Clear conscience... That's a joke. Thousands of troops dead. Countless civilians dead.

"I came across a memorial to British soldiers lost during the conflict in Afghanistan in Reading."

The Lion Memorial to the men of the 66th (Berkshire) Regiment killed at Maiwand 27th July 1880 - this wasn't a "guerrilla" battle but a full on pitched battle between regular soldiers on both sides

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dddd393c44.jpg

you may not see it as a defeat. Personally, I do, along I think with many others.

But whatever, it was a horrendous waste of British lives.

Didn't Canada lose more soldiers per capita than anyone else in Afghanistan?

I heard a tale about 10 years ago, that when British troops pitched up in Maiwand in a relaxed posture with an obvious 'hearts and minds approach, the village elders were initially nervous.

When conversation began to flow through a 'terp, they revealed they were nervous because they saw the union flags and assumed the British were back to avenge their losses at the Battle of Maiwand, 1880!

As the Taliban said - they have all the time...

Well worth reading Tugendhat's Twitter thread.
Clearly he is far too sensible to be a Cabinet minister.

Whilst ORAC did start this thread to look at post 2021, it is worth looking back as well. The UK govt were never fully committed to this campaign and were unwilling to spend the money to make it a real success. Contrast this with the money wasted on track and trace, which would have gone a long way. This is not a critique of any colour of politician's cloth as they are all guilty and Tony Bliar's escapade in Iraq, hanging on the coat-tails of Dubya, took away much needed focus and resource from where it was needed more.

Already mentioned on here are the previous 'wars' the UK has been involved in and I also commend the book by William Dalrymple even if it is a hard read at times. That book also exposes that those early escapades could have been successful were it not for some big tactical errors by some of the commanders at the time, including camping outside Kabul in a very poor defensive situation. Even then, engagement with local rulers, or warlords was the game, one that largely worked in India but was poorly exercised in Afghanistan.

If we go back even earlier we can learn from the Romans as well. How did a small group of people manage to hold sway for a hundred years over such a large area. Again it was through not only military force and expertise but also engagement with local chiefs. When the Romans withdrew from places such as Britannia, the dark ages began and we can arguably see that happening again across parts of the world including Afghanistan. I am a fan of democracy but there is a lot to be said for some form of dictatorship, noting the harm that this exercises on those who disagree with the leadership.

There is clearly no appetite in the Western world to put more boots on the ground in this country and so, containment must be the aim. There is a clear argument that pressure need to be put on countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who fund the Madrassas, which espouse an extreme view of what is a peaceful religion. I note that Pakistan has also lost huge numbers of troops in areas such as the Kashmir and border areas. It is the criminal element that needs to be contained, to cut off the heads of the snakes to prevent heroin being shipped to Europe. We need to support and nurture those more enlightened who have fled their country, so that in time, they may be in a position to exert pressure on group such as the Taliban and unite the tribes. Where will the next Lion of the Panshir come from? We need to take a leaf out of the Chinese book and look at the long game, although I despair that Western Politics, are too short term for any such philanthropic viewpoint.


Tony Bliar Brighton, 2001

In the inevitable fallout and navel gazing which follows this atrocious withdrawal and capitulation, maybe 'The West' should focus on who supported AQ and the Taliban!

Saudi and Pakistan...

Since they are, in historic terms, a recent creation, they have not had to wait that long,

You might not want to dig too deep into the origins of the Taliban and their precursors - the Islamic mujahideen. Look up (Operation Cyclone)
As ye sow......

Recent creation? They ARE the Mujahiddin! They have a 'corporate memory' stretching back to Alexander the Great.

No.

The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahi...anistan-195373

The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.

Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.

