Oil Prices
I wish I knew which particular website you were referring to before the PPRuNe auto-censor function kicked in 
The national broadcaster's news page has an interesting coverage of Libya and the other N African "revolutions".
Are we seeing a shift towards greater democracy, or a shift towards greater Islamist power?
If this is an Islamist-driven 'revolution', and N Africa is held by religious states all looking towards Iran for guidance, what will the social, political, and military landscapes look like in 5 years from now?
A large block of nations intently opposed to Western culture and lifestyles, including the nuclear-capable Iran and Pakistan, holding 90% of the world's oil reserves?
Better do more than fill up the car. How many solar cells can we fit on the top surface of a Chieftain?
The national broadcaster's news page has an interesting coverage of Libya and the other N African "revolutions".
Are we seeing a shift towards greater democracy, or a shift towards greater Islamist power?
If this is an Islamist-driven 'revolution', and N Africa is held by religious states all looking towards Iran for guidance, what will the social, political, and military landscapes look like in 5 years from now?
A large block of nations intently opposed to Western culture and lifestyles, including the nuclear-capable Iran and Pakistan, holding 90% of the world's oil reserves?
Better do more than fill up the car. How many solar cells can we fit on the top surface of a Chieftain?
It worries me what will fill the vacuum here.
Democracy only works well in societies where groups accept and respect losing an election. As people don't swing with their faiths as they can do with political ideology, in political climates where the parties are along secular lines, there will frequently remain a disaffected, unhappy, frustrated secular minority that may resort to whatever methods it sees to usurp the "elected" majority.
Democracy only works well in societies where groups accept and respect losing an election. As people don't swing with their faiths as they can do with political ideology, in political climates where the parties are along secular lines, there will frequently remain a disaffected, unhappy, frustrated secular minority that may resort to whatever methods it sees to usurp the "elected" majority.
The one thing these nations all have in common is Western-friendly "dictatorship" government.
Stallie, I think you and I might be thinking along similar lines. Best we discuss this in great depth, on licenced premises, at the first opportunity.
Stallie, I think you and I might be thinking along similar lines. Best we discuss this in great depth, on licenced premises, at the first opportunity.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: shivering in the cold dark shadow of my own magnificence.
Posts: 522
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Are we seeing a shift towards greater democracy, or a shift towards greater Islamist power?
I would suggest probably neither. Gaddafi hates the islamic extremists, and Bin Laden hates Gaddafi. On the Other hand Gaddafi is not seen as a western puppet like Mubarek was, so he remains quite popular amongst the Libyan population. However, because Gaddafi doesn't rely on the US like Mubarak did, he doesn't give a rats rectum about western opinions, thus the uprising will be put down in a most bloody fashion.
A large block of nations intently opposed to Western culture and lifestyles, including the nuclear-capable Iran and Pakistan, holding 90% of the world's oil reserves?
Pakistan is a basket case but I believe that Iran will emerge as the biggest success story of our time. By and large the Iranian population is quite young and well educated with a strong desire for religious, cultural and political freedom. The old hardliners of the islamic revolution no longer come close to representing the population. I'd suggest that Arminijad would be feeling more than a little nervous by now.
Grandpa Aerotart
I'd suggest that Ahmadinejad would be feeling more than a little nervous by now.
Why? Because right in their midst is an example of a thriving western culture that is a constant siren call to their downtrodden masses.
A state that thrives under the rule of Law not man. Where Shiite Muslims are more free to follow their religion than they would be in Saudi Arabia.
Numerous attempts have been made to destroy that example of how life CAN be but all failed in large part because of the cold war that formed a backdrop to those times.
The reason Iran (and every other state in the ME) wants 'the bomb' or some other weapon of mass destruction is so the NEXT time Israel is attacked they won't be able to retaliate conventionally and win - like every other time - the way they could when the only nuclear powers were the USSR and USA.
Iraq is another potential example to the average Arab in the streets of Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Libya etc of what a secular democracy can mean for quality of life. Iran needs the bomb BEFORE Iraq really starts to thrive economically and socially.
A successful Iraqi democracy will be just as big a problem for the Middle Eastern autocracies as Israel has been since 1947.
