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US Legacy Age 65 Retirements
Haven't seen any recent discussion of the subject and thought someone might be interested so I'll throw this out:
This is a unique time in US legacy airline history re pilot demand/supply. The legacies are losing VERY large percentages of their pilots to age 65 over the next 15+/- years. This continues beyond 2028 with annually decreasing numbers but the curve seems to peak about the end of 2028 +/- Here's the legacy American Airlines data(not including merged USAir data which would only make it more dramatic I think). And, by the way, Delta is losing 68% of the list between 2013 and 2028 due only to age 65. And almost NOBODY leaves a US legacy voluntarily but there will be medical dropouts to alter the year-by-year numbers by a smallish amount. I haven't seen any data from the merged UAL/CAL list but would like to see it: Projected Retirements for 2016 - 2036 (Legacy AA only) (Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.) Roster Data Updated on: 1/5/2016 Year Total 01/10/2016 - 12/31/2016 114 01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 161 01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 261 01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 375 01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 499 01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 572 01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 641 01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 691 01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 718 01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 732 01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 716 01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617 01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 546 01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 506 01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 456 01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 472 01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 431 01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 403 01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 301 01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 223 01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 154 __________________ |
From a reliable source:
UAL age-65 annual pilot retirement attrition as of Jan/2016. Total list is now 11,971 pilots: 2016--273 2017--373 2018--373 2019--403 2020--406 2021--491 2022--463 2023--538 2024--485 2025--594 2026--643 2027--622 2028--733 2029--670 2030--649 2031--646 2032--476 2033--404 2034--357 2035--364 2036--260 2037--230 2038--218 2039--206 2040--180 2041--126 2042--110 2043--103 2044--86 2045--60 2046--50 2047--40 2048--25 2049--5 2050--3 2051--3 2052--1 2053--2 2054--0 2055--0 |
Any word on how these airlines plan to hire in the future - I.e will guys working overseas on heavies be considered or will they be able to fill the slots with regional guys with PIC time? Seems a lot of places to fill and a lot of training capacity if they do it the traditional way.
Even the legacies in Europe are starting to hire straight onto longhaul. |
They will hire whoever they want to hire, to include regional pilots, ACMI pilots, military, guys coming back from overseas contracts, corporate and fractional pilots... And believe it or not guys are getting hired from my company with 0 turbine PIC.
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From another reliable source:
Delta age 65 retirements 2016--214 2017--273 2018--390 2019--479 2020--583 2021--779 2022--836 2023--796 2024--793 2025--713 2026--607 2027--516 2028--509 2029--511 2030--541 2031--475 2032--417 2033--350 2034--293 2035--247 2036--242 |
Now there is talk about aga 67, not sure how serious it is.
I am out, medical retirement from a US Legacy at age 58. It was fun flying the world for 37 years. :cool: |
TD,
Yep, I hear passing references to age 67 also...nothing concrete. No way to tell if that'd do any good or even if "good" is needed. How many people stay to 65 anyway ? I don't know. How many are physically able to ? Dunno. How many could get to 67 ? Nobody knows..it may be no fix at all. The DL situation is interesting because, IIUC, the NW guys have their defined benefit plan intact and are therefore under no pressure to stay to the end to make up for pension losses. Must be nice. I'd guess the top end of the Part 121 world isn't where the squeeze will be felt since that's where so many people aim career wise. Even if they have to accept people with less overall experience, I'd guess they'll fill the seats...and you know that's what they'll do if it comes to that. Probably not the end of the world...just a change. People will say the sky is falling, though. :-) The legacies have their pick these days. The average TTL time of DL new hires since they started hiring in earnest in 2014 is 7,000+/- hrs with solid PIC time. Not sure how UAL, AA, SWA, FedEx, UPS, JB, etc. are doing in that department. I'm guessin' the same. Interesting times. If a young person can hit this wave on the upslope, pre-2029ish, it's gonna be a fantastic career. Not sure how the Part 91K, 135, straight 91, low-end 121 gigs will make out. They may be the ones to feel the heat first. I think I put a link to a study by a Rand Corp guy on here somewhere but can't remember where. It's the best one I've seen and I've tried to read them all. Fun stuff, no ? |
Wanabe777,
Yep, those pretty much jive with mine. I got mine right off the DL flt ops website just prior to Jan/2014 so they offered a Big Picture snapshot of what the whole issue would be through 2047 as they kicked off the hiring spree. Kinda eye opening...my quoted figure of 68% age-out of the current list by end of 2028 was based on that data. The numbers will change some over time as not everyone at DL is staying to 65. But, I don't know how many are pulling the plug pre-65. |
But for the termination of the pre-merger DAL pilots' Defined Benefit Pension Plan, there would be substantially more retirements pre age 65.
