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-   -   Iran (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/586655-iran.html)

Bonkey 1st April 2025 07:59

At least the Iranians will know of the target co-ordinates and exact timings in advance though.

Lonewolf_50 1st April 2025 12:27


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11858414)
it was couched hypothetically,

I am not interested in your silly games, nor am I obliged to play them.
Have you not grasped that? Go play them with somebody else.

I have ample capacity to put myself in someone else's shoes removed

ORAC 1st April 2025 13:48

Posted yesterday, so read today as yesterday.......

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is claiming to have attacked and seized two oil tankers today in the Persian Gulf, which they claim were part of a “fuel smuggling network” in the Gulf.

The two tankers, identified as STAR l and VINTAGE, were captured during a naval operation by the IRGC earlier today, with 25 crewmembers being arrested while the tankers are transferred to an oil port in the city of Bushehr, where their fuel will be offloaded and seized by Iran.

One of the tankers is believed to be owned and operated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the other is currently unknown.

Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/iran-oil-ta...s-irgc-2053523


Iran Oil Tanker Seizure Stokes Tensions with U.S.

ORAC 1st April 2025 14:00

Plus the Carl Vinson CVBG** arriving along with other assets being deployed.


Whatever it is Trump is planning re Yemen/Iran, past two weeks saw the biggest surge in deployment here since Oct2023 war began.

My tracking shows March had about ~140 USAF cargo flights to Jordan/Qatar/Saudi/Bahrain/Kuwait - about 50% higher than previous monthly high.


Notables:

6 flights
from David Monthan (a-10s?) to Azraq, Jordan*,
7
flights from Boise to Azraq
10 flights from Osan base, Japan to Bahrain (mostly) + Qatar
7 flights from Hill AFB (F35s) to Riyadh,
10 flights from Fort Sill to UAE/Kuwait,
and many support flights for B-2 deployment to Diego Garcia.

​​​​​​​* https://taskandpurpose.com/news/a10-warthogs-middle-east-houthis/

​​​​​​​
** https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-carl-vinson-yemen/

ORAC 1st April 2025 17:32

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-d...ycsrp_catchall

Russia condemns 'ultimatums' after Trump threatens to bomb Iran

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia has warned that strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure would have "catastrophic" consequences, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran unless it came to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

"Threats are indeed being heard, ultimatums are also being heard," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Russian journal "International Affairs" in an interview, extracts of which were published on Tuesday.

"We consider such methods inappropriate, we condemn them, we consider them a way for (the U.S.) to impose its own will on the Iranian side."

Russia has for the most part refrained from sharp criticism of Trump, with whom President Vladimir Putin has moved quickly to repair relations in a rapprochement viewed with concern by Ukraine and its European allies.

The Kremlin has offered to mediate between the Trump administration and Iran, with which it signed a strategic partnership treaty in January.

Trump, in his first remarks since Iran rejected direct negotiations with Washington, told NBC News over the weekend that Tehran could face bombing and secondary tariffs if it did not reach an agreement over its nuclear program.

"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing," he said. "It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."

During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that placed strict limits on Tehran's disputed nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran says it needs nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and denies it is seeking to build an atomic bomb.

Ryabkov said Trump's recent comments only served to "complicate the situation" in regards to Iran. "The consequences of this, especially if the strikes are on nuclear infrastructure, could be catastrophic for the entire region," Ryabkov said.

"While there is still time and the 'train has not left', we need to redouble our efforts to try to reach an agreement on a reasonable basis. Russia is ready to offer its good services to Washington, Tehran and everyone who is interested in this," he said.

ORAC 1st April 2025 17:57

VideoChannel 14 Israel: A large-scale attack on Iran will begin soon, and it will be "a strike unprecedented since World War II."

dead_pan 1st April 2025 18:02

By whom - Israel or the US (or both)?

Given the handle of the X user I'd guess this may be wishful thinking.

