Is a Pilot shortage leading to GA crisis?
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Is a Pilot shortage leading to GA crisis?
Seems to be an alarming amount of companies advertising for twin drivers, is there a genuine pilot shortage? Or is just hard getting the right hour requirements from applicants. Interesting times if you look at all the EBA negotiations at present and the eventual mass recruiting by Jet star.
Where are all the Companies going to get Pilots from if we say NO to up front endorsement fees and bonds, companies like Natjet, Virgin, Jet Star and skippers may just find that there is enough alternative employment here and overseas for pilots to get employment with out having to pay for endorsements.
Seems the tradition of shaking the nearest tree for pilots is over and the constant flow of GA pilots through the systems is drying up. Great times a head if we all realize that along with the rest of professional Australia our value has increased dramatically in the last few years. Time for the GA award to increase significantly like other industries short of workers, to attract the huge amount of un used Commercial Licenses out there that are making more money in other industries.
Where are all the Companies going to get Pilots from if we say NO to up front endorsement fees and bonds, companies like Natjet, Virgin, Jet Star and skippers may just find that there is enough alternative employment here and overseas for pilots to get employment with out having to pay for endorsements.
Seems the tradition of shaking the nearest tree for pilots is over and the constant flow of GA pilots through the systems is drying up. Great times a head if we all realize that along with the rest of professional Australia our value has increased dramatically in the last few years. Time for the GA award to increase significantly like other industries short of workers, to attract the huge amount of un used Commercial Licenses out there that are making more money in other industries.
Given that the conditions of just about every airline in Australia have gone backwards over the past 5 years I would suggest that there is actually the opposite problem at the moment. And all these new EBA's are providing worse conditions than what has been experienced in the past. Jetstar for exapmle are out to undercut QF drivers in a big way!! Plus the pilots pay for the priviledge!! All the regionals (except Rex and XR) make you fork out for an endo where 5 years ago they weren't.
So until the pay and conditions actually INCREASE I don't think we will be having a pilot shortage in the near future. Be nice if I'm wrong though!!!
I think things in GA are going to get interesting as SE turbines are progresssively coming in. Given then SIDs is also taking effect now too it will be interesting how people are actually going to get the multi engine experience to meet all the requirements that everyone wants. Employers may find that they will have to take a lower experience level and start training people up to standard.
So until the pay and conditions actually INCREASE I don't think we will be having a pilot shortage in the near future. Be nice if I'm wrong though!!!
I think things in GA are going to get interesting as SE turbines are progresssively coming in. Given then SIDs is also taking effect now too it will be interesting how people are actually going to get the multi engine experience to meet all the requirements that everyone wants. Employers may find that they will have to take a lower experience level and start training people up to standard.
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What he means is that a shortage of pilots will be here when companies offer better conditions and pay, in order to attract pilots to their company. This is not happening.....so there is not a pilot shortage. Don't hold your breath.
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'Scuse me for verring off towards a thread hijack .....
Out of interest I surfed around the web site of an old school of mine. Hourly rentals are creeping awfully close to A$200 / hr. Will that figure provide a 'psychological barrier' which will stop potential student pilots in their tracks? That's before the potential Biggles looks at all the ancillary costs.
Twin training even worse .... approaching $300 / hr for 30 yo BE76s and P68s.
I wonder if the sheer cost of training will stem the flow of new pilots, or at least slow it down? And before the old salts remind me of how much it used to cost as a %age of average weekly income in the olden days, I concede that. But in anticipation of that objection please consider the cost of accomodation, and the requirement to pay for all manner of things that were once subsidised or free ..... do we all have less disposable income for things like flying now?
Sorry for shooting off on a tangent.
Out of interest I surfed around the web site of an old school of mine. Hourly rentals are creeping awfully close to A$200 / hr. Will that figure provide a 'psychological barrier' which will stop potential student pilots in their tracks? That's before the potential Biggles looks at all the ancillary costs.
Twin training even worse .... approaching $300 / hr for 30 yo BE76s and P68s.
