"Return of a King" - William Dalrymple
 

Having travelled around Afghanistan in the 70s whilst Zaher Shah was still present and having read many books about the country's history, I can strongly recommend to anyone interested that they read the above book. The historical parallels with the current situation are nothing short of astonishing.

The core problem is that "Afghanistan" is a faulty notion, not a country. It never has been a unitary entity and never will be. It's a tribal region that has been intermittently (and mostly continually) in a state of internal conflict since the time of Alexander the Great. One of the original phases of "nation building" this time around was the stated objective of creating a national army / security apparatus which comprised a demographic which is representative of the Afghan population - ie about 40% Pashtun. This was never achieved even at officer level, with a high proportion being Tajiks - who had previously been at war with the Pashtun/Taliban. In consequence the National Army would always be seen as occupiers in the Pashtun region. Add to this the fact that the country has long been a proxy for the conflict between India and Pakistan, the latter having a vested interest in maintaining Pashtun/Taliban dominance.

During the long running civil war in the post-Soviet period the only effective counterbalance to the Taliban was the Tajik army based in the Panshir Valley under the command of Ahmad Shah Massoud (whose comrade Dr. Abdullah has since been a constant presence in the national government). Shortly before "9/11" Massoud visited Europe where he attempted to warn us about the peril represented by the presence of Bin Laden in Afghanistan. European politicians simply ignored him. Before the 9/11 attacks could be implemented, Bin Laden made sure that Massoud was assassinated. What might have been if only we'd listened?

The current withdrawal from the lost war in Afghanistan really does resemble the US debacle during withdrawal from Vietnam. Afghans of various ethnicities who believed that the West could drag this primitive region kicking and screaming into the 20th century are being abandoned to the tender mercies of the obscurantist mullahs of the Taliban. TV news programs are already recounting the appalling situation of translators who have been denied even provisional asylum - often for completely absurd reasons. Tens of thousands of people are even less able to obtain asylum.

The country will be largely under Taliban control within a matter of weeks and they will be utterly merciless to the "collaborators"..

Aside from drug money who is funding the Taliban?

And “ The Great Game “ by Peter Hopkirk circa 1990.
Sadly our political masters don’t read history.

Sunni fundamentalists of many stripes. Pakistan - through political and logistical support. The Saudis via many proxy fig-leaves, like the Deobandi movement. Deobandi mosques in our towns. And, although they would usually deny it to "kufars", much of the Islamic world's population.

They left because the US were weaponising the mujahideen (Charlie Wilson), the Soviets were actually doing a lot of building in the country and its infrastructure, more importantly people were employed and had a decent living. You can still see it in Kabul today, tram tracks in the roads, massive grain mills, and the bog standard off the shelf soviet apartment blocks, which are locally known as macroyans... etc.. Now if Ahmad Shah Massoud had lived it might have been a very different situation today, Karzai should never have been put into power..
And yes, sadly I personally think things will deteriorate quickly
FYI the lower photo of the USSR leaving is actually on a bridge that they built, a vital link that is still in use today..

Looking at what's left from soviet days not much will be left from the western episode. Bound for stone age again and drug clans.

I must have been reading the wrong news reports about the Russian time in Afghanistan....as somehow the use of poison gas on civilians does not seem an effective way to win their Hearts and Minds?

Bombing and strafing villages also seems to be an odd way to provide full employment for workers.

If the Russians were doing such a grand job of "Nation Building" why were they engaged in combat with such ferocity as they were by the Taliban?

For those who only know of Charlie Wilson via Tom Hanks.....it was Congressional Legislation that funded support for the Muji's that Wilson was able to get passed into Law that he deserves credit for doing.

He was a sleazy guy personally.....but at least he saw a need to support those who were actively fighting a hostile Communist takeover of their own Country.

One that had no respect for Islam or its followers.

That wonderful bridge was built to facilitate the logistical support of Russian forces.....and not for the betterment of the Afghan people.

In no way can the Russians be seen as being in Afghanistan except for a perceived benefit to the Russians....and their support of a Communist Government in Afghanistan.

It would have been the first step towards the Indian Ocean for CCCP.
However stingers ended their air dominance.

LOL,, I'm glad I didn't say it was a good thing they did,, just pointed out a few things,, those apartments are still very popular maybe even prestigious dwellings to some of the poorer Afghans,, and there are a lot of them, !! And yes there is a lovely irony in the "peace" bridge !! Just glad I'm not there anymore..

