

I prefer Maslow's four levels of competence ....

Unconscious Incompetence
Conscious Incompetence
Conscious Competence
Unconscious Competence

It's therefore entirely possible for a 20 000 hr ATPL to be as dangerous as a rookie.

I prefer to think that we all have an envelope in which we can operate safely and that a PPL can be just as safe as an ATPL, but only if they stay well within their envelope.

Oh - I also think that flying is as close to driving as sex is to love!
 
Old 16th Feb 2003, 21:27
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I've forgotten where I read this, though I believe it was FAA material on the FAA website.

I recall seeing a chart with a curve, that showed the accident rates of new pilots based on the number of hours flown. The left vertical axis had a scale of the number of accidents per 100,000 hours. The bottom horizontal axis had a scale of total hours flown by the pilots in the study. The curve went down from the upper left (low hours-high accident rates) towards the lower right (higher hours - lower accident rates), finally reaching a flat line of a low stabilized accident rate (I can't remember that rate now) at around 800 hours. As I remember, the curve was fairly flat from 600 to 800 hours, but was quite steep prior to 600 hours.

What my mind remembers most about the chart, was that a new pilot had to reach the 600 to 800 hour mark, before he/she could consider themselves experienced enough to be truely skilled and safe pilots. Prior to at least 600 hours, a lot of diligence is required on the part of the pilot, to make sure you stay within you'll level of competence to remain safe, while still developing and learning new skills. Even after learning new skills, you still have to gain enough experience using those skills, for them to become automatic and second nature to you.
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 21:34
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Whirly,

I think your comparison is a bit crooked.

It will take about 3 hours of tuition to teach all but the most adept youngster to safely handle a car in a protected environment (training ground)

The rest of the 20 or 30 odd lessons that they need on average is needed to teach them how to cope with the rest of the traffic etc.

After that it takes a lot more time (as you state) before they can cope with the rest of the challenges of today's traffic.

I think that after the minimum syllabus of 45 hours most PPLs can safely cope with 80 percent of situations that they would encounter at any point in their career.

What would you prefer, just as a yardstick, go to France with a 5*45 hr average PPL aged 18 in a 172 or a similar experienced driver (hour wise).

FD
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 22:17
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Perhaps one should actually be looking at the standard of training and how that has changed over the last thirty years or so.

Your older private pilots may not feel at home in the modern, busier aerodrome environment but their handling is probably of a higher standard than typically achieved of a more recently trained pilot.

This is probably due to two main factors.
1) The aircraft used for training are very easy to fly and do not exhibit many of those undesirable qualities such as adverse yaw, enthusiastic spin entry, ground loops.
2) The instructors are building hours to improve their own job prospects and have limited experience themselves.

How, otherwise, can you explain the number of stall/spin accidents?

This is THE FUNDAMENTAL RULE in flying an aeroplane.
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Old 16th Feb 2003, 22:19
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What my mind remembers most about the chart, was that a new pilot had to reach the 600 to 800 hour mark, before he/she could consider themselves experienced enough to be truely skilled and safe pilots.
Yeah, and I bet it is 600hrs/qtr not 600hrs gained over twelve years!
 
Old 17th Feb 2003, 00:04
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Most pilots of my acquaintance are appalling drivers

Come to think of it, so are most drivers

Stick to flying - it's far safer - and a lot more fun

Rattus

Whirly - loved the "He who knows... etc" - may I pinch it?
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Old 17th Feb 2003, 09:44
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Very interesting argument. My gut feeling is to try to say you're wrong, Whirly, as others have, but I wonder if I'm just trying to defend something from an emotional point of view while refusing to look at the figures you've given?

However, I really don't believe that you can compare the two quite as simplisticly as you have. Most people don't drive for recreation, they spend very little time thinking about or reading about driving when they're not doing it, and very little time practicing it unless they have to.

Compare this to flying. The Private Flying forum is one of the busiest on PPRuNe, and probably the one where we actually talk about flying (rather than pay+conditions, or industry take-overs, or how to pass exams) the most. We fly because we love to fly - we love talking about flying, we think about flying when we're on the bus (or driving down the motorway for that matter ) and we make time in our busy week to go flying when there's really no need to. When we get to the airfield, we will spend an hour or two doing circuits, or stalls (how many qualified drivers will spend even 10 minutes practicing reversing round a corner, or emergency stops?)

Without looking at accident figures, I don't think it's possible to say whether flying or driving is safer based solely on the amount of time we spend doing it. It's just not that simple.

FFF
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Old 17th Feb 2003, 10:37
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>>>Here is a question for people - When you open the throttle on take-off, does your stomach turn over? even just a little?

YES!

When I first started it was fear of the unknown. Now it is fear of the unknown, somewhat reduced due to 750 hours experience, plus hope the engine does not fail again! On balance I am probably more nervous after 750 hours than I was after 150 because I have a much better idea of all the things that have nearly gone wrong in the past.

