BA - best time to buy ahead?

[Alsacienne]

In the light of the past few months I felt a shiver when I typed my title. But let's grasp the nettle. My niece is getting married abroad on New Year's Eve 2011.

Christmas/New Year is obviously a peak season for ticket prices but are there any 'cheaper days' than others in the period 26 - 30 December and when after New Year do the tickets generally drop to more reasonable levels?

Once ticket prices are released ... ie Jan 2011, are the prices likely to be at their cheapest to start with or will they fluctuate as time gets nearer to the date of travel?

Thanks in advance for advice and help ... oh and the country concerned is Kenya.

[ExXB]

Also, I doubt if BA will accept bookings more than (I'm guessing) 340 days in advance (of the last flight in your itinerary). Most network airlines limit this to something between 320~360 days. Fares that are quoted then will be 'guaranteed' provided you pay in full and don't change your first international flight dates/times.

So your flights should be bookable by early Feb. Should fares go down (or if fuel surcharges go down) don't expect BA to ring you up and offer a refund. On the other hand if the fare/surcharge goes up, they won't come looking for more money.

[k3lvc]

On the other hand if the fare/surcharge goes up, they won't come looking for more money

IIRC on one of the last occasions of either fuel or APD increases they (and many other airlines) applied this retrospectively

[ExXB]

That, I believe was APD - rather than do something sensible like saying this increase will apply to all tickets bought from today ... they said this increase applies to all tickets for all travel on/after 1 November. Result - disaster at check-in with the airline trying to recoup some of the money they were going to have to pay. IIRC BA absorbed the substantial increase, but others did not.

[Ancient Observer]

My experience is that web-sites are not always honest about the available fares. Keep checking with the consolidators and discounters.
Think of other decent airlines that fly where you want to go.

[PAXboy]

The problem, Alsacienne, is that whenever you book - someone else will get it cheaper! Firstly, BA will change their pricing every day if they think they will get an advantage or even by the hour. Their pricing changes depend upon bookings for the specific flight/day/week/month/route AND what the competition are doing and charging. Since we can look at all the competitors - so can they. Other factors include promotions that are global or specific, if there is a big festival or sporting event that coincides with your dates and so the list goes on.

If travelling within the correct margin of days is more important than not going - then you book as soon as you think the price is one that you can accept. After that, ignore that the prices will go up and down, just be glad that you are travelling when you want to where you want. The specialised software called, Yield Management, is far faster and smarter than we are.

[Alsacienne]

Thanks so much everyone for your input so far! I am aware that I am well in advance of the actual booking period, and have been trying to monitor what's happening at the appropriate times this year ...

Unfortunately I am a bit stuck with being at a relative outstation - BSL - and BA seems to be my best option for a one-stop flight ... unless I am lucky enough to get FRA-AMS-NBO with Kenyan or SXB-CDG-NBO with AF (or if unlucky with AF, being routed via MRS, LYS or even AMS as well!!).

Thanks again, and please keep helpful information coming. Sometimes yield management has its uses, but never seen it apply directly to legacy carrier flights ... though I'm sure you'll all point out to me appropriate instances!

[PAXboy]

To wind up my contribution here is a quick example that ANY carrier will use. All examples are theoretical and in round numbers for example only. Bear in mind that all of these rules are set into the computer program before the first ticket goes on sale. (in no order) Flight is a daily, LH, single sector:

• 300 seats every day.
• By six months before departure, expect to see 150 sold. Raise price slightly.
• This year, by six months, 250 are sold and most have been in blocks. A sports event? Concert? Or just a VERY big wedding? Since we know that this flight usually departs 99% capacity, raise prices steeply due to great demand.
• By three months before, 100 have cancelled so now more capacity that must be filled, drop prices and suggest a promotion.

OK, rudimentary but that's the basics and the program may have 20 rules that it uses to raise and lower prices. Whilst, as a rule, the price goes steadily upwards, it is not always the case these days.

[Ancient Observer]

Google "the best time to buy an airline ticket".
Lots of interesting stuff there - but watch it as some of the research is over 2 years old.

[CornishFlyer]

BA have just launched their sale so take a look now-would probably as good a time as any to book

[Timothy Claypole]

If you don't mind flying out on Christmas day you may not get a cheap seat but there'll be plenty of space on the aircraft! Return prices will drop slightly when the UK school holidays end, which ought to be some time in the first week of Jan.

[MPN11]

This morning we booked UK>USA for next April, using Miles for Upgrade.

Normal WT+ fare is around £950. In the sale it came down to £643. When we booked [on the telephone with BA Club] it came out at £628 ... for which price we will be in Club.

They don't get much cheaper than that, and Reward availability will inevitably disappear over the next few weeks/months.

[Alsacienne]

Again many thanks for all the helpful comments.

BA have just launched their sale so take a look now-would probably as good a time as any to book

Sadly I can't ... or at least not this year because the wedding is December 2011 and seats for this period aren't bookable yet! But a good idea, and I'll keep an eye on possible BA sales during the first few months of 2011. Thanks!

[Rusland 17]

Originally Posted by Timothy Claypole

If you don't mind flying out on Christmas day you may not get a cheap seat but there'll be plenty of space on the aircraft!

Not necessarily true, and certainly not on BA to popular destinations. I've flown BA on Christmas Day three times in the past five years (to Bangkok, New York and Los Angeles) and in each case the aircraft was very full indeed.

[Capetonian]

BA's booking horizon is 354 days. Other than that, there's nothing I can add to the sound advice others have given you except that the lowest BA published fare from your area is from STR and with taxes, assuming that fares are maintained at current levels, that would be EUR 513.

[Mark in CA]

Eight week rule

Seems eight weeks prior is the low-fare sweet spot in many instances, but not all:

When to buy airline tickets: The eight-week rule | The Economist

and

Why ?A = gUG + min(k-g, (1-g)(1-r)) equals low airline fares | World news | The Observer

I have personally flown long haul flight to Asia on Christmas day, and found that to be a good date to fly. Even got a complimentary upgrade one time.

There are other web sites that attempt to predict whether airfares will increase or decrease in the future.

The Microsoft search site, Bing, uses "farecast technoloyg" to predict trends:

Cheap flights, hotels, destinations - Bing Travel

There are others.

In general, I've found Tuesdays and Wednesdays have the lowest fares. This was true the other day when I booked a flight on DLH to BUD for October (about eight weeks in advance).

[Hartington]

I want to knock one idea on the head. You CAN book a round trip on the day that booking opens for your outward. You do NOT have to wait until the return date arrives.

Think about it. On UK to Australia routes fares have a 1 year validity but require advance purchase. That means you can go London to Sydney on 27th December 2010 (for which booking is already open) and return 26th December 2011 (for which booking is not yet open). What do the airlines do? They make your outward booking and then put a note and a time limit in the booking for the return flight. When the time limit expires (it gets set for the date bookings open) they make the booking and confirm it to you. I've never done it with BA (I know others who have) but I have done it with Air NZ (indeed mine was even more complex - I made a LHR/HKG booking the day they opened) and then wanted HKG/AKL 4 days later, AKL/SFO two months after arrival in AKL and LAX/LHR 11 days after arrival in SFO. The lad who did it for me had to go and ask but it worked a treat.

As for the cheapest days you need to think when people will want to travel and then pick a different day. Not only when people from your starting point but from change over points and people going home to the destination. You can't factor in things like private parties but school holidays, public holidays, religous festivals etc you can research and take account of. The days people do NOT want to travel are most likely the cheaper ones (e.g Friday 13th). Easy for me to explain, difficult for you to implement.