The lesser of two evils (A hypothetical situation)
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The lesser of two evils (A hypothetical situation)
I was driving back from a day’s boating in Oban (West coast of Scotland) to Dundee (East coast of Scotland) and as is my habit on long car journeys across different terrain and conditions, I ask myself how would I fly this route (I’m a low time VFR PPL). The weather was pretty much unrestricted viz, low wind with about 50% cloud covering coming down as low as a few hundred feet of the mountain tops, the terrain for the first ¾ of the journey is mountainous with narrow passes and valleys surrounded by steep mountain peaks up to 3500 to 4000ft, the remaining ¼ of the journey is down on to a coastal plain at about 250MSL. What was unusual about this “mental flight plan” was I could not decide the best altitude I would use in this particular situation, my thoughts were as follows:
1. Stay under the partial cloud covering and ensure permanent ground visibility but perhaps expect some bumps by being so close under the bases and having my altitude restricted to the tops of the ridges with the potential of being exposed to rotors/mountain wave if the wind picked up, also running the risk of the bases dropping down lower into the passes and obscuring the hilltops.
2. Fly above the cloud covering which I assume would be smoother but run the risk of the 50% covering becoming 100% as I near the coast.
I would be interested to hear from folks with more experience as to what considerations I may have missed and what factors would drive their decision in this scenario.
1. Stay under the partial cloud covering and ensure permanent ground visibility but perhaps expect some bumps by being so close under the bases and having my altitude restricted to the tops of the ridges with the potential of being exposed to rotors/mountain wave if the wind picked up, also running the risk of the bases dropping down lower into the passes and obscuring the hilltops.
2. Fly above the cloud covering which I assume would be smoother but run the risk of the 50% covering becoming 100% as I near the coast.
I would be interested to hear from folks with more experience as to what considerations I may have missed and what factors would drive their decision in this scenario.
Last edited by piperboy84; 24th Sep 2012 at 20:34.
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I've only done Kingsmuir/Oban once, late December, it was clear all the way there, but on the way back about 50% cloud close to the summits. Stayed above it still in sight of the surface & worried in case it clagged in all over. It didn't & decended from 4/5000ft in the flatlands south of Perth.
I think I found your strip on Saturday east of Forfar, couldn't see any activity on the ground so went home. Nice looking strip, & looks wide enough for my suboptimal landings.
I think I found your strip on Saturday east of Forfar, couldn't see any activity on the ground so went home. Nice looking strip, & looks wide enough for my suboptimal landings.
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I was away but my girlfriend said she saw a N reg plane ending with an F circling low, was that you?
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CAS permitting, I'd go straight over the top and then do a letdown over the sea at the other end
I would say the answer depends a lot on the forecast, as long as behind you is going to remain OK and you have the fuel, then go on top with a turn back as an option, another is to stay on top as long as you have decent gaps and let down through one (ensuring you do this in good time and keeping the surface WELL in sight) if it starts to close in! Bearing in mind that if windy and/or the cloubase is too low you may need to turn back anyway. Of course you could get IF trained and then do as Peter suggests. I would be very wary of flying low through mountainous areas without suitable training.
Finally, there is the safest option if you are unsure of the weather - stay on the ground!
Last edited by foxmoth; 25th Sep 2012 at 07:15.
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Yes; agreed.
However I should add that the whole of Europe (except the UK) has allowed PPLs to fly above a solid overcast for as many years as anybody can remember.
What is different in the UK? The lack of navigation training?
You need to remain VMC so checking the wx (actual and forecast) carefully at the far end is necessary.
It's a choice between flying below cloud (and possibly getting stuffed by a gradual convergence of terrain and cloudbase, and if letting this go too far, being unable to turn back while maintaining VMC) and flying above cloud and getting stuffed by not finding a hole to descend through.
The former kills far more pilots than the latter.
In the southern UK, one usually cannot fly above cloud, due to Class A everywhere.
However I should add that the whole of Europe (except the UK) has allowed PPLs to fly above a solid overcast for as many years as anybody can remember.
What is different in the UK? The lack of navigation training?
You need to remain VMC so checking the wx (actual and forecast) carefully at the far end is necessary.
It's a choice between flying below cloud (and possibly getting stuffed by a gradual convergence of terrain and cloudbase, and if letting this go too far, being unable to turn back while maintaining VMC) and flying above cloud and getting stuffed by not finding a hole to descend through.