Having had the opportunity to speak with Charlie Wilson a couple of years after the Tom Hanks movie was released, I understand the movie is largely a documentary and only a few of the scenes are there for the benefit of the movie goers.

If you remember the movie (or take some time to watch it again) Congressman Wilson's plea for funds for education, shown almost at the end of the movie and rejected by his peers, may well have been a game changer.

Too late now: the teaching medium will be Mandarin. .

MJG

In The Times.

Pakistan threatened to shoot down our planes attacking Taliban, claims Kabul

Not very neighbourly if true.

Maybe they are scared the Fakirs will redraw the map back to its pre British India lines . A very large part of Pakistan used to belong to Afghanistan .
No wonder they are getting nervous .

Things degenerating back to a warlord driven civil war - with air support…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...iban-pmf3j7wqq

US sends gunships and bombers to beat back Taliban

American B-52 bombers and Spectre gunships bristling with cannon have been sent into action against the Taliban in an attempt to stop the insurgents’ march on three key cities in Afghanistan….

Aircraft used by the Afghans, many of which were supplied by the US, are running out of spares, munitions and pilots. At least seven pilots have been targeted and killed by the Taliban and the rest are reported to be exhausted by the relentless bombing and troop-carrying missions.

The air force is also suffering a repair backlog because of the withdrawal of thousands of American contractors. More than a third of the force’s 162 aircraft and helicopters are inoperable.

In response, US defence sources told The Times that B-52s, a stalwart of US air power for 70 years that can each carry up to 32 tonnes of bombs, were flying from al-Udeid airbase in Qatar over southwest Pakistan and into Afghanistan to hit Taliban targets around Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, Kandahar and Herat.

The two other main US aircraft being used are AC-130 Spectre gunships, a heavily armed ground-attack version of a transport aircraft designed for low-altitude, close-air, cannon-firing support, and armed Reaper drones. Both aircraft are also based in Qatar, 1,000 miles away. At least five missions are being flown a day, the defence sources said.

The USS Ronald Reagan, an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, is also contributing its F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets to the missions….

Added to the growing expense of the post-withdrawal period will be the challenge of keeping the Afghan air force flying and combat-ready after the last of the 16,000 US contractors have left Afghanistan.

Captain Bill Urban, spokesman for US Central Command, which is in charge of the “over-the-horizon” operations in Afghanistan, said the maintenance of Afghan aircraft was being carried out in three ways. First, by the few hundred contractors still present in Afghanistan; second, by “virtual assistance” involving Zoom calls from the Gulf to Afghan mechanics; and third, by flying out aircraft to be checked “in a third country”, the location of which is secret.

Several aircraft have already been flown out by Afghan pilots, and flown back to rejoin the strike missions.

There is concern, however, that none of the US contractors will be in Kabul after August 31 as they are reluctant to stay without American back-up. If they were to stay longer, Urban said, it would also require a change of policy in Washington……

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...iban-zkhv7tts5

Afghan warlords rejoin the fight to defeat the Taliban

…Scores of districts throughout Afghanistan have been overrun by the Islamists as government forces buckle. More than a dozen cities are under siege, with bitter fighting on the outskirts of provincial capitals to the north, south and west. One of them, Zarranj, fell yesterday.

In an attempt to stave off total collapse, President Ghani has turned to the warlords and their militias. Local fighters who register with the government are paid a salary and supplied with weapons to defend their homes against the Taliban.

The move has drawn some infamous characters back to the fray, with ominous echoes of the Afghan civil war of the 1990s that spawned the Taliban.

Many of the warlords who emerged after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 also have brutal reputations and their return has raised fears that Afghanistan could once again implode as local powerbrokers vie for dominance…..

Khan was a former comrade of many Taliban commanders in the mujahideen that fought the Soviet Union during the 1980s. He gained notoriety for supporting US forces as the Taliban were routed in 2001. Now aged 75, he has made a point of appearing on the battlefield with his men as the battle for Herat has raged from street to street.….

Another notorious warlord from the civil war era, Abdul Rashid Dostum, also announced his return to Afghanistan to join the battle against the Taliban this week.

