TAF Question

[VH-XXX]

Guys, am trying to interpret a forecast for a written question. I'm way out of practice!


TAF AMD YMMB 261730Z 1908 13008KT 4000 light Rain BKN 008 BKN025 BKN100
FM02 20015KT 9999 Light Showers of Rain BKN012 BKN025
FM05 20015kt 9999 Light Showers of Rain SCT012 BKN025
Inter 1902 3000 Rain Bkn005
T 18 18 19 22 Q 1008 1009 1010
Metar YMMB 261930Z AUTO 13005 kt 9999 NDV // NCD 10/07 Q1008

Question - Ignoring EOD, what is the latest time UTC you can plan to arrive based on this forecast?
0700, 0800, 0530, 0730 - ?

What is the crosswind component you expect on landing if the tower instructed you to join left base 17 at 17:15 est?
5, 7, 13, 14

If you plan to arrive at 0215 UTC, do you require holding fuel?
Yes, because Inter
No, because Inter not active yet
Yes, because vis is 4,000mt
No because is 9999 or greater.

I have a fair idea but one is confusing me!

Thanks!

X

[UnderneathTheRadar]

Someone has probably beaten me to the answer but here goes anyway....

A) latest arrival time - 30 mins prior to end of forecast validity - 0730
B) landing 17 - wind roughly 200 - 30 degrees means half the wind strenght is cross wind - 7 knots.
C) Yes - although the inter is not 'active' you must put 30 minute buffers on it (I'm assuming this is an IFR question for CAT A or B aircraft? - otherwise you'd need an alternate irrespective of the inter conditions). Remember that you need the whole 30 mins holding fuel even though the requirement to have it finished at 0230.

Good luck,

UTR

[VH-XXX]

Thanks UTR - it's for PPL level, so would be VFR only... therefore, still the 30 min buffer as you've said. Thanks for that, most helpful. There's a couple of small tricks in there for the beginner or someone who hasn't read a forecast for a while

[AerocatS2A]

Remember that you need the whole 30 mins holding fuel even though the requirement to have it finished at 0230.

Or you could just slow right down to push your eta out to 0230 and carry no holding.

[Enema Bandit's Dad]

I think the little kiss he blew at the end of his post is kind of cute .

[Marauder]

Firstly your Altn Min is 1170 ft and 4.4. k, therefore an Altn prevails until 0200 plus the 30 min buffer. The Inter is a furphy as it is embedded in the Altn requirement. Either an Altn is required or sufficient fuel to hold until 0230, as per the Q 15 H
Merry Xmas

[Jabawocky]

Stay at the aero club and have a Bundy and Coke

J

[VH-FTS]

Remember that you need the whole 30 mins holding fuel even though the requirement to have it finished at 0230.

Not quite. If your mentioned ETA is 0215, you only need 15 minutes holding fuel to take you to the end of the buffer period (or an alternate). If you carried a full 30 minutes holding fuel for your ETA of 0215, this would take you to 0245 - too much!

The AIPs say:

If the holding time required by paras 73.2.4 or

73.2.5 extends past 30 minutes after the forecast cessation of
these deteriorations, the aircraft need only carry sufficient fuel to

hold until 30 minutes after the forecast cessation time.

[witwiw]

Sorry, UTR, better look at point A) in your post again. My understanding is that a TAF has to be valid "for a period of not less than 30 mins before and 60 mins after the planned ETA". Ref AIP's ENR 1.10 para 1.2.5.

[The PM]

Ok, my take on the questions, from the perspective of someone refreshing up on things after around 7 years away from flying/training for my CPL and hopefully soon to be back into it......
1.0700 utc
2. apply the mag. variation gives you a difference between rwy hdg and wind of around 18 degrees and around a 5kt crosswind component.
3. I suspect the INTER has been thrown in to confuse things.The OP has stated it is for VFR ops, so the period 19 to 02 has an alternate requirement due to vis and cloud while 02 to 05 STILL has an alternate requirement due to cloud. As conditions don't improve above altn minimums, you wouldn't have the option of planning to hold until the end of the INTER period anyway?Or am I reading it wrong? Stand to be corrected .Given the forecast, probably not even a day for VFR?