What will recreational flying be like in a few decades?
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What will recreational flying be like in a few decades?
I was mentoring my charge in her family PA-18 the other day. I told her that when she is my age (she's 19 now), she won't fly around as we do now. I opine that society just won't tolerate wasteful, lead fuel burning, polluting luxury toys, in a world of solar energy, wind turbine generation, low carbon footprint, and don't warm the globe any more. The GA recreational flying aircraft and engines we know now, will largely be 100 year old designs. The horribly inefficient and polluting engines will be socially unacceptable - they might as well be coal powered.
Perhaps we have diesel which will have evolved to work well (and be honest about emissions), and electric aircraft, for short trips. But, there are large development and certification costs between here and there.
There won't be gasoline for GA engines or Hummers.
What do PPRuNers envision for GA recreational flying in the decades to come?
Perhaps we have diesel which will have evolved to work well (and be honest about emissions), and electric aircraft, for short trips. But, there are large development and certification costs between here and there.
There won't be gasoline for GA engines or Hummers.
What do PPRuNers envision for GA recreational flying in the decades to come?
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With luck we'll get electric motors and batteries that just drop right in and replace the original. Eventually with no performance loss.
As far as I know, having not been involved for some time, the radio control crowd have now reached that point - with the possible exception of really high power models like jets. Took a decade or so after the beginnings of the movement in the mid-2000s-ish, but they did it.
Brave new world. I'll miss the snarl of my Continental but I think it'll be great.
As far as I know, having not been involved for some time, the radio control crowd have now reached that point - with the possible exception of really high power models like jets. Took a decade or so after the beginnings of the movement in the mid-2000s-ish, but they did it.
Brave new world. I'll miss the snarl of my Continental but I think it'll be great.
Eventually drones will be reliable enough that in some country, somewhere, people will accept that it's perfectly reasonable to put people in them. Electrical power already makes VTOL vehicles much more feasible so I envisage VTOL vehicles with very small wings that fly very fast and relatively economically over short distances (current aircraft are limited by the need for a reasonable stall speed - doing away with this, perhaps by installing ballistic parachutes, could greatly increase efficiency). Such vehicles are already perfectly feasible so in a way, it seems to me that the regulatory regimes will sooner or later just have to accept them. If the CAA/FAA drag their heels, they'll get popular in China or Kenya or Brazil or somewhere and we'll miss out on a boom industry... But one way or another they will come.
The question will then be whether there will be a need for pilots. At least for a period there will be a need for drones and manned GA aircraft to share airspace, so they will need to work on robust ways for drones to get out of the way of piloted aircraft. As flying is fun, I wouldn't be surprised if the new generation of flying machines allow some means of reversion to manual control and hopefully the infrastructure will allow that.
So all in all I forsee an ability to carry on using airspace for manned vehicles. I'm not so sure about the environmental aspects - when you work it out, there are plenty of relatively innocuous-sounding hobbies that have a much greater environmental impact than flying 20 hours a year in a spamcan, but that doesn't go far towards fixing its image.
If VTOL aircraft do become popular, the next question will be whether there will still be any need to support our airfield/airport infrastructure. There will always be farm strips, but concerns about terrorism may well make it much more difficult to share airports with passenger aircraft.
Those are my predictions anyway... All written with a toddler hassling me down my ear. Gotta go and make a robot out of cardboard.
The question will then be whether there will be a need for pilots. At least for a period there will be a need for drones and manned GA aircraft to share airspace, so they will need to work on robust ways for drones to get out of the way of piloted aircraft. As flying is fun, I wouldn't be surprised if the new generation of flying machines allow some means of reversion to manual control and hopefully the infrastructure will allow that.
So all in all I forsee an ability to carry on using airspace for manned vehicles. I'm not so sure about the environmental aspects - when you work it out, there are plenty of relatively innocuous-sounding hobbies that have a much greater environmental impact than flying 20 hours a year in a spamcan, but that doesn't go far towards fixing its image.
If VTOL aircraft do become popular, the next question will be whether there will still be any need to support our airfield/airport infrastructure. There will always be farm strips, but concerns about terrorism may well make it much more difficult to share airports with passenger aircraft.
Those are my predictions anyway... All written with a toddler hassling me down my ear. Gotta go and make a robot out of cardboard.
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12l an hour with a Rotax 912 in a two-seater than can cruise at 100mph.
That's on a par with a car.
In the future: electric and composite.
As someone said, after a flight in a spam can: when did you last see a car held together with rivets!
