Pilot shortage coming or Not??
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: In the sky, mostly
Posts: 47
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There was never really a shortage, just a surge in recruitment by the airlines following years of slow movement. This caused a lowering of experience levels temporarily in some ranks as people couldn't build hours quickly enough to meet historic levels before being promoted.
Any MORE pilots at the time would have been unemployed pilots.
This pattern may or may not be repeated for fleeting moments in the future.
Any MORE pilots at the time would have been unemployed pilots.
This pattern may or may not be repeated for fleeting moments in the future.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: back of the crew bus
Posts: 1,312
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Again - maybe not in Oz - but there was a very real shortage in the UK. That first airline I worked for cancelled flights every day for lack of crews, for months. The worst day, we had five aircraft parked because we just couldn't crew them. There was no such thing as a standby duty, every pilot worked max hours.
The other indicator from those days, is that my salary rose by over 38% in a year as they desperately tried to find pilots. And we aren't talking about experienced people - these were fresh CPL holders with minimum hours. The joke in those days was that all you needed to get into the third level carriers was a licence and a pulse.
The chances of it happening in Oz will increase as less and less people see aviation as a viable career. I would imagine that training has dropped right off over the last two years - it certainly has in NZ.
The other indicator from those days, is that my salary rose by over 38% in a year as they desperately tried to find pilots. And we aren't talking about experienced people - these were fresh CPL holders with minimum hours. The joke in those days was that all you needed to get into the third level carriers was a licence and a pulse.
The chances of it happening in Oz will increase as less and less people see aviation as a viable career. I would imagine that training has dropped right off over the last two years - it certainly has in NZ.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 95
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The first positive indication of a pilot shortage in Australia will be when the RFDS are forced to lower their minimum hours from 2500 to 1500 or less. And that ain't never gonna happen either.
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Enroute from Dagobah to Tatooine...!
Posts: 791
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
Yeah, but whether they will make the 'cut' or not is another question as RFDS will not, and can't afford to, lower their standards. The learning curve is an aweful lot steeper for someone with less hours. It would be sad if someone 'gets in' and struggles and subsequently fails when after more time and experience elsewhere they would otherwise make the grade. During the recent so-called pilot shortage I think there was an increase in the number of people in that situation even despite the 'shortage.'
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Permanently lost
Posts: 1,785
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A quote lifted from another forum site which I think sets the scene for the coming years. While it obviously refers to the US I do not think there is anything that I would disagree with in relation to Australia.
May 20, 2010
WASHINGTON — There are signs that future airline pilots will be less experienced, less ethical and in short supply, a panel of experts told an aviation safety forum on Tuesday.
While there are more pilots than there are airline jobs today, the reverse is likely to be true as airlines recover from the economic recession and begin hiring again, experts on pilot hiring and screening told the National Transportation Safety Board. The coming shortage may likely fall heaviest on regional airlines, who generally employ less-experienced pilots at lower salaries, they said.
There are about 54,000 pilots working for major airlines, nearly 19,000 regional airline pilots and about 2,500 qualified pilots available for hire in the U.S. today, said aviation consultant Judy Tarver, a former pilot recruiter for American Airlines. She estimated that airlines will need to hire about 42,090 pilots over the next decade, due to retirements and anticipated industry growth.
Panel members said there are far fewer military pilots leaving for jobs with airlines. Fewer college students say they want careers in aviation because they see it as an economic dead end, and airlines are increasingly having to compete with corporations for pilots.
The comments came as the safety board began a three-day forum on how to get more pilots and air traffic controllers to consistently strive for a high-level of professionalism. The impetus for the forum is a series of high-profile incidents over the past year in which the conduct and judgment of pilots and controllers have been called into question, including the crash of a regional airliner near Buffalo, N.Y., that killed 50 people.
The safety board said the crash occurred after the plane stalled because the pilot pulled back, instead of pushing forward, on a key piece of safety equipment. But they also cited a series of errors and unprofessional conduct by the pilot and first officer leading up to the accident.
Paul Rice, a pilot and spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association, said he was skeptical that a willingness to break rules and flout authority among younger pilots is any different than past generations of young pilots.
However, he said he shared the panel's concern that there will be a shortage of experienced pilots at regional airlines, which account for half of all domestic flights and are the only scheduled air service to about 400 communities.
Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said any pilot shortage won't affect safety because pilots are trained, certified and tested.
Airline travel today is safer than ever before, but the Buffalo crash and other incidents are warning signs that safety may be eroding because of an attitude of "casual compliance" by a minority of pilots, said Tony Kern, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel and author of five books on pilot performance.
Source: AP
WASHINGTON — There are signs that future airline pilots will be less experienced, less ethical and in short supply, a panel of experts told an aviation safety forum on Tuesday.
While there are more pilots than there are airline jobs today, the reverse is likely to be true as airlines recover from the economic recession and begin hiring again, experts on pilot hiring and screening told the National Transportation Safety Board. The coming shortage may likely fall heaviest on regional airlines, who generally employ less-experienced pilots at lower salaries, they said.
There are about 54,000 pilots working for major airlines, nearly 19,000 regional airline pilots and about 2,500 qualified pilots available for hire in the U.S. today, said aviation consultant Judy Tarver, a former pilot recruiter for American Airlines. She estimated that airlines will need to hire about 42,090 pilots over the next decade, due to retirements and anticipated industry growth.
