A380 - Commercial Failure?

[BahrainLad]

Then whore it: 800 passengers crammed in two decks; a skeleton crew; Bathroom lines that run the length of the aircraft, with half the loos out of service before the whale burns off enough fuel to hit cruising altitude.

This would presumably be after United orders it then?

Air travel worldwide isn't all as bad as that which is found in the 50 states; try flying a proper airline for a change.

[ironbutt57]

Sounds like the Monarch version to me....

[Che Xindamail]

Be it Dubya, or other factors such as 911, the rhetoric out of the US has become more nationalistic and patriotic in the past few years. Being in the midst of all this nationalism, I dont' think Americans quite see it the way many of us do.

Because of this, I tend to take "expert" opinions with a pinch of salt, and don't underestimate the propaganda value of "twisting" the message in favor of Boeing, or any other company for that matter.

It may be that Boeing is absolutely correct in their judgement, and time will tell. I never had the experience of Boeings, but I had great pleasure in flying DC9s and MD80s as well as all different types of Airbuses. For a purely enjoyable flying experience I take a Douglas Aircraft anytime. I think one of the great shames in recent aviation history is the demise of Douglas, so I am not flag stomping but maybe just a bit more sceptical than others, Mr Butt.

[mattredd]

A huge barometer test would be the CX order because this will be the first A380 vs. 747a order. And if Airbus do win it, it puts the 747a into doubt as CX is probably a key customer for the 747a.

[MarkD]

So you own some 747-300s and you're upgrading but not to 744:

You can buy 787s and reduce Y, moving upmarket - kind of what AC is doing.

You can buy 2 x 787 and request more slots. If you operate to LHR, JFK, LAX etc. good luck with that.

You can buy an A380-800/900 and pile 'em high, sell 'em cheap - i.e. Emirates.

*all* of these are valid business models if you can make them work, depending on landing fees, loadies, gate fees, noise abatement, slots, crew cross-qual from 7x7/A3xx etc.

I prefer to observe A380 like Chou En Lai's verdict on the French Revolution - "it's too soon to tell".

[Wino]

When you start comparing forecasts for market sizes you guys are all forgetting something.

Airbus's launch aid tends to be structured in such a way that they don't have to start repaying loans untill X number of aircraft are sold. Therefore it is in their best interest to claim that they will sell 1000 airplanes and then only really sell 300. Then they don't have to pay the money back.

Boeing has to start paying interest on the money immediately and has to start servicing their debt immediately, so they have to get their prediction EXACTLY right or else they are out of business (which is what happened to Douglas and Lockheed before that)

So that is why Airbus's make wild pie in the sky predictions of howmany airplanes they will sell. It is their way of pushing back the date at which they have to start paying back money.

Cheers
Wino

[V1 Rotate]

I pax around the world quite a bit. All I want is to get from A to B as quickly and as hassle free as possible. I am not interested in massive lines and horrific delays.
There is nothing wrong with the A380 as an aeroplane. But the immigration, security and ground handling unions have no interest in promoting the Frech aircraft industry.
Sometimes I have waited for an hour and a half to get through US customs and immigration having arrived on a 777. I can see that the lines will last for 3-4 hours when an airport is confronted with 600+ pax in one go.
What will happen if 3 or 4 of these things arrive at the same airport at the same time?
Another point is how will busy places like LAX and DFW handle the traffic spacing? Surely they will need about 25 miles for vortice dissipation.
V1

[norodnik]

of course, some places (like LHR/LGW) have very little airport space available.

How many times do you have to wait ages to get into T4 because of some or other delay.

Given that the A380 is there to cater for growth, the number of movements is not going to decline. Therefore, where are they all going to fit ?I would imagine you get 4 380's in the space of 5 747's

Building new terminals is very expensive, if you don't want to do that, then you have to park it on a remote and bus the pax's, ummm anyone like the sound of that ???

I think the A380 will do ok. Airbus, though, have a bad track record of selling 4 engined long haulers so maybe they'll fail here as well. I think if they get to sell 500 it will be seen as a sucess (and if not, then there will be some large A380 airport restaurants at places you've never heard of!!)

[panda-k-bear]

Do you know what's really, really interesting? To take a look back at the market forecasts issued by Boeing over the last, ooh, 7 to 8 years. Just get hold of them and look at them. And watch how, as Airbus moved forward with the A3XX and the A380, after the point at which Boeing decided to let Airbus go it alone (don't forget - there were proposals to work together on this project in the early days), the Boeing forecast began to show a steady decline in demand for 500 seat and greater aircraft.