I wonder if the sheer cost of training will stem the flow of new pilots, or at least slow it down? And before the old salts remind me of how much it used to cost as a %age of average weekly income in the olden days, I concede that. But in anticipation of that objection please consider the cost of accomodation, and the requirement to pay for all manner of things that were once subsidised or free ..... do we all have less disposable income for things like flying now?
Sorry for shooting off on a tangent.
Pilot Surplus.
Wonderdog don't you read?? Even if you just followed this forum you would know there is a tremendous surplus of GA pilots. Nearly every operator I have spoken to, has said " shake the trees and pilots will fall". If that were not so, why would pilots have to drive up North just hoping to get some flying job.
Not only that, they have to get a second job to survive. There are plenty of starry eyed 16 year olds hoping to fly in the hope of making the big jet. However only few of us make it. What is even more galling some operators amplify this myth knowing fully well what the situation is like. Some of these kids get their parents to take out a mortgage on their homes to get a loan. I hope your not an operator trying to drum up business, because if you are its certainly in bad taste.
There is a shortage of EXPERIENCED Jet Captains and I'm talking A320, A330,B777 so lets not further lie to those who want to fly but have little chance of making it.
Not only that, they have to get a second job to survive. There are plenty of starry eyed 16 year olds hoping to fly in the hope of making the big jet. However only few of us make it. What is even more galling some operators amplify this myth knowing fully well what the situation is like. Some of these kids get their parents to take out a mortgage on their homes to get a loan. I hope your not an operator trying to drum up business, because if you are its certainly in bad taste.
There is a shortage of EXPERIENCED Jet Captains and I'm talking A320, A330,B777 so lets not further lie to those who want to fly but have little chance of making it.
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GA has plenty of brand new pilots to choose from to maintain the numbers of an industry sector with only modest growth. No real shortage looming there.
It is the rapid expansion of the likes of Jetstar and possibly even Virgin (Ozjet and some regionals), demanding a high number of experienced multi/turbine pilots that will leed to a shortage in that sector.
Operators like Rex, Eastern, Skippers, RFDS, Pel Air etc. etc. are finding it increasingly hard to find suitable applicants. The attrition rates of these operators is increasing as the rapidly growing airlines (overseas included) suck them dry.
EBA negotiations are going on in a number of companies including mine. So far the offers from management don't reflect concerns about the lack of suitable pilot numbers. I'm hoping that if not this EBA, the next in 3 years time, offers will be higher in a futile attempt to cut the losses.
It is the rapid expansion of the likes of Jetstar and possibly even Virgin (Ozjet and some regionals), demanding a high number of experienced multi/turbine pilots that will leed to a shortage in that sector.
Operators like Rex, Eastern, Skippers, RFDS, Pel Air etc. etc. are finding it increasingly hard to find suitable applicants. The attrition rates of these operators is increasing as the rapidly growing airlines (overseas included) suck them dry.
EBA negotiations are going on in a number of companies including mine. So far the offers from management don't reflect concerns about the lack of suitable pilot numbers. I'm hoping that if not this EBA, the next in 3 years time, offers will be higher in a futile attempt to cut the losses.
Grandpa Aerotart
Never has been and never will be a shortage of young people with CPLs.
But not all young people with CPLs are created equal....maybe 1/2 (educated guess) have all the characteristics necesary to succeed AT THAT LEVEL.
As we move up the pyramid to successive higher professional levels the % with all the necesary characteristics to succeed at EACH LEVEL reduces.
The reasons the T&Cs are so poor at the lower levels are that the barriers to entry at the lowest level are so low....essentially non existant in fact.
Because there are no effective barriers to entry in aviation, unlike medicine, law etc (VERY HIGH educational barriers to Uni course entry) aviation is awash with hopefulls that actually have no hope in reality.
That is the reason for the dramaticly steep pay gradient in aviation.
Clearly what we are seeing in the last years is a draining away of the 'best and brightest' to other fields of professional endeavour leaving a higher proportion of the hopeless...thereby flattening the sides of the pyramid.
