QF long-haul fleet in medium term - some analysis and some questions
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QF long-haul fleet in medium term - some analysis and some questions
Hi all,
I've been gazing into the crystal ball of how the Qantas long-haul fleet will pan out over the next five to ten years. Just by way of background, I work as a transport planner (not for QF) and deal quite extensively with fleet planning.
What we know
Now that we know SYD-HKG will continue using long-haul equipment, there is sufficient information to draw up the following on what we can safely assume will happen:
A few things stand out here:
It's fairly obvious that A380s 13 and 14 will be delivered in a 'standard' configuration to the rest of the A380 fleet.
The speculation
We know that there are not enough A380s to cover today's existing B747 F class flights; some will need to move to a 3 class operation. How do you see this panning out?
Specifically, Alan Joyce reports that DFW is performing strongly. Do you think it's likely that a four class A380 will be deployed on this route? Do any pilots know how extensive the payload restrictions are between DFW-BNE and whether they would justify an A380 on this route from an economic perspective? Yields are probably decent - I can never seem to pick up a cheap fare on this flight and have to travel via LAX.
Other routes strike me (without having seen the data) as requiring an F cabin. For example, the daily QF107 connecting to New York would be an odd one to reduce to a 3-class plane because United operates First, but this seems to be a necessary outcome with the proposed fleet size.
Will there be enough frames to cover maintenance in light of the numbers I've posted? There appears to be virtually no slack in the long-haul fleet. What proportion of a 23 plane fleet is needed out for maintenance at any one time?
Link in full: Qantas A380s to Hong Kong and future deployment of A380/B747 fleet | I like to get around
I've been gazing into the crystal ball of how the Qantas long-haul fleet will pan out over the next five to ten years. Just by way of background, I work as a transport planner (not for QF) and deal quite extensively with fleet planning.
What we know
Now that we know SYD-HKG will continue using long-haul equipment, there is sufficient information to draw up the following on what we can safely assume will happen:
A few things stand out here:
- Some flights with F today will lose it; QF's proposed fleet of 14 A380s is insufficient to cover existing First Class flights.
- There will be less "slack" in the long-haul fleet once B747 reduced to 9. This may result in reduced punctuality, although current long-haul flights have long layovers at LHR and LAX.
- No new long-haul routes until new long-haul aircraft come online.
It's fairly obvious that A380s 13 and 14 will be delivered in a 'standard' configuration to the rest of the A380 fleet.
The speculation
We know that there are not enough A380s to cover today's existing B747 F class flights; some will need to move to a 3 class operation. How do you see this panning out?
Specifically, Alan Joyce reports that DFW is performing strongly. Do you think it's likely that a four class A380 will be deployed on this route? Do any pilots know how extensive the payload restrictions are between DFW-BNE and whether they would justify an A380 on this route from an economic perspective? Yields are probably decent - I can never seem to pick up a cheap fare on this flight and have to travel via LAX.
Other routes strike me (without having seen the data) as requiring an F cabin. For example, the daily QF107 connecting to New York would be an odd one to reduce to a 3-class plane because United operates First, but this seems to be a necessary outcome with the proposed fleet size.
Will there be enough frames to cover maintenance in light of the numbers I've posted? There appears to be virtually no slack in the long-haul fleet. What proportion of a 23 plane fleet is needed out for maintenance at any one time?
Link in full: Qantas A380s to Hong Kong and future deployment of A380/B747 fleet | I like to get around
OK. To move on a little the current rumour at work is there will be 16 400s in 2015 left, 9 with the new 3 class interiors. I agree with all you say re the 380s however i think they will struggle with just 14 as for the next couple of years there will be 1 on the ground for refurb full time, so the 400 will have to fill in for that. You also left out Narita 6 times a week for another 5600 hours per year and daily Perth return 3000 hours per year so another 2 aircraft required. Despite what they might like to think they can do i believe the 380 cant operate to Dallas as all the alternates for Dallas wont except it, so they are stuck with the 400 with payload restrictions home , 250 paxs and no freight is about the limit. The 787-8 is not a 400 replacement so i dont know what they are going to do about the 400s. Stop flying or buy some 777. Highly unlikely, hang on i know, blame the staff, works ever time.
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Thanks for the analysis, obviously you love this stuff.
Can you explain why the company wouldn't put the 787's with mainline to replace the 767?
Even today theyre saying it wouldn't be a silver bullet for mainline, cant see how having a state of the art replacement for the 767 can not invigorate the troops and the pax.....
Can you explain why the company wouldn't put the 787's with mainline to replace the 767?
Even today theyre saying it wouldn't be a silver bullet for mainline, cant see how having a state of the art replacement for the 767 can not invigorate the troops and the pax.....
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Can you explain why the company wouldn't put the 787's with mainline to replace the 767?
Even today theyre saying it wouldn't be a silver bullet for mainline, cant see how having a state of the art replacement for the 767 can not invigorate the troops and the pax.....
Even today theyre saying it wouldn't be a silver bullet for mainline, cant see how having a state of the art replacement for the 767 can not invigorate the troops and the pax.....
B748's perhaps? Maybe some B777's?
