Tafs and flying today
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ah well 1100 in 22 years shows a cautious streak. Some of us have flown that in the last 3 years and so I think that respect for the weather is probably tempered with that experiance.
I am not knocking your choice's we all make ours based on our experiance and currency.
I have flown around quite a few Cb's and recall a very memorable vectored ILS in Guernsey a year or so ago with Ludwig that did have me wishing we were else where. Black as night and the airframe sounded like it was being sandblasted. But we survived to tell the story and leant from it.
I do fly for business but as I have no work ethic have no pressures either, but that does not stop me expanding the envelope of personal experiance.
I am not knocking your choice's we all make ours based on our experiance and currency.
I have flown around quite a few Cb's and recall a very memorable vectored ILS in Guernsey a year or so ago with Ludwig that did have me wishing we were else where. Black as night and the airframe sounded like it was being sandblasted. But we survived to tell the story and leant from it.
I do fly for business but as I have no work ethic have no pressures either, but that does not stop me expanding the envelope of personal experiance.
Last edited by S-Works; 10th May 2005 at 19:37.
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Rednine
I am sorry I just do not understand.
I can understand people being selective about the conditions in which they fly - no problem at all with that. I can understand pilots being cautious - thats sensible.
I cant understand the stance you have taken.
You have flown in CBs and TSs. OK well that is a lot further than anyone on this thread has discussed. I dont suppose for one moment it was where you wanted to be. Thats not what the question was about.
The original questioner was asking, as I assume a relatively inexperienced pilot, whether conditions over the weekend were suitable for flying safely given the TAF and AF forecasts suggesting a 30% prob of CBs and +10k vis. I think he is entitled to an informed reply from pilots with a good level of experience.
You suggested that pilots who fly in these conditions were "cowboys" and a commercial pilot friend would "not even consider flying"
I simply do not understand given your experience how you could reach that conclusion. I also do not think it is born out by the facts. There were plenty of other pilots flying, a lot of instructors up with students, and I didnt here a single pilot ask for a weather diversion. Were they all "cowboys"?
With your level of experience are you seriously suggesting there are particular problems avoiding CBs given these conditions? If you are what specific problems do you have in mind and why?
I am sorry I just do not understand.
I can understand people being selective about the conditions in which they fly - no problem at all with that. I can understand pilots being cautious - thats sensible.
I cant understand the stance you have taken.
You have flown in CBs and TSs. OK well that is a lot further than anyone on this thread has discussed. I dont suppose for one moment it was where you wanted to be. Thats not what the question was about.
The original questioner was asking, as I assume a relatively inexperienced pilot, whether conditions over the weekend were suitable for flying safely given the TAF and AF forecasts suggesting a 30% prob of CBs and +10k vis. I think he is entitled to an informed reply from pilots with a good level of experience.
You suggested that pilots who fly in these conditions were "cowboys" and a commercial pilot friend would "not even consider flying"
I simply do not understand given your experience how you could reach that conclusion. I also do not think it is born out by the facts. There were plenty of other pilots flying, a lot of instructors up with students, and I didnt here a single pilot ask for a weather diversion. Were they all "cowboys"?
With your level of experience are you seriously suggesting there are particular problems avoiding CBs given these conditions? If you are what specific problems do you have in mind and why?
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Wow!
almost 400 hours per year as a PPL - thats some experience! Wish I could afford that - thats almost 10 hours a week - fantastic ! However, guess I will have to stick to my meagre flying.
However, perhaps that just illustrates the point that you have had a massive experience and as the average PPL flys about 15 hours a week then we must urge caution - you are an exception with your mass of experience and we don't want less experienced guys thinking its OK to have a go!
But OK for someone of your experience and skills,
Good luck with the flying!!
almost 400 hours per year as a PPL - thats some experience! Wish I could afford that - thats almost 10 hours a week - fantastic ! However, guess I will have to stick to my meagre flying.
However, perhaps that just illustrates the point that you have had a massive experience and as the average PPL flys about 15 hours a week then we must urge caution - you are an exception with your mass of experience and we don't want less experienced guys thinking its OK to have a go!
But OK for someone of your experience and skills,
Good luck with the flying!!
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Never considered myself to be experianced but I do a good amount of flying. Owning an aircraft and not having to share it certainly helps!
Tommorrow I am off to Alderney for the night and Friday to collect the twin then a weekend in France. I am fairly sure that we might encounter a few storm cells over the course of the week!