This flattening has several consequences.
1/. Pay remains painfully low in the entry levels because there are still too many hopefulls.
2/. A lower % of pilots with all the characteristics to succeed....causing mid and upper level operators to struggle find 'suitable' candidates.
3/. A higher corresponding % of 'the hopeless' leading to
3a/. backstabbing to get the few jobs at each level.
3b/. competition among the encumbants driving down upper payscales
3c/. 'Pay for play' requirements among the higher end employers.
3 a,b and c lead to the imperative for technology to dumb down the profession allowing expansion to be staffed by the less qualified.
When the barriers to entry are raised to levels comparable with other professions, like medicine and law, then, and only then, will things improve....and I don't actually think that will EVER happen.
As it stands any fool with a grade 8 education and deep pockets, or parents with same, can get a CPL.
But not all young people with CPLs are created equal....maybe 1/2 (educated guess) have all the characteristics necesary to succeed AT THAT LEVEL.
As we move up the pyramid to successive higher professional levels the % with all the necesary characteristics to succeed at EACH LEVEL reduces.
The reasons the T&Cs are so poor at the lower levels are that the barriers to entry at the lowest level are so low....essentially non existant in fact.
Because there are no effective barriers to entry in aviation, unlike medicine, law etc (VERY HIGH educational barriers to Uni course entry) aviation is awash with hopefulls that actually have no hope in reality.
That is the reason for the dramaticly steep pay gradient in aviation.
Clearly what we are seeing in the last years is a draining away of the 'best and brightest' to other fields of professional endeavour leaving a higher proportion of the hopeless...thereby flattening the sides of the pyramid.
This flattening has several consequences.
1/. Pay remains painfully low in the entry levels because there are still too many hopefulls.
2/. A lower % of pilots with all the characteristics to succeed....causing mid and upper level operators to struggle find 'suitable' candidates.
3/. A higher corresponding % of 'the hopeless' leading to
3a/. backstabbing to get the few jobs at each level.
3b/. competition among the encumbants driving down upper payscales
3c/. 'Pay for play' requirements among the higher end employers.
3 a,b and c lead to the imperative for technology to dumb down the profession allowing expansion to be staffed by the less qualified.
When the barriers to entry are raised to levels comparable with other professions, like medicine and law, then, and only then, will things improve....and I don't actually think that will EVER happen.
As it stands any fool with a grade 8 education and deep pockets, or parents with same, can get a CPL.
Pass A Frozo
If you look at other industries where there is a an actual shortage of labour (mining, tradesmen in remote towns etc) the cost of labour is almost becoming prohibitive. Mining execs are also winging that they can't find labour and/or the cost of it is too high.
So that would be an indication that there is a shortage in the supply of labour.
Now given that the current the offers in alot of airlines are below that level of what it was 5 years ago I would suggest that there is an over supply of labour. When you see the wages and conditions increase for pilots in this country ( and things like paying for endorsements go) I would suggest that then you might start running into a labour supply problem.
Airlines can also bypass any pilot shortage by recruiting foreign pilots. God helps us all if it gets to that stage.
If you look at other industries where there is a an actual shortage of labour (mining, tradesmen in remote towns etc) the cost of labour is almost becoming prohibitive. Mining execs are also winging that they can't find labour and/or the cost of it is too high.
So that would be an indication that there is a shortage in the supply of labour.
Now given that the current the offers in alot of airlines are below that level of what it was 5 years ago I would suggest that there is an over supply of labour. When you see the wages and conditions increase for pilots in this country ( and things like paying for endorsements go) I would suggest that then you might start running into a labour supply problem.
Airlines can also bypass any pilot shortage by recruiting foreign pilots. God helps us all if it gets to that stage.
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Understand all that. The phrase I quoted above just made it sound like someone was making the argument that High pay and conditions leads to a shortage, rather than it being indicative of a shortage.
Seasonally Adjusted
I know of GA piston twin charter outfits that are struggling to find drivers with enough multi time to fulfil their contract work. It would seem that those with the required multi time are moving quickly to the next step in their careers, a lot quicker than in the past.