James Clapper (former USAF Lt Gen and Obama's intelligence director) was on Radio 4 at lunchtime and told it how it is. Having seen Biden up close and personal as VP, he said this moment has been telegraphed and this outcome has been inevitable for well over a decade, under three successive US presidents. I'll try to find it on BBC Sounds and post a link. (Edit: here, 27:30 in)

The choice facing Trump and then Biden was not a simple stay or go. There was no status quo stay option; the only alternative to 'go' was 'escalate' as the Taliban resurgence would have eventually forced the West to resume a full combat role. It is frankly embarrassing to hear Ben Wallace trying to drop 100% of the blame on the US by claiming that he tried to rally the international community to support a continuing presence and pointing the finger at Trump, which he thinks allows him a free hit.

I heard Tugendhat on the radio. He offers no credible end state and in the light of the above his argument boils down to a straightforward sunk cost fallacy. Sorry to be blunt but having served on HERRICK I feel entitled to be.

Now, expect political and academic recriminations as the 'interventionist' foreign policy lobby tries to blame and heap moral shame on the 'realist' lobby for pushing (and winning the argument for) withdrawal. To me that's like an arsonist blaming and shaming the fire brigade for causing water damage.

"They are obviously sponsored and advised by somebody. Your local gang of mudfighters would not move coordinated like they do. "

the same folk thrashed the British several times and the Russians in the days before "hearts & minds" - they seem quite well able to take care of themselves

Much the same in the Yemen - just stay away

Eminent strategist and Iraq Inquiry panellist Lawrence Freedman just retweeted this cogent thread, which captures the essence of the matter. Fingers crossed our leaders can ride out the storm of naive outrage without getting drawn back into the morass.

No. You seem to continually misunderstand the situation.

The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.

If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.

If you look at the old maps of the Afghani Empire in the 12th century . The maps are almost identical to where their present supporters reside .
What is old is new again . As for the eighteenth century point of view about Afghanistan being the grave of Empires , it might seem one of those graves was the old Afghani Empire .
I am starting to think that Kabul is a clever ambush being set up by those military geniuses who wear a lot of brass and sit on PhDs in modern warfare . As they say in Fort Benning if your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush

Kabul will not be as important as the fight for the water of the Indus River.

I think we are in agreement. If you read my last paragraph again.. I make the same point. They pre date modern incarnations with modern names.

Reading the press Biden is getting in the neck across the US media with comparisons to the fall of Saigon widespread.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...stan-gn22xc69v

RAF ready to airlift Britons from Afghanistan

RAF airplanes are on standby as Britain faces a “race against time” to evacuate thousands of British and Afghan citizens from Afghanistan before the Taliban take over the country.….

Commercial flights were yesterday packed with people attempting to leave the country as panic-stricken Afghans and foreigners crammed into Kabul’s international airport. There are concerns that the airport will become a prime target of the Taliban offensive.

Members of the 16 Air Assault Brigade will be sent to Afghanistan this weekend ready to assist with the evacuation. The Home Office is also deploying officials to help speed up visa requests for Afghan citizens.

While ministers say they are confident that they will be able to get Britons out of Afghanistan in time, one source said it would be “highly challenging”. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said: “Protecting British nationals and ensuring their safety as they leave Afghanistan is our top priority, which is why we are commencing Operation Pitting, for which our military are very well prepared….

Every flight scheduled in Kabul yesterday was leaving the Afghan capital. Around the perimeter of the airport, which is three miles from the centre of the city, layer after layer of heavy security checked vehicles and passengers’ tickets. Among the troops, the mood was tense…..

“Lots of security guards were there, and many checkpoints,” said Elham Ullah Khan, a Kabul resident who was putting his wife on a Turkish Airlines flight to the US yesterday. “Most of the passengers were not ordinary people, they were senior officials and foreigners with their own security,” he said. “Afghan officials were there with their families, trying to get out.”

Airlines and the Afghan government have urged people without tickets not to go to the airport, but that has not stopped many from turning up in search of a seat on any flight.….

Afghanistan has always been pretty much the same size as you point out. The surrounding "empires" (Russia, Persia, Arab, China, Sikh, British etc) have always tried to chip bits off or take it over but really have never succeeded.