Tommorrow I am off to Alderney for the night and Friday to collect the twin then a weekend in France. I am fairly sure that we might encounter a few storm cells over the course of the week!
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It's incredible that this thread has developed into this!
I don't understand those who keep trotting out the irrelevant statement that "the inside of a CB is not a place you want to be". Well, duh! Can somebody explain to me how do you end up inside a CB when the vis is 30km+, the cloudbase is decent and the CBs are isolated? Personally I fly with my eyes open, not shut.
Also, people keep saying "but we do this for fun, so why fly in these conditions?" To which I say: 30km+ visibility is fun. The CBs are miles away from you; just keep it that way and enjoy the lovely conditions!
Regarding the airline captain who said he wouldn't fly in such conditions: The airline pilots I've spoken to fall into two categories. There are those who live, breathe, eat and drink aviation in all its forms and use any excuse to go flying in their spare time; and then there are those who have no interest in flying except as a way of paying the bills. I'd bet that particular captain fell into the latter category, in which case he probably hasn't flown a light aircraft for years - so he's making the right decision not to fly based on his lack of relevant experience.
Jeez... Yes - CBs are dangerous. They're evil buggers - nobody's disputing that. But when you're driving on the roads, the cars coming the other way are dangerous too - but you can see them and avoid them. On a decent day such as the one we're talking about, you can see and avoid the CBs with great ease.
I don't understand those who keep trotting out the irrelevant statement that "the inside of a CB is not a place you want to be". Well, duh! Can somebody explain to me how do you end up inside a CB when the vis is 30km+, the cloudbase is decent and the CBs are isolated? Personally I fly with my eyes open, not shut.
Also, people keep saying "but we do this for fun, so why fly in these conditions?" To which I say: 30km+ visibility is fun. The CBs are miles away from you; just keep it that way and enjoy the lovely conditions!
Regarding the airline captain who said he wouldn't fly in such conditions: The airline pilots I've spoken to fall into two categories. There are those who live, breathe, eat and drink aviation in all its forms and use any excuse to go flying in their spare time; and then there are those who have no interest in flying except as a way of paying the bills. I'd bet that particular captain fell into the latter category, in which case he probably hasn't flown a light aircraft for years - so he's making the right decision not to fly based on his lack of relevant experience.
Jeez... Yes - CBs are dangerous. They're evil buggers - nobody's disputing that. But when you're driving on the roads, the cars coming the other way are dangerous too - but you can see them and avoid them. On a decent day such as the one we're talking about, you can see and avoid the CBs with great ease.
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NikNak,
PROB30 TEMPO is not a very high probability.
TEMPO means a temporary change the total duration of which does not exceed half of the tempo time period.
Prob30 means a 30% chance of.
So to correctly interprete the Cranfield TAF, there are rain showers forecast for a total period of less than 2 hours between 1300z and 1700z which will reduce the visibility to 7km from Cumulo-Nimbus clouds whose bases, at 3000', cover between half and 7/8 of the sky in the vicinity of the airfield. There is a 40% probability (or less than half of these showers) that these showers will reduce the visibility to 4km and be heavy rain showers with thunderstorm and hail.
So you could be looking at one huge cell which closes in for half of the afternoon or, more probably, lots of showers passing through but for not more than 2 hours in total, 15 minutes per cell per hour, perhaps.
Just to confirm and clarify,
PROB TEMPO=Disregard,
TEMPO or PROB30-40 alone, Showery or trancient (TS and SH)= Disregard.
Persistent conditions, haze, mist, fog, precipitation=Applicable, mean wind shall be within limits, disregard gusts.
PROB30 TEMPO is not a very high probability.
TEMPO means a temporary change the total duration of which does not exceed half of the tempo time period.
Prob30 means a 30% chance of.
So to correctly interprete the Cranfield TAF, there are rain showers forecast for a total period of less than 2 hours between 1300z and 1700z which will reduce the visibility to 7km from Cumulo-Nimbus clouds whose bases, at 3000', cover between half and 7/8 of the sky in the vicinity of the airfield. There is a 40% probability (or less than half of these showers) that these showers will reduce the visibility to 4km and be heavy rain showers with thunderstorm and hail.
So you could be looking at one huge cell which closes in for half of the afternoon or, more probably, lots of showers passing through but for not more than 2 hours in total, 15 minutes per cell per hour, perhaps.
