AFPRB 2023
 

So, it is delayed again...as usual...
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Can anyone remember a year when the AFPRB report (or it’s recommendations) wasn’t delayed?

Wasn’t the one where they upped the charges more than the pay delivered on time?

Must be a good 5 or more years ago now since it wasn't delayed....

It’s worse than that…the Defence Secretary….yes, that’s right the ex serving officer Defence Secretary, gave the AFPRB board the remit to report by May! So he’s actually built in a delay of at least 3 months. I wrote to him noting that the Government had said that it would honour the pay review body’s recommendations for the nurses in full and hoped that that would be case for SP too. I also reminded him that an unconsolidated payment was not honouring the award in full (as happened a couple of years ago). I had a reply from an unnamed lackey saying that the unconsolidated payment was ‘in the spirit’ of the award, trotting out the Government’s mantra at the time.

it really isn’t good enough.

Hopefully we will know soon what the decision is?
 

Late, and not independent.

Is there any wonder that people feel undervalued?

3% if we’re lucky. And the usual platitudes about people being our best asset.

Can’t strike but forced to cover for those striking because a pay rise double that is deemed unacceptable.

And they wonder why morale is at rock bottom and people can’t wait to get out. It stinks.

If you put up with it for long enough when you do get out the pension is indexed linked. Something to ponder if anyone is thinking of staying beyond an immediate pension point.

Junior doctors call off strike after new offer in Scotland. See the BBC for details……

So, it seems the Armed Forces are going to get a pay award less than the AFPRB recommendation.

However, junior doctors in Scotland at least will be appeased with a 4.5% award for last year and an award of 12.4% for this year. As well as a guaranteed inflation matching award for the next 2 years. NHS England will surely match this offer to end industrial action south of the border.

So, I wonder how well received the PMs pay deal will be for us? And how valued we will all feel in the coming weeks.

interesting times !

Link
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66136659

The reason that the pay awards are to be kept below inflation is to combat inflation. However when we are discussing the NHS all bets are off.

It will be interesting to see how this discrepancy will be explained away, although no doubt the Scottish government will be blamed. What will Westminster do to appease Jnr Doctors in England ?

It is a shame that those who have no say in the pay award they are given and cannot do anything about it will suffer as SP surely can expect to here.

I am guessing this won’t do anything to bolster retention and I can envisage some hard times ahead for the services.

Interesting and worrying times, I agree.

A bitter pill
 

This whole problem became increasingly obvious for me towards the end of my time in the RAF. Sadly you are not valued, you do not matter to anyone except your family and you will never earn what you deserve. If the ‘love of the job’ or King and Country is no longer enough then there really is only one option. As much as it pains me to say it (I didn’t and don’t hate the RAF) the only option is to walk out. Leave and do something else. Hopefully enough others will do it for someone to sit up and take notice. Though I doubt they ever will. And the military will continue to be overlooked until it’s potentially too late.

Civvy street may not be any better (and before LJ says it, the pensions aren’t as good) but it sure as hell isn’t any worse.

Sorry to be the doom monger but hoping for a good payrise is sadly a fools enterprise. You’ll just pay higher taxes to pay for the pay rises of those who were able to stamp their feet and demand more.

BV

This on the front page of The Times:

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So hopefully more towards 6% than 5%! There will also hopefully be further good news on the development of Aircrew pay expected to be announced next year. Yes, and as BV says, the pension is still very good and so has to be viewed as part of the deal (hopefully with a ~6% increase baked into the career averaging element for AFPS15). We just need inflation to nudge below 6% soon to feel a little better about it (not forgetting the average for FY22/23 was around 9%, so as this rise is effectively “in arrears” for last year’s inflation, it yet again falls behind and devalues pay).

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d95da8d09.jpeg

Ever the optimist, if inflation does go down below 5% by the end of the year, then a similar 6% next year would start to see value being added again for the financial year we are in now.


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I believe the increase to AFPS15 is related to average earnings which was 7% this year, this increase has been applied already to the 15 part (the pension calculator hasn't been updated yet though). The 75 uplift depends on the pay rise we get so no doubt will be lower.

Just to show what that 1 year “in arrears” pay rise effect looks like I have plotted the annual pay rises against it’s previous year’s inflation. As you can see, this year’s rise, if it is 6% will be painful and effectively wipe out any 0.1% to 0.3% gains we’ve made since 2016. Prior to that we were about 8% below where we should have been thanks to “pay restraint” and “austerity”.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8880f1c15.jpeg

But if the Government did award say a 9% pay rise across the board for Public Sector workers then our inflation would likely be even higher for longer. Don’t forget that the economy and markets don’t like unfunded and unsupportable Government measures - remember the disaster of “Trussonomics” and Kamikwasi’s crazy plans!

So marginal gains are the most likely in future years to claw back what value has been stripped from our pay scales. So at best we should hope for 1-2% gains over inflation towards a better deal. Unless something like a new pay structure like Haythornthwaite recommends makes a select few considerably better off.

PS. I should add that this does not include anyone with annual increments or those that have promoted. So they will still likely be ever so slightly better off as these tend to be an extra 1-2% for seniority increments and 5-7% for promotion.

Kind of, I’ve wrestled with this one in my mind before. The AFPRB recommendation is trying to preserve the value of your current pay rate - so if inflation has averaged 2% the previous year and AFPRB recommend 3%, then you will see a 1% rise overall. The same goes for any of the AFPS - if the Main Pay (which is pensionable) goes up: the ‘representative rate of pay’ for AFPS75 will go up (so will the final rank pension); for AFPS05 then if your Main Pay goes up then your “1/70th of your best 365 days pay in your last 3 years” will also attract that uplift; for AFPS15 then again if Main Pay goes up then your “1/47th of your annual pay going into your notional pot” will also go up by that amount, however, the Annual Wage Earnings (AWE - which is different to inflation) will only grow that deferred pension pot over the next few years.

You have to do some fancy maths with understanding the full effect of the pay rise on AFPS15, as it is more than just the rise itself.

Seems to have gone quiet over the last few days wrt public sector pay rises. Just throwing up a ‘caution caption’ against LJ’s optimism as there appears to be a clear split in the cabinet against supporting the various pay body recommendations or ignoring them in the war on inflation. So standby for the 6% recommendation becoming 3% actual?

On a separate note, the AFPS have released a note that says the new McLoud compatible pension calculator should be released on the 1st August. Whilst long overdue but nevertheless clearly welcome, I fear this will only add to further increases in the PVR/ET rate when even more disgruntled SP get to see how much better off they might be under their chosen option. Particularly those in the MEOS bracket who were stuck on AFPS75 up until April last year.

Beyond pensionable length of service ✔️
Unhappy with Salary, compared to other trades ✔️
​​Awaiting TG1 FRI info ✔️
Don't want promotion to the next rank ✔️

See what comes eh..

Remember a few years back when the AFPRB recommended a wallet busting 2.9% and it was paid as 2% + 0.9% non consolidated bonus? I did wonder when they said last week we always honour the Pay Review Bodies’ recommendations . Odds on a re-run?