It's unfortunate that the PBGC forfeited their right to seek refunding of the Plan once Delta exited Chapter 11 and became profitable again. Currently, Delta is awash is cash as evidenced by stock buybacks and senior management's compensation packages. Delta's CEO Just Cashed a $17.6 Million Paycheck for the Last Year ? Skift |
I guess FedEx is a rightly a "legacy" freight airline.
Judging by the guy who posted this data, who I'm pretty sure is a FedEx pilot who also runs a very well respected pilot interview prep company (Emerald Coast Consulting ?), I say this is likely good data as of mid 2015. They aren't losing as many compared to the Big Three pax legacies so I'd expect the competition to be stiff. They have ~ 4,300 pilots. Here are the FedEx (potential) retirement numbers…pilots turning 65. Some may leave early for any number of reasons: 2014: 69 2015: 110 2016: 114 2017: 163 2018: 177 2019: 144 2020: 178 2021: 206 2022: 211 2023: 222 2024: 229 2025: 218 2026: 241 2027: 209 2028: 203 2029: 186 |
Before the latest hiring wave AA had 77% of it's pilot corps retiring by the end of 2029 (based on everyone staying to Age 65).
Adding LUS retirements increases the LAA totals for the combined airline - Combined will be just shy of 800 in 2019, 800+ in 2020, 900 ish in 2021-2022, just shy of 1000 in 2023, 900+ in 2024-2025, and then dropping to a more manageable (!) 700 in 2026, 600 in 2027, and then stabilizing at an average of over 400 for the next 5 years. About 1,300 in the next three years. Then about 6,200 retirements in 7 years. Then only 2,700 in the next 5 yrs. |
misd-agin,
Yep, this is gonna get interestin' pretty soon. Since you appear to have some inside dope on AA, what's your take on the number of AA people who've been bypassing recall and are facing a time when return or cutting bait will be required ? I've heard that ~900 are still bypassing with the end of that option coming this year. The scuttlebutt is that only 10% of those will elect to return. Any truth to that from your sources ? P.S. Speaking of USAir retirements, I have these numbers from a couple of years ago…Audries Aircraft Analysis, IIRC. They were from an unattributed source but may be in the ballpark ? ( I prefer dated/attributed data from the original source) Something to kick around, I guess. Audries has gone to a pay-to-play format so I can't see what's there now if it even is after the merger. Add them to AA legacy and it gets impressive: 2015--227 2016--269 2017--295 2018--308 2019--329 2020--306 2021--312 2022--263 2023--299 2024--239 2025--229 |
Audries' data was accurate. But only for the second that the 'enter' button was pushed. So the LUS data is too high based on a late 2014 list.