Panel members said there are far fewer military pilots leaving for jobs with airlines. Fewer college students say they want careers in aviation because they see it as an economic dead end, and airlines are increasingly having to compete with corporations for pilots.
The comments came as the safety board began a three-day forum on how to get more pilots and air traffic controllers to consistently strive for a high-level of professionalism. The impetus for the forum is a series of high-profile incidents over the past year in which the conduct and judgment of pilots and controllers have been called into question, including the crash of a regional airliner near Buffalo, N.Y., that killed 50 people.
The safety board said the crash occurred after the plane stalled because the pilot pulled back, instead of pushing forward, on a key piece of safety equipment. But they also cited a series of errors and unprofessional conduct by the pilot and first officer leading up to the accident.
Paul Rice, a pilot and spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association, said he was skeptical that a willingness to break rules and flout authority among younger pilots is any different than past generations of young pilots.
However, he said he shared the panel's concern that there will be a shortage of experienced pilots at regional airlines, which account for half of all domestic flights and are the only scheduled air service to about 400 communities.
Roger Cohen, president of the Regional Airline Association, said any pilot shortage won't affect safety because pilots are trained, certified and tested.
Airline travel today is safer than ever before, but the Buffalo crash and other incidents are warning signs that safety may be eroding because of an attitude of "casual compliance" by a minority of pilots, said Tony Kern, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel and author of five books on pilot performance.
Source: AP
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Canberra, ACT
Posts: 83
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
When I first started towards aviation, Fortune 500 Magazine had just published an article entitled "Top 10 Sure Thing Jobs of the New Millennia!" Airline pilot was on that list. I always knew flying was going to be something I'd enjoy anyway, but I'd sure like to find that columnist now.....
Last edited by Roxy_Chick_1989; 21st May 2010 at 12:35.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,186
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
If you have a spare hundred grand in your pocket you could always try REX in Wagga where they train cadets on a PPL course leading to a CPL and right seat Saab 340. It is rumoured they prefer to hire low hour cadet F/O's over experienced GA pilots.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: low and heavy
Posts: 106
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I cant see how there wont be an Ag. pilot shortage in the future, probabley starting this Summer. Lots of areas with good water levels after the big Queensland rains. Alot of the companies servicing these areas wont be prepared for the higher than usual work load. Plus there aren't that many local Ag. pilots looking for work at present. I also know that the Ag. training schools haven't been doing many ratings lately. This means lots of empty Ag. seats.
If anyone has been considerering Ag. (although its not for everyone), now might be a good time to get involved.
If anyone has been considerering Ag. (although its not for everyone), now might be a good time to get involved.
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Victoria
Age: 62
Posts: 984
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
less ethical
Sorry for the hijack - we now return you back to your regular program.
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: On the equator
Posts: 1,291
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,186
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Alot of my instructor friends at YMMB and YMEN seem to be sitting around and not doing too much flying lately.
With swinburne/oxford, are the graduates garrenteed a flying position at the end? If not, then it's just another sausage factory, albeit with a fancy name!
You'll always get a fair number of people lured into the game. For most, the reality will be a CPL, with perhaps a degree, and with virtually no chance of gaining employment!
The CPL holders who eventually "make it', will be the types that have always struggled to the top against seemingly impossible odds. the problem is, it is those types that are becoming rare in our Must have it now, flying is so common place world.
You'll always get a fair number of people lured into the game. For most, the reality will be a CPL, with perhaps a degree, and with virtually no chance of gaining employment!
The CPL holders who eventually "make it', will be the types that have always struggled to the top against seemingly impossible odds. the problem is, it is those types that are becoming rare in our Must have it now, flying is so common place world.
Last edited by KRUSTY 34; 23rd May 2010 at 01:52.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: north of nowhere
Age: 34
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dont see why RFDS wont drop their mins now that they are operating 208s. Does not require a 3000hr pilot with huge amounts of night and IF experience to fly a 208 by day on the clinic runs.
For the king air and PC12 aeromedical ops, well thats another story and the mins are more than likely not negotiable.
Wonder how long it will take before the RFDS bean counters realise that they dont have to pay 95k a year for a caravan driver and start recruiting lower time guys to do the clinic runs.
As for the pilot shortage. Bring it on!
I do know that Cairns Seaplanes are currently suffering a pilot shortage. That is more to do with the fact that no one can tolerate the Gen Manager though. 7 pilots in 18 months all with the same issues with the same person. CP is all on his own at the moment and word is that he is also looking at other options.
For the king air and PC12 aeromedical ops, well thats another story and the mins are more than likely not negotiable.
Wonder how long it will take before the RFDS bean counters realise that they dont have to pay 95k a year for a caravan driver and start recruiting lower time guys to do the clinic runs.
As for the pilot shortage. Bring it on!
I do know that Cairns Seaplanes are currently suffering a pilot shortage. That is more to do with the fact that no one can tolerate the Gen Manager though. 7 pilots in 18 months all with the same issues with the same person. CP is all on his own at the moment and word is that he is also looking at other options.
Originally Posted by chimbu warrior
Will it be this week?