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Because they're giving the first 15 787's to J*. As the old clattered 330's come back online with QANTAS, these will replace the already over the hill 767's. This is why the 787 will not be a silver bullet for QANTAS mainline, because it will be saving J* all the money at QANTAS's expense.
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Last thing I heard from a now former Fleet Captain was that the 380 will be curtailed at 12, not 14. They would like to conduct ops to KDFW because it can go back to SYD non-stop, various airport considerations are the problem.
The 747-400ER needs a Pavement Concession to operate out of DFW at 412.7 tonnes Max TOW. I'm doubtful the A380 could use the airport at its Max TOW.
+ + Love your work ILTGA.
+ + Love your work ILTGA.
Maybe this is what's needed to get Qantas to order B777s
GE Continues Studies on Next Generation Engine for Boeing 777X Aircraft
GE Aviation continues its studies into advanced technologies for the next-generation engine to power Boeing next generation 777 aircraft.
"GE has been working with Boeing for four years on the design of its new 777X aircraft, and GE's engine study, called the GE9X, is designed specifically for this aircraft," said Bill Millhaem, general manager of the GE90 program at GE Aviation. "The GE9X is focused on improvements in fuel burn, noise and emission over the current GE90-115B engine while maintaining comparable reliability and maintenance cost."
The GE9X engine will offer 10% percent fuel improvement over today's GE90 engines. Key features of the 100,000 lb. thrust GE9X will include:
Fan diameter similar in size to the GE90-115B engine (128 inches);
4th generation composite fan blades and composite fan case;
High pressure compressor driven by new aerodynamics technology and 4th generation powder metal material with a 27:1 pressure ratio;
TAPS III combustor;
High pressure turbine with ceramic matric composite (CMCs) material
And enhanced titanium aluminide (TiAl) LPT airfoils.
GE Aviation has already been conducting tests on new material for the engine during the last few years. A high pressure compressor rig is scheduled to run early next year, with the first full core test set for 2015.
The GE9X will follow the highly successful GE90-115B engine that entered service in 2004. At 115,000 pounds of thrust, the GE90-115B engine includes such performance-enhancing features as three-dimensional aerodynamic (3-D aero) compressor and wide-chord, swept composite fan blades for greater efficiency. The dual annular combustor emits no more than 40 percent of the hydrocarbons allowed by today's international standards. In addition, today's GE90-115 engines have been enhanced to reduce fuel burn by 3.6% from the 2000 launch specification.
More than 1,500 GE90-115B engines have been ordered by customers for their Boeing 777-300ERs, 777-200LRs and 777 Freighters. In 2011, the GE90 engine experienced its most successful year and accumulated airline and freighter operator commitments for 400 engines, surpassing the 250 engine commitments record from 2007.
Snecma of France, Avio SpA of Italy and IHI Corporation of Japan are revenue-sharing participants in the GE90 program.
Source : GE Aviation
GE Aviation continues its studies into advanced technologies for the next-generation engine to power Boeing next generation 777 aircraft.
"GE has been working with Boeing for four years on the design of its new 777X aircraft, and GE's engine study, called the GE9X, is designed specifically for this aircraft," said Bill Millhaem, general manager of the GE90 program at GE Aviation. "The GE9X is focused on improvements in fuel burn, noise and emission over the current GE90-115B engine while maintaining comparable reliability and maintenance cost."
The GE9X engine will offer 10% percent fuel improvement over today's GE90 engines. Key features of the 100,000 lb. thrust GE9X will include:
Fan diameter similar in size to the GE90-115B engine (128 inches);
4th generation composite fan blades and composite fan case;
High pressure compressor driven by new aerodynamics technology and 4th generation powder metal material with a 27:1 pressure ratio;
TAPS III combustor;
High pressure turbine with ceramic matric composite (CMCs) material
And enhanced titanium aluminide (TiAl) LPT airfoils.
GE Aviation has already been conducting tests on new material for the engine during the last few years. A high pressure compressor rig is scheduled to run early next year, with the first full core test set for 2015.
The GE9X will follow the highly successful GE90-115B engine that entered service in 2004. At 115,000 pounds of thrust, the GE90-115B engine includes such performance-enhancing features as three-dimensional aerodynamic (3-D aero) compressor and wide-chord, swept composite fan blades for greater efficiency. The dual annular combustor emits no more than 40 percent of the hydrocarbons allowed by today's international standards. In addition, today's GE90-115 engines have been enhanced to reduce fuel burn by 3.6% from the 2000 launch specification.
More than 1,500 GE90-115B engines have been ordered by customers for their Boeing 777-300ERs, 777-200LRs and 777 Freighters. In 2011, the GE90 engine experienced its most successful year and accumulated airline and freighter operator commitments for 400 engines, surpassing the 250 engine commitments record from 2007.
Snecma of France, Avio SpA of Italy and IHI Corporation of Japan are revenue-sharing participants in the GE90 program.
Source : GE Aviation
The 77x is to join the 748 and the 380 into the Cat F aerodrome category due to its planned increased wingspan. Will be interesting how this alters route planning, as there can be some long stretchers between airfields. More Etops (oops is that LROPS now?) perhaps?
the Don
the Don