How many of the remaining 903 guys come back? The company's estimating 100-150 but no one knows. It might be 20, it might be 700. So 10% is in the ballpark for the guesses that are out there. For guys not hired, or currently not that competitive to get hired, the returning guys are on average 10-12 years older than OTS hires. So if you can't get hired this year you're hoping as many returnees as possible come back vs. hiring younger OTS guys ahead of you. May 7th is the last day the have to announce their intentions to accept recall or quit. We'll know then. And how many say they'll come back but actually don't show for their training class? Zero? One? Ten? Fifty? So the number on May 7th but be slightly different than the actual number of guys that show for training. |
misd-agin,
Thanks for the info. |
Just for contrast, the middle of last year, Audries listed this data for UPS retirements 2015/2020. Not very many at all:
2015--28 2016--40 2017--50 2018--60 2019--72 2020--94 UPS | Audries Aircraft Analysis |
I think you guys are missing something here:
While all those figures quoted here are true and impressive for future pilot jobs... and having been in this biz for about 30 years now.... between now and 2028 or much sooner, there WILL be a recession and airlines will look to reduce the numbers. This will stop the hiring plain and simple. So the demand side will not be there nearly the way it is now for a few years more than likely. Also figure in that oil while at $30/barrel these days is going to rise which at some point even with hedging, will catch up to the airlines. Not to rain on the parade but the hiring will at some point reduce drastically or more than likely stop... but only for a while. These are the highest numbers of retirements ever seen in the airline industry before. Kap |
Kapitanleutnant,
You're undoubtedly right. An economic downturn, with some attendant effect on pilot employment, is inevitable...bet the rent money on it. :-) I can only guess what the degree of effect will be under the current retirement picture. I have absolutely no idea but WONDER if such extraordinarily large numbers might at least not ameliorate some of the negative economic effects on the junior people. Perhaps an airline bleeding pilots out the top end might not lay off as many in a downturn...or even need to continue hiring even if just a little ? Maybe a de facto form of furlough protection if nothing else ? Beats me... |
Waiting for one of them to call 🙏 . They take their time !!!
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homo,
You have internal recommendations to get your app pulled from the stack of 8K qualified others and reviewed, right ? That seems to be almost a requirement with the US legacies. Putting in an app without them and hoping to get reviewed is akin to playing Pin The Tail On The Donkey. Best of luck in the hunt. |
Internal recommendations are not required at AA to get selected.
Others require them. |
misd-agin,
I agree. "required internals" is a real-world, functional, unofficial, results-based notion...and a bit sloppy wording on my part. That's why I said, "...almost a requirement...". Obviously, people get selected for interview without internals but internals sure grease the skids. I know of one legacy that set up an email address specifically dedicated to accepting internal recs...FACT. That would appear to be a strong indication they're important. I don't know that any carrier makes internals a make-or-break, published requirement. But, wanna get called ? The more internals a person has, the better his chances. The legacies are swamped with apps from people who meet, and far exceed, the published quals. The US has pilots running out its ears. [and what to do after getting the call...to survive the interview is another subject entirely...requiring its own thread] It's a jungle out there. And Jungle Rules apply. Sorta makes me glad to be retired...and not job hunting. |
I manage a Part 135 operation. After the 1500 hour/ATP requirement for Part 121 came in I have found that I cannot find qualified pilots. I used to get applications around 3 a week from qualified people now I get none. I had a bunch of full time pilots but now I rely on part timers because I lost all my good guys to the majors and freight carriers. I do part time flight instructing and no longer have anybody wanting to learn to fly to be a commercial pilot.