That's on a par with a car.
In the future: electric and composite.
As someone said, after a flight in a spam can: when did you last see a car held together with rivets!
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It will never be all electric. Look at it practically, you go touring fly one leg of 400nm then what ? Sit there waiting while you recharge your battery? With Avgas you splash and dash with electric no way.
Electric will be a toy plane one to buzz around the local area and then plug in till next weekend
Hybrid yes thats a different matter or some low cost baby turbine
Pace
Electric will be a toy plane one to buzz around the local area and then plug in till next weekend
Hybrid yes thats a different matter or some low cost baby turbine
Pace
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It will never be all electric. Look at it practically, you go touring fly one leg of 400nm then what ? Sit there waiting while you recharge your battery? With Avgas you splash and dash with electric no way.
Electric will be a toy plane one to buzz around the local area and then plug in till next weekend
Hybrid yes thats a different matter or some low cost baby turbine
Pace
Electric will be a toy plane one to buzz around the local area and then plug in till next weekend
Hybrid yes thats a different matter or some low cost baby turbine
Pace
Batteries will be rented. Exchange units will be slotted in at your destination.
Some flight schools will still have Cessna 152s.
You can become an FI at 50 hrs.
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I'd imagine that if politicians and their polices evolve over the next 30 years similar to how they have over the last 30, any poor sap even considering firing up a slack and smokey old lycomng would be subject to arrest under thought-crime legislation that's no doubt coming down the pike at us.
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Overfill
You would need a lot of electric aircraft to make it viable for all these airports all over Europe to stockpile charged batteries and they would have to be batteries which fit all.
I could see Hybrid where the aircraft runs on Electric in certain phases of flight and Avgas in others or for that matter Diesel.
With the shortage of Avgas which will get worse in many areas of the world jet A1 or Bio Fuel will become the fuel driving force and turbine for me is still the optimum.
I knew some time back Mooney were looking at a low cost baby turbine and maybe that coupled to Electric ?
But I am not the world expert on these things there are far better technology minded people here than me
Pace
You would need a lot of electric aircraft to make it viable for all these airports all over Europe to stockpile charged batteries and they would have to be batteries which fit all.
I could see Hybrid where the aircraft runs on Electric in certain phases of flight and Avgas in others or for that matter Diesel.
With the shortage of Avgas which will get worse in many areas of the world jet A1 or Bio Fuel will become the fuel driving force and turbine for me is still the optimum.
I knew some time back Mooney were looking at a low cost baby turbine and maybe that coupled to Electric ?
But I am not the world expert on these things there are far better technology minded people here than me
Pace
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There will be no need to learn any flying skills. Your aircraft will be operated by tiny computers and microprocessors that will possess 1,000 times the computing capacity of todays electronics.
You will slide into your aircraft seat, where there are no controls of any kind, merely a touch screen.
You will tap in your destination and the screen will respond with some questions about the route and the load figures - which you will input.
Your aircraft will be manufactured from super-lightweight materials and be powered by a relatively small, but powerful battery, which drives multiple, highly-efficient, lightweight electric motors which drive multiple ducted fans at extremely high RPM's. The casings of the electric motors and ducted fans will form structural parts of the aircraft frame.
These turboelectric engines will produce equivalent thrust on a weight-to-power basis, that is equal to current jet engines.
There will be a small back-up battery in case of complete main battery failure.
The electric motors will be boosted to high power levels for takeoff, by small but powerful super-capacitors. These super-capacitors can store huge amounts of electrical energy, and release it over many minutes to enable rapid climb.
Upon descent, regenerative power will be produced from the ducted fan motors, to recharge the batteries and the super-capacitors.
The computers and microprocessors on board will be controlled by hundreds of sensors that sense every single movement of the aircraft, and respond accordingly, calculating the most efficient response.
The elimination of mechanical controls will result in huge weight savings in construction. Tiny electric motors will actuate all control surfaces directly. In the event of a major electrics failure, a rocket-activated parachute will return your aircraft to Earth gently.
Flying will become so simplistic and available to all, that airline forums will be full of pilots decrying the lack of skills needed to become airborne - and how they wished they could turn back the clock, to a time when real flying skills were needed and taught.
50% of the above technology is with us now - the next 40% of the above technology is within reach within a few short years.
It will only take a few advances in battery and electric motor technology, to provide the remaining 10% advance.
Distributed electric propulsion
You will slide into your aircraft seat, where there are no controls of any kind, merely a touch screen.