I think we are in for war in the ME again. A war in the ME with a nuclear armed Iran hovering threateningly with the balance of power that a nuclear weapon provides is a worry indeed.
The west has lost its ability to deter aggressive ME autocracies from attempting to remove these examples of the superiority of western culture, the rule of Law, free markets/trade/separation of religion and state etc etc etc. Obama, Sarkozi, Merkel, Cameron, and western society in general, are perceived as weak and NOT capable of going truly postal on a perceived enemy/threat the way we were in earlier times. I think that will change BUT ONLY when western societies grasp what is at stake - survival.
As to suggesting 90% of the oil is there - only until we put the Environmentalist movement back in its box and start drilling again. The west has plenty of oil in the ground.
“A state that thrives under the rule of Law not man.”
Except when it comes to human rights and international law.
“The reason Iran (and every other state in the ME) wants 'the bomb' or some other weapon of mass destruction is so the NEXT time Israel is attacked they won't be able to retaliate conventionally and win - like every other time - the way they could when the only nuclear powers were the USSR and USA.”
Ergo, when Iran chooses to attack Israel it will be a nuclear strike. Is that your assertion?
“A war in the ME with a nuclear armed Iran”. Except that Iran does not have nuclear weapons.
“….the superiority of western culture”.
As viewed by . . . . .a westerner I guess.
“free markets”. Really, where?
“perceived as weak and NOT capable of going truly postal on a perceived enemy/threat”
I assume you mean Pakistan and KSR? These are the true threats in the ME but instead of going “postal” on them the west is . . .. arming them. Financing them. Training them.
Why do you think that is?
Except when it comes to human rights and international law.
“The reason Iran (and every other state in the ME) wants 'the bomb' or some other weapon of mass destruction is so the NEXT time Israel is attacked they won't be able to retaliate conventionally and win - like every other time - the way they could when the only nuclear powers were the USSR and USA.”
Ergo, when Iran chooses to attack Israel it will be a nuclear strike. Is that your assertion?
“A war in the ME with a nuclear armed Iran”. Except that Iran does not have nuclear weapons.
“….the superiority of western culture”.
As viewed by . . . . .a westerner I guess.
“free markets”. Really, where?
“perceived as weak and NOT capable of going truly postal on a perceived enemy/threat”
I assume you mean Pakistan and KSR? These are the true threats in the ME but instead of going “postal” on them the west is . . .. arming them. Financing them. Training them.
Why do you think that is?
Oil surges 6% as Libya tension intensifies
Oil prices surged more than 6% Monday as antigovernment protests in the Middle East and Africa intensified, raising worries about possible supply disruptions.
Crude oil for April delivery gained $5.69, or 6.3%, to $95.40 a barrel.
257Email Print U.S. oil prices have been trading in a range between $88 and $95 a barrel since the start of the year but prices have been much higher in other parts of the world.
Brent crude, the benchmark European oil standard, hit a 2-1/2-year high of $105 a barrel before retreating slightly to settle at $102.52 a barrel. An overhang of supply has been keeping U.S. prices on the low side ... for now.
"All eyes are on the Middle East and North Africa crisis regarding potential disruptions in oil exports that could drive crude oil prices even higher," Myrto Sokou, an analyst at Sucden Financial, wrote in a research report.
Monday's spike follows violent clashes in Libya over the weekend that were spurred, at least in part, by angst over high unemployment. The unrest has left at least 233 people dead in Libya, according to Human Rights Watch.
Tensions remained high in the North African nation Monday, albeit a far cry from the tumult seen Sunday, when the violence and chaos came to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's doorstep Tripoli, Libya's capital, for the first time.
BP confirmed Monday that it is preparing to evacuate about 140 families and non-essential staff from Tripoli. The oil company said none of its operations were impacted ... yet. But it has suspended preparations for a drilling project in Libya's western desert.
Shell Oil said it closed its Tripoli office, but employees are able to work from home. So far, only dependants of its expatriate staff have been relocated out of the country. "We continue to monitor the situation very closely," said Shell spokesman David Williams.