I believe that it is now impossible to fail a check ride in the airlines because there are no replacements available. I have seen some of the smaller airlines upgrading their guys to command with as little as 1800 hours. Pilots are flying longer hours with fewer days off because there are not enough to man the number of airplanes the carriers want to fly, many airplanes are being put out to pasture because of a lack of pilots and many airports are shutting down because of the drop in frequency of airplane movements required to get the FAA subsidy. The military does not release many pilots any longer, they have cut back their own training and pay bonuses to keep the ones they have. They say that the problem was the Colgan accident, which was not caused by low time pilots without ATPs but by pilots who were fatigued and did not follow the correct stall procedures. The PIC was reported to have failed several check rides. The 1500 hour rule does nothing to fix these problems, in fact it makes them worse. As a confirmed conspiracy theorist I believe that the FAA has knowingly done this to kill aviation in the USA. Maybe they all want to retire on full pensions. Consider a youngster who wants a career as an airline pilot. She must get a degree first, so that will take 4 years. She is now 22. Then she has to get 1500 hours. How to do that? Be a CFI? Fly the Geico banner? Work in the bush flying a PA28? How long to get 1500 hours? 7 years? 10? So at a minimum age of 32 she is now qualified to knock on the door of the airline and apply for a job that pays $20,000 to $30,000 a year and with loans around $500,000. Nobody would ever see that as a reasonable course and they are proving it by staying away from aviation. The only training going on in the USA is for the foreign airlines, who will continue to put those pilots into the right seats of their 777 and 747s with 400 hours total. And compete with the US carriers. Even if they increase the retiring age to 70 it will not solve the problem of attrition, it will only delay it. We are becoming quite good at kicking the can down the road. |
So much mis-information in the above post that it really should removed. Where do you come up with stuff like this?
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The issue of "pilot shortage" is incredibly complex and data dependent, some of which isn't even available as it's driven by events which no one can foretell and/or companies won't disclose. I don't see a way for a conclusion about its existence to be reduced to small scale, anecdotal bits & pieces.
Mike McGee's RAND study is probably the best one I've seen (and I've tried to read every one I can find) as it's not produced by an organization with an economic and/or political stake in having the study indicate one conclusion or the other. With all the hiring at the US legacy level, or near-legacy level, the domino effect will produce pressures in other segments of the industry as people try to move up to move to circumstances they feel are "better", ultimately a purely individual, subjective word. Some amount of time will be required for industry adjustments to events; pilots can't be cranked out like Fords on an assembly line. I remain a very serious skeptic about a "shortage" as the term is somewhat undefined. And without an agreed upon definition, everyone is speaking a different language when trying to discuss all of this. [and of course, I could just be completely WRONG ! :-)] At any rate, my only interest in starting this thread was to let our non-US amigos see some properly-sourced, hard data about what's happening at the Big Three (or Four...or Five ?) over here...just for grins & giggles. Circumstances elsewhere in the world are not part of this particular matter. The shortage issue is a very different subject and time will reveal the facts. |
The 65 issue is a factor indeed. I can assure you that the lack of qualified pilots has a very real and deleterious effect on the smaller Part 121 and many Part 135 operations already, with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place. Without the support for the base, the entire aviation industry can collapse, or standards will have to be dropped so far that our present exemplary efficiency and safety will become history.
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Boof,
I'm not convinced this statement is accurate in the US: "…with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place." Are you familiar with the Aviation Accreditation Board International ? You can find details on their website but they represent university aviation programs and have for quite a while. Here are the university flight programs, so far: Aviation Accreditation Board International Accredited Programs Some have been in existence for 50+ years. I contacted my long time acquaintance whose entire career has been pilot education and who has been affiliated with AABI for a very long time. I asked him what percentage of the training slots these schools represent are now filled by students. He said: "I don’t know exact percentages, but I think everyone is basically doing well, with strong enrollments." He did say he wonders if these schools are able to fill the demand over time but was speaking of the university system AABI represents, IIUC; there are also many other commercial training organizations from big schools (ATP, American Flyers, etc.) to mom-and-pop flight schools…even experiments like Jetblue's proposed ab initio program (details/impact/copycats yet to come). The military has seemingly been cutting back and some UPT grads are being sent to drones so that traditional source may be less than in previous decades. Things here are in flux with every day being a new day. There'll be pain short term and it sounds like you're experiencing some of it. I have strong confidence in the ability of the market here to respond to demand despite the heavy, incompetent hand of government. We're not Kazakhstan…we have the practiced, long-proven infrastructure in place to respond to market demand even if it takes a while…and it certainly will. And, yes, this all can change with the next economic upheaval or geopolitical disaster. |
Recession and hiring
I was talking to a friend few weeks ago, and we agreed that with this retirement numbers, even if we get a HUGE recession, they will still hire, at a lower pace, but they will have to, in our opinion.