While the politicians manoeuvre, however, many on the front lines in Afghanistan’s war-torn cities are fighting for survival. Word of Taliban atrocities has spread throughout the country as tens of thousands flee the Islamist advance…..

https://news.sky.com/story/britons-w...phase-12374649

Britons warned to leave Afghanistan immediately as war enters 'deadlier and more destructive phase'

British nationals in Afghanistan are being told to leave immediately as the country's war moves into what the UN has described aIs a "deadlier and more destructive phase".

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on Friday evening issued an advisory against all travel to Afghanistan. It added: "If you are still in Afghanistan, you are advised to leave now by commercial means because of the worsening security situation."….

Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in the current Afghan government.
I'd expect the Taliban to be back in charge by fall.
The good news is that the US removed its people early, so no Viet Nam style helicopters off the roof scenes.
Just an all round disaster, where the worst thing is that no one is actually held responsible.
I've no idea how we will defeat insurgencies in Africa or Latin America if we cannot figure our how we screwed this one up.
Coming in after the Soviets should have been a cakewalk. Instead, we alienated everybody.
That takes real skill and determination. Unlearning those skills will be critical.

We got the US citizens out, but we left most of those who assisted the US Forces behind - giving them effectively a death sentence once the Taliban is back in charge (and like not a quick death).
Shame on us - and yet the US Government will wonder why people are reluctant to help us...

Says it all

https://www.insider.com/afghanistan-...ed-to-today-15

really?

added some extra letters to make post long enough

This is also one major reason why the Taliban haven't really been defeated. Pakistan is backing them massively and giving them Shelter when being attacked. And has been doing so for years.

It was a peaceful country slowly developing until outside forces came into play.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...-in-three-days

Taliban captures three more Afghan provincial capitals in a day

Things rapidly falling apart, including the Afghan Air Force - I don’t think a few B-52 air strikes are making much difference

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...ties-9svhbk0dt

Afghan pilots quit as Taliban take five cities in three days

Afghanistan slid towards collapse yesterday as the Taliban stormed three more cities and pilots deserted the air force after a colleague was murdered.

Five provincial capitals have fallen to the insurgents in three days as militants overran the northern cities of Kunduz, Sar-e Pol and Taloqan. A Taliban offensive left more than a dozen cities under siege after the dam burst on Friday as the western city of Zaranj fell without a shot being fired.

The northern city of Sheberghan capitulated on Saturday, after days of fighting. Other provincial capitals were on the brink of defeat.

Morale in the air force took a blow on Saturday when a helicopter pilot was killed in Kabul by a bomb attached to his car. The Taliban claimed the murder of Hamidullah Azimi, who was trained to fly US Black Hawks. He was the eighth Afghan pilot to be murdered in recent weeks.

The US-trained air force is pivotal to the defence against the Taliban. One pilot told The Times that at least 19 colleagues had fled the military, fearing assassination.

“I have been flying for ten years,” he said. “From the day I put on my uniform I swore to defend my country until the last drop of blood . . . but seeing my friends assassinated . . . I do not feel safe. I have to change the car I use every single day, borrowing my friends’ cars to drive to work. I can’t spend time outside my home. I can’t go shopping, not even get a haircut, to protect my identity and reduce the risk.”

With no air force the Taliban began to “target and eliminate” Afghan air force pilots. The pilot said that the strategy was working. He urged the government to move personnel and their families to military bases for safety.

“About 19 pilots left the job,” he said. “I am considering leaving my job. If the government can guarantee my family’s safety I will stay on base and fight for ever.”…..

The Afghan defence ministry said a counterattack had begun in Kunduz but its grip on the northern region appears to be slipping. The head of the provincial council for Sar-e Pol confirmed that the capital had fallen and fighting raged in Sheberghan, the capital of Jowzjan province.….

US and Afghan forces launched airstrikes, pounding Taliban positions. One insurgent commander dismissed the attacks from US bases and a carrier in the Gulf. He said: “America spent 20 years in Afghanistan and ultimately fled under a deal to save face. These airstrikes . . . will not last much longer.”….

Afghanistan’s air force is a rare U.S.-backed success story. It may soon fail

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...ir-force-story


https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war...zoom-call.html

Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, said Chairman Mao.
Thus far that looks like a pretty correct call.

It reminds me of Vietnam in 1975. A peace deal in name only that was agreed to by one side to buy time and the other just to get the hell out of there. The side that was always going to be staying just waiting to overwhelm government forces that don't have the strength to resist.