Here comes $4 gasoline
Libya produces 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, Nigeria produces an estimated 2.2 million barrels per day, making it Africa's largest producer.
"As long as the situation in this key oil-production region of the Middle East and North Africa remains so volatile, expect prices for the commodity to remain supported," said Ilya Spivak, an analyst at DailyFX, in a research report.
Gold prices also rose as investors sought the perceived safety of precious metals. April gold was up $14.30, or 1%, to $1,402.90 an ounce. Silver also jumped, rising 3.5% to $33.42 an ounce.
The unrest in Libya is part of a wave of protests across the region that started in Tunisia earlier this year and spread to Egypt, where antigovernment protesters toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak earlier this month.
Crude oil for April delivery gained $5.69, or 6.3%, to $95.40 a barrel.
257Email Print U.S. oil prices have been trading in a range between $88 and $95 a barrel since the start of the year but prices have been much higher in other parts of the world.
Brent crude, the benchmark European oil standard, hit a 2-1/2-year high of $105 a barrel before retreating slightly to settle at $102.52 a barrel. An overhang of supply has been keeping U.S. prices on the low side ... for now.
"All eyes are on the Middle East and North Africa crisis regarding potential disruptions in oil exports that could drive crude oil prices even higher," Myrto Sokou, an analyst at Sucden Financial, wrote in a research report.
Monday's spike follows violent clashes in Libya over the weekend that were spurred, at least in part, by angst over high unemployment. The unrest has left at least 233 people dead in Libya, according to Human Rights Watch.
Tensions remained high in the North African nation Monday, albeit a far cry from the tumult seen Sunday, when the violence and chaos came to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's doorstep Tripoli, Libya's capital, for the first time.
BP confirmed Monday that it is preparing to evacuate about 140 families and non-essential staff from Tripoli. The oil company said none of its operations were impacted ... yet. But it has suspended preparations for a drilling project in Libya's western desert.
Shell Oil said it closed its Tripoli office, but employees are able to work from home. So far, only dependants of its expatriate staff have been relocated out of the country. "We continue to monitor the situation very closely," said Shell spokesman David Williams.
Here comes $4 gasoline
Libya produces 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, Nigeria produces an estimated 2.2 million barrels per day, making it Africa's largest producer.
"As long as the situation in this key oil-production region of the Middle East and North Africa remains so volatile, expect prices for the commodity to remain supported," said Ilya Spivak, an analyst at DailyFX, in a research report.
Gold prices also rose as investors sought the perceived safety of precious metals. April gold was up $14.30, or 1%, to $1,402.90 an ounce. Silver also jumped, rising 3.5% to $33.42 an ounce.
The unrest in Libya is part of a wave of protests across the region that started in Tunisia earlier this year and spread to Egypt, where antigovernment protesters toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak earlier this month.
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 299
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Reports in the press this morning of Libyan air force mirages landing in Malta with the pilots seeking asylum after refusing to attack civilians.
one single seat mirage landed with 2 colonels on board would have been a bit of a squeeze.
one single seat mirage landed with 2 colonels on board would have been a bit of a squeeze.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: rangaville
Posts: 2,280
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You have got to admire the citizens of Egypt and Libya fighting for democracy at the very real risk of their lives. I hope they are rewarded with democracy rather than dictators worse than the incumbents. 
oicur12.again : This thread is an interesting discussion about the implications of the happenings occuring across the ME. Don't be a moron and try to turn this into a never ending pro/anti Israel/Western foreign policy argument. There are a zillion other places you can ruin instead.
Das,
If you think that the discussion on this thread is anything BUT a western foreign policy argument then you are clearly more clueless about events in the ME than your clever cartoon would suggest.
The predictable, pre programmed ignorant comments from Chimbu have waived any rights to this debate being about oil prices and nothing more.
If you think that the discussion on this thread is anything BUT a western foreign policy argument then you are clearly more clueless about events in the ME than your clever cartoon would suggest.
The predictable, pre programmed ignorant comments from Chimbu have waived any rights to this debate being about oil prices and nothing more.
Groan. Go back to Dailykos or reddit or christ knows where ever you came from.
