Weather Decision Making
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Weather Decision Making
Gents
I would like to pose a question regarding flying in bad weather. Currently I am a VFR pilot who is about to sit the MECIR test. I am a low hour pilot and as such would like to find out your opinions from personal experience.
The following weather brief is from the inflight breakup accident last year.
Please Note: I do not want this thread to turn into “what was done right what was done wrong” etc. with regards to that accident. I don’t want any debate on this accident at all. I am only using this weather forecast as an example to see what ‘you’ would do when reading a forecast such as this. Due to the fact I have not flown in conditions such as these I would like some advice so that when the time comes I am able to make better decisions for myself.
So my questions are these: Would you fly in the area with this forecast? Would you wait on the ground and wait till the forecast is better? Would you divert around the area and take the long way around? What would your thought processes be when reading this forecast?
Thanks for your input guys.
Weather
A Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast for Areas 30 and 324, valid for a 12-hour period from 1500, indicated strong and gusty northerly winds to prevail ahead of the passage of a cold front. North to north-westerly winds of 40 kts up to an altitude of 10,000 ft were forecast. Severe turbulence and mountain wave activity were expected as a result of the vigorous northerly flow. The front was not forecast to pass through the area until 0300 the next morning. Isolated thunderstorms associated with the passage of the front were forecast over the sea, in the southern part of the forecast area. The freezing level was between 6,500 ft in the south-west, grading to 8,000 ft in the north-east.
A SIGMET5 (ML02), associated with the forecast, and valid from 1800, extended the validity of an earlier issued SIGMET (ML01) that forecast severe turbulence below 8,000 ft near and south of the ranges. Concurrently, another SIGMET (ML03), issued at 1727 and valid from 1800, warned of occasional severe mountain wave turbulence in the area between 5,000 ft and FL140, with intensity increasing.
Bureau of Meteorology forecasters advised that the existence of concurrent SIGMET information in the same area resulted from different meteorological phenomena associated with the strong wind. The first (ML02) warned of mechanical turbulence over and in the lee of the ranges and the second (ML03) warned of mountain wave activity within the air mass and covered a similar broadly defined area. The BoM advised that the existence of concurrent SIGMET warnings of turbulence could not necessarily be interpreted as having an accumulative affect in the overlapping areas and altitudes.
Two pilots flying other company Aero Commander aircraft landed at Essendon within the 30 minutes prior to the departure of YJB for Shepparton. Neither pilot reported encountering any significant turbulence except on final approach. Pilots arriving or departing from the Melbourne area at the time of the accident reported actual wind speeds in excess of 40 kts, but none experienced any significant turbulence. The crew of a fixed-wing search aircraft reported that in the wreckage area, there was significant, continuous turbulence at altitudes between 5,000 and 6,400 ft during the search. They reported the cloud as broken (5 to 7 OKTAS6), between 3,500 and 6,000 ft.
Surface wind gusts to 50 kts were reported on the ranges during the afternoon. Residents living near the accident site reported very strong wind conditions, of the kind experienced on only a few occasions a year. They reported that at the time of the accident there was bright moonlight, even with the frequent cloud movement obscuring it. Conditions were reported as clear and there was no precipitation.
I would like to pose a question regarding flying in bad weather. Currently I am a VFR pilot who is about to sit the MECIR test. I am a low hour pilot and as such would like to find out your opinions from personal experience.
The following weather brief is from the inflight breakup accident last year.
Please Note: I do not want this thread to turn into “what was done right what was done wrong” etc. with regards to that accident. I don’t want any debate on this accident at all. I am only using this weather forecast as an example to see what ‘you’ would do when reading a forecast such as this. Due to the fact I have not flown in conditions such as these I would like some advice so that when the time comes I am able to make better decisions for myself.
So my questions are these: Would you fly in the area with this forecast? Would you wait on the ground and wait till the forecast is better? Would you divert around the area and take the long way around? What would your thought processes be when reading this forecast?
Thanks for your input guys.
Weather
A Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast for Areas 30 and 324, valid for a 12-hour period from 1500, indicated strong and gusty northerly winds to prevail ahead of the passage of a cold front. North to north-westerly winds of 40 kts up to an altitude of 10,000 ft were forecast. Severe turbulence and mountain wave activity were expected as a result of the vigorous northerly flow. The front was not forecast to pass through the area until 0300 the next morning. Isolated thunderstorms associated with the passage of the front were forecast over the sea, in the southern part of the forecast area. The freezing level was between 6,500 ft in the south-west, grading to 8,000 ft in the north-east.
A SIGMET5 (ML02), associated with the forecast, and valid from 1800, extended the validity of an earlier issued SIGMET (ML01) that forecast severe turbulence below 8,000 ft near and south of the ranges. Concurrently, another SIGMET (ML03), issued at 1727 and valid from 1800, warned of occasional severe mountain wave turbulence in the area between 5,000 ft and FL140, with intensity increasing.
