AUS GA- the state in 2015
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AUS GA- the state in 2015
In light of the recent release of the White Paper, the withdrawal of various aerodromes, refueling services, possible SIDs on most Cessnas, lack of skilled staff inc engineers, low rates of return on investment hampering new aircraft purchases, bad business models, etc etc I thought I would kick off a thread where anyone can pipe and and describe where they think GA in this country will be in 5 or more years time.
5 years is not too far away to predict and enough imagination and speculation is possible to make it interesting.
I think we can all see certain trends, I hope this might stimulate a bit of discussion. Perhaps it might even fall on influential ears.
I think in 5 years there will be:
a further 30% reduction in aerodromes
an increase in red tape and overregulation (yes more than now)
a reduction in the number of small businesses in GA
less flying schools but they will be bigger and foreign owned
at least one serious accident involving a PA-31 or similar due age resulting in CASA overreacting
pvt GA dying or dead replaced by RAA with limited power but overburdened with responsibility
No avgas at most aerodromes in regional areas
That's just to start the debate.
SC
5 years is not too far away to predict and enough imagination and speculation is possible to make it interesting.
I think we can all see certain trends, I hope this might stimulate a bit of discussion. Perhaps it might even fall on influential ears.
I think in 5 years there will be:
a further 30% reduction in aerodromes
an increase in red tape and overregulation (yes more than now)
a reduction in the number of small businesses in GA
less flying schools but they will be bigger and foreign owned
at least one serious accident involving a PA-31 or similar due age resulting in CASA overreacting
pvt GA dying or dead replaced by RAA with limited power but overburdened with responsibility
No avgas at most aerodromes in regional areas
That's just to start the debate.
SC
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 77
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
So long as CASA choose to follow the European regs, GA will continue to die. There is no way you can have the same set of rules for a 747 and a 172!! Go to Europe and the UK and see for yourself!
A replacement for Avgas will have to be sourced and put into production - at what cost ?
GA as we know it now will only survive at small private airfields where it is not killed by security and CASA red tape!
As for long distance trips... well that will depend on supply of fuel and how much you can fit in the tank.
The average age of LAME's is now well over 50 and will continue to get higher. New engineers with few exceptions will aim for the larger companies with some future and perhaps security of employment (??). This will obviously increase costs to owners!
Never in the history of aviation does GA need to get together and make noise and influence votes. It is a do or die effort. I think however many have already left the run too late........ trust I am wroing!
A replacement for Avgas will have to be sourced and put into production - at what cost ?
GA as we know it now will only survive at small private airfields where it is not killed by security and CASA red tape!
As for long distance trips... well that will depend on supply of fuel and how much you can fit in the tank.
The average age of LAME's is now well over 50 and will continue to get higher. New engineers with few exceptions will aim for the larger companies with some future and perhaps security of employment (??). This will obviously increase costs to owners!
Never in the history of aviation does GA need to get together and make noise and influence votes. It is a do or die effort. I think however many have already left the run too late........ trust I am wroing!
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 308
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A serious decay in the standard of flying instruction.
- 'Career' grade 1 and 2 instructors are less likely to hang around with an increase in the number of hoops they are required to jump through.
- Potential grade 3 instructors are less likely to give instructing a shot once they realise everything that needs to be conquered just to gain an initial-issue, then realise they need to go through it all again in 6-12 months time to progress their career. Once the jobs 'up north' become more plentiful, why would you fork out $15K to do an instructor rating?
- The upcoming pilot shortage and faster career progression will only increase many instructor's motiviation to 'get the hell out of dodge'. Less Grade 1 instructors mean less know-how passed down to the 2s and 3s.
- GAAP to Class D will increase the operating costs for many flying schools with little or no increase in safety benefit. Amongst other things this will eventually force down staff wages causing more disharmony.
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NSW
Posts: 436
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
So long as CASA choose to follow the European regs, GA will continue to die. There is no way you can have the same set of rules for a 747 and a 172!! Go to Europe and the UK and see for yourself!
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Alabama, then Wyoming, then Idaho and now staying with Kharon on Styx houseboat
Age: 61
Posts: 1,437
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Agreed
Never in the history of aviation does GA need to get together and make noise and influence votes. It is a do or die effort. I think however many have already left the run too late........ trust I am wroing!
If there is enough push and pressure by the majority then change will be forced,it has been proven over and over throughout history.
Also 'stunting' is a poltical practise which basically involves Governemnt sitting on their hands until forced to act.The Government is aware of the deficiencies in Aviation,and also aware that it is going to take a lot of coin to start fixing the problem,but they will not budge an inch so long as the issue is buried or can be deflected.With enough voice singing the same song they will listen,especially if they perceive a threat to their long term political career if they do not act on behalf of the masses,they fear nothing more than losing their highly prized gravy train.
