The shape of warfare is changing and the Cold War missions that the legacy types were ace at aren't really relevant from both a risk-taking or financial-burden (keeping everyone current) level. C-130 can do things that is arguably not that relevant any more but we keep these skills just in case. The kicker is that by retiring the C-130 before the A400M is ready you're leaving yourself with a capability gap that will take a long time to back-filll, even with things that the A400M aircraft is technically cleared to do right now, but nobody aside from the test pilots and maybe some of the instructors have ever done. This isn't high-tech merit stuff either, these are basic air drop and air-land skills.

Without having a crystal ball or a direct line to the CAS, we must make some assumptions:

- A400M probably isn't going to be flying OLF alone and unafraid or even multi-ship to drop supplies below the radar to a Long-Range Recon Patrol.
- It probably won't need to low fly much at all since the on-board kit will allow it to do almost everything IMC. Our (and allied) 5th gen air force will negate the IADS and enemy DCA and thus will allow it to transit medium level to the DZ / TLZ and do a steep approach to avoid the small arms to drop / land.
- It will need to do 16X stuff - Low Level Para, CDS / Light Stores, day and night natural surface TLZ operations, and maybe some heavy drop of vehicles. Op FORTIS . (This, in the author's opinion, is where it should be at minimum before retiring C-130)
- It will need to do some specialist stuff. Probably high-altitude parachuting, probably dispatching small and large boats plus troops in the littoral, high seas, and inland areas.

How many of these things can it currently do operationally (none?) and how many will it be able to do by 1st April 2023? (hopefully some!) How many of these capabilities will we decide we don't need anymore having been without them for a while? How many are we going to struggle to stand back up again credibly when all the people who've been doing it for decades have moved on? It's clear that A400M is the future, it's just that the future may have arrived too soon.

If we're playing the three types off each other, then as other people have said the A400M is the middle aircraft. Bin off C-130 and have a bigger, softer Tac Airlifter (and ask Uncle Sam for help with complicated stuff the odd time that comes around) or bin off C-17 and have a smaller, slower Strat Airlifter (and hire an Antonov for moving really big stuff the odd time that comes around). Obviously in Mobility utopia we'd bin off A400M, buy more C-17s from the re-activated factory, and have MC-130Js like the Americans. Jagger said something about getting what you want.

C-17 was originally leased as a stop gap because A400 was late...........
C-17 proved to be so good, we bought them at end of these and bought some more before the line closed.

So, why didn't we bin all the A400 order then and order a few extra C-17 before they shut down the line, and order some new J's....seems to be the question.

Now we seem to be ditching the one true Tac asset and keeping two Strat.
I suppose the C-17's will be shagged out soon anyway and we'll be left with just A400M?

It turned out that the C-130K was not fit for purpose as a Tactical Transport until fitted many years later with ESF. Is the A400M fit for purpose as an AT? If not why not, and when will it be?

Capability gaps seem to be all the rage these days. Rather like playing with fire, it leads to burnt fingers!

"So, why didn't we bin all the A400 order then and order a few extra C-17 before they shut down the line, and order some new J's....seems to be the question."

And have the Daily Telegraph and the Wail complaining we wren't supporting UK industry?

Europrop International (EPI) GmbH is a consortium set up in 2002 in the form of a company governed by German law, by the four main European aircraft engine manufacturers, MTU Aero Engines, Safran Aircraft Engines, Rolls-Royce and Industria de Turbo Propulsores

very true. Sadly though, common sense will not prevail here and the Hercules is destined for the dustbin.

Just seen a photo on another forum taken on 22 Nov showing Bruntingrhorpe still has 6 Tristars apparently intact...........

Not for much longer.
I heard that they were due to be towed onto the scrapping pans this week, once they finished chopping up the couple of 747's they started cutting up recently.