Upcoming Election
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Upcoming Election
Just wondering what everyones for's and against's are for the upcoming election. With regard to Airline services, GA and future growth, who are we really better off voting for.
I would be interested to hear what Dick Smith has to say on this and compare with everyone elses comments.
I would be interested to hear what Dick Smith has to say on this and compare with everyone elses comments.
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Rich-Fine-Green
At about that time (late 80's, early 90's), interest rates were high in most countries. {eg. UK and Canada at around 15%, USA about 10%, Switzerland about 9%, even Japan at about 7% ...}
True., our rates were one of the highest then at around 17%, but I honestly believe that no political party has any effective control over the financial system. The elected party at the time gets the (retrospective) 'credit' and/or blame.
At about that time (late 80's, early 90's), interest rates were high in most countries. {eg. UK and Canada at around 15%, USA about 10%, Switzerland about 9%, even Japan at about 7% ...}
True., our rates were one of the highest then at around 17%, but I honestly believe that no political party has any effective control over the financial system. The elected party at the time gets the (retrospective) 'credit' and/or blame.
Last edited by Biggles_in_Oz; 29th Sep 2004 at 23:24.
I honestly believe that no political party has any effective control over the financial system
So maybe they do have control??
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Interest rates are set by the RBA.
The RBA is independent of whoever is screwing who at the time.
Bring back the largesse of Goof and his buddies . Does anyone remember the handouts for instrument ratings?
The only pilots with enough recent experience to qualify for the grant were cropdusters.
The RBA is independent of whoever is screwing who at the time.
Bring back the largesse of Goof and his buddies . Does anyone remember the handouts for instrument ratings?
The only pilots with enough recent experience to qualify for the grant were cropdusters.
Guys, guys, guys...
Repeat after me... LABOR
(Please excuse me if you're talking about English politics and the party which Tony Blair is the leader of.)
TL
Repeat after me... LABOR
(Please excuse me if you're talking about English politics and the party which Tony Blair is the leader of.)
TL
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Biggles is actually correct when he says that interest rates were very high globally during that time, Oz interest rates (like it or not) are pegged to the US, she sneezes we get the flu.
No one Political party can say they have control of rates, however they can over a period of time reduce the stability by excessive debt and increase the national exposure, so when the rate of change comes it happens very quickly, often too quickly for the reserve to cushion the impact, and with thousands wanting to jump into fixed rate loans, you cannot expect charity from the financial instutions in that case.
The danger here and now is that the cost of Debt is low, so low that many people have exposed themselves to unthinkable amounts of debt, often 5-6 times their annual salaries.
This has a effect on the asset price, ie it goes up, because debt is cheap, the other gotcha here is inflation, if you have exposure in terms of debt (and can manage), inflation is your friend, high interest rates erode the debt much quicker than low ones,(unless you overpay). In time inflation ensures salary rates will come into line with inflation, and in this scenario the actual rate you are "suffering" becomes less difficult to manage, however you do need some fuel in the tank to get you through the initial rate rises.
If rates do go up under the next government, it won't be their fault, it will be the current one that is cuplable.
what is more important is the current "heat" in the economy.
That has to go somewhere, and I'm really not looking forward to it.
No one Political party can say they have control of rates, however they can over a period of time reduce the stability by excessive debt and increase the national exposure, so when the rate of change comes it happens very quickly, often too quickly for the reserve to cushion the impact, and with thousands wanting to jump into fixed rate loans, you cannot expect charity from the financial instutions in that case.
The danger here and now is that the cost of Debt is low, so low that many people have exposed themselves to unthinkable amounts of debt, often 5-6 times their annual salaries.
This has a effect on the asset price, ie it goes up, because debt is cheap, the other gotcha here is inflation, if you have exposure in terms of debt (and can manage), inflation is your friend, high interest rates erode the debt much quicker than low ones,(unless you overpay). In time inflation ensures salary rates will come into line with inflation, and in this scenario the actual rate you are "suffering" becomes less difficult to manage, however you do need some fuel in the tank to get you through the initial rate rises.
If rates do go up under the next government, it won't be their fault, it will be the current one that is cuplable.
what is more important is the current "heat" in the economy.
That has to go somewhere, and I'm really not looking forward to it.
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Remember these articles
"Airline deregulation would not mean large staff cuts at Ansett Australia said Graeme Mcmahon. Australian airlies has consultants examining ways of making the airline more efficient but the deputy cheif excutive Geoff Dixon said their presence did not mean job would be cut"
Australian 29/10/90
"Pay-outs approval for some 1500 airline employees. Australian Airlines has received Federal government approval for payout to emplyees who will be retrenched because of the company's restructuring plans announced this week. The airline has reportedly estimated it can save over $ 35 million through the overhaul."
Financial REview 8/2/91
Australian is reforming its workplace practises in an exercise which it expects to save $ 100 million through job cuts and improved efficencies
Financial Review 5/4/91
Australian expected to announce sweeping job cuts as domestic carriers struggle to reduce spending. up to 1250 jobs, approximately 14 percent could be lost,"
Herald 3/2/91
Looks familiar....those flight attendants had better choose carefully at the nearing election.