I think in 5 years there will be: a further 30% reduction in aerodromes
In the last 35 years, the only aerodrome that I can think of that has closed is Surfers Paradise.
Dr
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Enroute from Dagobah to Tatooine...!
Posts: 791
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
FTDK, a few more would be: Schofields, Hoxton Park, Cooranbong, Aeropelican, Warnervale (potentially). That's just a few NSW ones off the top of my head, I'm sure there are plenty more...
Not to mention closing of runways at Bankstown and Archerfield and significant threats/restrictions/drooling by property developers looming over other places.
Not to mention closing of runways at Bankstown and Archerfield and significant threats/restrictions/drooling by property developers looming over other places.
Have to agree with the Doc, I cant see places to land being a problem, but AVGAS, Ahhhhh, that's another problem and I see it as being the biggest one. Dont actually see LAME's as being a problem either, coz I dont believe there is any shortage of them. 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The state of play in five years time is interesting, but my experience this last week may help understand where we're heading.
I'm the holder of a PPL and on Monday I booked my aircraft hire online for the Saturday. On Friday I received a courtesy call from the flying school to confirm my booking.
On Saturday I arrived at the flying school to be met by a member of the ground team who always greet hirers to answer any last minute questions they may have. I then walked out to the aircraft, which had been refuelled based on my booking, and had obviously been cleaned inside and out. Even though it was 2 years old the aircraft looks and smells like new.
With the glass cockpit, safety parachute and airbags installed I feel confident in the modern technology available. My confidence is further increased through the friendly and processional training I have received over the years earlier to prepare me for any inflight emergency, however unlikely…
If you haven't already guessed the above three paragraphs are complete fiction. I'm in my 40's, not a career pilot, but I enjoy flying and have some disposable income available for this hobby. However, I really feel that flying schools, clubs and organisations need to raise their game - considerably.
If you hire a car for say $200 you'll be treated in a manner not unlike that described above. If you hire an aircraft for a weekend, at an investment of several thousand dollars your typically presented with a dirty 30 year old aircraft with unserviceable instruments and vastly lacking in safety features compared to the car you drove to the airport in. Online bookings are few and far between, and sadly the customer service skills also date to the time to when your aircraft was built.
My flight training supplier is probably the only business I have spent not a small amount of dollars with and do not get a courtesy call (let alone a christmas card) if I don't fly for a couple of months. It would be an easy way for them to get a booking for a few hours use of an aircraft.
When I read a description of an instructor along the lines of "If you are of delicate disposition and are lacking in truth-handling facilities, best move on." I can only feel such instructors are best to move on. Some people fly for fun and sarcastic bullying pilots/instructors will not get repeat custom yet each flying school seems to have at least one.
GA need not look much further than their own flying schools if they wish to understand why GA hours have dropped. Yes, there are external factors making the industry tough but great customer service and clean working aircraft (even if they are 30 years old) would go a long way towards getting at least this one PPL back into an aircraft and probably many more.
I'm the holder of a PPL and on Monday I booked my aircraft hire online for the Saturday. On Friday I received a courtesy call from the flying school to confirm my booking.
On Saturday I arrived at the flying school to be met by a member of the ground team who always greet hirers to answer any last minute questions they may have. I then walked out to the aircraft, which had been refuelled based on my booking, and had obviously been cleaned inside and out. Even though it was 2 years old the aircraft looks and smells like new.
With the glass cockpit, safety parachute and airbags installed I feel confident in the modern technology available. My confidence is further increased through the friendly and processional training I have received over the years earlier to prepare me for any inflight emergency, however unlikely…
If you haven't already guessed the above three paragraphs are complete fiction. I'm in my 40's, not a career pilot, but I enjoy flying and have some disposable income available for this hobby. However, I really feel that flying schools, clubs and organisations need to raise their game - considerably.
If you hire a car for say $200 you'll be treated in a manner not unlike that described above. If you hire an aircraft for a weekend, at an investment of several thousand dollars your typically presented with a dirty 30 year old aircraft with unserviceable instruments and vastly lacking in safety features compared to the car you drove to the airport in. Online bookings are few and far between, and sadly the customer service skills also date to the time to when your aircraft was built.
My flight training supplier is probably the only business I have spent not a small amount of dollars with and do not get a courtesy call (let alone a christmas card) if I don't fly for a couple of months. It would be an easy way for them to get a booking for a few hours use of an aircraft.
When I read a description of an instructor along the lines of "If you are of delicate disposition and are lacking in truth-handling facilities, best move on." I can only feel such instructors are best to move on. Some people fly for fun and sarcastic bullying pilots/instructors will not get repeat custom yet each flying school seems to have at least one.