We are not talking about a few hundred retirements here and there, we are talking about thousands and thousands. On the other hand, and I admit that it's sad, but since recessions are now something more and more common, the economy suffers a lot, layoffs everywhere, etc etc....but at the same time people will keep travelling, won't just sit waiting, they'll for opportunities and stuff like that. So if we are talking about I don't know, 12-14,000 retirements in the next 20 years? (no idea about the precise number), maybe with a few crisis and recessions here and there, crews will get to fly a lot more if they are undercrewed, and they would end up hiring 6-8,000 instead.....just throwing a number. What I'm trying to say is that no matter how bad the economy is, those airlines are huge, tons of routes, tons of passengers, and they could stop hiring if they didn't have so so many retirements. And being politicians as dumb as a human being can be, I wanna think they learn a couple of things everytime economy goes to hell, so next time is a different reason or it doesn't last that much. |
SextanteUK,
To put some broader context to your point about numbers of US age-65 retirements, I got a bar graph of that data directly from ALPA R & I people. It was based on early 2012 numbers of ONLY [at that time...a couple of others added since then] ALPA-represented airlines and spans 2012 through 2056 so it's just a tad out of date. The curve seems to peak about the 2026/2028 time frame after which the annual totals shown begin decreasing but are still substantial for a long time. These numbers will have morphed somewhat for a variety of reasons but still represent a Big Picture snapshot as of a few years ago. For the 15 year period inclusive of 2016 through 2031, the total age-outs are: 26,886 As you said, events can alter the situation considerably but I'd guess the people on the bottom of seniority lists here can take at least a small measure of comfort in that data. Of course, first ya gotta GET the job...a whole other thread ! Try to hit it on the upswing. :-) (I don't know how to post that chart or I would.) |
Dang! 26,886 is a HUGE number, so even better haha. Let's say they end up hiring 50% of that number, I should get lucky :E
Once I finish my training in a couple of months I'll have 350h, so I still need to get to 1500h, get my degree online while a fly for 'X' years in a regional, and then who knows. I'm just trying to be positive and visualize a prosperous future :ok: I saw a couple of RJ carriers with flow to AA, where they specify no degree is required anymore!, wich makes me think they foresee a real need in the future no matter what. We'll see!! :8 |
SextanteUK,
Someone who actually knows what he's talking about may come along to give career guidance but I get the IMPRESSION that the hours between a fresh CPL and 1500 may be some of the hardest to get. And, if you're going to get a degree online, you might want to get on with that as soon as you finish flight training since life can get in the way and slow down progress. Airlines may not advertise a degree as a requirement but that doesn't mean they don't prefer one as a way to differentiate between otherwise similar applicants. It's their party so they decide who gets invited even if their POV is of debatable logic. A degree is roundly debated but the opinion of the airline HR policy makers is the only one that matters. |
I'm from Spain, and over there is almost impossible to get to 1500h unless you pay for it. Other than than that you can only apply to Ryanair and company, and if you get lucky, then you gotta pay your type rating, some 25k+.
Not saying is super easy here, but there are a lot of operators out there hiring with CPL and 250h. Salary is crap, but it is what it is, and this sacrifice will open doors in the future. Think Alaska operators, Caravan Operatos, pipeline patrol, and of course the CFI route. So it should take around 18 months to get to 1500h, once I'm hired somewhere. I'll cross my fingers :8 And yes, as soon as is doable, money/time wise, I'll start with my degree, and hopefully they'll give some credits for my ratings. :ok: |
You can add about 10,000 AA pilot retirements to the ALPA numbers.