It's very interesting how Boeing have carefully manipulated their numbers to try and support their fragmentation argument over time. Very interesting indeed.

A few years ago, I swallowed their market forecasts - as has been hinted here, it was a Bible. They soon realised that and manipulated it.

I'm sure brand A do the same sorts of thing but they're figures in that market have been far more constant - and consistent with the earlier Boeing figures.

[ExSimGuy]

Its Engines? No, still a JetA guzzling 4 holer

And what's wrong with a 4-holer?

Even after listening to Rolls-Royce lectures on the statistical failure probabilities of modern jet engines, I still feel just a bit safer in a 4 than a 2.

Is it 'cos I'm getting old? I remember an incident in Nigel-Land when a captain was "repremanded" for carrying on to UK after losing a donkey on climb-out from Athens. What aircraft was it? An SVC-10! That thing could lose both Conways on the same side way before V1, and still climb out almost as fast as a Lightning! No trimming the nose "barely upward" on that one like you'd have to do with a 707 or 747. I think the captain concerned said that "he'd start looking for an alternate if he lost another one".

And from the ScareBus figures, it doesn't look as if it's going to be a "guzzler" either (unfortunately, the reason for the VC-10's demise )

I'd rather have "Rule Britannia", but if even USA can't support 3 major aircraft manufacturers, the I guess us Brits will have to settle for "Rule Europa"

And anyway - how would you get enough thrust to lift the 380 off the ground with just 2 engines? RR and GE just don't make them that big

[Globaliser]

V1 Rotate: Sometimes I have waited for an hour and a half to get through US customs and immigration having arrived on a 777. I can see that the lines will last for 3-4 hours when an airport is confronted with 600+ pax in one go.

What will happen if 3 or 4 of these things arrive at the same airport at the same time?

I can't believe the number of times I see this sort of thing being said.

The type of airport which the A380 is likely to serve is exemplified by LHR. Go out there at 5 am and see what's arrives in the first couple of hours. It's 747 after 747, and other widebodies whose capacity is of the same order of magnitude. Each of the terminals swallows 3, 4, 5 or more aircraft loads at once as it is.

[Pax Vobiscum]

Today's Economist (Airbus and Boeing) has an interesting article on this topic. It points out that A380m orders have been 'stuck' at the 150-mark for some time.

Quote:

Unless Airbus can soon unveil some new orders for the A380, possibly at the Paris air show in June, scepticism will grow that the €12 billion ($15.7 billion) project will never earn a profit. Airbus needs to sell around 500 (out of its target sales of 700 over 20 years) to earn a real return on the investment.

Endquote

[Sunfish]

Thank you all for your comments. I would like to make a couple of points, that I will try and do a little less flippantly than my original post.

To those who say who cares? Two 747's arriving at the same time will create similar congestion, you are correct.

But Boeings dreamliner solution appears to have the capacity to AVOID flying to such airports by its city to city pairing idea.

I live in Melbourne, we will be ready for SQ's A380's before anyone else in Australia.

My real concern has been the ongoing economic effects of QF's hubbing strategy based around Sydney and its overall tight control of capacity that in my opinion is hurting every other city in Australia. The Boeing solution seems to address this.

[Gouabafla]

When I fly, I really want to be in a private Lear Jet and to arrive at small airports with no queues for customs etc. Unfortunately, I live in the real world and my company (I work for a charity) requires me to keep a very tight rein on my travel budget. No, I don't want to be in a huge metal tube with all those extra people and I don't want to stand in line for hours to get on and off said tube - but if it's cheap and the routing fits my needs, then I'll do it. The particular aircraft just doesn't figure into the equation when I buy my ticket and I suspect I'm not alone.

[MarkD]

Wino

Incorrect on the launch aid. A380 launch aid must be repaid 17 years from launch under WTO rules. So sez the Boeing funded study on the 380 that got everyone in such a flap recently.

You are possibly thinking of the money per frame Airbus paid on the 320s perhaps?

[Globaliser]

Sunfish: But Boeings dreamliner solution appears to have the capacity to AVOID flying to such airports by its city to city pairing idea.

This theory is great for some areas, but as far as I can see not the areas and routes where the 380 is most likely to be used. One or both ends of the route is movement-constrained and/or the route between the ends is heavily congested and also movement-constrained. The former speak for themselves, and for the latter, take as an example the ever-more exotic routings that are being opened up between the Far East and Europe. It was not that long ago that if you missed your slot ex-Hong Kong for London, you could commonly expect a 45 or 90 minute delay waiting for the next available slot to fly over southern China.