GA need not look much further than their own flying schools if they wish to understand why GA hours have dropped. Yes, there are external factors making the industry tough but great customer service and clean working aircraft (even if they are 30 years old) would go a long way towards getting at least this one PPL back into an aircraft and probably many more.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Moree, NSW, Australia
Posts: 100
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
and sadly the customer service skills also date to the time to when your aircraft was built
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 394
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Excellent points being made.
Ftdk: you can add Aeropelican now closed and owned by Meriton or Mirvac...
Rutherford apparently earmarked also.
Plenty of other battles always going on- Evans Head for example. Developers will keep pushing and will win some.
There will be places to land but you might have a long drive following...
There will be a shortage of pilots. Will it be filled by foreign imports because the pathetic wages our gen y will simply laugh at?
I for one would actually like to hear from Dick Smith - perhaps his experience might actually be really useful in this discussion (with all due respect, not stirring here).
Ftdk: you can add Aeropelican now closed and owned by Meriton or Mirvac...
Rutherford apparently earmarked also.
Plenty of other battles always going on- Evans Head for example. Developers will keep pushing and will win some.
There will be places to land but you might have a long drive following...
There will be a shortage of pilots. Will it be filled by foreign imports because the pathetic wages our gen y will simply laugh at?
I for one would actually like to hear from Dick Smith - perhaps his experience might actually be really useful in this discussion (with all due respect, not stirring here).
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Alabama, then Wyoming, then Idaho and now staying with Kharon on Styx houseboat
Age: 61
Posts: 1,437
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dick
Hi sprocket,
I agree with your mention of Dick.
He has actually started a GA post already in this area. I am hoping the MOD's might merge a couple of the threads as they are all along the same line of discussion and producing some interesting discussions.
I have stated previously in regard to Dick,whether you love him or hate him, he does have an element of clout that some people in the higher circles listen to, occasionally.I am sure that if Dick was willing to talk to the media and present a logical argument then the media would run his story. I reckon that deep down he would be itching to give a spray about the current GA situation, he could probably do with a show of support.Thoughts ?
I agree with your mention of Dick.
He has actually started a GA post already in this area. I am hoping the MOD's might merge a couple of the threads as they are all along the same line of discussion and producing some interesting discussions.
I have stated previously in regard to Dick,whether you love him or hate him, he does have an element of clout that some people in the higher circles listen to, occasionally.I am sure that if Dick was willing to talk to the media and present a logical argument then the media would run his story. I reckon that deep down he would be itching to give a spray about the current GA situation, he could probably do with a show of support.Thoughts ?
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Hiding between the Animal Bar and the Suave Bar
Posts: 409
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Agree with some of your sentiments, but not the first and last two points.
As some airports have closed, others have strengthened. Look at the huge growth at Wedderburn now that Hoxton Park has closed. Cooranbong closed, but there are plenty of options in that same area. I heard a rumour (it's ppRune, after all !!) that Warnervale is going to the developers in exchange for Pelican. It's not impossible ... Look at the fight, driven by the local business community, to keep The Oaks free of an antenna tower. Can't think of a single aerodrome that's closed in my usual stamping ground (Far North Queensland)
I have no confidence at all that RAA is in any position to take over GA, and CASA's recent decisions reinforce that. It may be that RAA would like to do so, but like-to and doing-so are a very long way apart. RAA is a good approach to private aviation, but it's certainly not an appropriate launching pad for a commercial career.
I also believe that there'll continue to be sufficient supply of avgas. It's a supply-and-demand/economics thing, but while there's demand there will be someone who sees benefit in supplying. I'll even predict that the price will continue to be affordable.
I do not believe that DS has experience that can help us here. He has strong opinions and plenty of money, but so do all politicians and it isn't the same thing at all (rather obviously).
Feel free to quote this post back to me in 5 years.
As some airports have closed, others have strengthened. Look at the huge growth at Wedderburn now that Hoxton Park has closed. Cooranbong closed, but there are plenty of options in that same area. I heard a rumour (it's ppRune, after all !!) that Warnervale is going to the developers in exchange for Pelican. It's not impossible ... Look at the fight, driven by the local business community, to keep The Oaks free of an antenna tower. Can't think of a single aerodrome that's closed in my usual stamping ground (Far North Queensland)
I have no confidence at all that RAA is in any position to take over GA, and CASA's recent decisions reinforce that. It may be that RAA would like to do so, but like-to and doing-so are a very long way apart. RAA is a good approach to private aviation, but it's certainly not an appropriate launching pad for a commercial career.
I also believe that there'll continue to be sufficient supply of avgas. It's a supply-and-demand/economics thing, but while there's demand there will be someone who sees benefit in supplying. I'll even predict that the price will continue to be affordable.
