Cathay to Suspend Pax Flights in May?
Chimbu Chukles might have hit the nail on the head, regarding the media.
Without any more dramatic videos from Iraq, the media must be desperate to attract viewers, whether by innuendo, images of ambulances racing up to hospitals....
Regarding danger, just how many of those anxious business passengers, who might be avoiding flights to the Hong Kong area and other Chinese cities, zig zag their way in the driver's seat through heavy traffic with a cell phone stuck to their heads, whether in Vancouver, Sydney, Dallas (TX) or Gig Harbor (WA)? I rest my case.
Without any more dramatic videos from Iraq, the media must be desperate to attract viewers, whether by innuendo, images of ambulances racing up to hospitals....
Regarding danger, just how many of those anxious business passengers, who might be avoiding flights to the Hong Kong area and other Chinese cities, zig zag their way in the driver's seat through heavy traffic with a cell phone stuck to their heads, whether in Vancouver, Sydney, Dallas (TX) or Gig Harbor (WA)? I rest my case.
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: by the river
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Cathay & SARS
Guys the problems are clear:
It's not the number who die - AIDS, Smoking, Road Kill will still be ahead for a few weeks to come - it's the contageon.
There you are thinking you are fine, just a little cold and light fever maybe... and you talk to your family accross the table, and you stop at the news stand and catch a train to work and spend some toime in the office (with all the colleagues who you talk to, and perhaps go and have lunch somewhere and shop and go home. What is the betting in that possible late incubation phase how many people you can infect - the statistics say each person can infect 40 per day without trying.
Try making a list of all the people who you spoke to face to face who were less that 10 feet from you say 'yesterday' or tuesday of last week... Also note everwhere where you were.... where you might have spat, discarded a tissue, been to the toilet, put cutlery into your mouth.... No can do, correct... Well therein lies your "hidden risks of proliferation at this time.
I'm out of HK since late Friday and in volontary isolation for the next 6+ days... Even then the risks in my environment of passing an infection that is this easy to spread are very high - one has to eat after all and thus come into contact with somebody - either at the supermarket or at home......
Look at the proliferation rates - while authorities are trying to do something (perhaps not that well, but at least some measures have been taken. That's the scare. In the USA they are getting up towards 200 cases - before the end of this month that will be over 1000, perhaps a lot more... That's the real risk...
Grounding the airlines for transportation of all passengers except those who can be "certified to be zero risk" is potentially the only way out to contain this properly... but can our world society live with that .... and not implode.... We will see but a crisis like in the late 20's early 30's is not out of thye question any more.
You may think of me as a pessimist - I would at this time call it a cautious realist.
It's not the number who die - AIDS, Smoking, Road Kill will still be ahead for a few weeks to come - it's the contageon.
There you are thinking you are fine, just a little cold and light fever maybe... and you talk to your family accross the table, and you stop at the news stand and catch a train to work and spend some toime in the office (with all the colleagues who you talk to, and perhaps go and have lunch somewhere and shop and go home. What is the betting in that possible late incubation phase how many people you can infect - the statistics say each person can infect 40 per day without trying.
Try making a list of all the people who you spoke to face to face who were less that 10 feet from you say 'yesterday' or tuesday of last week... Also note everwhere where you were.... where you might have spat, discarded a tissue, been to the toilet, put cutlery into your mouth.... No can do, correct... Well therein lies your "hidden risks of proliferation at this time.
I'm out of HK since late Friday and in volontary isolation for the next 6+ days... Even then the risks in my environment of passing an infection that is this easy to spread are very high - one has to eat after all and thus come into contact with somebody - either at the supermarket or at home......
Look at the proliferation rates - while authorities are trying to do something (perhaps not that well, but at least some measures have been taken. That's the scare. In the USA they are getting up towards 200 cases - before the end of this month that will be over 1000, perhaps a lot more... That's the real risk...
Grounding the airlines for transportation of all passengers except those who can be "certified to be zero risk" is potentially the only way out to contain this properly... but can our world society live with that .... and not implode.... We will see but a crisis like in the late 20's early 30's is not out of thye question any more.
You may think of me as a pessimist - I would at this time call it a cautious realist.
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 471
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Gofer, more histeria. If it were so easy to spread then the infection rates would increase exponentially ie day 1 10 infections, day 2 ...300...day3....3000 etc. Clearly this has not been the case.
News reporters love people like you......and the lemmings line up to follow.
And to answer your question....yes I am in HK.
