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Pilot shortage coming or Not??
Do people think that there is a massive increase in demand for crew coming or as we come out of this recession that airlines will be more cautious with recruitment? I first thought that recruitment might pick up where it left off before the GFC, but not sure now. Airlines are recruiting, but will we get to the point where we see a shortage??
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but will we get to the point where we see a shortage?? |
The pilot shortage is a myth, it always was and always will be.
The only shortage you might see is in certain markets( CRJ FO's in China) for certain crew members but that in it's self does not constitute a shortage. Don't believe what the training outfits tell you, they just want to get you in the door and hand over your cash. |
As stated, there has never been and probably never will be a shortage of pilots in Australia, at least not at the lower experience levels. There are occasionally gaps in the regionals when a large number of captains get hired during expansion times for the big boys, but these are positions you need relevant experience to fill, and if that experience isnt available locally will be filled using work visas (think Qlink awhile back)
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Shortage of people who can easily transition into the specific job, whose qualifications and experience are a good match to the requirements, who will perform well and be suitable for promotion. YES
Shortage of unsuitable people, those with the absolute minimum requirements who will require extensive training, have a high failure rate and be unsuitable for promotion (ie bums on seats) NO |
Pilot shortage = Nigerian Get rich Quick Scam. There's a reason those Nigerian scams keep coming to your e-mail in box, that's because there is always some sucker out there that believes it and gets taken for his life savings. Same goes for the pilot shortage scam that most flight training units spout off about.
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Some of you impatient up and coming pilots better hope Australia doesn't keep following the example of the USA
The Senate has approved an amendment to the FAA reauthorization bill that would boost required flight experience for new airline co-pilots to 800 hours, up from the current standard of 250 hours. Some airline safety advocates had been pushing for a 1,500-hour limit, but Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., the amendment's sponsor, said he simply "didn't have the votes" for such a drastic increase. Hmmmm, you might need to fly Chieftains or 402's for a while. |
Regarding the RFDS lowering their minimums below 2500 hours, that is still pretty low considering the demanding type of work they do.
It dosen't seem that long ago that nobody would let you near any sort of turbine below 5,000 hours. |
CW,
I think that if you check again you will find that our American friends have legislated for 1,500 hours to be the minimum for RPT new-hires. R16 |
'A37575' don't be too quick to say such things. True once upon a time the RFDS could pick & choose pilots with hrs like what CC said (5000) but those days are long gone as pilots of that caliber are shining the seats of the big birds these days with a LOT less.
A lot of the specific hr requirements of the RFDS comes from a contractual requirement not their own in house req's. We have CV's that you can't climb over but few are 'suitable' at the end of the day. So in some ways yes there is a pilot shortage re our req's but generally now that the Airlines take very green pilots (as compared to many years ago) there are more pilots than jobs ATM. 'CC' is right once upon a time you couldn't go near a Turbine with less than a zillion hrs or even a PA31 for that matter but we have now much lower stsd's than days gone by for good or bad. 'CC' a lot of candidates whom come from GA that make it to the Sim level of the RFDS interview process fail because most fly under 'normal' conditions IE: day to day routine stuff with virtually no checking at Sim level that goes on for years so when they are faced with an Eng failure under a high work load situation in the Sim which I might add is a hand full anyway they fall over & bomb out. Basic IF skills as in on the dials with zero outside ref & rudimentary instrumentation is damn hard work! Anyway there will always be a pilot shortage just depends on what level the bar is set:) Wmk2 |
r16, the legislation originally called for 1,500 hours but an amendment went through reducing it to 800 hours.
Hardly relevant in Oz where anyone going into the regionals will have more time than that. Contrary to most here I do think there will be a pilot shortage. Perhaps not in the next year or two but certainly in 5 to 10. The number of fanatics wanting to do pilot training as a career option is declining. The profession is no longer regarded as being desirable and the concept of spending vast amounts of money to be rewarded with a miserable income in some fly-blown corner of the country for a year or two while attaining the minimum experience for an airline job where the T & Cs' are being eroded constantly is rapidly losing any attraction for the modern generation. There will always be those who are fascinated by flight and will put up with the conditions but I believe there numbers are declining below what the airlines will need in the future. Then look for changes in the way Oz pilots are trained for the airlines. I suspect it will change to resemble the European model with airline type training schools and MCPL training. |
Pilot shortages?
Depends on what your definition of shortage is. If you refer to pilots requiring "5000 hrs" to get near a turbine and other such historical (employer/insurance) experience requirements, then posssibly. If you refer to the number of pilots who meet the legal minimums as set out for the issue of a licence and to fill a crew seat, then never. In all reality ask yourself: Do pilots still pay for type ratings? If you can answer yes, then clearly theres no shortage. Is this likely to change? No. |
Maybe not in Australia. but a common phenomenon in Europe. 1987 and 1995 spring to mind as being particularly good years for pilots. Awful lot of ozmates swelled the ranks of Easyjet in the '90s.
