Will we see pilot employment at the same levels again?
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Will we see pilot employment at the same levels again?
Hi
Do any of the more experienced indusrty people reading this thread think we will see the huge demand for pilots that we had in the last few years again. Will companies like REX and Qantaslink take on pilots with 700 - 800 hrs again, or do you think those days are now behind us for the foreseeable future. Has that Golden window of opportunity shut for the time being?? I hope not, but any guesses? I get a little scared that they say the global economy will actually keep getting worse over the 12 months, hope this is incorrect.
Do any of the more experienced indusrty people reading this thread think we will see the huge demand for pilots that we had in the last few years again. Will companies like REX and Qantaslink take on pilots with 700 - 800 hrs again, or do you think those days are now behind us for the foreseeable future. Has that Golden window of opportunity shut for the time being?? I hope not, but any guesses? I get a little scared that they say the global economy will actually keep getting worse over the 12 months, hope this is incorrect.
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To be brutally honest it'll be yeears before we see the majors recruit like that again. Optimistically it'll take a year or so before we see a recovery getting any sort of momentum then they'll probably grow at the long term average for a while.
Look at it from a financial perspective (because $$$ drives everything). FY06 PBT was $671m, FY07 PBT was $1b, FY08 it was $1.4b, (pretty decent growth rate right?) guidance for FY09 is "around $500m subject to no significant changes in the market" (and that's a bit optimistic) and that's mostly from QFF and J*, not mainline.
In terms of pilot recruitment once they start hiring regularly again (which will hopefully be during 2010) it'll be at normal levels. If we make it back to the crazy levels you're referring to it won't be for a few years after that.
Last growth period for QF was 5 years before they started taking pilots at the level you're talking about and the down turn wasn't anywhere as sever as this one. I do think the pilot shortage will hit quicker once they start expanding again but at the same time profitability (therefore growth) is starting from a lower base so it'll take longer to recover.
Look at it from a financial perspective (because $$$ drives everything). FY06 PBT was $671m, FY07 PBT was $1b, FY08 it was $1.4b, (pretty decent growth rate right?) guidance for FY09 is "around $500m subject to no significant changes in the market" (and that's a bit optimistic) and that's mostly from QFF and J*, not mainline.
In terms of pilot recruitment once they start hiring regularly again (which will hopefully be during 2010) it'll be at normal levels. If we make it back to the crazy levels you're referring to it won't be for a few years after that.
Last growth period for QF was 5 years before they started taking pilots at the level you're talking about and the down turn wasn't anywhere as sever as this one. I do think the pilot shortage will hit quicker once they start expanding again but at the same time profitability (therefore growth) is starting from a lower base so it'll take longer to recover.
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The Wheel Turns
Yes we will see a return to previous levels. All of these economic events are cyclic in nature. The only question that no person can answer with certainty is how long it will take. I do think that for aspiring airline pilots it won't take long at all because before the bust the demand was greater than the supply by a long shot. Hang in there.
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Well actually I have a different take on it. I don't believe we will see those level of pilot recruitment again in our lifetimes. The only reason it happened was what has now been shown to articifial growth in the stockmarkets of the world, in Australia we had the resources boom at the same time and we also had a so called "shortage" of pilots (which I still stick by my premis that it was only a shortage of people who met the inflated minimums of many Australian companies). Essentially it was many many factors which superposed upon each other and created an artificial demand for pilots.
Now we have returned to sanity the level of demand now is about the same as it always was (maybe a little less?) but new guys coming in might just have to do the hard yards in GA and get 2500+TT and 1000+ ME again rather than getting fast tracked to the airlines and being picked up with 500+TT.
So to summarise, no we will not see it again in our lifetimes and once again, only those really really keen will get to the jobs after doing their apprenticeship in the dusty outback.
Anyway thats just my two cents, and I was wrong once...
Edited to add, apologies for the spelling, one to many JD's right at the moment!
Now we have returned to sanity the level of demand now is about the same as it always was (maybe a little less?) but new guys coming in might just have to do the hard yards in GA and get 2500+TT and 1000+ ME again rather than getting fast tracked to the airlines and being picked up with 500+TT.
So to summarise, no we will not see it again in our lifetimes and once again, only those really really keen will get to the jobs after doing their apprenticeship in the dusty outback.
Anyway thats just my two cents, and I was wrong once...
Edited to add, apologies for the spelling, one to many JD's right at the moment!