And as an asside, to all of you out there who are of the same thinking as the previous poster(Chimbu Chuckles) expressing his disgust at the way the media has irresponsibly thrown fuel on this fire......write to them and tell them what a bunch of !@#$% you think they are.....when they realise that it could be their bottom line that suffers due lower subscription rates/lower advertising $ then they will take note. Lets see 10 letters aired on 60 minutes on Sunday night and see a change in their reaction....mine is already in the system and will easily be discounted unless more follow. Then start with the SCMP,NY Times, Guardian, Observer, Asian Wall Street Journal.
Get off your arse or get a job in another industry because this will not stop with just CX and Dragonair....this will decimate the whole industry.
www.sixtyminutes.com.au
Do it now.
News reporters love people like you......and the lemmings line up to follow.
And to answer your question....yes I am in HK.
And as an asside, to all of you out there who are of the same thinking as the previous poster(Chimbu Chuckles) expressing his disgust at the way the media has irresponsibly thrown fuel on this fire......write to them and tell them what a bunch of !@#$% you think they are.....when they realise that it could be their bottom line that suffers due lower subscription rates/lower advertising $ then they will take note. Lets see 10 letters aired on 60 minutes on Sunday night and see a change in their reaction....mine is already in the system and will easily be discounted unless more follow. Then start with the SCMP,NY Times, Guardian, Observer, Asian Wall Street Journal.
Get off your arse or get a job in another industry because this will not stop with just CX and Dragonair....this will decimate the whole industry.
www.sixtyminutes.com.au
Do it now.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Location, Location
Posts: 642
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
On a personal note, I'm going to book my summer hols in the far east - you'll never get better rates than this! We are, after all, talking about a disease that's about as dangerous as (and probably less contagious than) measles.
But from a business perspective, what's going to happen in the (hopefully very unlikely) event that one of your staff returns from HK (or Canada?) with SARS. The government health service will close you down for (at least) a couple of weeks, that's what. Bye-bye disaster recovery plan; bye-bye business. That's why lots of places are already requiring staff who've visited 'at risk' areas to stay at home for two weeks before returning to the office. And that's what's killing business travel.
But from a business perspective, what's going to happen in the (hopefully very unlikely) event that one of your staff returns from HK (or Canada?) with SARS. The government health service will close you down for (at least) a couple of weeks, that's what. Bye-bye disaster recovery plan; bye-bye business. That's why lots of places are already requiring staff who've visited 'at risk' areas to stay at home for two weeks before returning to the office. And that's what's killing business travel.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: somewhere near LTN
Age: 50
Posts: 437
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
not airborn
Gofer - the SARS virus is not airborn so you will have to do a lot more than pop out to the local shop to buy some food to give the guy behind the deli counter SARS.
cheers
FF
cheers
FF
Grandpa Aerotart
I sent this to 60 Minutes on the 14th.
How on earth do you compare the Flu pandemic post WW1, the plague and the current SARS problem.
A couple of hundred people have died! A significant proportion of those people had existing chronic illnesses such as heart disease and respiratory problems and/or were very old...some in their late 70s or early 80s.
And yet Tara Brown can draw comparisons with a period in history, before antiviral drugs were invented and before personal hygiene was identified as a health issue, where 40 Million people died of Flu in approximately 2 years post WW1. Do the math people...that's approximately 55500 people per DAY for 2 years. How does that compare with a few hundred WORLDWIDE over a few months!!!
35000 people die in North America each year from Typical Flu...almost 100/day, ever day, year after year!!!
The media frenzy over a Flu outbreak is sending millions broke in Hong Kong and costing airlines Billions.
WHAT PRICE FREEDOM OF SPEECH??
I dispair at the quality of Journalist these days. They get it wrong far more than they get it right and create panic and uncertainty all in the name of ratings. The war in Iraq is yet another example...Govts need to look at Media Laws to save the free world from the CNN effect.
I note tonight on ABC News that a WHO Representative was worried that the Chinese Govt had underquoted the possible number of cases and that it could be as high as "100 or 200"
Sure sounds worrying to me.
He also stated that it was essential for China to lift it's game so that when a real crisis comes in the future they will be prepared.
Anyone would think the WHO was dependant on Govt funding
Chuck
How on earth do you compare the Flu pandemic post WW1, the plague and the current SARS problem.
A couple of hundred people have died! A significant proportion of those people had existing chronic illnesses such as heart disease and respiratory problems and/or were very old...some in their late 70s or early 80s.