T28B 1st April 2025 18:08

ORAC, they seem to have ignored the benefits of surprise. This got me to thinking. I looked into their principles of war.
UK compared to Israel:
UK Selection and Maintenance of the Aim; Maintenance of Morale, Offensive Action, Security, Surprise, Concentration of Force, Economy of Effort, Flexibility,Cooperation, Sustainability
Israel: Maintenance of the aim; Morale; Initiative; Stratagem; Concentration of effort; Security; Optimal utilization of force; Continuity; Depth and reserve; Simplicity.
I didn't see "Surprise" in there. Perhaps they call it something else.
I had thought that "surprise" would be a universal element of the principles of war, but apparently it is not.

for dead pan
Please don't tell me you think that it is a rumor! On PPRuNe! :eek:

Ozgrade3 1st April 2025 18:56

Videos abound on Youtube postulating that Iran is perhaps weeks away from having serviceable nukes. A mad as a hatter Islamic regime having nukes is un tenable. The nukes, the capacity to make more nukes and said ruling religious regime must be removed no matter the cost. It's that simple. Taking iran out of the picture will solve a lot of the worlds problems in one fell swoop.

dead_pan 1st April 2025 19:19

Videos on YouTube?? Well that's me convinced!

Assuming it is imminent, there is the distinct possibility an attack would precipitate its use.

As for:


Taking iran out of the picture will solve a lot of the worlds problems in one fell swoop.
What problems exactly? Hamas and Hezbollah are spent forces, and the Houthis an occasional menace.

ORAC 1st April 2025 19:19

VideoCENTCOM commander Gen. Kurilla arrived in Israel today and is holding meetings with top security officials, per Kann News

T28B 1st April 2025 21:13


Originally Posted by Ozgrade3 (Post 11858858)
It's that simple. Taking iran out of the picture will solve a lot of the worlds problems in one fell swoop.

I think that you overstate your case.
What do you mean by "Taking Iran Out" beyond a simple sound byte? I'll reserve further comment until you clarify that.

BBadanov 1st April 2025 21:47


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11858824)
ORAC, they seem to have ignored the benefits of surprise. This got me to thinking. I looked into their principles of war.
UK compared to Israel:
UK Selection and Maintenance of the Aim; Maintenance of Morale, Offensive Action, Security, Surprise, Concentration of Force, Economy of Effort, Flexibility,Cooperation, Sustainability
Israel: Maintenance of the aim; Morale; Initiative; Stratagem; Concentration of effort; Security; Optimal utilization of force; Continuity; Depth and reserve; Simplicity.
I didn't see "Surprise" in there. Perhaps they call it something else.
I had thought that "surprise" would be a universal element of the principles of war, but apparently it is not.

T28B, are you telling me 'SMOSSCEFCA' has gone out the window?
But I take your point, "Surprise" should be taken as read. Maybe they just call it "SOP", or "Readiness".

T28B 2nd April 2025 01:05


Originally Posted by BBadanov (Post 11858942)
T28B, are you telling me 'SMOSSCEFCA' has gone out the window?
But I take your point, "Surprise" should be taken as read. Maybe they just call it "SOP", or "Readiness".

I was somewhat surprised by what I found at the link I provided.
Apparently, each country has its own version of "principles of war" (the Americans use MOSSMOUSE).
SMOSSCEFCA is probably alive and well, wherever it was founded.

artee 2nd April 2025 01:23


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11859013)
I was somewhat surprised by what I found at the link I provided.
Apparently, each country has its own version of "principles of war" (the Americans use MOSSMOUSE).
SMOSSCEFCA is probably alive and well, wherever it was founded.

I presume you're referring to the Wikipedia page? It was a malformed link in your post.
Here's the Wikipedia Principles of war.

Fascinating reading, thanks. :ok:

BBadanov 2nd April 2025 02:54


Originally Posted by artee (Post 11859020)
I presume you're referring to the Wikipedia page? It was a malformed link in your post.
Here's the Wikipedia Principles of war.
Fascinating reading, thanks. :ok:

Thanks Artee, that answers my question. I was brought up on the 20th Century version - which your source reveals was changed in 2011, and states: 'The tenth principle, added later, was originally called Administration.'

Bidule 2nd April 2025 05:21


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11858627)
I am not interested in your silly games, nor am I obliged to play them.

Fair enough, but in such case, you should ignore the post and not reply to it.....

.

Gordon Brown 2nd April 2025 07:35

I wonder what happens if USA attacks Iran then Iran retaliates against deployed US Forces. Does the USA holler “Article 5!!!!!” ? And if so, does the rest of NATO respond?

ORAC 2nd April 2025 08:14

Not inside the NATO area, see Article 6…..


Article 6

“For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.”


Asturias56 2nd April 2025 16:29

I'd assume there may be serious pressure in Iran to complete at least one bomb and test it ASAP - it doesn't have to be smart, it just has to go off.


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