Just to confirm and clarify,
PROB TEMPO=Disregard,
TEMPO or PROB30-40 alone, Showery or trancient (TS and SH)= Disregard.
Persistent conditions, haze, mist, fog, precipitation=Applicable, mean wind shall be within limits, disregard gusts.
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Of course you can always use the ADF as a cheap stormscope to point out where those cells are hiding!
An ADF will be affected by nearby CB activity but not in any manner that's predictable enough to be of any use.
Even a WX500 or similar stormscope cannot be relied on for embedded CB penetration. What one can reasonably rely on is that if it IS showing a cluster of strikes, the ride is definitely going to be very rough (done it myself) and that heading is best avoided, and if one can't avoid it then one has to slow right down. But an absence of indication does not mean absence of moderate or severe turbulence. Preferably do this without the bird in the RH seat
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I've been away for a few days and have just read more thoroughly the middle pages. Now for some trouble!
RedNine,
Your mate sounds like the perfect example of why such a lot of airline pilots are such p*ss poor SEP pilots. Many of them maintain SEP priviledges but not currency and suddenly it's a different world sitting alone in a single engined piston aircraft, VFR in uncontrolled airspace. They are used to having everything, all the knobs and whistles, and a sparring partner to match.
Back to that TAF, there's nothing wrong with 7K viz in rain either especially with the base at 3000'. Bumpy perhaps but still legal and often you can see the light on the other side before you go in.
TS you want to avoid, of course. A very conservative rule would be the number of thousands of feet vertical extension is the number of miles away you want to be.
Don't confuse CB and TS; the difference will come to you in a flash.
RedNine,
Your mate sounds like the perfect example of why such a lot of airline pilots are such p*ss poor SEP pilots. Many of them maintain SEP priviledges but not currency and suddenly it's a different world sitting alone in a single engined piston aircraft, VFR in uncontrolled airspace. They are used to having everything, all the knobs and whistles, and a sparring partner to match.
Back to that TAF, there's nothing wrong with 7K viz in rain either especially with the base at 3000'. Bumpy perhaps but still legal and often you can see the light on the other side before you go in.
TS you want to avoid, of course. A very conservative rule would be the number of thousands of feet vertical extension is the number of miles away you want to be.
Don't confuse CB and TS; the difference will come to you in a flash.
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I'm another one who thinks RedNine is wrong-footed on this. Even if you stay on the ground whenever the slightest bit of poor weather is forecast you're still not guaranteed to never meet anything threatening. Forecasts are just best predictions and there will always be occasions when they're wrong. Anyone with a significant amount of hours will have come across unforecast adverse weather.
This is especially true for longer legs or day trips away as the further into the future you look, the less accurate the forecasts become. Local bimblers may be able to avoid bad weather, but I don't believe most PPLs want to just stay in the local area. Look at any European synoptic chart - the further you travel the more likely it is you'll have to contend with the possibility of less than ideal weather. If you want to do a day trip to Le Touquet what are you going to do when a few unforecast isolated CBs start to build up in the afternoon?
It's much better to have thought about these problems beforehand, worked out how to circumvent them safely and preferably built up real experience of doing so - perhaps with the accompaniment of an instructor or a more experienced pilot - than it is to first come across them when you're not expecting them and you're not prepared.
The cowboys in aviation are the ones who stick their heads in the sand and don't think about how to deal with unexpected problems. I don't see how a pilot who is able to safely plan diversions around bad weather and has a number of backup plans they've thought about beforehand can be described in such a way.
This is especially true for longer legs or day trips away as the further into the future you look, the less accurate the forecasts become. Local bimblers may be able to avoid bad weather, but I don't believe most PPLs want to just stay in the local area. Look at any European synoptic chart - the further you travel the more likely it is you'll have to contend with the possibility of less than ideal weather. If you want to do a day trip to Le Touquet what are you going to do when a few unforecast isolated CBs start to build up in the afternoon?
It's much better to have thought about these problems beforehand, worked out how to circumvent them safely and preferably built up real experience of doing so - perhaps with the accompaniment of an instructor or a more experienced pilot - than it is to first come across them when you're not expecting them and you're not prepared.
The cowboys in aviation are the ones who stick their heads in the sand and don't think about how to deal with unexpected problems. I don't see how a pilot who is able to safely plan diversions around bad weather and has a number of backup plans they've thought about beforehand can be described in such a way.