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don't forget that there is still a "lot of grey" at the top of most seniority lists. These "more experienced" chaps are all due to retire in a few years, and maybe hanging on till better economic times.... which, I agree won't be TOO far away.(late 2010 would be my guess)
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I agree with apache, alot of the old school would be happy to walk away from the game but with their pot of cash in super heading south, they are sticking it out till they have recouped the money and the arrow heads north
I'd be fascinated to see a graph showing the age distribution you guys are talking about.
It's not that I doubt you - I'd just like to see it.
I suspect the airline management have worked all this out for themselves too, which is why you see them falling over each other to establish bases in NZ
When the power level gets pushed forward in HR again, the cost of "fuel" will be much lower than it is today.
I notice the TWU got plenty of media attention today, engaging in industrial action over 100 Jetstar jobs being contracted out.
Since there are more than 100 pilot jobs moving offshore, and the loss of earnings to their members will be greater than that suffered by the TWU members in question, I suppose the AFAP will be taking similar action?
... surely?
It's not that I doubt you - I'd just like to see it.
I suspect the airline management have worked all this out for themselves too, which is why you see them falling over each other to establish bases in NZ
When the power level gets pushed forward in HR again, the cost of "fuel" will be much lower than it is today.
I notice the TWU got plenty of media attention today, engaging in industrial action over 100 Jetstar jobs being contracted out.
Since there are more than 100 pilot jobs moving offshore, and the loss of earnings to their members will be greater than that suffered by the TWU members in question, I suppose the AFAP will be taking similar action?
... surely?
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I agree with apache, alot of the old school would be happy to walk away from the game but with their pot of cash in super heading south, they are sticking it out till they have recouped the money and the arrow heads north
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Do you think it will take 2000+ and 500M/E to get a Regional gig in the future once the recovery occurs?
If so God knows what sort of hours are going to be needed to get into the Majors??
I wonder if that perfect storm will ever come back, lots of Jobs, not enough pilots and plenty of retirements of the horizon.
If so God knows what sort of hours are going to be needed to get into the Majors??
I wonder if that perfect storm will ever come back, lots of Jobs, not enough pilots and plenty of retirements of the horizon.
Ah, Tinnie, dontcha just love these young financial academics? 
If they can't get a flying job they are guaranteed a Government financial advisor position with KRudd747!
How many "ups and downs" of the pilot job yo-yo and prophets of doom have you seen over the last 40 years?
Based on current aircraft orders, even with a few cancellations, there are flying jobs out there - go look!
If they can't get a flying job they are guaranteed a Government financial advisor position with KRudd747!
How many "ups and downs" of the pilot job yo-yo and prophets of doom have you seen over the last 40 years?
Based on current aircraft orders, even with a few cancellations, there are flying jobs out there - go look!
not enough pilots and plenty of retirements of the horizon.
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My theory is the good times will return better than before, and for the following reasons:
Due to the current ongoing financial woes, less people have the money or the credit to spend it as at a flying school training, for a job that is more scarce than ever.
The conditions at the moment will not be attracting new pilots as they used to, either.
Airline cadet training will begin to drop off due to demand. In fact this has already begin at some euro-airlines. These three factors will have a large impact on the junior end of the pilot career stream, in GA, regionals and the majors.
At the top end of the stream, the silverbacks will continue to reach resignation age whilst the above takes place.
So the stream will be eaten away at both ends.
Meanwhile, the downturn will eventually turn around, as they always do, and when it does, there will be more people than before populating the world and wanting to be flown from A to B.
At the same time, there will be less (numerically and proportionally) experienced pilots in the world.
Result: Happy Days.
The longer the downturn goes on, the bigger the deficit in pilot numbers will be when it ends, at least according to my theory.
What can ruin it for us longer-term is war. Iran, Pakistan, China.... take your pic!
Due to the current ongoing financial woes, less people have the money or the credit to spend it as at a flying school training, for a job that is more scarce than ever.
The conditions at the moment will not be attracting new pilots as they used to, either.
Airline cadet training will begin to drop off due to demand. In fact this has already begin at some euro-airlines. These three factors will have a large impact on the junior end of the pilot career stream, in GA, regionals and the majors.
At the top end of the stream, the silverbacks will continue to reach resignation age whilst the above takes place.
So the stream will be eaten away at both ends.
Meanwhile, the downturn will eventually turn around, as they always do, and when it does, there will be more people than before populating the world and wanting to be flown from A to B.
At the same time, there will be less (numerically and proportionally) experienced pilots in the world.
Result: Happy Days.
The longer the downturn goes on, the bigger the deficit in pilot numbers will be when it ends, at least according to my theory.
What can ruin it for us longer-term is war. Iran, Pakistan, China.... take your pic!
Last edited by YoDawg; 6th May 2009 at 13:55. Reason: clarification