Bureau of Meteorology forecasters advised that the existence of concurrent SIGMET information in the same area resulted from different meteorological phenomena associated with the strong wind. The first (ML02) warned of mechanical turbulence over and in the lee of the ranges and the second (ML03) warned of mountain wave activity within the air mass and covered a similar broadly defined area. The BoM advised that the existence of concurrent SIGMET warnings of turbulence could not necessarily be interpreted as having an accumulative affect in the overlapping areas and altitudes.
Two pilots flying other company Aero Commander aircraft landed at Essendon within the 30 minutes prior to the departure of YJB for Shepparton. Neither pilot reported encountering any significant turbulence except on final approach. Pilots arriving or departing from the Melbourne area at the time of the accident reported actual wind speeds in excess of 40 kts, but none experienced any significant turbulence. The crew of a fixed-wing search aircraft reported that in the wreckage area, there was significant, continuous turbulence at altitudes between 5,000 and 6,400 ft during the search. They reported the cloud as broken (5 to 7 OKTAS6), between 3,500 and 6,000 ft.
Surface wind gusts to 50 kts were reported on the ranges during the afternoon. Residents living near the accident site reported very strong wind conditions, of the kind experienced on only a few occasions a year. They reported that at the time of the accident there was bright moonlight, even with the frequent cloud movement obscuring it. Conditions were reported as clear and there was no precipitation.
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In what aircraft? A "Mander", or something that can go higher? Working knowledge of the area/region? Working radar? Tired? Plenty of fuel on board? Alternates looking nasty? Going home or first leg 
Boxes or people on board?
I hate to be the devils advocate, but I have elected to go under such conditions (Metro III). I'm fairly certian that I've elected not to on a few occasions as well, due to some of the above, and perhaps other considerations.
It is never right or wrong, just seems so when it goes wrong for unlucky and unfortunate souls.
Aviate with hubris and within ones means.
Boxes or people on board? I hate to be the devils advocate, but I have elected to go under such conditions (Metro III). I'm fairly certian that I've elected not to on a few occasions as well, due to some of the above, and perhaps other considerations.
It is never right or wrong, just seems so when it goes wrong for unlucky and unfortunate souls.
Aviate with hubris and within ones means.
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Thanks Mr Proach
Straight up I get a good answer. As I dont work charter yet these are things that I wasnt expecting. I was looking more at the side of do I or dont I in regards to just the weather.
Obviously flying is more than one part and shows why you always have to be on your game.
Thanks for the input.
Straight up I get a good answer. As I dont work charter yet these are things that I wasnt expecting. I was looking more at the side of do I or dont I in regards to just the weather.
Obviously flying is more than one part and shows why you always have to be on your game.
Thanks for the input.
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"av8" I see that yr going from VFR flying to perhaps IFR chtr. If & I say If you are also going from PVT to Commercial there in lies the challenge.
You see if that's the case then as a PVt pilot conducting VFR flights then 99% of the time you don't 'have' to fly. Where as Commercial there's always an element of 'have to' about that level of business.
I'm not even going to read yr mentioned wx elements you don't need me or anyone else to tell you that in that particular case the wx was awful!
There was no 'right or wrong' in that case.
So in answer to yr several questions which I might add are very difficult to give an accurate answer to 'cause we humans all think different (thank God !) Where one pilot might thro caution to the wind & stay grounded another might believe that apart from a rough ride the task at hand should be aviatable (if there's such a word!).
The only way for any pilot to learn this type of decision making is thru experience, (remembver no 2 days are exactly the same wx wise either)that part of flying can't be replaced with just questions & answers from various pilots. You can however base yr decision/s on others outcomes of circumstances such as the one we read here with yr questions 'till you know otherwise as an old wise aviator. I happen to know the exact event as well as the owner of the A/C very well.
So you need to look, listen, experience & learn from the experience of others but most importantly the experinece that you will gain along the way at first as an F/O then perhaps as a Capt in the future of mass transport. I know this response probably isn't exactly what you where seeking but what you are seeking can't be guarenteed here by anyone, only you can make those decisions as you expand yr level of all things aviation. Good luck with yr experience gathering, there's no substitue like experience, some things you just can't gather without getting yr hands dirty !
CW
You see if that's the case then as a PVt pilot conducting VFR flights then 99% of the time you don't 'have' to fly. Where as Commercial there's always an element of 'have to' about that level of business.
I'm not even going to read yr mentioned wx elements you don't need me or anyone else to tell you that in that particular case the wx was awful!
There was no 'right or wrong' in that case.