U2
Australian 29/10/90
"Pay-outs approval for some 1500 airline employees. Australian Airlines has received Federal government approval for payout to emplyees who will be retrenched because of the company's restructuring plans announced this week. The airline has reportedly estimated it can save over $ 35 million through the overhaul."
Financial REview 8/2/91
Australian is reforming its workplace practises in an exercise which it expects to save $ 100 million through job cuts and improved efficencies
Financial Review 5/4/91
Australian expected to announce sweeping job cuts as domestic carriers struggle to reduce spending. up to 1250 jobs, approximately 14 percent could be lost,"
Herald 3/2/91
Looks familiar....those flight attendants had better choose carefully at the nearing election.
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If Johnny is going to claim responsibility for interest rates then by the same rationale he must claim responsibility for rising oil prices! Come to think of it he has probably had more influence on oil prices than interest rates!
Dont know if I can be bothered driving to the local primary school on the 9th. I'm not holding out much hope no matter what the result.
Dont know if I can be bothered driving to the local primary school on the 9th. I'm not holding out much hope no matter what the result.
One of the primary determinants of the interest rates is the pace of the economy - the stronger the economy, the higher interest rates will go.
Isn't Johnny claiming that HE will be the one to give us a strong economy?
Isn't Johnny claiming that HE will be the one to give us a strong economy?
Nunc est bibendum
Given the crappy financial decisions that various groups of pilots have made over the years, I reckon it's hilarious to listen to a bunch of pilots making commentary about the economy! 
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embarassing and rather depressingly, i actually build financial models to do this sort of rubbish for banks, finance companies etc etc , so whilst I know the ins-and-outs of the specific models, terms, risk, financials and so on, i would never pretend to be able to tell the future.
what amuses me is that the polys do.
here is a more eloquent version of what I referred to above, inflation vs debt and risk.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...n021404pv.html
if you are a home owner and/or you have training debt, asset debt (ie a shiney new ag-cat) or are a contractor, then it is worth a read.
what amuses me is that the polys do.
here is a more eloquent version of what I referred to above, inflation vs debt and risk.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...n021404pv.html
if you are a home owner and/or you have training debt, asset debt (ie a shiney new ag-cat) or are a contractor, then it is worth a read.
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7gcbc; Thanks for your post on previous page. It was quite understandable even to a clot such as me.
Question 'though; Don't you feel that the large amount of debt could be in no small way attributed to the Banks almost obscene willingness to give out huge loans at the 'drop of a hat'. Not to mention people using the 'plastic' without the necessary cash available to service this credit?
Interested in your thoughts.
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
Question 'though; Don't you feel that the large amount of debt could be in no small way attributed to the Banks almost obscene willingness to give out huge loans at the 'drop of a hat'. Not to mention people using the 'plastic' without the necessary cash available to service this credit?
Interested in your thoughts.
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
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cashflow is king
Pinky,
for sure , lenders dropped their credit rating standards once the market took off, they had to, or else their competitors would gain market share, and you'd look pretty silly if all the other lenders started making bundles whilst you sat on the fence.
The demand was there of course, and this is a self fulfilling cycle, more debt requirement = higher asset price and so on, and so on.
The lenders are obviously culpable in supporting the ability to gain access to assets previously outside of the common mans' reach, and whilst they are throwing cash at us, we need to be a little smarter than what we have been. It is in their interest to lend to us, thats' how the make money, they have little concern for the personal side of it, such is life.
Sitting in a 800K house which you bought for 300K , does not give you 500K in the bank, as some people are wont to think, it's relative, if you wish to reside in the same area, and work in the same area, its paper money, if however you wish to move to the country, you have hit jackpot, but what are you going to do there ? Given that your income and exposure was based on a different market. (investment peoperties work the same way, and the current government is cuplable in ensuring that that particular sector was heated up nice and white by tax incentives)
And so people are lulled into thinking they are wealthy, and then they need the trappings of such self-percieved wealth, etc
Plastic is obviously the clearest cluprit in high geared debt, the new stereo, the European 5* hoilday, what the jones's have, we want, human conditioning I'm afraid, it's all virtual of course, hardly anyone *actually* owns the super mercedes they drive.
In terms of repaying (not servicing) the debt, only actual real earned cash can do that, nothing else.
Re-mortgaging to access your "equity" is just plain stupid, you are extending your term and exposing yourself to greater risk, but we gotta have the latest audi (had one in the UK, they
suck). 8 year old subarooooo's fine by me
Of course I should qualify re-mortgaging, if your cashflow in can cope with the service requirement going out, then by all means do so, i.e remortgage the house for a deposit on an ag-cat when the ag business is booming is likely to be a wise descision.
Now, there are three basic methods of dealing with debt,
1) repay (using cash) , 2) borrow more to extend your debt term (remortgage), 3) default, and 4) hope inflation is oing to do the job for you.