Being scared helps keep you alive.

Rod
 
Old 17th Feb 2003, 12:29
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What utter rubbish Whirly. With an attitude like that, how do you ever take off? If I didn't have confidence in my ability I would never leave the ground! If driving in London gives you a headache, how do you ever cope with flying? If anyone is scared while flying then they either require further training, or are unable to cope with the stress and should stop. I suspect (& hope) however that you are overstating the issue. As has been already stated, pilots are trained to a much higher standard than drivers. As stated above, it takes only a few hours to teach someone how to control a car safely, the rest is learning to survive the roads. Many people go solo with 10 or less hours of flying, the balance is learning to survive.

Being nervous however is another story. Anyone who isn't slightly nervous at take off (in particular) doesn't appreciate what they're doing. If you don't run through the "what if the engine fails at 50 feet" type scenarios every time then you will end up a smoking hole in the ground when it happens, becase you will be too busy being surprised to save your own neck.

A little nerves is good, and keeps you focused. Being scared will reduce your ability to cope with the unexpected, and that's what can kill you.
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Old 17th Feb 2003, 12:36
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So is this a rational feeling, or is it irrational?

Went through a sort of crisis of confidence a couple of years ago - improved by sharing flying with a couple of others for a while. Thinking about it a bit, the fears were (are still) a thick layer of over-active imagination spread over a thin but well informed foundation of fact.

e.g.
I have spent many hours gazing at aeroplanes flying over and around me, but (fortunately) I've never seen one fall out of the sky, never seen one start trailing oily smoke or shed bits and pieces, or whatever.

I have spent many hours driving, and I have seen or happened upon some very unpleasant events (none of my doing so far).

I ought to be much more concerned about driving.

e.g.
Additionally (only try this at home) imagine closing your eyes for 5 seconds at any time while flying and now compare this with closing your eyes while driving and tell me which is the more dangerous activity.

This leads me to think my crisis was / is irrational.

Inboth activities, when the world turns to filth, it can happen in milliseconds. (Though to be fair, in flying, the unpleasantness can be extended for seconds, or sometimes tens of minutes, in inappropriate weather or enforced go-arounds or whatever).

The only significant difference I can think of is actually one of the key reasons I took up flying in the first place. In the car, if you get things wrong, you can generally get out and walk. Aviating, there's only one person going to get you down in one piece, and that's you. You have to take on complete responsibility, and that's a rare situation in life today - hence my / our crisis of confidence.

It's the sweet combination of pain and pleasure.

SD
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Old 17th Feb 2003, 15:20
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I think Whirly has a very valid point.

When most people (except maybe 17-year-old lads!) first pass their driving test they are still rather nervous about driving. I remember being a passenger with a friend who had just passed and it was excruciating - he was so slow and cautious about doing anything. But after passing their driving test most people get more experience relatively quickly, by borrowing their parents' car or getting their own. The point is that for most people, passing their driving test is a means to an end, ie getting around.

By comparison, for many private flyers the PPL is the end in itself. Of course, for those who go on to get a commercial licence it's just the means - but they're not the ones who are likely to lack confidence in their flying. For us humble low-hours PPLs, unless we are lucky enough to get into a group, buy an aircraft outright, or have plenty of dosh to spare, the expense continues, and - in the eyes of some - becomes less justifiable once you've achieved the goal of getting the licence in the first place. Just look at the thread on pilot drop-out rate if you want evidence of that.

Plus, as others have said, the problems with UK weather and crosswinds mean that you're much more restricted in terms of the days you can actually get up into the air. It's hardly surprising that it takes pilots longer than drivers to build up experience - and confidence.
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Old 17th Feb 2003, 23:13
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Talking

May I disagree...
Driving is nothing special at all,and you really have to be pretty stupid or unlucky to crash / get it wrong.If you stick to the speed limits,keep your eye on the road,and watch out for others,you`ll be fine.

Flying..IMHO a heck of alot easier than driving,no White Van Man or BMW "drivers" out there swerving and kerbing (fighting for whats right whilst trying to stay alive..vigilante!!...love that song )..as long as you plan your next move in advance and maintain situational awareness,you`ll be fine.

So..umm..sorry,I have to disagree on this one folks.If your not confident in yourself and self assured in your abilities, your more lifely to dither at a critical moment and get hurt...you should consider if flying is for you.
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Old 18th Feb 2003, 00:30
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As a pretty experienced instructor I think all pilots fall into two groups

1. Pilots who are better than they think, and

2. Pliots who think they are better than they really are

I think I am usually a group 1 pilot although I can say with authority when I got myself into tight spots I was usually acting like a group 2. In any case the group No 1 pilots will IMHO live longer. I should also add that flying hours are not an especially good indicator of ability. Some pilots have 5000 hours others have one hour 5000 times.
 


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