The "shake a tree" scenario no longer applies to many of these operators.
The "shake a tree" scenario no longer applies to many of these operators.
Originally Posted by neville_nobody
Now given that the current the offers in alot of airlines are below that level of what it was 5 years ago I would suggest that there is an over supply of labour. When you see the wages and conditions increase for pilots in this country ( and things like paying for endorsements go) I would suggest that then you might start running into a labour supply problem.
So, we could be at the start of a pilot shortage right now, but we may not see the effects on airline pay for a little while. NatJet scrapping their pay-to-learn B717 ratings is one initial sign that things may be turning around.
Nunc est bibendum
Or they just might be finding that for 'entry level' jobs onto jets, people just don't have the dollars to cough up! Again, that may be a function that there aren't that many experienced drivers around prepared to pay $$$$ to get back into the saddle. All that is left are those trying to break in!!
Perhaps the pendulum is starting the swing back!?!?! Here's hoping!
Perhaps the pendulum is starting the swing back!?!?! Here's hoping!
Last edited by Keg; 27th Feb 2006 at 23:34.
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Originally Posted by Towering Q
I know of GA piston twin charter outfits that are struggling to find drivers with enough multi time to fulfil their contract work. It would seem that those with the required multi time are moving quickly to the next step in their careers, a lot quicker than in the past.
The "shake a tree" scenario no longer applies to many of these operators.
The "shake a tree" scenario no longer applies to many of these operators.
Skippers
Golden Eagle
KFS
AUSWEST
STRYTRANS
WESTWING
Are all looking for pilots with around 500 multi and can not find them. They need this requirement because of contract requirements. If you can not find pilots for positions doesn't this mean there is a shortage????
And it's not going to get easier to find applicants because off the mass recruitment by the regionals and soon Jet Star.
Anyone who thinks that there isn't less CP out there than 5 years ago need ring those companies above and ask how hard it is to get Pilts with relevant exp.
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What was the question?
A shortage of qualified labour? No, not yet. However, with the current decline in people taking up training, I don't think the day is that far away 
A shortage of suitable labour? Most definitely, and has been increasingly so over the past few years.
Suitable is the key word. Just because you are qualified does not necessarily mean you are suitable for a particular job.
That's why we have interviews......
A shortage of suitable labour? Most definitely, and has been increasingly so over the past few years.
Suitable is the key word. Just because you are qualified does not necessarily mean you are suitable for a particular job.
That's why we have interviews......
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Perhaps at some stage in the future we will see a rise in GA pay and conditions. The most enjoyable and varied flying I have ever done was in GA, if I could make a descent living, enough to look after my family I would be there in a flash.
Charliethewonderdog - that's a wide spread there but I have to suspect that if they are finding it dificult to get qualified pilots (500 m/e etc.) it is because they are not actually looking very hard (ie beyond the resumes at the end of their desk!)
Nunc est bibendum
So Hugh, the $64K question is 'will QF and others change their idea of what is 'suitable' to ensure that they can continue to crew aircraft?' Or will they hold the line on standards, end up short of crew and acknowledge that 'gee, perhaps we need to pay a bit more to get the types of crew we want'.
As you know, I much around (still) with another organisation. For the last six months in my part of the organisation, we have been going through the motions of saying 'two arms, two legs and a pulse does NOT mean that you get to be [insert role or job here]'. It's all about finding the RIGHT person for the job and if we can't find them, we'll modify our operation until we can.
Some things should not be compromised so which way do you see us going? Feel free to PM if you prefer.
Keg
As you know, I much around (still) with another organisation. For the last six months in my part of the organisation, we have been going through the motions of saying 'two arms, two legs and a pulse does NOT mean that you get to be [insert role or job here]'. It's all about finding the RIGHT person for the job and if we can't find them, we'll modify our operation until we can.
Some things should not be compromised so which way do you see us going? Feel free to PM if you prefer.
Keg