Are the Halcyon Days of Private Flying Over?
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I agree Fuji, though I would say that leisure activity budgets fluctuate wildly according to how well people feel about their financial security generally, and right now (property values declining, etc) not many people do fell all that well about theirs.
Give it a few years and things could well be very different.
Look at the absolutely massive downturn in GA in the 1970s. Activity went down by (of the order of) 5 to 10 times in the USA and elsewhere - as did new aircraft sales.
Today's decline is nothing compared to that.
Give it a few years and things could well be very different.
Look at the absolutely massive downturn in GA in the 1970s. Activity went down by (of the order of) 5 to 10 times in the USA and elsewhere - as did new aircraft sales.
Today's decline is nothing compared to that.
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Well you are also correct and it is important to remain positive.
There is an ongoing shift of wealth in the UK. There is little doubt the fraction of the population that has large disposable incomes is growing and will probably continue to grow as the economic climate deteriorates.
Of course it is up to GA to attract as large a number of pilots from that fraction as it can.
The danger is that aviation is a minority "sport". Ten wealthy individuals will not keep an airfield solvent, whereas ten wealthy individuals and twenty less wealthy individuals will.
We may see the intermediate sized airfields as vulnerable as well as the larger maintenance organisations that are totally reliant on GA. We may also see the schools that rely solely on ab initio training as vulnerable.
On a wider issue it will be interesting to see what the future holds for the price of fuel. There are those that say the days of "cheap" fuel are gone forever. At the moment the tensions in the ME between Israel and the Arab world and in particular Iran are unlikely to go away in a hurry. Other producers are not minded to increase production and / or are capable of doing so.
The world order is changing. No longer are the Americans the dominant super power. Their influence is diminishing, even if they are kicking and screaming about it. Unfortunately we have even less influence now that we ever have.
I am not sure I would want to be starting out today but then again you certainly would not be short of a challenge or two!
There is an ongoing shift of wealth in the UK. There is little doubt the fraction of the population that has large disposable incomes is growing and will probably continue to grow as the economic climate deteriorates.
Of course it is up to GA to attract as large a number of pilots from that fraction as it can.
The danger is that aviation is a minority "sport". Ten wealthy individuals will not keep an airfield solvent, whereas ten wealthy individuals and twenty less wealthy individuals will.
We may see the intermediate sized airfields as vulnerable as well as the larger maintenance organisations that are totally reliant on GA. We may also see the schools that rely solely on ab initio training as vulnerable.
On a wider issue it will be interesting to see what the future holds for the price of fuel. There are those that say the days of "cheap" fuel are gone forever. At the moment the tensions in the ME between Israel and the Arab world and in particular Iran are unlikely to go away in a hurry. Other producers are not minded to increase production and / or are capable of doing so.
The world order is changing. No longer are the Americans the dominant super power. Their influence is diminishing, even if they are kicking and screaming about it. Unfortunately we have even less influence now that we ever have.
I am not sure I would want to be starting out today but then again you certainly would not be short of a challenge or two!
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To get down to say 750kg, you don't get something for nothing. Short of building every bit of the whole ship out of carbon/kevlar (which would make it cost £200k+) .
The all carbon aircraft cost about 50K all in and come in at about 230 270kg. Mine is 253kg and passes CS-VLA (ie it is not going to fall apart). This is the situation as of today, not some theoretical guess of what might be.
From an LAA / BMAA perspective we have many more strips than at any time, we have much more capable aircraft, much lower fuel and maintenance costs. For the fun flyer life has never been so good!
Rod1
The all carbon aircraft cost about 50K all in and come in at about 230 270kg. Mine is 253kg and passes CS-VLA (ie it is not going to fall apart). This is the situation as of today, not some theoretical guess of what might be.
From an LAA / BMAA perspective we have many more strips than at any time, we have much more capable aircraft, much lower fuel and maintenance costs. For the fun flyer life has never been so good!
Rod1
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From an LAA / BMAA perspective we have many more strips than at any time, we have much more capable aircraft, much lower fuel and maintenance costs. For the fun flyer life has never been so good!
You shed a load of regulatory burden, you have the capability to operate out of grass strips and / or accept you dont need or want all the support services that go with larger airports and therefore the ground infra structure costs diddly squat to operate.
In my mind (irrationally I know) safety remains an issue. The record is in fact very good but IO mkaes some sound points about the often all to flimsy construction of some LAA types. However, I forsee the use of BPS becoming far more common and rightly so.