I do not believe that DS has experience that can help us here. He has strong opinions and plenty of money, but so do all politicians and it isn't the same thing at all (rather obviously).
Feel free to quote this post back to me in 5 years.
GA will be the same in 5 years as it is now. The same krusty old farts will still be there poling around their complex machinery that require exceptional flying skills to ever hope to get ahead of. On the flipside a new generation of ego sporting young pilots will be on watch moaning about the same crap we all have since the word GA was coined.
There will always be more dreamers prepared to loose more money than has ever been made in aviation and the Airlines will still be in a fragile balance of boom and bust. The only difference I see in 5 years will be less opportunity for an unscrupulous operator to make a quick buck (due to the regulator) However there will be new oportunities in the LSA catagory. The only operators that will be around will be the ones who invest in their staff, their fleet and their business and associated facilities.
Hardy in Darwin are a good example, they keep growing and growing adding more and more complex machines to the fleet while maintaining a high standard and reputation. Skytrans were in this boat when they had the large piston fleet and other companies like Sharp Airlines, Karratha Flying Services and Shine Aviation are great examples of how to grow and manage a GA business.
GG
There will always be more dreamers prepared to loose more money than has ever been made in aviation and the Airlines will still be in a fragile balance of boom and bust. The only difference I see in 5 years will be less opportunity for an unscrupulous operator to make a quick buck (due to the regulator) However there will be new oportunities in the LSA catagory. The only operators that will be around will be the ones who invest in their staff, their fleet and their business and associated facilities.
Hardy in Darwin are a good example, they keep growing and growing adding more and more complex machines to the fleet while maintaining a high standard and reputation. Skytrans were in this boat when they had the large piston fleet and other companies like Sharp Airlines, Karratha Flying Services and Shine Aviation are great examples of how to grow and manage a GA business.
GG
My crystal ball tells me: Within 5 years (already?) it will not be viable to be in the piston-engine charter business. Corporate customers will not accept any piston engine aircraft, and probably no turbine aircraft more than 20 years old. They won't have to, because the more progressive players in the industry are already moving to better equipment.
A 20 year old piston twin will be almost worthless, except those that fit a very limited training purpose (see below) and then only if they have been upgraded to glass cockpit.
Piston engines that run on MOGAS will become the backbone of the single-engine training industry, simply because turbines are too costly for that segment to bear.
We will see more 'plastic' aeroplanes with glass cockpits replacing the 'tin' ones currently in the training fleet - in fact for commercial training that is all we will see. The only pilots who will hire or operate analog aircraft will likely be recreational pilots over 60 years old (me, for example). Schools who do not embrace this new generation of training aircraft will be unable to attract customers and will certainly not be in the business of training foreign students.
Within 10 years the single-pilot command instrument rating will all but disappear in favour of the MPL. The CIR or something like it will survive mostly as a niche exercise for the limited upper end of the owner-pilot market. Most wanting a flying career won't even consider it - they will do the MPL.
Any pilot shortages will be transient, as they always are.
Pilot experience levels will drop, and operators will move the goalposts in response, and to accommodate supply and demand. Nothing new there.
With better equipment in our cockpits, and proper training, pilot-error accidents should decrease; however we will continue to have fatal accidents in the lighter end of the air transport sector; maybe more so as the fleet ages and until it is finally upgraded. Also, the longer we go without a big one, the closer we are to having it. Not 'if' but 'when'.......
A 20 year old piston twin will be almost worthless, except those that fit a very limited training purpose (see below) and then only if they have been upgraded to glass cockpit.
Piston engines that run on MOGAS will become the backbone of the single-engine training industry, simply because turbines are too costly for that segment to bear.
We will see more 'plastic' aeroplanes with glass cockpits replacing the 'tin' ones currently in the training fleet - in fact for commercial training that is all we will see. The only pilots who will hire or operate analog aircraft will likely be recreational pilots over 60 years old (me, for example). Schools who do not embrace this new generation of training aircraft will be unable to attract customers and will certainly not be in the business of training foreign students.
Within 10 years the single-pilot command instrument rating will all but disappear in favour of the MPL. The CIR or something like it will survive mostly as a niche exercise for the limited upper end of the owner-pilot market. Most wanting a flying career won't even consider it - they will do the MPL.
Any pilot shortages will be transient, as they always are.
Pilot experience levels will drop, and operators will move the goalposts in response, and to accommodate supply and demand. Nothing new there.
With better equipment in our cockpits, and proper training, pilot-error accidents should decrease; however we will continue to have fatal accidents in the lighter end of the air transport sector; maybe more so as the fleet ages and until it is finally upgraded. Also, the longer we go without a big one, the closer we are to having it. Not 'if' but 'when'.......
so true.