And yet Tara Brown can draw comparisons with a period in history, before antiviral drugs were invented and before personal hygiene was identified as a health issue, where 40 Million people died of Flu in approximately 2 years post WW1. Do the math people...that's approximately 55500 people per DAY for 2 years. How does that compare with a few hundred WORLDWIDE over a few months!!!
35000 people die in North America each year from Typical Flu...almost 100/day, ever day, year after year!!!
The media frenzy over a Flu outbreak is sending millions broke in Hong Kong and costing airlines Billions.
WHAT PRICE FREEDOM OF SPEECH??
I dispair at the quality of Journalist these days. They get it wrong far more than they get it right and create panic and uncertainty all in the name of ratings. The war in Iraq is yet another example...Govts need to look at Media Laws to save the free world from the CNN effect.
I note tonight on ABC News that a WHO Representative was worried that the Chinese Govt had underquoted the possible number of cases and that it could be as high as "100 or 200"
Sure sounds worrying to me.He also stated that it was essential for China to lift it's game so that when a real crisis comes in the future they will be prepared.
Anyone would think the WHO was dependant on Govt funding
Chuck
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: by the river
Posts: 431
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
FF, FW & PV
FF
Sorry for my incorrect use of airborn - I should of course have said postillion and contact contageous. The initial precautionless spread of SARS in the early stages in HK - coughing in lifts etc. - seems to me to indicate that there is just a little logic in the use of masks, especially if you are a potential carrier.
FW
Sorry that you didn't approve of my expression of a risk... Life is full of risks, until one of them gets you... Then you are just a statistic. The fact that actions have been taken indicates, at least to me, that we could well have had a much more serious situation if actions had not been taken.
And yes I know that that sounds like the journalistic description of an aircraft on approach having "almost crashed", until luckily the pilot managed to land the aircraft in time. And yes I too get frustrated at a lot of the current style of journalism - but what do you expect if they have to compete with an on-line war.
PV
Absolutely right - holidays in the Far East will this year be the economic delight for those smart enough to take the opportunity, once the SARS outbreak is contained - Could already be the case for Vietnam and Singapore by the looks of things.
Sorry for my incorrect use of airborn - I should of course have said postillion and contact contageous. The initial precautionless spread of SARS in the early stages in HK - coughing in lifts etc. - seems to me to indicate that there is just a little logic in the use of masks, especially if you are a potential carrier.FW
Sorry that you didn't approve of my expression of a risk... Life is full of risks, until one of them gets you... Then you are just a statistic. The fact that actions have been taken indicates, at least to me, that we could well have had a much more serious situation if actions had not been taken.And yes I know that that sounds like the journalistic description of an aircraft on approach having "almost crashed", until luckily the pilot managed to land the aircraft in time. And yes I too get frustrated at a lot of the current style of journalism - but what do you expect if they have to compete with an on-line war.
PV
Absolutely right - holidays in the Far East will this year be the economic delight for those smart enough to take the opportunity, once the SARS outbreak is contained - Could already be the case for Vietnam and Singapore by the looks of things.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: He's on the limb to nowhere
Posts: 1,981
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Glad to see people like christep are looking at this threat using the evidence available at the time, showing understanding of what "risk" is, and not being alarmist like some.
Nothing wrong with opinions, but they should be identified as such. Newspaper reports are pretty much opinions, IMO of course
Here is an well thought out editorial that comes from a decent scientific journal, i.e. doesn't have to sell copies based upon heresay, rumour, punchy headlines, horoscopes and pictures of girlies with no tops on (not that I'm complaining about that )
New Scientist - Silence is Fatal
Nothing wrong with opinions, but they should be identified as such. Newspaper reports are pretty much opinions, IMO of course
Here is an well thought out editorial that comes from a decent scientific journal, i.e. doesn't have to sell copies based upon heresay, rumour, punchy headlines, horoscopes and pictures of girlies with no tops on (not that I'm complaining about that )New Scientist - Silence is Fatal
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 606
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Thanks for the compliment Slim_Slag.
I am keeping my site http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/ updated.
Today we saw the second consecutive day where the net number of people being treated in hospitals in HK for SARS (and the number in Intensive Care) decreased.
I am keeping my site http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/ updated.
Today we saw the second consecutive day where the net number of people being treated in hospitals in HK for SARS (and the number in Intensive Care) decreased.
Eight Gun Fighter
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Western Approaches
Posts: 1,126
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The good news
Identified as a coronavirus mutant of the common cold.