I'm interested in the original thread topic, if you disagree with chimbu then PM him, otherwise this thread gets locked (and hence ruined) because you couldn't resist informing someone with a differing opinion to yours of how ignorant they must therefore be.
Personally I think we are already seeing signs of a large spike in fuel prices due to the uncertainty, and with markets moving towards precious metals like gold to sure up prospects its going to only make the situation worse.
It will be interesting to see what form of new government emerge from the flames.
I'm interested in the original thread topic, if you disagree with chimbu then PM him, otherwise this thread gets locked (and hence ruined) because you couldn't resist informing someone with a differing opinion to yours of how ignorant they must therefore be.
Personally I think we are already seeing signs of a large spike in fuel prices due to the uncertainty, and with markets moving towards precious metals like gold to sure up prospects its going to only make the situation worse.
It will be interesting to see what form of new government emerge from the flames.
Last edited by das Uber Soldat; 22nd Feb 2011 at 08:06.
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Alabama, then Wyoming, then Idaho and now staying with Kharon on Styx houseboat
Age: 61
Posts: 1,437
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I would suggest probably neither. Gaddafi hates the islamic extremists, and Bin Laden hates Gaddafi. On the Other hand Gaddafi is not seen as a western puppet like Mubarek was, so he remains quite popular amongst the Libyan population.
Personally I think we are already seeing signs of a large spike in fuel prices due to the uncertainty, and with markets moving towards precious metals like gold to sure up prospects its going to only make the situation worse.
GOLD 02/21/2011 13:15 Bid 1406.60 Ask 1407.60 +17.50 +1.26%
SILVER 02/21/2011 13:14 Bid 33.91 Ask 33.93 +1.25 +3.83%
Paper money is on its way into the history pages. The astute know it and are buying up on Gold and Silver, a prudent and wise investment.
Oil will always remain volatile but without a doubt the current problems in the ME are only just the beginning. Wait, watch and see.
SILVER 02/21/2011 13:14 Bid 33.91 Ask 33.93 +1.25 +3.83%
Paper money is on its way into the history pages. The astute know it and are buying up on Gold and Silver, a prudent and wise investment.
Oil will always remain volatile but without a doubt the current problems in the ME are only just the beginning. Wait, watch and see.
"....because you couldn't resist informing someone with a differing opinion to yours of how ignorant they must therefore be."
The "opinion" was introduced into the debate by Chimbu.
As for money. Yes, the dollar is over, the world will return to a gold/metals based system. The US economy is in serious trouble and oil will head north again big time.
Iran is a key player in unplugging the western status quo wrt kish bourse and oil trade outside of the petrodollar system. The nuclear bogeyman in Iran is manufactured as a way of softening up the American public for the next round in the resource wars.
The "opinion" was introduced into the debate by Chimbu.
As for money. Yes, the dollar is over, the world will return to a gold/metals based system. The US economy is in serious trouble and oil will head north again big time.
Iran is a key player in unplugging the western status quo wrt kish bourse and oil trade outside of the petrodollar system. The nuclear bogeyman in Iran is manufactured as a way of softening up the American public for the next round in the resource wars.
I'm interested in the original thread topic, if you disagree with chimbu then PM him, otherwise this thread gets locked (and hence ruined) because you couldn't resist informing someone with a differing opinion to yours of how ignorant they must therefore be.
Apart from the obvious effect on the cost of aviation fuels the subject has zero relevance in this particular forum.
Grandpa Aerotart
Why shouldn't this thread stay here. Doesn't a spike in il prices effect our industry in Australia?
So far I note that the spike in oil is merely trader reaction to the FEAR of oil shortages that CURRENTLY don't exist. As of this time oil has not stopped flowing from Libya or anywhere else...Egypt has been a net importer of oil for a while and Bahrain doesn't have that much either. The Saudis have stated that IF oil stops flowing from Libya they will make up the difference...about 1.5 million barrels per day. I am sure the Peak oilers will then say "They are bluffing - they don't have the capacity or the excess oil".
If you think you can discuss the current crisis in the ME and its possible effects on oil prices without taking into consideration the greater ME situation well I think that is naive in the extreme.
