So one of three things has happened: cargo flight = too heavy to get airborne; EFAT "dead man's turn" (might explain witness statements about "spinning" aircraft and why they were looking for him out over water); somatogravic illusion = nose down instead of up.

Any other theories?

Oh dear. My wife is friends with his fiancée.

EFAT and a turn back would sound more plausible for a single engine acft but I thought it was a seneca. A failure of an engine and flight below Vmca may induce the spin as shown in a couple of You tube videos shown on other threads.
Making theories about overweight takeoffs are a little unwarranted until the investigation has been conducted, at this stage it's about reflecting the loss of another young pilot killed striving for his goals in life and another family grieving for their loss.

Theory
 

Firstly - Sad news today and everyone I am sure has their thoughts for this young mans family and friends - and the operators at GEA.

In response to Virtually There: "cargo flight = too heavy to get airborne; EFAT "dead man's turn" (might explain witness statements about "spinning" aircraft and why they were looking for him out over water); somatogravic illusion = nose down instead of up"

Let me see if I can offer something

1 - Cargo flight too heavy - That run leaves Broome with about 20 to 50 kgs of freight it would never be anywhere near MTOW on Dep at BRM.

2- Somatogravic illusion - I would suggest no. I have departed BRM RWY 28 at night and I got it once, I actually had to talk to myself out aloud as I climbed away the feeling was very strong and I can see why pilots have died in the past. But the photos of the wreckage don't seem to support this.

3- EFATO - I would say most likely. The photos show the left engine (separated from the mounts) with one of the blades undamaged, this could indicate that the blade wasn't spinning at the time of impact - However the blade doesn't appear to be feathered.

The nose of the aircraft is facing East not to the West. This would also support the aircraft spinning in. The aircraft seems to be in a very small location indicating it wasn't at a shallow body angle on impact.

HOWEVER - all this is speculation and the ATSB will do their job and work out why this young man paid a very heavy price for doing something we all love.

Many People that have worked for that lot are getting a sickening feeling.

Let's hope that KR has his ducks in a line for this one.

Condolences to family and friends.

The aircraft has certainly done that trip many times before recently so it makes you think that the pilot was more than capable assuming he was a regular.

FlightAware > VH-LCK

Some pictures here:

Plane wreck found at Cable Beach, one dead - The West Australian

Flew that aircraft for a few years on freight runs. -
I sincerely hope that this tragedy was just an unfortunate accident.

Sad day for a fellow aviator and his family.

The lack of any post-impact fire seems suspicious, as one would expect the aircraft would have had at least a modest fuel load for the trip he'd just commenced?
He's barely made it off the runway, he just cleared Gubinge Rd and then speared into the dunes just short of the beach.
He made perhaps barely 2000' from runway end, and one could well imagine he had no height to play with, when things went pear-shaped.
The damage appears to indicate impact was with wings at 90 deg to the ground. Thus perhaps, the reason for the relatively undamaged prop, as it could have been on the high side at impact. However, a relatively undamaged prop is always an ominous sign.

Updated news story here. As I said my wife is friends with his fiancee.

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Perhaps the fact that it ended up on a sand dune has something to do with it - no fuel pooling - less chance of fire ignition and sustaining?

TB :sad:

Your point?

My point being my wife has personal involvement and was on the phone with her last night so we knew who the pilot was before the newspapers. So Im subscribed to this thread to see if any insights to the crash.

Fascinating..........

You're unlikely to find any 'insights' into the crash on pprune. This isn't the ATSB. That report will be out in approximately 12-18 months.

Re-enforcing the fact that your wife knows the gentlemens fiancé is also not of interest.

morno

No need to be harsh. He's up close to it and in his own way he's doing some grieving.

You guys (GG, Tuna, morno) are unbelievable. Leave the poor fellow alone.

Hmm. How credible are ANY witness reports? To be "taken with a pinch of salt" would be the appropriate answer.

To give another angle on the credibility of the "witnesses", consider that the searchers spent hours -due to "witness" accounts - looking in the water, when the wreckage could have been found much earlier.

It is also the case that an Aerorescue DO328 was despatched from Darwin to aid the water search.

The search authorities should have known better than to have placed so much store in "witness" reports.

As I understand it, those "witnesses" were on the beach attending the concert. It is quite possible that they were approached by authorities asking whether they "had seen a small aircraft takeoff then crash into the sea".

If asked in this way, then of course some people will think they are witnesses and proceed to describe the thing they are being asked about! These people aren't being dishonest, they are just exhibiting normal human failings when it comes to being a witness.

Go easy on the guy Morno and TunaBum. He is part of the personal story. PPRUNE threads on accidents often feature aspects of the human side.

..........indeed a sad event & no doubt will effect a few in different way. It is a shame that some in here seem to thrive on others sensitivities though.

From my limited knowledge of the 'Sneca' (about 100hrs on type ) it appears to be a 'Sneca' 1 which if I recall wasn't too flash in the SE performance side of things & prolly had a poor VMCA speed,something that any of us could get caught with under similar conditions. Was it a rudder issue as far as x-wind goes as well?
Lets hope that something can be learnt from this poor chaps demise, it's such a crying shame to see someone get taken early from something that they love,flying:-(

RIP fellow aviator

Wmk2

FGD135,
Your comments re reliability of witness statements are very true.

Most witness accounts are usually grossly in error or pure fiction, often to events that are seen on a bright sunny day right in front of people at close range, eg a traffic accident.

When it comes to aviation accidents the reliability is usually even worse.
How many times have we all heard witness statements,usually on TV interviews from members of the public about, "the engine was missing , running rough, sounded funny etc as the plane went over" or " it was spinning down etc", or " the plane plummeted a 1000 feet" etc about countless accidents .
Later the investigations often reveal none of those witness claims about whatever were even remotely correct.
Most of the public are totally ignorant of anything to do with aviation or aircraft or their operation, normal or otherwise.

"The search authorities should have known better than to have placed so much store in "witness" reports".

You are right, unless someone actually saw the aircraft clearly come down in the water right in front of them just off the beach, (Hard to do on a dark, moonless night) that assumption based on some vague wild guess statement should never have been made.
Given the thin strip of land between the end of runway and the coast the more logical course of action would have been to start the search from the end of runway and fan out in an expanding arc to the coast at the same time as maybe sending out a few small boats into the water.
Had more people been on the aircraft and possibly survived the impact the time taken to find the wreckage due to looking only offshore initially would have sealed their fate.

As Wally said- RIP to a fellow aviator.

We all know ignorant "most" people are about anything to with aviation in general and particularly on "death-trap light planes..".

Take this little gem of reporting on witnesses...

"Witnesses have said they heard that the engines, or an engine, wasn't running properly and shortly after that there was a thud," Acting Supt Frank Audas said.

One witness believes the engine stalled on take-off, leaving Mr Gaffney with no time to recover."

:ugh:

RIP to a fellow aviator....