The former kills far more pilots than the latter.
In the southern UK, one usually cannot fly above cloud, due to Class A everywhere.
The Dragon Rapide had no deicing equipment (other than the dubious expedient of spreading grease on leading edges!) With its struts and wires it was an ideal ice-gathering device.
When it was the mainstay of Scottish domestic services, captains were understandably reluctant to enter cloud in winter time - particularly as letdown aids were primitive and rare.
It follows that they devised many low level routes from town to town. It is possible to return from the Hebrides to Glasgow without exceeding 200 feet by judicious use of sea routes and the Crinan canal.
It is also possible to fly from Inverness to Stornoway without exceeding 1000 feet - although that could be a rough ride in strong winds and required accurate map reading!
When it was the mainstay of Scottish domestic services, captains were understandably reluctant to enter cloud in winter time - particularly as letdown aids were primitive and rare.
It follows that they devised many low level routes from town to town. It is possible to return from the Hebrides to Glasgow without exceeding 200 feet by judicious use of sea routes and the Crinan canal.
It is also possible to fly from Inverness to Stornoway without exceeding 1000 feet - although that could be a rough ride in strong winds and required accurate map reading!
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Well. it is the age old debate, do we go up??, or do we stay down. Good old scud running is the term, and in Scotland, most pilots should be particularly adept at it.Follow the A9, and you cant get lost, or something like that.
Peter is of course correct, we bang on about safety, and how can we improve it, and yet, more restricted airspace than ever before, more controlled airspace than ever, and more interesting weather of late. The CAA introduced that IMC, 'the get out of jail card, a term I really dislike, in recognition of the UK terrain, and weather, however, perhaps all pilots should be IR trained?? Perhaps you could start with SEP, Complex type, and issue financial incentives to schools and trainee's, now that would be progress towards SAFETY.
If the viz is good below, and you know your way around, stay below and go low level. If weather at destination has been checked, go above, but planning is key, and having a get out at the other end is always prudent.
Peter is of course correct, we bang on about safety, and how can we improve it, and yet, more restricted airspace than ever before, more controlled airspace than ever, and more interesting weather of late. The CAA introduced that IMC, 'the get out of jail card, a term I really dislike, in recognition of the UK terrain, and weather, however, perhaps all pilots should be IR trained?? Perhaps you could start with SEP, Complex type, and issue financial incentives to schools and trainee's, now that would be progress towards SAFETY.
If the viz is good below, and you know your way around, stay below and go low level. If weather at destination has been checked, go above, but planning is key, and having a get out at the other end is always prudent.
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My low level option to Oban involves routing via Kippin, Helenburgh, Dunoon, Bute, Crinan Canal and up the west coast.
Adds about 50% compared with DCT but gets you there.
Where do you berth your boat? A buddy of mine has one at Dunstaffnage and flys up most weekends.
Adds about 50% compared with DCT but gets you there.
Where do you berth your boat? A buddy of mine has one at Dunstaffnage and flys up most weekends.
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Been there, done that - reminds me of a day long ago, transiting form Inverness to CBN, in total crap. Picked up the A9, however, took a wrong turn in a particularly heavy rain shower, into a dead end valley.
Can we turn in here was the comment to my colleague sitting behind. Course we can came the reply, back out and picked the road up again.
Blinded by headlights though.........
Can we turn in here was the comment to my colleague sitting behind. Course we can came the reply, back out and picked the road up again.
Blinded by headlights though.........
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If you go to The Scottish Gliding Centre Official Website and click on webcams around Scotland that may help you make a decision.
I've used the route described by 140kias many times and it can be done well below 1000 ft.
The A9 is ok for Inverness but remember it climbs above 1000ft.
D.O.
I've used the route described by 140kias many times and it can be done well below 1000 ft.
The A9 is ok for Inverness but remember it climbs above 1000ft.
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perhaps all pilots should be IR trained?? Perhaps you could start with SEP, Complex type, and issue financial incentives to schools and trainee's, now that would be progress towards SAFETY.
Regarding the OP, a low hour PPL shouldn't attempt that flight in those conditions. There is insufficient VMC twixt clouds and mountains (recipe for CFIT), and he doesn't have the qualifications or experience to handle an IFR letdown if he went 'on top' and the cover became 100%.