Lots of money, liberally and regularly dispersed to the various tribal entities, seems the best way of keeping some sort of peace & quiet ( a very relative term in those parts)

He will (and must) ride it out. Not many in the US, least of all Biden, would argue that the US was wrong to abandon Vietnam when it did.

Opinion piece by Tom Tugendhat in a Middle East journal. Pretty close to the bone for a politician who is the Chair of the HoC Foreign Affairs Committee.

It is not the only mention I have seen if this being a “Suez moment” either. It would seem the UK policy of being an obedient junior partner* to US Middle East policy may have reached an end and that McMillan’s declaration that, “We would rather be wrong together than right separately”.

Successive UK governments delivered on that promise over the years up Blair and Cameron over Afghanistan and Iraq, till Cameron finally failed to win support from the HoC over support requested by the USA concerning Syria. I cannot foresee any future PM risking the political capital to do so again.

* https://nottingham-repository.worktr...putFile/779777

https://www.thenationalnews.com/opin...s-suez-moment/

If Kabul falls, it will be America's 'Suez moment'

Can Washington maintain the mantle of global leadership?

Commentary drawing on Suez and Macmillan is just selective, emotionally incontinent straw-clutching. Wilson's decision not to follow the US into Vietnam didn't harm the transatlantic relationship in the long term, any more than Paris is still in the doghouse over Iraq. And IIRC the Cold War went pretty well for the US after Saigon, you know, when it stopped pouring resource and political capital down into a SE Asian black hole and concentrated on winning the arms race directly.

Funny how it's so easy for the commentariat and interventionist scholars to call for "low cost" presence when it's never their personal interests or families at stake. Tens of billions of dollars, the bending out of shape of NATO forces, 10s-100s of Western deaths/serious injuries, 1000s-10000s of Afghan security forces deaths, and 1000s-10000s of civilian deaths per year is not "low cost".

Prof Patrick Porter lectures on realism at UK Staff College... read his Twitter thread @patrickporter76, he's knocking down the arguments against withdrawal like nine-pins.

Edit: I was just reflecting that the reported accommodation between the Taliban and China, not to interfere in suppression of the Uighur Muslims, is potentially a powerful counter-narrative for the West to use at home against the universalist claims of militant Islam and thereby to discredit jihadi recruiters. "Look, jihadis don't give a toss about their co-religionists, they're only interested in promoting their narrow political interests where they sense weakness".

Hopefully they’ll arrive in time - the fall of Kabul is looking more like. 90 hours than 90 days….

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ns-2021-08-14/

KABUL, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani said he was in urgent talks with local leaders and international partners as Taliban rebels pushed closer to Kabul, capturing a key town south of the capital that is one of the gateways to the city.….

He spoke soon after the insurgents took Pul-e-Alam, the capital of Logar province that is 70 km (40 miles) south of Kabul, according to a local provincial council member. The Taliban did not face much resistance, the provincial council member told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The gain of the city, a key staging post for a potential assault on Kabul, comes a day after the insurgents took the country's second- and third-biggest cities.

American troops have begun flying in to Kabul to help in the evacuation of embassy personnel and other civilians, a U.S. official said.

The Pentagon has said two battalions of Marines and one infantry battalion will arrive in Kabul by Sunday evening, involving about 3,000 troops…. An infantry brigade combat team will also move out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Kuwait to act as a quick reaction force for security in Kabul if needed, the Pentagon has said.

Britain and several other Western nations are also sending troops as resistance from Afghan government forces crumbles and fears grow that an assault on Kabul could be just days away……

Some embassies have begun to burn sensitive material ahead of evacuating, diplomats said.

The U.S. embassy in the Afghan capital informed staff that burn bins and an incinerator were available to destroy material including papers and electronic devices to "reduce the amount of sensitive material on the property," according to an advisory seen by Reuters…..