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even better!!, If I don't making in the next 5 years then I should just go back to construction haha. :yuk:
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I am advertising all over the US for pilots and the resumes sent to me are not anything as good as they were even three years ago. The pickings for me are slim to non-existent. So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need, whereas a few years back I was able to choose from many highly qualified pilots and resumes were sent to me dozens a week with many great people simply walking in the door. After a major advertising blitz I just took on 5 pilots to replace those lost to the majors and freight companies and only one is willing to give me full time.
The salaries in my area have gone up amazingly to attract pilots but even then there are few or no takers. I know the majors will never have trouble but for every pilot at AA thousands are required at the lower level to support that demand. The pyramid of pilots has the airline captains at the apex and without a solid base that pyramid will topple. I can assure you that the dozens of articles written by the Part 135 and Part 121 Regionals every week reporting the shortage are true. The most logical reason for the shortage is the 1500 hour requirement, which had nothing to do with safety and everything to do with ego. |
No, the most logical reason for this shortage is the crap salary you and the others are offering! Why do you think there isn't a shortage anywhere else in the world?
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boofhead,
"So far of the dozens I have received this year I cannot accept any of them because they simply don't have the experience I need..." When you say "experience", do you mean total time, time in type or in a specific category of flying ? IIRC, you're in Alaska ? If so, do you require/accept only Alaska experience ? No one applied you could hire and bring along to be what you need/require. In terms of total flight time, it's gained one hour at a time and can't be rushed all that much. And, there's only one way to get Alaska experience. :-) I certainly believe it when you say there's a supply pressure at the moment as people are undoubtedly moving from one job to another they like better or one that'll contribute to getting them two jumps up the ladder longer term. While it's little consolation at the moment, the available data shows the vacancy vacuum at the legacy level peaking circa 2028. I don't know anything at all about Part 135 ops. I've only known people who did it before or after a Part 121 career...and very few of those. |
I too don't know where you get your numbers from! I am what you refer to as a "Legacy" and have been unemployed for 7 years! Because of my "Age", no one will look at me or any other pilot over 50! Please understand this; THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE!!!! THERE NEVER HAS BEEN A PILOT SHORTAGE!! It's all B.S.!!! Could there BE a pilot shortage? Sure. Especially the way Corporations treat their pilots and the cost of getting all the necessary Ratings. The truth is, most "Companies" these days want "Qualified" pilots who look like they just stepped of the pages of GQ Magazine in addition to allow themselves to become "indentured slaves". Also factor in the fact that "They" are currently developing "Pilotless Aircraft!! That's right! For years now "They" have been developing AND testing "Self-Flying Aircraft!! Imagine what THAT will do to "Pilot Demand"!!!
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I just told you the salaries have gone up so that is not the reason. I can see that at the top there is no shortage but what I am saying is that there are way fewer people joining aviation at the bottom and without those numbers the pyramid will fall. The 1500/ATP rule had nothing to do with safety. Frankly I don't know why it was enacted because it can only hurt. Most airlines would not promote to command until a few thousand hours at least and a SIC in the right seat would at least be getting training in the areas of operation. Now the potential SIC has to get the hours outside, perhaps flight instructing, gaining no useful experience in the business, before being even able to apply for the first job.
Now the numbers of beginners is way low and the effect on the top after a few more years will be just as bad as it is now at the lower levels of the industry, such as Part 135. |
Yes I need Alaska experience but more importantly I need 4000 hours flight time and a large amount of PIC time in multi engine airplanes. It is a tough world out there. I am competing with the majors and freight carriers and they offer jet time and a career, as well as way more money than I can ever hope to pay. In the olden times those carriers would have their choice of youngsters with 500 hours or so, but now they, like me, will take whatever is on offer.
I used to get more than enough to have a decent choice but no longer. One of my best pilot pools is those who have retired at 65, can you believe it? |
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