You will tap in your destination and the screen will respond with some questions about the route and the load figures - which you will input.
Your aircraft will be manufactured from super-lightweight materials and be powered by a relatively small, but powerful battery, which drives multiple, highly-efficient, lightweight electric motors which drive multiple ducted fans at extremely high RPM's. The casings of the electric motors and ducted fans will form structural parts of the aircraft frame.
These turboelectric engines will produce equivalent thrust on a weight-to-power basis, that is equal to current jet engines.
There will be a small back-up battery in case of complete main battery failure.
The electric motors will be boosted to high power levels for takeoff, by small but powerful super-capacitors. These super-capacitors can store huge amounts of electrical energy, and release it over many minutes to enable rapid climb.
Upon descent, regenerative power will be produced from the ducted fan motors, to recharge the batteries and the super-capacitors.
The computers and microprocessors on board will be controlled by hundreds of sensors that sense every single movement of the aircraft, and respond accordingly, calculating the most efficient response.
The elimination of mechanical controls will result in huge weight savings in construction. Tiny electric motors will actuate all control surfaces directly. In the event of a major electrics failure, a rocket-activated parachute will return your aircraft to Earth gently.
Flying will become so simplistic and available to all, that airline forums will be full of pilots decrying the lack of skills needed to become airborne - and how they wished they could turn back the clock, to a time when real flying skills were needed and taught.
50% of the above technology is with us now - the next 40% of the above technology is within reach within a few short years.
It will only take a few advances in battery and electric motor technology, to provide the remaining 10% advance.
Distributed electric propulsion
Last edited by onetrack; 22nd Nov 2015 at 10:50.
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One track
And when all those electronics go into brain fade what happens then?
Sorry I don't trust anything in aircraft from autopilots to electronics
Anyway I fly because I love flying I am not looking for a take me from A to B aircraft if I want that I fly scheduled and at least have a pretty trolley dolly to bring me some rubbish food or a drink)))
Pace
And when all those electronics go into brain fade what happens then?
Sorry I don't trust anything in aircraft from autopilots to electronics
Anyway I fly because I love flying I am not looking for a take me from A to B aircraft if I want that I fly scheduled and at least have a pretty trolley dolly to bring me some rubbish food or a drink)))
Pace
Last edited by Pace; 22nd Nov 2015 at 12:19.
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Pace - You just press the "reset" button - and if that fails to produce the desired result, you just press the 'chute button!
Your new fully-electronic, self-drive aircraft, is largely unrepairable anyway, in the case of major failure or serious damage - all components are sealed to prevent the ingress of dust, moisture, chemicals, and other injurious and spurious products - and any major failures in the critical components will merely see your aircraft written off and recycled, and you will acquire a new replacement at modest cost.
Robots will produce all the new aircraft in a totally clinical environment, to precision levels that are impossible with human hands - and the cost of producing this new aircraft, will be on a par with a small family car.
So, the aircraft replacement cost will be quite low, and repairs will be limited to major component exchange. Robots will exchange any major components with speed and precision, when required.
We already have increasing amounts of large mining equipment that are driverless - trains are next - and driverless cars are rapidly being developed, and these will be viable, saleable products.
Not too many years after the advent and uptake of driverless cars, there will be pressure applied to remove all "old technology" cars that need a driver, from the roads - with the argument being used, that roads full of driverless cars are much safer than roads full of mixed vehicles.
There is little reason to believe that piloting and flying will be immune from the push to total automation of all powered products.
Rio Tinto opens worlds first automated mine
Your new fully-electronic, self-drive aircraft, is largely unrepairable anyway, in the case of major failure or serious damage - all components are sealed to prevent the ingress of dust, moisture, chemicals, and other injurious and spurious products - and any major failures in the critical components will merely see your aircraft written off and recycled, and you will acquire a new replacement at modest cost.
Robots will produce all the new aircraft in a totally clinical environment, to precision levels that are impossible with human hands - and the cost of producing this new aircraft, will be on a par with a small family car.
So, the aircraft replacement cost will be quite low, and repairs will be limited to major component exchange. Robots will exchange any major components with speed and precision, when required.
We already have increasing amounts of large mining equipment that are driverless - trains are next - and driverless cars are rapidly being developed, and these will be viable, saleable products.
Not too many years after the advent and uptake of driverless cars, there will be pressure applied to remove all "old technology" cars that need a driver, from the roads - with the argument being used, that roads full of driverless cars are much safer than roads full of mixed vehicles.