1) is clearly not what people are doing, 2) is what people were doing last year, 3) will happen soon, and 4) is definitely going to happen within the next 12-18 months.
Defaulting is often looked on with huge angst, for example, your credit rating will suffer, but Plastic is an unsecured debt, you cannot lose the farm for defaulting on it, so if you are in distress, then the plastic should be the first one to go.
at the bank where I attend (I have more respect for my self not to call it work), they have 5 separate and distinct methods of assessing someones credit worthyness, and each of these 5 consistantly and without fail give a different answer.
Reading between the lines, "They obviously do not check properly"
cheers
7gcbc
just occurred to me, I've missed the key point : personal savings are the only parachute worth having in this case...
for sure , lenders dropped their credit rating standards once the market took off, they had to, or else their competitors would gain market share, and you'd look pretty silly if all the other lenders started making bundles whilst you sat on the fence.
The demand was there of course, and this is a self fulfilling cycle, more debt requirement = higher asset price and so on, and so on.
The lenders are obviously culpable in supporting the ability to gain access to assets previously outside of the common mans' reach, and whilst they are throwing cash at us, we need to be a little smarter than what we have been. It is in their interest to lend to us, thats' how the make money, they have little concern for the personal side of it, such is life.
Sitting in a 800K house which you bought for 300K , does not give you 500K in the bank, as some people are wont to think, it's relative, if you wish to reside in the same area, and work in the same area, its paper money, if however you wish to move to the country, you have hit jackpot, but what are you going to do there ? Given that your income and exposure was based on a different market. (investment peoperties work the same way, and the current government is cuplable in ensuring that that particular sector was heated up nice and white by tax incentives)
And so people are lulled into thinking they are wealthy, and then they need the trappings of such self-percieved wealth, etc
Plastic is obviously the clearest cluprit in high geared debt, the new stereo, the European 5* hoilday, what the jones's have, we want, human conditioning I'm afraid, it's all virtual of course, hardly anyone *actually* owns the super mercedes they drive.
In terms of repaying (not servicing) the debt, only actual real earned cash can do that, nothing else.
Re-mortgaging to access your "equity" is just plain stupid, you are extending your term and exposing yourself to greater risk, but we gotta have the latest audi (had one in the UK, they
suck). 8 year old subarooooo's fine by meOf course I should qualify re-mortgaging, if your cashflow in can cope with the service requirement going out, then by all means do so, i.e remortgage the house for a deposit on an ag-cat when the ag business is booming is likely to be a wise descision.
Now, there are three basic methods of dealing with debt,
1) repay (using cash) , 2) borrow more to extend your debt term (remortgage), 3) default, and 4) hope inflation is oing to do the job for you.
1) is clearly not what people are doing, 2) is what people were doing last year, 3) will happen soon, and 4) is definitely going to happen within the next 12-18 months.
Defaulting is often looked on with huge angst, for example, your credit rating will suffer, but Plastic is an unsecured debt, you cannot lose the farm for defaulting on it, so if you are in distress, then the plastic should be the first one to go.
at the bank where I attend (I have more respect for my self not to call it work), they have 5 separate and distinct methods of assessing someones credit worthyness, and each of these 5 consistantly and without fail give a different answer.
Reading between the lines, "They obviously do not check properly"
cheers
7gcbc
just occurred to me, I've missed the key point : personal savings are the only parachute worth having in this case...
Last edited by 7gcbc; 2nd Oct 2004 at 10:49.
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7gcbc; Thanks for that. It confirms a theory I have that no matter which party wins the election, there's a big 'crunch' coming and nothing they can do will stop it!
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.
Great post, Flyingscarecrow, you made my day.
Strangely, the thread hasn't degenerated yet.
As for the subject at hand, it seems that interest rates just about everywhere are low at the moment. It's inevitable that at some point they will rise everywhere. Australia is not immune to global trends.
So if Labor wins the election and the interest rates go up a little way down the track, the Libs inevitably will blame the new government and crap on about their good economic management. But it won't necessarily be the new government's fault.
As for the current government's economic record - it seems to me they've managed to keep their heads above water because they've imposed/increased all sorts of taxes that are not officially known as taxes, and they've privatised so much stuff that we, the people, used to own. How do they plan to keep balancing the books when there's nothing left to flog off? Or to put it another way, you shouldn't have to sell the family china in order to pay the weekly grocery bill.
Strangely, the thread hasn't degenerated yet.
As for the subject at hand, it seems that interest rates just about everywhere are low at the moment. It's inevitable that at some point they will rise everywhere. Australia is not immune to global trends.
So if Labor wins the election and the interest rates go up a little way down the track, the Libs inevitably will blame the new government and crap on about their good economic management. But it won't necessarily be the new government's fault.
As for the current government's economic record - it seems to me they've managed to keep their heads above water because they've imposed/increased all sorts of taxes that are not officially known as taxes, and they've privatised so much stuff that we, the people, used to own. How do they plan to keep balancing the books when there's nothing left to flog off? Or to put it another way, you shouldn't have to sell the family china in order to pay the weekly grocery bill.