The worst thing that could happen to the Taliban is for them to win. Their last go at running the country was an unmitigated disaster. There is reason the 2001 air campaign defeated them in 20 days. They had squandered almost all of their popular support.

The Taliban is ultimately just another outsider supported invading force. They will get their arses kicked like everyone else who tried to upset the natural conglomeration of decentralized provincial ruler model, that has existed in Afghanistan for hundreds of years; in favour of a centralized autonomous governing power.

Plus the vast majority of the Taliban are good at killing people and blowing things up but have none of the actual skills required to run a country. The abject failure of ISIS to hold on to their conquered land is a useful recent example of the strengths and the weaknesses of these kinds of movements.

Yup - they lasted about 5 years - bit longer in some areas - basically they 're very much a Pashtun based group . As we've seen other Afghans have a limited tolerance for dominance by "outsiders" - however defined

"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it," George Santayana. I strongy recommend the two books mentioned by skridlov and TakwillaFlyboy:-

The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple

However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.

The Frontier Scouts by Charles Chenevix Trench sadly did not get the attention it merited from our leaders.

Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.

Even first taught to us as blinking Flight Cadets doing War studies at the Towers in the 60's.
" Never accede to militarily supporting political adventuring in Afghanistan,as the British Army learned to its cost in the last century,that it will never work"
I remember the metaphorical cheer that went up around the U.K. Defence Intelligence community in late '79 when the Soviets went in ,"Now they're for it!"
Little did we appreciate, or even conceive then, that it would be our politicians taking us in next..........

Agreed. 'A Million Bullets' is also a good read.

Agreed. Never should have tried/ Though I appreciate the objective of having a stable Afghanistan to bolster security. As hard as it is to swallow, leaving is the right thing. We could be there another 5, 10, or 20 years and not have a different result, except more casualties.

There's a great deal that could be said about Pakistan's involvement - but seldom is, at least as far as news coverage is concerned. The US government also continues its fan dance where Pakistan (ISI) culpability is concerned. Given that the Taliban's activity has now expanded into large scale conventional unit operations the sheer scale of munitions required to sustain it has grown massively. And yet I don't recall a single news item or documentary that attempts to account for the source, scale or routes of the related supply chain. Its source is Pakistan of course, notionally a US ally...

Up to the last week or so I assumed that the Tajiks would hold out, at least in the Panjshir, as they did last time the Taliban were in Kabul. But news reports suggest that some Tajik units are going over to the Taliban - and of course sealing the border into Tajikistan cuts off that source of support. There's a similar situation in western Afghanistan where the border crossing at Islam Quala was quickly taken and nearby Herat is probably soon to fall. At the moment Mazar is surrounded too. I wonder where General Abdul Rashid Dostum is these days? He was famous for running tanks over captured Talibs or cooking them in transport containers, so I doubt that they're going to welcome him if he decides to perform one of his about-face moves.

The parallels with the US withdrawal from Vietnam are remarkable. US troops withdraw leaving a "well equipped national army" to defend the state. Which army collapses in a matter of weeks.

AlJazeera is the only broadcast channel giving serious coverage to the situation with a few journalists still on the ground there.

Unfortunately this ongoing dilemma with Pakistani factions can't be sidestepped this time by concocting a few imaginary "Stealth Blackhawks"

Our former Foreign Secretary David Miliband was on Radio 4 this morning in his capacity as Head of the International Rescue refugees' charity (the name always makes me laugh). Anyway, he was on about the duty of Western countries to prevent Afghanistan's neighbouring states from becoming overwhelmed by refugees. He mentioned Pakistan as an example of a state needing help. Sadly, the interviewer didn't press the obvious point that maybe the Pakistani deep state should have thought about that while busily undermining everything the West was trying to achieve next door.

One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.. The Taliban who will be in the minority can only exert pressure over a town or village if they hold the upper hand, arming everyone in that village would soon put that right.. Mind you it wouldn't be nice to start with, but eventually some sort of peace would endure. ;)

:ok:

Tanks and artillery can upset that balance. We have seen that Stingers can counter air power.

Anti-tank missiles could level the playing field.

Sure seems that missionaries teaching love, forgiveness and turning the other cheek might be even more effective over time as well as a lot cheaper, if only they could live long enough.

Assymetric warfare anybody?
You can't " bomb the bastards back in to the stone age "when that's all they recognise and accept......

In fact many of the Taliban positively WANT to be back in 7th Century Arabia..................