Are Patrick going to shut down Pac Blue
 

Interesting reading the local paper in Aust recently, It appears that if Patrick get what they want then one of there options is to shut down Pacific Blue. Of course Godfrey totally dissagrees but that was there first agenda to get rid of him. They figure that even if they are breaking even or even making a profit on the tasman, that the aircraft can make even more money domestically within Aust under Virgin Blue and we all know that all Patrick are interested in is making money.

This is what I see happening:

1. Patrick get control and either, Sack Godfrey, shut down pacific blue and put the aircraft back into the domestic market. Then go to Qantas and make a deal. Something like we want 35% of the market and you can have 65% and lets "jack" the prices up for domestic travel. Of course this will we behind closed doors ( just like the oil companies with petrol prices ).

OR

2. Patrick get control and sell Virgin Blue / Pacific Blue and take there money and run. If this happens, Branson will sell his share and be back again within 5 years setting up another budget carrier with a Singapore airlines partnership.

Of course these are my opinions only but will be interested to see what others think.

Hmmm, seems like a very sound business plan to me!!

Cheers, HH.

:ok:

No way in hell would Corrigan sell his share in VB.

VB are making a profit, just not as much as CC would like.
In Corrigans opinion (and that of his backers) VB has been less than optimally run since Jetstar came along, hence Godfrey must go.
Also Pacific Blue is losing money overall and a profit is nowhere on the horizon.
No amount of hype or marketing babble accounted for the fact that the VB team totally underestimated Qantas, Air NZ and Freedom's resolve.
They just totally misread the market and seeing that Chris Corrigan is in the business of making a profit then bid them farewell.

Longer term, when the name Virgin Blue can be changed in a few years time, bet your family jewels that the name will be changed and see it turn into a leaner and more efficient version of Ansett.

I would be surprised to see potential ex Pac Blue capacity return/enter the Australian market - it is saturated now.

grdproxinop, your quote:

I think if they did this the AAAC we be down on them like a tonne of bricks these days. Gone are the days of price fixing.

Sheep

I think he means that they wouldn't tell the ACCC and that they would keep it a big secret just like the oil companies and wharves do now.

TIMMEEEE.... I agree with you, I think the first of my opinions is more likely to happen rather than the later, ie Sack Godfrey and sell Pac Blue and put Pac Blues aircraft back into the aussie domestic market

Sheepee...... HGW hit the nail on the head with regards to what I was implying. Why in the Hell would you tell the AAAC.

Further more Pac Blue have nothing in NZ to tie them here, All there Tech Crew are on Contracts through Rishworth and there Cabin Crew's contract has nothing at all to stand up on. I believe the Pac Blue loads have been average to say he least and when you are only selling tickets for $1 you'd have to be selling alot of chocky bars on flight to be making a profit of any kind

As I said just my opinion

Oops I goofed, I knew it was triple somethiing thanks HGW.:) Yes they may keep it a secret, but that wouldnt stop the ACCC from invetsigating suggested price fixing. There powers of investigation and prosecution arent to be messed with, and Im sure they werent around in the old TAA and Ansett Days. Patrick maye be a large Company but it aint an Oil Company like BP etc etc. with big Pockets of Capital and the power to change market forces.


Sheep

BP's biggest hold over oil prices (well in WA at least) is refining capability. When you have a BP plant supplying the petrol requirements (and Av fuels) for all of WA, and parts of the rest of australia you have the oppurtunity to set the Terminal Gate Price for all the competitors.

So take the TGP in Singapore, add the cost of an Oil Tanker to get it to Australia, divide by number of litres, and bingo, you have the local Terminal Gate Price. As long as it is still (marginally) cheaper to buy it from BP rather then Singapore, BP wins the supply.

As far as this debate goes, i dont know as much about that then as oil prices, but my opinion is once it is known (through some unoffical channels...) that one carrier wont force another off the market, then prices will bob up to a sustainable level. But once the market share target is not acchieved, and loads drop, then the price will, to stimulate demand and raise market share.

Pac Blue will be the first thing to go. The aircraft will come to Oz and the crews on contract unfortunately will be ringing Parc aviation. There loads have always been crap and they are fighting a loosing battle on this “Low Yield” Tasman route. The Aussie crew will (As they should have always been doing) the Islands from Oz.

ACCC, in my opinion, do not have the necessary AVIATION forensic accounting skills to take on QF.

The way the collusion happened in one industry was : "You guys can have 38% of the market but if you get 1% more than 38% we will beat you down to 25%".

It was never detected.

Godfrey to Stay
 

Tues "Herald-Sun"

Virgin doing it tough
Geoff Easdown
29mar05

BRETT Godfrey has told Virgin Blue staff he will remain with the airline and see it through the "tough times" this year.

The discount carrier's chief executive says he is not resigning because control of the airline has shifted after the successful takeover bid by Patrick Corp.
But in a letter he warns airline workers to brace for change as Virgin Blue diversifies to become both a value-based leisure and a value-based business carrier.

Click here for FULL story

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I see that BG has picked up on GD's use of the term 'fair return on captial invested'. :rolleyes:

Does anyone have any valuable info instead of rumour regarding the possible fate of Pacific Blue? Those who are working there would no doubt be glad to hear from those who may be in the know. Also for those who are considering going to Pacific Blue in the near future, what is in store for them? Will they spend their savings on 737NG rating and have the possibility of losing their job, or do those out there think that PB is here for the long term? What is the reality of PB's future? Are they making money or not? What is the consensus regarding Rishworth and the possibility of a job if PB do get the chop? Know one will ever know the final outcome, but as it stands is it worth going to Pacific Blue????:confused:

grdproxinop

No, loads are fine, WLG BNE/SYD is around 80%.

Burty
What do you think will happen to Pac Blue? Do you work there? Could you give me some details regarding the operation.
Thanks:ok:

COP,

I've heard Freedom are suffering " BIG TIME " rumour of a reduction in one airframe.....PB is still worth a gamble get the rating although self financed...get some 73 time . If it goes, you're still in a better position on the job market, if not with your bank manager.....
Good luck.

Saw in the BNE Courier Mail where Freedom is losing some of it's routes to Air New Zealand. What's going to happen with staff... or do Air NZ do all the ground handling?

I think you will find that PB are doing reasonably well on the Tasman. I know for a fact, that Freedom are dropping AKL-BNE. mmmm, wonder if that has anything to do with PooBlue moving into AKL next month............... My bet is they are here to stay. O yeah, herd one of there flights depart WLG today with 168 POB, and that’s there weakest port apparently. :) go figure.

Freedom dropping AKL-BNE? Ouch. Going to make it short of seats on that particular sector. Particularly with ANZ increasing capacity, as well as both ANZ and QF running 400's on this route.

However, if Freedom are dropping it then Pacific Blue must be caning it, even if they haven't started yet. Better sell those 400's ANZ and QF, they won't be needed soon.

BTW, full loads don't always equal profit - depends on what amount you are selling the seat for.