There is little reason to believe that piloting and flying will be immune from the push to total automation of all powered products.
Rio Tinto opens worlds first automated mine
I guess these replies are all tongue-in-cheek, no?
My plane is, as it happens, exactly as old as the difference in ages from the OP. It's probably about at the median age of all the planes on the field (it was made in 1980). I think all the predictions about self-flying electric planes are right up there with similar predictions from 50 years ago.
I therefore predict that in 2050 Palo Alto airport will look pretty much as it does now. The paint on all those 2010+ Cirruses will be a bit older and shabbier. There will be a lot more European LSAs, which imo are the future of private aviation right now. They will have piston engines and avionics which are not radically different from what we have now. (There are still loads of planes flying with the identical Bendix-King avionics that my plane had when new, not to say a lot which are even older).
There'll always be pressure from neighbours, busybodies and tree huggers to shut down private aviation. But there are practical reasons to keep it going too, and a decent-sized industry behind it, at least in the US. They may succeed in Europe, where private flying is so much less common. But China has a developing GA scene which will probably be a lot more developed by then.
Electric planes need a major revolution in battery technology to be more than a novelty. Hybrid planes just make no sense at all - unlike cars, planes do very little stopping and starting, which is where hybrid cars excel, and run all the time close to full power, which cars almost never do.
My 2c...
My plane is, as it happens, exactly as old as the difference in ages from the OP. It's probably about at the median age of all the planes on the field (it was made in 1980). I think all the predictions about self-flying electric planes are right up there with similar predictions from 50 years ago.
I therefore predict that in 2050 Palo Alto airport will look pretty much as it does now. The paint on all those 2010+ Cirruses will be a bit older and shabbier. There will be a lot more European LSAs, which imo are the future of private aviation right now. They will have piston engines and avionics which are not radically different from what we have now. (There are still loads of planes flying with the identical Bendix-King avionics that my plane had when new, not to say a lot which are even older).
There'll always be pressure from neighbours, busybodies and tree huggers to shut down private aviation. But there are practical reasons to keep it going too, and a decent-sized industry behind it, at least in the US. They may succeed in Europe, where private flying is so much less common. But China has a developing GA scene which will probably be a lot more developed by then.
Electric planes need a major revolution in battery technology to be more than a novelty. Hybrid planes just make no sense at all - unlike cars, planes do very little stopping and starting, which is where hybrid cars excel, and run all the time close to full power, which cars almost never do.
My 2c...
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The 'environmental lobby' are more likely to focus on household devices (like hoovers, kettles, ovens, central heating) and on road traffic (including haulage) before bothering with GA.
This is because they will be interested in making changes that make a big difference. While an individual GA aircraft is more polluting than a car, the aggregate pollution by GA is probably nothing compared to other things.
What will be interesting is if light aircraft become even cheaper, and reach the kind of critical mass that allows benefits of scale in production. The number of people involved in GA is almost certainly limited by money. If it became cheaper then there would be a lot more people, and hence more accidents.
Just like there is talk within the 'drone' world of the 'event' that will occur at some point and force legislation (the first drone to cause a death). I think that it will only take one or two GA crashes that result in civilian deaths on the ground to make some people wonder why all these private citizens are allowed to fly around above populated areas.
So I see the 'future' as more restrictions. Due to increasing numbers of participants flying low cost aircraft.
This is because they will be interested in making changes that make a big difference. While an individual GA aircraft is more polluting than a car, the aggregate pollution by GA is probably nothing compared to other things.
What will be interesting is if light aircraft become even cheaper, and reach the kind of critical mass that allows benefits of scale in production. The number of people involved in GA is almost certainly limited by money. If it became cheaper then there would be a lot more people, and hence more accidents.
Just like there is talk within the 'drone' world of the 'event' that will occur at some point and force legislation (the first drone to cause a death). I think that it will only take one or two GA crashes that result in civilian deaths on the ground to make some people wonder why all these private citizens are allowed to fly around above populated areas.
So I see the 'future' as more restrictions. Due to increasing numbers of participants flying low cost aircraft.
The new trend is that authorities will fund people to keep land open and free, with the excuse that most Western European soil is rapidly becoming full of either habitation or small businesses. The main goal of such a scheme would be to support agriculture, but aerodromes could perhaps take their share. The more so that there is a growing awareness of the ecological value of aerodromes, as breeding and feeding grounds for many kinds of animals, including several endangered species.