The maps I was referring were of the 12th century Afghani empire not 18th century AfghaniSTAN a more modern remnant of the Afghani Empire. The Afghani Empire was on both sides of the Indus River from the Arabian Sea to the mountains and all of the tributaries of the River Indus . The Afghani Empire predates Afghanistan , India , Pakistan and the modern borders and boundaries . The Tribal affiliations are very similar and the Area of the old Afghani Empire watershed is now being disputed by three nuclear armed countries . Water disputes are going to get more dangerous as the world warms . The Nile dams are creating similar threats as the Indus River threats to peace .

Orac is probably right again . The end is hours away , not weeks or months . I thought it might be a clever ploy , but it is beginning to look like Saigon 2.

My apologies , I am having trouble finding the links to the old maps that I was referencing , and nothing about them in my Chambers Dictionary of History . So it cannot be important .

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...e-in-q99sth9bz

Britain prepares to end diplomatic mission in Afghanistan as Taliban close on Kabul

Britain is to abandon its diplomatic presence in Afghanistan as the Taliban surged to within seven miles of Kabul, sparking fears in Whitehall that the capital could be overrun in “a few days”.

Senior government sources said the UK would evacuate its ambassador and staff, and would no longer maintain an embassy outpost there.

The full extent of the British withdrawal became clear amid a swift Taliban advance. The fighters were clashing with the Afghan army just outside the capital, where western forces have set up a defensive perimeter at the airport….

Whitehall officials who began the weekend saying the withdrawal would be complete by August 31 and ended it with a senior source warning: “The fear is the airport will not hold for more than a few days.”.

A second added: “The majority of the evacuation will have to be done by the RAF. We will not maintain a diplomatic presence. There is no trust the Taliban will honour any assurances.”….

British troops were evacuating key nationals and setting up a processing centre to help 5,500 people escape.

The embassy staff are part of a contingent of 500 British government employees who need to leave Kabul. When cabinet ministers met in the Cobra emergency committee on Friday they were told that between 1,800 and 2,000 interpreters and their families also needed rescuing.

A further 3,000 “entitled personnel”, who include British and dual passport holders, some of whom work for security companies or aid organisations, are also included — although just 450 have registered an interest in leaving.

Military sources describe the evacuation operation as “high risk” and there are fears troops could come under Taliban attack or civil unrest could engulf the city. Possible threats include Taliban suicide bombers attempting to infiltrate the airport, civilians overwhelming the airport demanding to get on planes, or an airport crash closing the runway.

Another 2,000 people with some links to Britain could request safe passage. Military and intelligence sources say that as the evacuation nears its end and Kabul comes under attack there will be increasing requests from Afghan soldiers, intelligence agents and politicians for seats on RAF planes. The fate of Hamid Karzai, the former president, is of particular concern.

“Lots of British military personnel, diplomats and intelligence officials are seriously invested in Afghanistan and there is high-level pressure on ministers to provide hundreds of our key allies with sanctuary,” said a senior military source.

“We are not talking about some interpreters or the embassy cooks here. The SAS trained the Afghan special forces and MI6 has hundreds of allies across the local intelligence agencies. They want these people brought out and offering them sanctuary could be the key ensuring the evacuation runs smoothly as things start to break down in Kabul,” the source said.

Senior military sources say the Home Office is reluctant to give many of these people asylum because of the message it will send to other refugees. The collapse of Afghanistan is expected to lead to a wave of hundreds of thousands heading out of the country, helped on their way by hostile states such as Iran and Russia’s central Asian allies…..

Salute!

The so-called "collapse" is only another failure by "western" democracies to engage in "nation building".

This new failure is not what happened in VietNam, although we may see helo extractions at the end game as we did back in 1975.

The only comparison that sticks is that too much "help' creates dependency, and it also provides a great cash flow for the warlords and corrupt poly-tickians.

Gums sends...

Kabul now the only city left in government hands.

https://news.sky.com/story/afghanist...ntrol-12382021

Taliban seizes Jalalabad without a fight - Kabul is now the only big city that it does not control

Twitter

Sky reporting the Taliban are now in the outskirts of Kabul.