Run that past me again? Only one state in the ME actually protects individuals rights...just because the individual rights they protect are not those of the citizens of the countries that have been attacking them for 64 years you seek to condemn them?
Tell me again who are currently murdering their own citizens because they want to enjoy the obvious fruits of democracy and free markets/trade?
Tell me again who executes its homosexual citizens?
Tell me again who turns a blind eye (at the very least) to honour killings of young women who fall in love with the 'wrong' man.
Tell me again who exports Islamic Fascism/Terrorism to the west?
Was it Israelis who recently slashed with a Stanley Knife and bashed with a metal pipe and piece of concrete a Teacher in the UK for the crime of teaching Muslim girls?
Israel is functionally equivalent to Australia or New Zealand in respect to its political system, legal system and its protections of its citizens rights. 100s of 1000s of Muslim Arabs live peacefully within the State of Israel - mostly illegal immigrants. Why do you suppose they chose to stay there?
I think Iran does want the bomb - why should that be a surprise? India has it, Pakistan has it and Israel has it. The reason the US is arming the Saudis and the Emirates is because the Saudis and Emirates are VERY worried about Iran.
I probably used the wrong word in my last post - culture instead of democracy. Although I firmly believe western culture is superior to many cultures extant in the ME. Just because western culture is not perfect doesn't mean its not better than others. Just because our markets/globalisation/trade practices are not perfect doesn't mean they are not better than what exists in most of the ME.
The west doesn't have to be perfect it just has to be better. If you think its not better go and try Pakistan or Egypt or Libya or Saudi Arabia.
I am not particularly worried about what is happening right this instant in the ME but I am worried about what is possibly coming down the pike. Democracy in the ME - whether its in Israeli or Iraq (in time) - is a threat to the surrounding Autocracies. We are witnessing right now how they deal with a threat to their power from their own people. Their own people are, in my view, motivated to a great extent by the possibilities they see for a better future under a democratic system with their individual rights to live their lives as they see fit protected by the rule of Law. Israel and Iraq are examples right on their doorstep.
The UN is a sick joke - with all that is going on in Libya etc at the moment what did they do? Passed yet another resolution against Israel for building some apartments on 'occupied land'.
Human rights? Open your eyes oicur12.
70% of UN resolutions are against the only functioning and thriving democracy in the ME and ignore utterly the 'human rights' violations of every other state (all autocracies) in the region. Its long past time the west stopped funding the UN.
$100/barrel oil is as damaging to the world economy in its current fragile state as $150/barrel oil was a few short years ago.
A wider war in the ME - which I think is not far off - would send oil towards $200/barrel.
Is that reason enough for the west to go 'postal' in the ME?
We have been to war for less.
Has the west the capacity or heart to do so? Remains to be seen.
Weather wise we seem to be reliving the 70s - politically it feels like 1938.
So far I note that the spike in oil is merely trader reaction to the FEAR of oil shortages that CURRENTLY don't exist. As of this time oil has not stopped flowing from Libya or anywhere else...Egypt has been a net importer of oil for a while and Bahrain doesn't have that much either. The Saudis have stated that IF oil stops flowing from Libya they will make up the difference...about 1.5 million barrels per day. I am sure the Peak oilers will then say "They are bluffing - they don't have the capacity or the excess oil".
If you think you can discuss the current crisis in the ME and its possible effects on oil prices without taking into consideration the greater ME situation well I think that is naive in the extreme.
Except when it comes to human rights and international law.
Tell me again who are currently murdering their own citizens because they want to enjoy the obvious fruits of democracy and free markets/trade?
Tell me again who executes its homosexual citizens?
Tell me again who turns a blind eye (at the very least) to honour killings of young women who fall in love with the 'wrong' man.
Tell me again who exports Islamic Fascism/Terrorism to the west?
Was it Israelis who recently slashed with a Stanley Knife and bashed with a metal pipe and piece of concrete a Teacher in the UK for the crime of teaching Muslim girls?
Israel is functionally equivalent to Australia or New Zealand in respect to its political system, legal system and its protections of its citizens rights. 100s of 1000s of Muslim Arabs live peacefully within the State of Israel - mostly illegal immigrants. Why do you suppose they chose to stay there?