Moreover I suppose as the Italians may be about to demonstrate it is still possible to produce a very light twin using Rotax engines with the associated safety "advantages", even if they will not qualify as LAA types at the moment. That said who is to stop someone fitting a Rotax in the front and back of an LAA type or a contra rotating engine on the wing to avoid most of the asymetric issues which give twins a bad name and yet still get some where near the weight allowance for aircraft of this type.
Moreover as numbers increase the manufacturers will respond. We are already seeing the likes of Garmin producing versions of their G1000 system specifically designed for LAA types. As the market responds so are Garmin likely to respond in pricing the product to suite the market.
In almost every way LAA types make heaps of sense for the future of GA in exactly the same way as the new electric Smart car will for every commuter journey even if old habits die hard.
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I paid £65-85/hour in the mid-late '80s for C150 and C172s I pay £103/hour for a Warrior now, it is much cheaper comparatively now.
also as a Comparison, as soon as I passed Air Loadmaster Ground school and my pay doubled (£6k-£12k) in October '88 I went out an bought a new Seat Ibiza 1.2 for £6,700 (They had the best deal and most interest in selling to a 19 year old) the same/better spec car is now £8,995, not much of an increase in 20 years!
also as a Comparison, as soon as I passed Air Loadmaster Ground school and my pay doubled (£6k-£12k) in October '88 I went out an bought a new Seat Ibiza 1.2 for £6,700 (They had the best deal and most interest in selling to a 19 year old) the same/better spec car is now £8,995, not much of an increase in 20 years!
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Interesting points being made on this thread. Personally I think General Aviation will continue to survive, despite what is currently going on (high oil prices, economic woes, environmentalism). Whilst I'm not old enough to remember the troubles of the 70s looking at history it does seem to draw parallels with today's problems... in the 70s there was tension in the Middle-East, oil prices went through the roof, economies were collapsing etc. Although as has been said it seems like today is small fry compared to what happened over 30 years ago.
For me it's hard not to draw the conclusion that this seems to be a cycle which is repeating itself again. Flying will unfortunately never be cheap, it never has been - it's not something which can be made cheap. Perhaps in 10-15 years' time we shall be looking back on today at the doom-and-gloom and wondering what we were all worrying about. There aigain perhaps I will be wrong!
Fuel prices I think are the main overriding concern for aviation as a whole, not just GA. Will oil continue to rise in price forever more? Are the days of "cheap" oil gone forever? It would be foolish to make a judgment now but I can't help but feel we have been here before in the 70s.
Personally I look forward to the future to see what it will bring... PPLs instructing; Corporate Aviation expanding rapidly; glass cockpits in light singles; I am keeping a watchful eye on developments with an open mind to see what the future brings for GA.
For me it's hard not to draw the conclusion that this seems to be a cycle which is repeating itself again. Flying will unfortunately never be cheap, it never has been - it's not something which can be made cheap. Perhaps in 10-15 years' time we shall be looking back on today at the doom-and-gloom and wondering what we were all worrying about. There aigain perhaps I will be wrong!
Fuel prices I think are the main overriding concern for aviation as a whole, not just GA. Will oil continue to rise in price forever more? Are the days of "cheap" oil gone forever? It would be foolish to make a judgment now but I can't help but feel we have been here before in the 70s.
Personally I look forward to the future to see what it will bring... PPLs instructing; Corporate Aviation expanding rapidly; glass cockpits in light singles; I am keeping a watchful eye on developments with an open mind to see what the future brings for GA.
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To get down to say 750kg, you don't get something for nothing. Short of building every bit of the whole ship out of carbon/kevlar (which would make it cost £200k+) .
My 1948 Luscombe has a MAUW of 1400 lb and as far as I'm aware carbon/kevlar hadn't been invented when it was built.
450kg perhaps?
I agree with you, the paring down of what in the marine world are called scantlings to get under an arbitrary weight limit is worrying. Yes, the stress calcs will work and the test airframe will pass the load tests but you end up with something like the performance figures.
A test pilot in a brand new aircraft will be able to achieve a certain performance. That doesn't mean that Joa Soap in a twenty year old one can do the same.
In the smae way the fact that a carefully constructed prototype passed the load tests does not necessarily mean that every example thereafter is built to the same standard or that its strength several years later is the same as when new. You need to allow a bit of leeway for variations in build quality.
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Much better non certified stuff available at a fraction of the price.
Garmin's new offering is the G900X
https://buy.garmin.com/shop/shop.do?pID=419&tab=g900x#
based largely on their certified G1000.