I got my first turboprop job at 720 hours, first turboprop command at 2000 hours, first jet command at about 2800 hours. Many, many people stepped into their first heavy jet job with around a thousand hours, many had commands by 3000 hours. In the late nineties, we were hiring jet F/Os with 250 hours and an approved course. My first turboprop job, they were so keen to get me that they offered to pay for my CPL flight test and Instrument Rating. When I joined, I remarked to the training captain that our course of ten should help ease the crewing problem. He replied that they had had 18 resignations the previous week, and did I have any friends in NZ who wanted to come over? At the time, they were doing recruitment drives in Canada, offering free validations. So yes, there is such a thing as a pilot shortage, and it looks like a big one is on the way in Europe once the world works out that it isn't in recession any more... so if you have a Euro passport... |
Do pilots still pay for type ratings? If you can answer yes, then clearly theres no shortage. Nav. |
So yes, there is such a thing as a pilot shortage, and it looks like a big one is on the way in Europe once the world works out that it isn't in recession any more... so if you have a Euro passport... |
A Euro passport?...............I wish! |
I'll sell you my EU passport, buy a bugsmasher and fly when I want where I want. I wish...
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At last count I believe Virgin Blue had at least 1000 applications on their books with Qantas, and Jetstar about the same. And applications to Northern Territory and WA operators still go into the bin without being read. Shortage of pilots in the future? I don't think so.
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A Euro passport?...............I wish! Give it three months and there will be plenty of movement. A shortage no, but plenty of movement ala 2000/1 and 2007/8!:ok: |
I reckon PLovett's post #12 is spot on. The profession is undergoing, and has been undergoing some fundamental changes for quite a few years now. There may be no shortage of "applications" but will there again be a pile of "suitable" resume's that one can't jump over? Especially for the second and third level operators.
In years gone past the stary eyed wannabes that couldn't make the distance eventually cut their loses and moved out of the game. There were however plenty of tenacious (some may say blindly fanatical) boys and girls who forsakeing just about everything else, continued to plod along in the hope that one day they would "make it", and eventually some did. The problem now is that these fanatical types are in much shorter supply. What we'll see in coming years is the growth in MPL and Cadet schemes. It is much more logical and less soul destroying if a new pilot to the game is garrenteed a job at the end, no matter what the income, and no matter what the initial expense. Airline managers love this because they now have a pile of applications that they can no longer jump over. Unfortunately, unless it's Qantas, there will be a different sort of pain waiting for the naive and/or the uninitiated, and I don't just mean the cadets themselves. If the regional airlines do not actively lead the way in creating a viable long term career within their organisations, then the cycle of schedule disruption and eventual reduction will continue. But hey, everything's OK, we again have a pile of applications we can't jump over. :ok: |
There was never really a shortage, just a surge in recruitment by the airlines following years of slow movement. This caused a lowering of experience levels temporarily in some ranks as people couldn't build hours quickly enough to meet historic levels before being promoted.
Any MORE pilots at the time would have been unemployed pilots. This pattern may or may not be repeated for fleeting moments in the future. |
Again - maybe not in Oz - but there was a very real shortage in the UK. That first airline I worked for cancelled flights every day for lack of crews, for months. The worst day, we had five aircraft parked because we just couldn't crew them. There was no such thing as a standby duty, every pilot worked max hours.
The other indicator from those days, is that my salary rose by over 38% in a year as they desperately tried to find pilots. And we aren't talking about experienced people - these were fresh CPL holders with minimum hours. The joke in those days was that all you needed to get into the third level carriers was a licence and a pulse. The chances of it happening in Oz will increase as less and less people see aviation as a viable career. I would imagine that training has dropped right off over the last two years - it certainly has in NZ. |
The first positive indication of a pilot shortage in Australia will be when the RFDS are forced to lower their minimum hours from 2500 to 1500 or less. And that ain't never gonna happen either. |
Yeah, but whether they will make the 'cut' or not is another question as RFDS will not, and can't afford to, lower their standards. The learning curve is an aweful lot steeper for someone with less hours. It would be sad if someone 'gets in' and struggles and subsequently fails when after more time and experience elsewhere they would otherwise make the grade. During the recent so-called pilot shortage I think there was an increase in the number of people in that situation even despite the 'shortage.'
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A quote lifted from another forum site which I think sets the scene for the coming years. While it obviously refers to the US I do not think there is anything that I would disagree with in relation to Australia.