Bad News...
There is no cure for the common cold.
CX bookings down to 30% loads. ETC.
Some HKG hotels at single digit occupancy.
Toronto and Vancouver hotel bookings down 50%.
The largest ER (A&E - Brit translation) hospital in YYZ considering total Quarantine - second hospital to do so. Surgical mask makers reap fortune. Airlines adjusting recirculated air in-flight. Some. Pax health checks on departure and arrival.
Worse than Iraq?
Bad News...
There is no cure for the common cold.
CX bookings down to 30% loads. ETC.
Some HKG hotels at single digit occupancy.
Toronto and Vancouver hotel bookings down 50%.
The largest ER (A&E - Brit translation) hospital in YYZ considering total Quarantine - second hospital to do so. Surgical mask makers reap fortune. Airlines adjusting recirculated air in-flight. Some. Pax health checks on departure and arrival.
Worse than Iraq?
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 606
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Good news
For the third day running the total number of people being treated in hospital in HK for SARS decreased. 409 people have now recovered and been discharged.
Full details (now with graphical summary) at http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/
For the third day running the total number of people being treated in hospital in HK for SARS decreased. 409 people have now recovered and been discharged.
Full details (now with graphical summary) at http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/
Guest
Posts: n/a
What I can't understand about this is that people have arrived from the far east to the UK, Canada etc. and they have been diagnosed with this SARS virus but we aren't seeing clusters of people suffering from SARS who came into contact with them.
Maybe the climate in Canada or the UK doesn't suit the virus?
Maybe the climate in Canada or the UK doesn't suit the virus?
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 606
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That's a ludicrous comment. The level of personal hygiene in HK is at least as high as anywhere else I have lived (including UK, Germany, Belgium, Russia, Taiwan, Sweden).
However, on the other hand, the attitude towards environmental cleanliness is a cause for concern.
But the most likely explanation as I see it is that the virus suffers from a high degree of attenuation. In other words, as it passes through each generation of transmission its virulence decreases significantly.
However, on the other hand, the attitude towards environmental cleanliness is a cause for concern.
But the most likely explanation as I see it is that the virus suffers from a high degree of attenuation. In other words, as it passes through each generation of transmission its virulence decreases significantly.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: He's on the limb to nowhere
Posts: 1,981
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
christep,
for a non medic, you have a high degree of understanding. Singapore is the also the most boringly-clean place I can think of, but they have more cases than most.
for a non medic, you have a high degree of understanding. Singapore is the also the most boringly-clean place I can think of, but they have more cases than most.
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Middlesesx
Posts: 2,075
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dog eat dog
There are bright spots to many of lifes upsets. Many Airline Corporate HQ's will view CX's situation with mild satisfaction as it will reduce competition even further. Others can only benefit from CX's misfortune and as one of us said in an early thread it will permit CX to restructure if the situation does not improve soon. A scenario welcomed in corporate HQ's may be CX's.
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: alaska
Posts: 78
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This SARS IS AN AMERICAN CIA PLOT
Look guys dont get too worked up about SARS. As long as u are in the west u will never get it. Only the Chinese in the west will get it.
This is a CIA american plot to deviate the worlds attention from the war so the world does not ask questions like
"HAT HAPPENED TO THOSE CHEMICAL WEAPONS THE AMERICANS WERE LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ, AND THE PROOF THEY SHOWED TO THE UN TO JUSTIFY ATTACKING IRAQ"
Its just a plot by CIA,just like they light up forest fires around the world to destroy asian economies as well as get cows mad to call it Mad cow disease so Europeans and the world only buys their beef!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THINK ABOUT IT GUYS
DONT LET THE AMERICANS FOOOL YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a CIA american plot to deviate the worlds attention from the war so the world does not ask questions like
"HAT HAPPENED TO THOSE CHEMICAL WEAPONS THE AMERICANS WERE LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ, AND THE PROOF THEY SHOWED TO THE UN TO JUSTIFY ATTACKING IRAQ"
Its just a plot by CIA,just like they light up forest fires around the world to destroy asian economies as well as get cows mad to call it Mad cow disease so Europeans and the world only buys their beef!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THINK ABOUT IT GUYS
DONT LET THE AMERICANS FOOOL YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Location, Location
Posts: 642
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Identical post from wilco77 on the other SARS thread - I echo the request made to modbods there to remove it. My personal spam filter throws anything with more than two consecutive exclamation marks straight into the bin (works for me 
).
).