Ignoring the price, what systems are currently available that are as capable, well proven and have the clarrity of display and robustness of the Garmins?
Moreover, can you be as certain that the company will still be around in a year, two years or five years from now.
I have not been able to find anything so I would be really interested in what is better or what is nearly as good.
Pompey till I die
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Aviation has got MORE expensive then
According to http://www.measuringworth.com/ppoweruk/index.php
£3ph in 1950 is £75 today
£6.50 in 1972 is £61.81 today
So compare that with today's prices and aviation has exploded in it's expense.
£3ph in 1950 is £75 today
£6.50 in 1972 is £61.81 today
So compare that with today's prices and aviation has exploded in it's expense.
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Have a look at the MGL Stratomaster Odyssey. This is only one of 10 or so similar systems, but it is a long established company. I have an Engine moniter called an E2 from them, which has been very good.
Rod1
Rod1
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The prices on that site are based on the RPI, and are rather misleading. Some parts of the economy inflate far more than others.
According to that measure, the 3-bed semi in Cheltenham I bought in 1979 (and sold again 3 years later) for £12000 would today be worth £43,740... Actual price (even allowing for recent falls) is probably nearer £175,000 - £200,000.
Petrol in 1971 was £0.33 per gallon, according to RPI that would be £3.36 now. If only...
According to that measure, the 3-bed semi in Cheltenham I bought in 1979 (and sold again 3 years later) for £12000 would today be worth £43,740... Actual price (even allowing for recent falls) is probably nearer £175,000 - £200,000.
Petrol in 1971 was £0.33 per gallon, according to RPI that would be £3.36 now. If only...
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There is nothing uncertified which I have seen which gets anywhere near the comprehensive functionality of the G1000 - though I have not seen (with my own eyes) stuff available for the U.S. Experimental market, which I have seen in catalogues, and much of which is utterly impressive and at prices c. 1/5 of certified products.
However, as a visit to any European GA show shows, there is a lot of "glass panel" stuff out there, and some of it is very good - along the lines of the Avidyne product i.e. no integrated GPS or autopilots.
Yes Mike but you can hardly call that a tourer 
Nobody denies that a lightweight plane can be built using WW1 technology. But you still end up with a very basic construction. Flying along and you feel the cold draught going up your leg from some orifice somewhere... Anybody can do 750kg or less if they make such compromises.
However, as a visit to any European GA show shows, there is a lot of "glass panel" stuff out there, and some of it is very good - along the lines of the Avidyne product i.e. no integrated GPS or autopilots.
My 1948 Luscombe has a MAUW of 1400 lb
Nobody denies that a lightweight plane can be built using WW1 technology. But you still end up with a very basic construction. Flying along and you feel the cold draught going up your leg from some orifice somewhere... Anybody can do 750kg or less if they make such compromises.
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Rod1
Thanks for the link - on the basis of the information on their site I would agree that Garmin now have some competition!
It is good to see others producing systems that have a sensible sized screen and dont look like they will fall apart in five minutes. I shall look forward to seeing that system in the flesh!
Thanks for the link - on the basis of the information on their site I would agree that Garmin now have some competition!
It is good to see others producing systems that have a sensible sized screen and dont look like they will fall apart in five minutes. I shall look forward to seeing that system in the flesh!
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Not sure we should not start another thred for the glass side of this?
The kit I am talking about has an integrated GPS, full support for a range of autopilots, full remote control of radios (from the gps database), full solid state horizon and compass, 3d vision (similar to the G1000 perspective) and full engine monitor. I am sure there are things which the G1000 will do that this will not, but at a starting price of £1295 up ( I would expect to pay about £5k for a full dual screen solution) it is very good value. C of A aircraft are of course not allowed to fit them.
Rod1
The kit I am talking about has an integrated GPS, full support for a range of autopilots, full remote control of radios (from the gps database), full solid state horizon and compass, 3d vision (similar to the G1000 perspective) and full engine monitor. I am sure there are things which the G1000 will do that this will not, but at a starting price of £1295 up ( I would expect to pay about £5k for a full dual screen solution) it is very good value. C of A aircraft are of course not allowed to fit them.
Rod1
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Yes Mike but you can hardly call that a tourer Nobody denies that a lightweight plane can be built using WW1 technology. But you still end up with a very basic construction. Flying along and you feel the cold draught going up your leg from some orifice somewhere... Anybody can do 750kg or less if they make such compromises.