May 20, 2010 WASHINGTON — There are signs that future airline pilots will be less experienced, less ethical and in short supply, a panel of experts told an aviation safety forum on Tuesday. While there are more pilots than there are airline jobs today, the reverse is likely to be true as airlines recover from the economic recession and begin hiring again, experts on pilot hiring and screening told the National Transportation Safety Board. The coming shortage may likely fall heaviest on regional airlines, who generally employ less-experienced pilots at lower salaries, they said. There are about 54,000 pilots working for major airlines, nearly 19,000 regional airline pilots and about 2,500 qualified pilots available for hire in the U.S. today, said aviation consultant Judy Tarver, a former pilot recruiter for American Airlines. She estimated that airlines will need to hire about 42,090 pilots over the next decade, due to retirements and anticipated industry growth. Panel members said there are far fewer military pilots leaving for jobs with airlines. Fewer college students say they want careers in aviation because they see it as an economic dead end, and airlines are increasingly having to compete with corporations for pilots. The comments came as the safety board began a three-day forum on how to get more pilots and air traffic controllers to consistently strive for a high-level of professionalism. The impetus for the forum is a series of high-profile incidents over the past year in which the conduct and judgment of pilots and controllers have been called into question, including the crash of a regional airliner near Buffalo, N.Y., that killed 50 people. The safety board said the crash occurred after the plane stalled because the pilot pulled back, instead of pushing forward, on a key piece of safety equipment. But they also cited a series of errors and unprofessional conduct by the pilot and first officer leading up to the accident. Paul Rice, a pilot and spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association, said he was skeptical that a willingness to break rules and flout authority among younger pilots is any different than past generations of young pilots. However, he said he shared the panel's concern that there will be a shortage of experienced pilots at regional airlines, which account for half of all domestic flights and are the only scheduled air service to about 400 communities. Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said any pilot shortage won't affect safety because pilots are trained, certified and tested. Airline travel today is safer than ever before, but the Buffalo crash and other incidents are warning signs that safety may be eroding because of an attitude of "casual compliance" by a minority of pilots, said Tony Kern, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel and author of five books on pilot performance. Source: AP |
If anyone knows, Tony Kern will...
Here's a solution...PAY THEM MORE!!!!! |
In a similar vein then do people anticipate a shortage of good mechanics?
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Please somebody tell me when this pilot shortage is going to occur.
I want to mark my calendar, just in case I am busy that day. :rolleyes: |
After studying all the available statistics it's almost certain the pilot shortage will start in JULEMBER!
:8 |
When I first started towards aviation, Fortune 500 Magazine had just published an article entitled "Top 10 Sure Thing Jobs of the New Millennia!" Airline pilot was on that list. I always knew flying was going to be something I'd enjoy anyway, but I'd sure like to find that columnist now.....
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If you have a spare hundred grand in your pocket you could always try REX in Wagga where they train cadets on a PPL course leading to a CPL and right seat Saab 340. It is rumoured they prefer to hire low hour cadet F/O's over experienced GA pilots.
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I cant see how there wont be an Ag. pilot shortage in the future, probabley starting this Summer. Lots of areas with good water levels after the big Queensland rains. Alot of the companies servicing these areas wont be prepared for the higher than usual work load. Plus there aren't that many local Ag. pilots looking for work at present. I also know that the Ag. training schools haven't been doing many ratings lately. This means lots of empty Ag. seats.
If anyone has been considerering Ag. (although its not for everyone), now might be a good time to get involved.:ok: |
less ethical Sorry for the hijack - we now return you back to your regular program. |
with swinburne/oxford pumping out almost 100 cpl's a year now |
Originally Posted by c173
(Post 5708408)
with swinburne/oxford pumping out almost 100 cpl's a year now.....there will never be a pilot shortage
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Alot of my instructor friends at YMMB and YMEN seem to be sitting around and not doing too much flying lately. |
With swinburne/oxford, are the graduates garrenteed a flying position at the end? If not, then it's just another sausage factory, albeit with a fancy name!
You'll always get a fair number of people lured into the game. For most, the reality will be a CPL, with perhaps a degree, and with virtually no chance of gaining employment! The CPL holders who eventually "make it', will be the types that have always struggled to the top against seemingly impossible odds. the problem is, it is those types that are becoming rare in our Must have it now, flying is so common place world. |
Dont see why RFDS wont drop their mins now that they are operating 208s. Does not require a 3000hr pilot with huge amounts of night and IF experience to fly a 208 by day on the clinic runs.
For the king air and PC12 aeromedical ops, well thats another story and the mins are more than likely not negotiable. Wonder how long it will take before the RFDS bean counters realise that they dont have to pay 95k a year for a caravan driver and start recruiting lower time guys to do the clinic runs. As for the pilot shortage. Bring it on! I do know that Cairns Seaplanes are currently suffering a pilot shortage. That is more to do with the fact that no one can tolerate the Gen Manager though. 7 pilots in 18 months all with the same issues with the same person. CP is all on his own at the moment and word is that he is also looking at other options. |
As for the pilot shortage. Bring it on! Will it be this week? |
Originally Posted by chimbu warrior
Will it be this week?
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