I think Iran does want the bomb - why should that be a surprise? India has it, Pakistan has it and Israel has it. The reason the US is arming the Saudis and the Emirates is because the Saudis and Emirates are VERY worried about Iran.
I probably used the wrong word in my last post - culture instead of democracy. Although I firmly believe western culture is superior to many cultures extant in the ME. Just because western culture is not perfect doesn't mean its not better than others. Just because our markets/globalisation/trade practices are not perfect doesn't mean they are not better than what exists in most of the ME.
The west doesn't have to be perfect it just has to be better. If you think its not better go and try Pakistan or Egypt or Libya or Saudi Arabia.
I am not particularly worried about what is happening right this instant in the ME but I am worried about what is possibly coming down the pike. Democracy in the ME - whether its in Israeli or Iraq (in time) - is a threat to the surrounding Autocracies. We are witnessing right now how they deal with a threat to their power from their own people. Their own people are, in my view, motivated to a great extent by the possibilities they see for a better future under a democratic system with their individual rights to live their lives as they see fit protected by the rule of Law. Israel and Iraq are examples right on their doorstep.
The UN is a sick joke - with all that is going on in Libya etc at the moment what did they do? Passed yet another resolution against Israel for building some apartments on 'occupied land'.
Human rights? Open your eyes oicur12.
70% of UN resolutions are against the only functioning and thriving democracy in the ME and ignore utterly the 'human rights' violations of every other state (all autocracies) in the region. Its long past time the west stopped funding the UN.
$100/barrel oil is as damaging to the world economy in its current fragile state as $150/barrel oil was a few short years ago.
A wider war in the ME - which I think is not far off - would send oil towards $200/barrel.
Is that reason enough for the west to go 'postal' in the ME?
We have been to war for less.
Has the west the capacity or heart to do so? Remains to be seen.
Weather wise we seem to be reliving the 70s - politically it feels like 1938.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: retirementland
Age: 79
Posts: 769
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
$100/boe - let the good times roll!
Its certainly good for the helicopter sector as it will push expo efforts to deepwater.
The Iranian naval movement into the Med is a worrying development and probably the reason the British PM is in Egypt.
Its certainly good for the helicopter sector as it will push expo efforts to deepwater.
The Iranian naval movement into the Med is a worrying development and probably the reason the British PM is in Egypt.
I am not for a second suggesting that the actions of religious nutters in KSR or Pakistan or Egypt or Libya should be condoned.
But I would caution against portraying Israel as a guiding light on the hill. Most experts of international law have condemned Israeli aggression on many occasions. Kill ratios 10 to 1 and sometimes 100 to 1. Civilians targeted by F-16’s dropping LGB’s and phosphorus. Denying settlers drinking water. The manufactured reasoning for fighting a proxy war with Lebanon recently. Shatila and Sabra. The list goes on.
“Saudis and Emirates are VERY worried about Iran.”
The Saudis are very worried . . . about Iranian off reservation oil deals that could hurt the Saudi coffers big time.
“Although I firmly believe western culture is superior to many cultures extant in the ME.”
Better FOR WHO? Since when was it a competition that required one to vanquish the other?
But I would caution against portraying Israel as a guiding light on the hill. Most experts of international law have condemned Israeli aggression on many occasions. Kill ratios 10 to 1 and sometimes 100 to 1. Civilians targeted by F-16’s dropping LGB’s and phosphorus. Denying settlers drinking water. The manufactured reasoning for fighting a proxy war with Lebanon recently. Shatila and Sabra. The list goes on.
“Saudis and Emirates are VERY worried about Iran.”
The Saudis are very worried . . . about Iranian off reservation oil deals that could hurt the Saudi coffers big time.
“Although I firmly believe western culture is superior to many cultures extant in the ME.”
Better FOR WHO? Since when was it a competition that required one to vanquish the other?
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: rangaville
Posts: 2,280
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Its long past time the west stopped funding the UN.
I believe the US refuses to pay up due to the rampant corruption within the UN
