Originally Posted by harbour cotter (Post 11380536)

We all know that the Chinese play the long game. I doubt anything of value would be found in the wreckage. The balloon could have served many functions, but perhaps one of them is merely a trial to test the potential of future Balloon raids using prevailing winds. The Japanese ineffective fire raids are well known, but what is less well known is the successful British Balloon raids on Germany during World War ii. Certainly the most cost effective bombing campaign of the war. Balloons with wire attachments, sometimes with a small charge. They caused a lot of damage to crops during the summer as well as bringing down power and telephone lines and even destroying a power station on one occasion. There were numerous German forces (civilian and military) tied down in trying to contain and mitigate the damage. They were dispatched by WAAF's (I may be incorrect on this but it was certainly women from one of the Forces) of whom I think at least one died. The damage caused was out of all proportion to the effort and cost involved. They simply used prevailing winds. I think Churchill urged caution in case the Germans retaliated, but it would be very rare indeed for this to occur simply because there were few, if any, prevailing winds toward the U.K. from Germany. Even the Germans were surprised that Britain did not make more use of them. Obviously they could not be directed and many found their way to neutral Switzerland and beyond who complained bitterly. But if China were to use them on a widespread campaign, for example releasing a million simultaneously, then I am sure it would cause chaos and yet be comparatively cheap to undertake without the need of modern weaponry. Just speculation of course, but it is a possibility. Would any country be prepared for that?

Originally Posted by Captain Dart (Post 11380176)

I spent 28 years as an airline jock flying into and over China on a regular basis. Observations:

Convoluted air routes to avoid their military bases (not that you could see much as the country is 99% smog).

Sometimes threatening or actually having to declare an emergency in order to get clearance to deviate to avoid thunderstorms.

Narrow, crowded corridors for civvies to fly in with the military controlling the rest of their airspace.

A general impression of a paranoid regime.

My point? I can imagine the squealing from the ChiComms if a huge American ‘weather balloon’ ever overflew their neck of the woods.

Originally Posted by Hilife (Post 11380546)

Presumably, being a balloon, then like any other balloon it just went where the wind took it?

Balloon pilots are able to use varying winds at different altitudes for directional control (clearly within limitations and not an exact science) and even high-up using Jetstream’s, so for me, the balloons incursion of US airspace was no accident.

Whether it be public/press or government/DoD response to this overfly, there can be no doubt, China will have learnt plenty from this episode.

Originally Posted by Ascend Charlie (Post 11380833)

"Our barroon fright compretery successful, now under water off east coast. Now we risten to US submarines."

Originally Posted by Yellow Son (Post 11380940)

Press reports say F22 used Sidewinder. F22's gun would surely have been cheaper; were there special reasons for choosing a missile?

Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11380836)

This was not a hot air balloon.

Originally Posted by Stu666 (Post 11380946)

Gun door on F-22 can't be opened above a certain height, don't recall exact figure but I believe the balloon was at a higher altitude than this limit. They also wanted to ensure separation of the payload and balloon; this I imagine would've been tricky to achieve with a gun.

Originally Posted by B Fraser (Post 11380980)

Precisely. Left with low plus right with height only works up to around 2,000 feet at best. Remember your met exams and the geostrophic wind ? Plus you need someone to work the burners and keep an eye on the GPS. Johnny Chinaman seemed not to have included either.

In any case, I found it only worked 70% of the time.

Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11379635)

Doesn't sound much like a weather balloon.
I read elsewhere that the US doesn't want to shoot it down because they are gaining massive intelligence from their observations.
That being said, photos from 60k ft. could be much more revealing than a spy satellite 100+ miles up... There are several ICBM missile sites in and around Montana...

Originally Posted by Low average (Post 11379506)

In my opinion, the capabilities of this balloon are probably minimal and not the point. This is a strong statement from China - they can put their hardware directly over the US unopposed, and visible for all to see.

Powerful.

Originally Posted by 5thGenOnly (Post 11379824)

I can’t really understand what the problem is. How is floating a weather balloon/surveillance balloon over someones airspace any different to having surveillance satellite in a LEO?

I’m pretty sure that if it is >FL600, the there is very little risk. After all, i’d have a guess that the US overflies many other countries >FL600 with both manned and unmanned surveillance systems.

Now, if sovereign airspace had a internationally recognised vertical limit, then this incident would be different.

Originally Posted by tutgby (Post 11380948)

Don’t really care about the cost of a single 9X when you’re a superpower…