So in answer to yr several questions which I might add are very difficult to give an accurate answer to 'cause we humans all think different (thank God !) Where one pilot might thro caution to the wind & stay grounded another might believe that apart from a rough ride the task at hand should be aviatable (if there's such a word!).
The only way for any pilot to learn this type of decision making is thru experience, (remembver no 2 days are exactly the same wx wise either)that part of flying can't be replaced with just questions & answers from various pilots. You can however base yr decision/s on others outcomes of circumstances such as the one we read here with yr questions 'till you know otherwise as an old wise aviator. I happen to know the exact event as well as the owner of the A/C very well.
So you need to look, listen, experience & learn from the experience of others but most importantly the experinece that you will gain along the way at first as an F/O then perhaps as a Capt in the future of mass transport. I know this response probably isn't exactly what you where seeking but what you are seeking can't be guarenteed here by anyone, only you can make those decisions as you expand yr level of all things aviation. Good luck with yr experience gathering, there's no substitue like experience, some things you just can't gather without getting yr hands dirty !
CW
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I don't see whether having freight or pax on board would affect my decision. Either it is safe, and I would go- or it is NOT and I would't go.
I have refused to fly in sh!thouse wx before on a mailrun. and I would do it again.
I have refused to fly in sh!thouse wx before on a mailrun. and I would do it again.
Having looked at the terrain along the route, the lowest safe altitudes, the charts and the forcast - I have to say that I would have made the flight.
Maybe I am reading it wrong, but the CB activity is seaward so should not be a factor. The terrain is only 2 - 3000' so I would not have expected and significant mountain wave activity along the flight path. There is a reasonable margin between the freezing level and the lowest safe altitude.
Perhaps, in another aircraft it would just have been a rough ride!
Dr
Maybe I am reading it wrong, but the CB activity is seaward so should not be a factor. The terrain is only 2 - 3000' so I would not have expected and significant mountain wave activity along the flight path. There is a reasonable margin between the freezing level and the lowest safe altitude.
Perhaps, in another aircraft it would just have been a rough ride!
Dr
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I flew there that day and the day after in a light VFR aircraft. Based on what I found, had they been a couple of thousand feet higher it would have been smooth.
That being said, it would have been a toss up between this:
forecast severe turbulence below 8,000 ft near and south of the ranges
And this:
occasional severe mountain wave turbulence in the area between 5,000 ft and FL140
Which one is worse?
That being said, it would have been a toss up between this:
forecast severe turbulence below 8,000 ft near and south of the ranges
And this:
occasional severe mountain wave turbulence in the area between 5,000 ft and FL140
Which one is worse?
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If it was like this on the day of your MECIR flight test, I would definately decide to stay on the ground 
I dont know the area at all, but based on the forecast only well then yes, I would go (in my current rig). Might have a second thought if it was a senica or similar...
I dont know the area at all, but based on the forecast only well then yes, I would go (in my current rig). Might have a second thought if it was a senica or similar...
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Sorry, missed that, 8,500 and as forecast was bumpy to around 8,000ft. Had they been higher I can surely say that things would have been different, but then again with ATC and airspace for most the climb it would require some orbits. But then, who enters turbulence and expects the outer wings to fall off... not me.
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Thanks guys for all your input. It is very much appreciated.
As all of you have mentioned, every flight is different and the weather is constantly changing. Experience counts for everything.
Your experiences have given me food for thought which hopefully makes me a better pilot.
Cheers
As all of you have mentioned, every flight is different and the weather is constantly changing. Experience counts for everything.
Your experiences have given me food for thought which hopefully makes me a better pilot.
Cheers
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av8trflying, don't assume that just because a pilot has more experience or flys a bigger machine that their opinions or decisions are worth listening to either.
I have only come across of a small number of pilots whose opinion I respect and go to and ask them questions, particularly related to challenging weather. Only one of these was a chief pilot as well.
I think you question/ post was a good one and I hope you can find a mentor that you can go to with such good questions and come back with responses that help you make safe and professional decisions.
I have only come across of a small number of pilots whose opinion I respect and go to and ask them questions, particularly related to challenging weather. Only one of these was a chief pilot as well.
I think you question/ post was a good one and I hope you can find a mentor that you can go to with such good questions and come back with responses that help you make safe and professional decisions.
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Thanks outkast,
You are right when it comes to asking the right people. Its funny but when you are doing your training the amount of different opinions that are out there is unbelievable.
Even in the one training school that I went through one instructor would tell you to do one thing and another totally the opposite. It does make it confusing sometimes.
You are right when it comes to asking the right people. Its funny but when you are doing your training the amount of different opinions that are out there is unbelievable.
Even in the one training school that I went through one instructor would tell you to do one thing and another totally the opposite. It does make it confusing sometimes.