Some Taliban leaders reported as saying their men have been instructed to not interfere with those trying to evacuate - but it’s not a cohesive force taking orders to that extent - and the6 are also reporting that they are instructing all women to go to “protected areas”, whatever that means.

Sky reporting Taliban now within 3km of the presidential palace. Afghan army seem to have abandoned their posts.

Also reporting that senior ministers were seen leaving the city in cars this morning and multiple helicopter movements and activity around the palace, embassies etc.

No fighting or shooting and the Taliban seem to be in small groups. Correspondent made the comment it seemed more of a capitulation than a battle.

Sky reporting US embassy being evacuated. Showing live footage of a constant stream of CH-47s and Blackhawks flying in and out of the compound.

https://apnews.com/e1ed33fe0c665ee67ba132c51b8e32a5

"transitional government"
Sure, the Taliban are going to negotiate... It's a total defeat and the notion that they're a "reformed" movement is the worst kind of wishful thinking. An interview with one of their fighters in Kandahar included the following (I paraphrase): "The jihad will not be over until Islam conquers the whole world". This is a political movement based on Pashtun village religious culture with grandiose ambitions. It will once again attract maniacs from all over the planet. We are not done with Afghanistan.

JUST IN - Kabul on the verge of fall. Taliban on their way to the presidential palace for the "transfer of power" (AP)

JUST IN - Afghanistan's president Ghani is relinquishing power. Interim "government" led by the Taliban to be formed.

Taliban commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar to become president of Afghanistan.

Taliban commander: "It's our belief that one day mujahideen will have victory, and Islamic law will come not to just Afghanistan, but all over the world. We are not in a hurry. We believe it will come one day. Jihad will not end until the last day."

Chalk that up as another victory for Americans to add to their long list since.the one they co-chaired in 1945

Downing St has asked the Speaker to recall Parliament so that MPs can be briefed in the situation and can question ministers on their plans.

Matters to be discussed will include the matter of which Aghan local employees should be offered asylum.

We are done with propping up a puppet regime while trying to democratise the political culture (spot the contradiction in terms?). Islamist cranks can base themselves in Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, etc etc: there's nothing special about Afghanistan that means the West must occupy it forever. Yes OBL took sanctuary there in the 1990s, but it is no longer the 1990s. Surveillance and counter-terrorism capabilities have moved on. The global strategic situation has changed beyond recognition and the West's priorities have rightly changed. Pakistan and China are probably wondering why it took us so long to bail. They are not so dumb that they will now sit by and allow Afghanistan-based groups to wreak havoc. Pakistan is about to lose the leverage it held over the West for access to Afghanistan and will not want to risk economic sanctions by tacitly supporting terror. Its interest in Afghanistan is limited to denial of Indian influence, which it has achieved. And while China has reportedly cut a deal with the Taliban to prevent interference with the suppression of Uighur Muslims, Beijing will undoubtedly be wary of the potential for "rogue" universalist Islamist groups to gain a foothold, and labours under few of the constraints which have hampered the Western intervention. The vital interests of the neighbouring powers align closely enough to the West's that we should leave it to them to sort out.

Afghanistan has long been a proxy location for the conflict between Pakistan and India however that's not the whole issue. They have their own Taliban, the TTP, which, like the Afghan version, is a creature of the ISI. There is a powerful strain of fundamentalism in Pakistani society, predominantly in the Pashtun region, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that it will become stronger - particularly with an Islamic emirate on their border.
As for the range of possible venues for the "jihadi" diaspora to enact their fantasies, there are plenty available. However the example of an insurgency that has defeated 20 years of the USA's efforts to drag a primitive culture into the present is going to be an irresistible lure.
Although it's currently forbidden to acknowledge the fact, the whole problem of "Islamic fundamentalism" is inherent in the very basis of the religion.