.
Last edited by Shaggy Sheep Driver; 25th Sep 2012 at 08:38.
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Regarding the OP, a low hour PPL shouldn't attempt that flight in those conditions. There is insufficient VMC twixt clouds and mountains (recipe for CFIT), and he doesn't have the qualifications or experience to handle an IFR letdown if he went 'on top' and the cover became 100%.
The highest mountain tops on that route are 3800ft. Piperboy described the cloud as 50% cover and above the peaks. It doesn't get much better most of the time. (Provided there are not strong winds blowing) the valleys are wide and the peaks sparse so VFR is fine.
I'm not suggesting the road route from Forfar to Oban is the best to fly but many of the valley routes are fine.
If the wx is overcast at 2000ft then 140kias route is the answer. Often when you get to Loch Lomond you can see a clear way direct to Oban which would be a sensible short cut.
As an afterthought if you can get a couple of thousand feet above the cloud tops you can get a pretty good view of the ground with 50% cover and you will be above any haze. You may be able to see Ben Cruachan from Forfar and you will have a grandstand seat to see if the cloud is closing up ahead..
Piperboy if you want a blether you'll get me on 119.80
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The key on how to get from one side to the other is to uinderstand what is happening 'on both sides'. The high ground frequently results in very different conditions on both sides.
Webcams, METARs and talking to people on the other side allow you build that picture. Experience then allows you to make the decision. It is interesting to seek out low level routes - if only for their scenery value and potential use as bolt holes.
At the end of the day there is a possiblity of taking the high option and getting to the other side and being faced with unbroken cloud. In the Maule (or my aircraft) the final option is simply to come back! Frequently you will find the cloud cover is broken in the lee of the higher island on the west or the larger peaks on the east. My personal preference is to take the low route and I'm relaxed about flying in the sort of conditions you describe - they are pretty common. The gotcha is that the windward facing slopes may accumulate a lot of low clound and so you may find your route blocked as you get toward the lower ground. There is always the option of a 180 turn...
Taking the low option presumes you can sort out where the rotor / turbulence will be and you the weather is reasonable enough to avoid it. As Dont overfill says these sort of conditions are pretty common here.
Webcams, METARs and talking to people on the other side allow you build that picture. Experience then allows you to make the decision. It is interesting to seek out low level routes - if only for their scenery value and potential use as bolt holes.
At the end of the day there is a possiblity of taking the high option and getting to the other side and being faced with unbroken cloud. In the Maule (or my aircraft) the final option is simply to come back! Frequently you will find the cloud cover is broken in the lee of the higher island on the west or the larger peaks on the east. My personal preference is to take the low route and I'm relaxed about flying in the sort of conditions you describe - they are pretty common. The gotcha is that the windward facing slopes may accumulate a lot of low clound and so you may find your route blocked as you get toward the lower ground. There is always the option of a 180 turn...
Taking the low option presumes you can sort out where the rotor / turbulence will be and you the weather is reasonable enough to avoid it. As Dont overfill says these sort of conditions are pretty common here.
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As an afterthought if you can get a couple of thousand feet above the cloud tops you can get a pretty good view of the ground with 50% cover and you will be above any haze. You may be able to see Ben Cruachan from Forfar and you will have a grandstand seat to see if the cloud is closing up ahead..
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Have you done much flying through the cairngorms/west coast of scotland? SSD?
There are some of us that have had to get N to S and back again, sometimes 3 times a week winter/summer come snow rain hurricians and the occassional nice day.
And its been going on for at least 10 years.
There are some of us that have had to get N to S and back again, sometimes 3 times a week winter/summer come snow rain hurricians and the occassional nice day.
And its been going on for at least 10 years.
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The answer must always be to take the safest option and worry about the legalities later. this usually involves climbing rather than descending in Scotland unless over a wide bit of sea.
Almost every time I've been to Oban or Glenforsa I've ended up spiralling down to cloud break overhead BRUCE.
I don't know how many hours you have but if more than about 20 your next step should be an IMCR and then you can follow Peter's strategy with confidence
Almost every time I've been to Oban or Glenforsa I've ended up spiralling down to cloud break overhead BRUCE.
I don't know how many hours you have but if more than about 20 your next step should be an IMCR and then you can follow Peter's strategy with confidence